Members Daily Post: 18/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Uttoxeter

2.00-

Jennys Surprise (hncp chase) 14,30 G3 9/1  S1   WON 11/1,  14.5 BFSP (as such qual on S1 11.00+ ) 

Smooth Steppter (m2) 14/1 S2  2nd 12/1 

2.35 – Mozo (m1) G3 4/1   UP 9/2 

3.05 – Druids Diamond (all hncps + m2) 14 ES G3 8/1  S3 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.40 – Article Fifty (NHF) 4/1

 

Wetherby 

1.40 –

Western Rules (all hncps + hncp hurdle + m1) 30  5/1 UP

Little Bruce (m1) I1 G3 11/1 S1 S2 S5  3rd 9/2 

Skipthescales (m1) H3 9/2  WON 9/2>3/1 

2.15 –

Doktor Glaz (all hncps + m1) H1 G3 11/2   2nd 

Can’t Pay Won’t Pay (all hncps) 14/1 S2 UP

Attention Please (all hncps) G1 14/1 S1 S2 UP

3.20 –

Get On the Yager (hncp chase + m1) H3 9/4

Wolf Sword (m2) H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4   S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

 

Cheltenham

1.50 –

Doing Fine (hncp chase) G1 5/1   S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Minella Rocco (m1 + m2) I1 H3 5/1  UP

2.25  – Kylemore Lough (all hncps + m2) 14,30 I3 11/2  UP

3.30 – Quarenta (m1 + m1) 25/1 S2

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/135, +121.5) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

2.35 Uttox – Mozo UP 9/2 

3.05 Uttox – Druids Diamond 

1.40 Weth – Skip The Scales  WON 9/2 > 3/1 (prob fair I declare that at 3s, i’m not sure ‘tipping’ price was around for long) 

 

Well it’s felt like an age since I flicked through section 1 and found some horses with these types of profiles that look like they may have a chance. We had the Ayr 25s poke who ran a decent 2nd and had a similar profile to these three, but they have been few and far between recently. The systematic advised strategies, collectively, are having their horror run, or are in the middle of it, I think, having had a decent first couple of months of the main winter season. It looks as though most strategies are having their losing runs all at once which is never ideal. But, that’s the way it goes with this approach and you can judge over-time whether that systematic approach suits you or not. With any luck results for 2017 to date, esp for S1, S2, S5 give you some confidence that the long term picture looks healthy enough.  Thankfully there is always hope and we could back 4 x 14/1+ winners in the next few days. Fingers crossed. Anyway, i’ll save any analysis for the results re-cap on Monday. But i’m quite aware the strategies are going through a rough patch, as they do. (still profitable since Oct 1st I think, if backing all 5 advised strategies combined, just once)

On to today’s three notes horses and I’m convinced that if you/we just used section 1 as a starting point and focused on horses with this kind of profile, you/we, would do just fine over time. Well, it worked for the flat, and my jumps ‘bet of the day’ had been doing ok, with eyes fixed on the types of horses above. But, my jumps ‘notes’ picking could do with stepping up a gear. All three of these have the same ingredients… they qualify in section one (so, a tick for the trainer behaviour), onto the horse… they are lightly raced, esp in handicaps|hurdles /unexposed/hope that one day there will be more to come, and they are doing a few things differently – as a reason for why they ‘may’ improve today. It’s then a case of working out whether you like the price and I have convinced myself I do…

Mozo... Honeyball can work wonders with this type and I always have ‘Man of Leisure’ in my mind who he bought a few years back having spotted him looking ‘fat’ (but running well) for a smaller yard. He got him hard fit and won 4 on the bounce I think, and then a few more after that. I suspect this horse may be moderate or he will bolt up like a 6/4 shot. I thought 4/1, 7/2 general, looked decent. I would want to see some strong market support and will be anxious if there isn’t any. The yard is going fine and may be about to hit top gear. Honeyball is 6/19,14p in the last two years when he moves horses in distance by 20% or more, either up or down. This one moves up in trip from his last run. Fitness won’t be a problem if he wants him fit. The horse is having only his fourth handicap hurdle run, runs for Honeyball for the first time (3/11 in last two years with new recruits) and wears a tongue tie for the first time. He was rated 97 on his first handicap hurdle and arrives here on 84. He won his NHF race here first time up for Pipe, but was later sold to a smaller yard. And now he is with AJH. This is a trainer upgrade for me, no doubt about that. He has the sort of profile that intrigues me. I’d have liked a bigger price but if I am right about this one, he could make 7/2 look very tasty. It is also a weak race with very few proven in conditions and not many unexposed ones in this. In I go.

