Free Daily Post: 16/11/17 (complete)

TIPS

3.30 Ludlow – The Happy Chappy – 1 point win – 13/2 7/1 (general) WON 10/1  2017 Total: 17/155, +102.5 

13/2 seems a couple of points too big to my eyes. This unexposed chaser is in the ‘could be anything’ category, which as always could include ‘could not be good enough’ for today’s assignment. But, he hasn’t done anything wrong and you suspect if he was trained by Fergal O’Brien say, he may be half this price. This is quite a tight handicap where you could give a chance to most, and if some of those who are seemingly out of form bounce back to life, it could be very competitive. I don’t need to worry about his form, well-being, or fitness. Having watched his last race he is a superb jumper and with any luck that can take him far. It also looks like he has a turn of gears which is no bad thing around here. He races prominently the last day and I hope Schofield is aggressive with him. It may transpire that he isn’t good enough come the business end but he won’t lack for stamina. Just a class/ability question, but on what he has done you can’t say he won’t be good enough. In that scenario you want a price and in the context of this race I thought 13/2 was fair. I should get a run for my money, at least until a few from home. Clearly there are questions as to how good that last race was, and it was run at a crawl for the most part, but to a point I am guessing. He is entitled to line up here and he should run his race. Worth a go for me.

Pace…well he will be up there. Miami Present can lead but again has been doing so in small fields, and Aunty Ann can be up there. Caulfields V can but he never went a yard the last day and has younger legs to contend with here. And maybe Paddy B will be more aggressive on Petite Power.

The dangers…

Petite Power…caught the eye the last day and is entitled to go very close here. He is unexposed over extended trip, the headgear returns, and he arrives fit and in form. I do wonder if he will be able to hold his position around here and whether he may get out-paced at a crucial stage. If he does’t then he will go very close. But at 3s it was easy enough in my own mind to leave him. Were he 6s+ then a different story. Clearly not a shock winner.

Cernunnos hits a couple of my Members’ Club strategies (Tom George Handicap Chasers here the starting point) and maybe he could bounce back from the last day. My head says no but something is nagging at me. He is inconsistent and in truth looks a C4 animal at best over fences. He can race a bit far back and you just don’t know what you will get. I think the ground may have gone against him the last day, or was an odd kind of going. And he may well prefer a flatter track. He has bits and pieces of form that may give him a chance and any George chaser here should be feared. He wasn’t ticking enough boxes for me to ‘tip’ him though and in general I don’t like wading in with seemingly out of form chasers. Always exceptions though.

Aunty Ann is interesting enough… she relished the step up the last day but Worcester doesn’t take too much jumping, the cut in the ground is a slight niggle, as is going RH which is an unknown over fences. Over hurdles she tended to jumps out to the left on the odd occasion. 10s may be fair but for one reason or another I wasn’t convinced. Her jumping wasn’t as good as the selection the last day for me either. We know what happens now!!

By The Boardwalk may go well.. he was just a bit too poor the last day for me but maybe he needed the run. The yard is going well. I just thought he was open to anything with more in hand/open to progress, and there are a few of those in here. If they all turn out to be moderate he could have a say. Some of his placed form may be good enough. That last run niggles at me though and he can be out-battled in a finish. He is also a hold up horse so always needs a bit of luck. I talked myself out of him.

Right I think that will do, for fear of going through the whole field. I am happy with the selection and wasn’t overly keen to be on anything else. We shall see if I have that right.

If he runs as well as yesterday’s second I won’t have any complaints, but going one place better would be welcome!

Josh

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.10 Taunt – Mac Bella (12/1< guide, 16/1 winner yesterday)

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • By The Boardwalk Ludlow Thursday 15:30 1pt e/w-Not much of a write up since a bit shattered but given we know he likes the course, distance and ground having finished 2nd here last year of technically the same mark. Trainer is in cracking form with everything of his running well. I missed the 14s earlier but he still looks a solid bet. This is the jockeys only run of the day. (14,64, 25p +17.78 in the past 3 years when just having the one run at the track and riding for Bailey)

    Nick Mazur 15/11/17 10:05 PM Reply


  • Nothing on the jumps front grabs me tomorrow so I am having a bet on 2 at lowly Southwell

    1.45 Razin Hell 10/1 1pt win
    2.15 Helen Sherbet 8/1 1 pt win
    1/2 point win double
    Ben Curtis has ridden Razin Hell at Southwell 5 times for 3 wins and the horse has an impressive 7/16 course wins,trainer has had a winner and the price looks fair to my eyes.
    The Burke/Curtis combo is very profitable overall and both have good profit figures at track,HS ran out of steam over 7f lto so maybe able to nick this if front running or prominent early,on a track that favours front runners,the last furlong is usually a real slog and if she does lead may be hard to catch.

    gearoid180468 16/11/17 1:13 AM Reply


  • Going with Our Kid in the 2.15. Fahey has a strong record in November with his 2 year olds at Southwell 5/9,6 places since 2014. Sires horses have a win strike rate of 13% over course & distance. Horse won its first start on the all weather at Wolves on debut. 4 runs on turf havent been great but the other run on aw had promise and was over 7f so this looks like an AW animal and is now nicely handicapped. Has been nibbled at over night, I got 12s but now into 10/1, 9/1 general.

    jamesp 16/11/17 8:06 AM Reply


  • HI Micky
    Glad you landed the e/w acca
    Acker Bilk was never 33/1 maybe my e-mail was a bit confusing
    but the 4th favourite in the race was 33/1 so to me that meant the first three in the betting had a bunch in hand and were good prospects of the places

    The odds I took early doors were 7-1 ACKER BILK
    5-1 ILLUSIONAL 5-2 MINDS EYE and 7/4 BENECHENKO

    so for A £40 E/W ACCA I picked up £388.00 so won £308 for a total stake
    of £80 which is nearly 4/1 on total stake

    The key to this type of bet is 8-11 runners 4th favourite is bigger than 10/1
    and the one you pick from the first three left in the betting is odds against
    and has form good enough to warrant a play

    un raced hype horses are not part of the deal
    if you look at the place odds on betfair Acker bilk was 2/5 to get placed
    but I had him in the acca at 7/5 so a no brainer value
    obviously to get the better place odds you are virtually writing off the win
    part of your acca but when you are getting 4/1 for 4 places you don’t mind

    so you are getting value for the bet forgetting the win side
    but if the first couple do win you are in a very strong position.

    if you are trying this type of bet always always bet bog
    with the firm that offers the best combined odds
    as sps are shorter in 95% of case
    having a 1/10 in the last leg was just what we wanted because we only needed ours to place
    and at 7/1(sp6/1) we got 7/5 a place when its true odds were 2/5

    today is interesting and if you look on odds checker there are several races that nearly have the right shape
    the 2.50 at Clonmell has a odds on favourite in Denaria des Obeaux
    then 3 horses under 10 and then any price you like about the rest.

    but there is no value as the 4th favourite is under 10/1 so it indicates there are 4 possible place horses rather than three so if you back e/w against the fav you could miss out
    add to the equation the fact that it is a novice chase where a fall for anything you play on
    is a factor.

    with this type of multiple e/w bet the shorter the fav the better
    if you get a 1/10 the two 8/1’s followed by 6 40/1 plus horses then you are in business

    peter 16/11/17 9:43 AM Reply


    • Peter

      Great write up thanks for that. I had 5 ew as a starter so will go forward with it.

      Many thanks.

      Mike

      mickeydee 16/11/17 10:19 AM Reply


  • Josh do you no if the members message has gone out this morning have not received mimd

    paul bailey 16/11/17 10:27 AM Reply


  • Hi Peter, thats a really good write-up, any chance of putting up an example race if there is one today please so it becomes clear to me?

    Thanks, Paul

    Paul 16/11/17 10:27 AM Reply


    • Hi Paul
      yes the 1.25 Ludlow fits the bill but to late to play.

      they go 6/5 cockney wren
      5/2 Oscar Rose 7/2 Sunshade
      and the rest are 16/1 or bigger.

      OSCAR ROSE was the obvious horse to play e/w
      as he has solid bumper form and experience over hurdles
      and he looks a shoo in for a place bar a fall
      Sunshade the third fav is trained by Nick Henderson
      and has only run once hacking up in a bumper
      but first time over hurdles doesn’t cry certain place
      as who knows how the horse will jump.

      at 9am Ladbrokes were going 4/1 Oscar which was a playable price
      but now he is 5/2 the value has gone.

      although Oscar has shortened from 4/1 to 5/2 I don’t think he has any more chance of winning than when he was 4/1 as the favourite has stayed solid and it is Sunshade who has drifted

      the horse still looks good for the place but place odds pay 1/2
      when at 4/1 he would have paid 4/5 place wise.

      the 2.50 at clonmel has 4 horses under 10/1 and the rest rags
      so if one of those 4 became a non runner the race would be worth looking at.

      in the 6.55 at Chelmsford they go 11/10 the fav
      7/2 final test 8/1 bubble and squeak
      and 14/1 and bigger the rest
      but there are 14 runners so traffic problems can make a mockery of these races
      and bubble and squeak is drawn in stall 10
      which is out wide at Chelmsford
      so although 8/1 looking tempting at 8/5 a place
      there are two many runners round a turning track
      and the horse is drawn out wide
      I am reluctant to play with fields bigger than 11 unless
      the form is so strong place wise that they look very good to place(minds eye yesterday
      there was a big field but he looked a stone bonking place horse.

      the are plenty of races on the a/w that look like they fit the bill
      but at Southwell for instance never include a horse however strong
      it looks on paper as the kickback is more than any other track and some horses who look
      certain to be placed pre race throw in the towel.
      for southwell the horse has to have a decent run on the course
      when it didn’t lead.