Druids Diamond … a slightly different profile in that he’s run on the flat a fair bit and in truth looked moderate. But the fact he arrives here as top weight says all you need to know about the quality of this race. It is poor and won’t take much winning. He may not be very good of course but this is his first handicap hurdle run, he drops in class from his last run, gets softer ground which may well suit, Sean Bowen is booked, the headgear has been removed (interesting, may not work, but is ‘doing something different’)  and the yard is in form… trainer 2/8,3p the last 14 days. He is also 3/17,4p with handicap hurdle debutants. 3/11,4p since the start of 2016, +37. At 8/1 there was plenty there for me to have a go. He ‘could be anything’. He was sent off at 20s in his maiden/novice hurdles which tells you everything I think. Again another who I would like to see market support but he has had a couple of biggies go in, making handicap hurdle debut, so that may be irrelevant. He is hard fit and there are no excuses on paper at least. If he has any future in this sphere/any races in him, he should be going close against this lot.

Skip The Scales… This one is having his second run in a handicap hurdle, shaped with promise the last day and now steps up in trip. LTO here he ran as if he would relish this distance and 9/2 seemed worth chancing to find out. He ‘could’ have plenty in hand. He is a full brother to Universal Soldier who is a dour stayer and therefore it’s no shock that he runs like he wants a trip. This is his 3rd run after a break and Dowson keeps the ride. I think he may have had the choice between the two Kirby horses, or the trainer has put him on the one they think has the best chance. Maybe. Trainer/jockey are 3/15,8p, +19 in C4 handicap hurdles. He just ticks all those boxes really and I would be surprised if he didn’t run a good race here. He looks the most interesting and is one of the few really unexposed types in here.

We shall see how those three get on.

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Others… I will mention Little Bruce who is an S1 + S5 qualifier and I have thrown something at him.. just backing the one above only to see his bigger priced stablemate win would be painful… he is no forlorn hope and there is some money around… he is unexposed at the trip and there is a chance he hated heavy the last day. But, wading into horses that PU LTO is a dangerous game. But, that may be the excuse. That run may have tired him out for this though, we shall see. The jockey bookings suggest they fancy the other one but you never know. Western Rules is unexposed also but at 9/2 or so after 616 days off I was happy to leave him. I won’t fall of my seat if he wins well but given that break and no ratings pointers, I was happy to leave him. Knowing my luck I have picked the wrong unexposed one! But, that’s the reason why. 8s + is a different story. I thought Wolf Sword looked solid enough for the treble rated.

I won’t be able to leave Quarenta at that price given he is S2 and appears below on some Cheltenham pointers… the market suggests he is ‘off’ or there is an issue. He ran like a non stayer the last day but I don’t like the way he cut out. I won’t be going mad on him but he drops back in trip and won well two starts ago. The market can mean sod all with Jonjo.. I remember Eastlake winning for the stats this time last year at 40s or so, drifting out from 25s maybe, or his SP was 25s or so, I forget. Albeit he has a palpitating heart so connections never know when he is going to run well, all about how he feels as he comes down the hill! Quarenta may cause a shock, you never know.

That’s the lot for section 2

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

3.50 Weth – Mary Eleanor

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Cheltenham November Meeting 

Trainer Stats/Pointers / Handicap Micros x2 : READ HERE>>>

Day 2

Micro Qualifiers (from 2x micros in report above)

(all 14/1 or shorter as a guide, I wouldn’t dismiss bigger priced ones)

2.25 – (most of the field I think, maybe the odds ‘cap’ will guide…)

Days Of Heaven (m1)

Double Treasure (m1)

Kylemore Lough (m1)

Le Prezien (m1)

Mystifiable (m1)

Plaisir Damour (m1 + m2)

Romain De Senam (m1 + m2)

Splash of Ginge (m1)

Theinval (m1)

Viconte Du Noyer (m1)

 

3.00-

Connetable (m2)

Nuits Premier Cru (m2)

Thomas Campbell (m2)

 

3.30 –

Ahead of The Curve (m2)

Coup De Princeau (m2)

Quarenta (m2)

Red Indian (m2)

 

Trainer Pointers/Notes

Two nice winners on Day 1 from the starting points, let’s see what this lot throws up…

12.40 – Gamball / Apple’s Shakira

1.15 – Black Corton / West Approach

1.50 – Sizing Codelco / Three Faces West / Vicente

2.25 – Kylemore lough / Le Prezien / Roman De Senam / Starchitect / Viconte Du Noyer