      A horse who has previous won on the course leading all the way is a risky animal
      because when it lead it didn’t have to have sand kicked in its face.
      so next time he may get in behind resent the kickback and drop right out

      in big fields at Lingfield,Wolverhapton Southwell and Kempton
      they have to go round a bend so traffic problems can scupper your place.
      remember in flat racing we are usually talking 1 to 2 lengths
      so if your horse is forced wide of can’t get through the gaps it can run below expectations.

      You have to play each race on its merits.
      if only one race is worth playing then you only play an e/w single

      That is the mistake I have made in the past found the right race
      and because I want to double or treble up gone for a e/w double with
      with Oscar at 5/2 and one from the 2.50 at Clonmel even though I know
      the 2.50 doesn’t fit the MO.

      bottom line you are looking for horse who you think will have to
      be shot not to get in the first 3
      the win side will take care of itself

      peter 16/11/17 12:49 PM Reply


      • I think that sums it up
        Oscar did his job and was placed but went off at 7/4 so only 1.35 a place rather than 1.80
        in the 2.50 at Clonmel 3 of the first 4 in the betting were placed but as feared the 4th fav was the one who placed not the Harrington Horse who would have been my selection who hit the deck

        so a no bet that loses is a big victory
        because if I played with the doubts I had its when you beat yourself up

        if you can do your research 100% and come with a logical play then win or lose you can
        stay focused its when you have reservations and play anyway
        that it gets to you

        peter 16/11/17 3:24 PM Reply


        • 4.00 Ludlow dead 8 runners
          Pheonix dawn 7/2 has the benefit of races over hurdles
          but 4 horses are under 10/1 in the betting and
          3 of the rags are making their debut(could be anything)
          so this isn’t a certain place horse.(not a certainty that the first 3 places will be from the first 4 in the betting either)
          very tempting to get sucked in because he is 2nd fav
          and has the experience but at 1.70 a place is he as good as Oscar at 1.80
          in my book no, so no play.

          peter 16/11/17 3:37 PM Reply


  • Sorry sp2a message

    paul bailey 16/11/17 10:28 AM Reply


    • Hi Paul, yep it has been sent/received my end. I have just forwarded it to you. (your googlemail account)
      Odd that you haven’t got today’s if you have been receiving them normally. Maybe it has gone into a different folder or something? Josh

      Josh 16/11/17 10:37 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh,

        I did not receive any member mail yet.

        Marcel

        Marcel 16/11/17 11:35 AM Reply


        • That isn’t my service Marcel, Ian may respond on here, or you can use their contact form if you are having issues…. http://www.sp2a.co.uk/Home/Contact

          tips are also posted online and when signing up you would have got a welcome email with the details in etc.
          Josh

          Josh 16/11/17 11:37 AM Reply


          • Makes sense now why I donot receive them 🙂

            Marcel 16/11/17 11:45 AM Reply


            • Yep, I don’t send emails out for my Members’ club unless an emergency etc, all via the blog. Josh

              Josh 16/11/17 11:52 AM Reply


  • Paul – original sent at 8.53am have just re-sent to you, not aware of any bounce-backs or delivery issues and don’t forget also accessible online. Drop me a mail if you need codes. (sometimes after a few months if we mail @ same time each day can find its way to spam).

    Regards

    Ian

    ian@sp2a 16/11/17 10:38 AM Reply


  • Many thanks lan/ josh

    paul bailey 16/11/17 10:41 AM Reply


  • No worries, I always encourage people to “yell” if not received by 10am as what we know about we can try to sort.

    The “ether” (world wide web) is full of black holes, as an example you can send a gmail to someone in the same house sat next to you and it may bounce off 3-4 servers in the most far flung places you can imagine, in theory takes nano seconds but it only needs 1 server to be down somewhere and you won’t get the email.

    One common fault is with servers in different timezones; where may be skeleton staff and if problems occur 3am their time, loads of stuff can vanish in to the ether…literally!

    Ian SP2A 16/11/17 10:46 AM Reply


  • Terrific result yesterday from Ian and a couple of gudn.s from Josh’s that i couldn’t get around to. I’ve been to busy seeing off some old squaddie’s to various destinations around the world and our own country. It’s amazing how many took overseas exchange promotions and have done so much better than those of us who stayed in blighty. I could have transferred out to Oz or New Zealand as an instructor……..but thought i’d come home and see my mam once more….a bit homesick back then…Life took over and i never left. Took 22 years on army emergency reserve instead….lol
    Anyway the Horse racing is better here…..So back to making a fortune…hahaha.

    Good luck all.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 16/11/17 10:52 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Tony, sounds like you had an enjoyable (if that’s the right word) and emotional few days.
      Ah, don’t live with regrets.. yep focus on the racing haha, you can’t what we have anywhere else, think of all those C6 handicaps at Brighton during the height of summer, as an example!! 🙂 You should book some trips out to go and see x,y,z, wherever they are. Life is too short not to, a squaddie reunion grand tour!
      A credit to your country Tony,
      Josh

      Josh 16/11/17 10:58 AM Reply


      • LOL….I’ve ripped it up everywhere Josh….had many a fally over!!
        Jumping is my love though…I used to love the flat at Aintree….and Chester where those who could’nt afford to get it would pass a bet over the wall….hahaha…
        I used to love the dogs too…..Many a fight in the old d ays…when someone would disrupt a race with a chop if the wrong dog was winning…or aniseed balls….great watching the fights. White City in Liverpool used to take clothes…..True!! and many the fella i’ve seen going home in just his ‘Kecks and Vest’ lol.

        I’m sure we could all write a good book. I’m sure Titus….would have some great ale tales…lol

        Yep!.. we had a good sad time Josh….Thanks.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 16/11/17 12:54 PM Reply


  • Josh, looks like there’s something amiss with the link to Ben’s offer.

    Neil 16/11/17 1:36 PM Reply


    • Ah cheers Neil, so there was! Fine in the email but not sure what happened there. Thanks for that,
      Josh

      Josh 16/11/17 1:45 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. Got there unlike yesterday. I seem to have picked up an annoying habit of finding 4ths with my e/w bets.

    Nick Mazur 16/11/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • great call Josh and 10/1 sp
      so even better

      peter 16/11/17 3:43 PM Reply


  • The Happy Chappy – sums me up ! Still recovering from seeing Josh on Racing UK Tipstar advert as well
    Nice tipping was clear ew selection on GG and u made persuasive case to get on

    finalflight 16/11/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • I need to pay for Racing UK just to see this advert LOL

      Nick Mazur 16/11/17 3:44 PM Reply


      • cheers. haha the first one really isn’t worth watching… poor lighting, scruffy beard, and a shocking tip. But I’ll get there!

        Josh 16/11/17 3:57 PM Reply


  • Great work Josh, I think we agreed there was something of the “could be anything” tag about the horse as seemed to be a small field runner. Clearly got an engine and one that may have scope to progress as long as handicapper allows leeway for fact it beat some horses running below par and a melee 3 out, sadly too often they get excessive penalties and have to wait 12 months to get back to a decent mark.

    Trainer is very interesting, I recall she had a great ROI stat backing blind a few years back then almost vanished, can clearly get one right if horse is good enough.

    Well Done

    ian@sp2a 16/11/17 3:50 PM Reply


    • Cheers Ian, yep he was very unexposed, and generally in a bunch of more exposed chasers, many of whom who just looked out of sorts, I like to give those types a good look. Thought 13/2 was fair given his profile so 10s a bonus!
      Small field? had won a 9 runner handicap hurdle, and was only his 3rd chase, so hard to say what his ‘ideal chase’ conditions were. Probably run him in small fields to gain experience (2x winning pointer though, according to RUK) , and the way he jumped LTO suggested no problem. Probably jumped the best of that lot today, which given inexperience is quiet something. A more patient ride than anticipated but that has won it, superb judgement. Kept him wide out of trouble.

      Josh 16/11/17 4:22 PM Reply


      • yeah he has an interesting cv. Had 2 x P2P wins for Jack Barber over 2 and 1/2 and 3 miles and then had one run for PFN where he came 3rd at Hereford. PFN then sold him and I did wonder why, then it clicked as I have a member who told me about this scenario / previous owner.

        Was owned by Graham Roach, big benefactor of PFN had some top horses, Mr Roach died last year and seems family wanted most/all horses dispersed and the Humphreys got him. Could be one to follow, did look at him this morning; but thought it would lack experience against some of those but as you say given a superb ride..

        Definitely one to track.

        ian@sp2a 16/11/17 4:51 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh keep them coming and as i will be at Cheltenham for the next few days looking forward to your tips !!!
    Cheers
    Kevin

    kevhol123 16/11/17 4:12 PM Reply


    • I’ll try my best Kevin, 2x 3m+ handicap chases to attack, no doubt a look at BetVictor if time also. They have been paid for in any case haha.

      Josh 16/11/17 4:23 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh, and a big thank you.

    Michael Manning 16/11/17 6:06 PM Reply


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