3.00 – Dell Arca / Connetable / Solantentif

3.30 – Coup De Princeau  / Poker Play

4.00- Pineapple Rush

 

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Members’ Big Race Stats/Trends

 

Two of the races have much smaller fields than usual so I have left them. Below are some pointers for the BetVictor Gold Cup, we shall see how they hold up. I will also have a look at the 3.30 which has a big field and some stats/trends to get stuck into. There are no ‘tips’ as such, just the shortlists against the stats to use/ignore as you please…

 

2.25 Chelt : BetVictor Gold Cup

  • Did Not Run G2 LTO (or not dropped 1 class)
  • 0-1 Run previous 90 Days
  • 0-10 handicap chase runs
  • 0-10 handicap runs
  • 0-2 handicap wins
  • NOT GB Bred
  • Aged 9 or younger

 

Shortlist: Tully East / Le Prezien / Aqua Dude / Lake Takapuna 

We shall see if those stats hold up!

 

3.30 Chelt : to follow (if there are any stats)

  • Aged 5+
  • 0-3 runs this season
  • Top 2 at least once on last 3 starts
  • Had ran 2m5f + in career
  • 1-3 career wins
  • (to help with shortlisting, 10/10 have been sent off 16/1 or shorter, some biggies have gone close though)

 

‘Shortlist’: Coup De Princeau / Stamp Your Feet / Coole Cody / Vivas / Follow The Bear / The Mighty Don / Seymour Star 

Trainers: Nicholls (2/4) Henderson (1/4) : various others with one win, none on that ‘shortlist’

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VIDEO: Day 2

I tried to make this snappy (just about under 20 mins!) but it is a bit more race/horse focused….

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My own Cheltenham fancies, for what they are worth….

 

1.40 – Doing Fine / Vicente (free post tips, it being a c3+ 3m+ hncp chase)

2.25 – Le Prezien / Starchitect / Tully East 

3.30 – Coup De Pinceau / Quarenta 

 

With any luck they can give me a run for my money, ‘interest bets/Saturday afternoon wagers’ on the latter two races.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    You’ve chopped the bottom off your Wetherby quals
    cheers
    mike

    titus_a_duxass 17/11/17 5:33 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, so I have! No idea what happened there. Cheers. Josh

      Josh 17/11/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • 13.50 Cheltenham

    The last 9 winners followed the following rules

    Age – 5-y-o to 9-y-o
    Official Rating – 121 to 148
    Horse Runs last 90 days – 0 or 1

    This leaves us with a shortlist of 2 horses THREE FACES WEST and PREMIER BOND

    I like the look of PREMIER BOND (1pt each way 6/1 Paddy Power), as Three Faces West usually needs his first run. He does prefer smaller fields and record in fields of 11 runners or less reads: 242113117 this improves to 117211 on LH tracks.

    David Peat 18/11/17 7:41 AM Reply


  • Morning,
    Can I ask a question?
    What is meant by a horse running out of the handicap?
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 18/11/17 8:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Andy, its means that the handicapper has allotted the horse less weight than the minimum of 10st for jump racing, I think it’s 8st 7lbs for flat racing.
      Example if you look at the racing post race card for the 2.35 at Uttoxeter, at the bottom it has the following,

      LONG HANDICAP Outrageous Romana 9-10, Anginola 9-9. which are the weights they should have, but 10st is the minimum as you see on the racecard.
      A jockey with an allowance is still allowed that allowance, so Outragrous Romana will carry 10st minus jockey allowance 0f 5lbs
      hope you get my drift.

      Greg Phillips 18/11/17 9:38 AM Reply


      • Thanks Greg,
        Can I now ask?
        Depending on the horse’s profile,is this a good thing or is it a case of the handicapper rating the horse as a no-hoper?
        Andy

        Andy Ness 18/11/17 10:02 AM Reply


        • Not good, as it is carrying more weight than the handicapper has allotted it. A way around it is to put a claiming jockey on it and take some weight off so that it is nearer its allotted mark. It could also be an improving horse and so be able to cope with carrying the extra weight. You have to look at the profile of the particular horse to understand what is the case? If it is an older horse it is likely not improving.

          martin colwell 18/11/17 10:42 AM Reply


        • That’s a tricky and subjective question, on a horse by horse, race by race basis. It isn’t a regular occurrence..
          It isn’t a case of the handicapper rating them as ‘no hopers’ – their rating is their rating, they can’t help that so to speak…

          If you take the 1.50 – it is lopsided because Jonjo’s is so far ahead of the rest on handicap ratings… being out of the handicap is a problem for most of the others IF he runs to his mark of 166 in a handicap.. if he has the class and does so, then they could all be in trouble. But if you took him on and said he won’t win from that mark say, then being out of the handicap is a bit irrelevant for the rest, in this example. Well, that’s how I view it.
          Doing Fine should have 2lb less on his back, 9-12, but as 10 is the limit he carries 2lb more than he should. I’d be shocked if come the end of this race that 2lbs has made the difference as to his chance.

          It really is on a race by race, horse by horse basis… depends on the size of the horse as well… some horses do better running at the foot of the weights in a higher class because they are not big enough to carry big weights at the class below. and as such being at the bottom/a few pounds out of the handicap, may be preferable to being top weight in a lower class say. And as touched on, you can use a claim to off-set any negatives.

          Of course, those not using a claim to do so is intriguing..either suggesting the horse may not have a chance, or they don’t think it will matter. If a horse has a heap of weight in hand, is 10-20lb ahead of the handicapper say, then it may not matter one bit.

          That’s my view anyway. It doesn’t happen that often and as with anything you are weighing up positives/negatives against the price.
          I may take a look at some stats though and see if anything crops up, if I can research such things as ‘being out the handicap’.

          Josh

          Josh 18/11/17 11:19 AM Reply


  • 1.50… talked myself into Doing Fine (having been on the fence in the video I am now a bit more bullish) and Vicente… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/11/17/free-daily-post-181117-upd1/

    Josh 18/11/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • Doing Fine has been Taylor’d!

    Ireland has some tasty racing today, great beginners chase in store!
    Sumos Novios is interesting as usual when he runs (is tender so runs seldom)…He is very good fresh and a brilliant jumper. Stay the trip and has some nice form…

    Drifting a lot mind you…but he’s done that before and won. It would take a decent performance to win this from top weight, but he could be upto it….

    Got to admit, its not a confident bet, i will be half pointing him just.

    1.45 could also be an informative race going forward, quite a few horses from the big boys in it..

    Jack 18/11/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh.

    It looks as though you have missed off the strategy numbers from the Cheltenham races in section 1.

    Cheers.

    Matt M

    Matt M 18/11/17 12:27 PM Reply


    • Hi Matt, so I have, thanks for that… looks like one S2 qualifier, doubt the rest will drift as required but you never know! Good spot, cheers. Josh

      Josh 18/11/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • Paddy rides a masterclass on Perfect Caandidate,strong in finish again,still the best in business!

    gearoid180468 18/11/17 2:03 PM Reply


    • Bloody wonderful ride, the once time i didn’t want him to haha…Nick posted up pre race about the winner, good shout given ground had gone.. would have preferred Vicente to get up, but he has run his heart out in far from ideal ground- lack of run/ground/paddy’s ride has put his jumping under the pump over last two. Were paddy not as aggressive there early, he loses that. Superb.

      Fergal just won at Uttoxeter though , 14.5 BFSP… we know what that means! Wallop.

      Josh 18/11/17 2:10 PM Reply


  • Fergal on fire right now! I will live with getting 2nd to the qualifier.

    Nick Mazur 18/11/17 2:14 PM Reply


  • We were due a good Saturday after last 2,yes Paddy was driving from a good way out,would have gone differently with another pilot.aggresive ride and foot perfect jumping won the day

    gearoid180468 18/11/17 2:17 PM Reply


    • You Never answered my observations about Paddy Brennan, Gearoid180468. No doubt in my mind he is a very good jockey and certainly in top ten British and Irish jockeys. But why has good trainers like P.Hobbs, P. Nicholls, N Twiston Davies and T.George dumped him when he has been retained either as number one jockey or top conditional ( for P.Hobbs). Something has to be wrong about him but i have no idea what it is.

      Roddo 18/11/17 11:58 PM Reply


      • Good evening Roddo,
        Can’t say with any certainty why Brennan split with Hobbs,Nicholls and NTD,but as regards Tom George I don’t think they ever really had a formal arrangement,and is still usually first choice when George has double entries or horses at 2 courses.I think things came to a head because Brennan had strong ties with FOB and Tizzard and couldn’t guarantee him that commitment to first refusal,Heskin probably has a retainer now with George.Brennan at 36 probably has 3 or 4 years left at the top of his game and its no coincidence that the upturn in Fergal O Briens yard has come with the arrival of Paddy,together with the better standard of horses,he is an integral part of the team.I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as assistant trainer there at some stage

        gearoid180468 19/11/17 10:05 PM Reply


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