Free Daily Post: 15/11/17 (complete/TIP!)

TIPS

1.45 Bangor – ACTINPIECES – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1… no complaints there, run a decent race and when hitting the front I thought may stay there. One of the main dangers wins, no shock there..shame he took back to chasing so well! Decent run for my money, got the price. Moving on. Nice for one to run well!

 

I am sat here scratching my head as to how the hell this one is 8/1. I can’t work out why she is twice the price of the Skelton horse who may get a fright from these rather bigger hurdles! Albeit he is entitled to run his race but 4s seems short. He could win. Anyway, back to the selection…as always it is about price and she is the one that leaps off the page as being too big here. She arrives in form having won well LTO, is unexposed enough in handicap chases (2/4), does have a touch of class (a neck second in a C1 Novice hurdle at Cheltenham,April meeting), stays, soft is no problem, and is generally consistent. And she is fit. The price is just wrong. Often when this happens I have probably missed something but in terms of analysing her chance against race conditions, the oppo and in the context of her price, I don’t think I have. She can be held up or race prominently and I hope they pick the latter. There is a bit of pace to aim at which I think should fold. We picked Valadom to win this last year who made all as expected, but I don’t think there is a make all winner lurking today. We shall see.

Of the rest… well clearly Potters Legend or the Tom George horse can/maybe will, win this. But there is no value in their prices to my eyes. The former looks as though he has a nice chase or two in him and maybe this is his year. He is usually held up out the back and he may get out-paced/hit the odd fence. I won’t be shocked if he wins this well but at 3s or so I can leave him. I backed him a couple of times last year I think when ‘running on’ late…he probably should have gone closer at the Festival. The George horse is inexperienced and his yard has been threatening to kick into gear for a couple of weeks. If this one is fit he is entitled to go well, but he will need to step up. This is no small field C3 novice handicap chase. Again, I won’t fall off my seat if he wins but his price isn’t generous enough for me given the odd question (will he be fit, how will he handle this environment…were he 6s+, a different story) Sir Mangan is interesting but not at 4s. He has been hurdling a little while and a chance he is ponderous at his fences. I generally don’t like backing chasers who have been hurdling for a time or vice versa. But, he has chase form in the book which entitles him to have a say and team Skelton could run the yard cat at the moment and it would win.

I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another.

8s seems an insult to the chances of Actinpieces. So, that’s the play.

GL if you follow me in!

That’s the lot on the ‘tipping’ front.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

H Fry Mares (10/1< best)

3.35 Exet – Rosemary Russet

Pam Sly (any odds)

1.45 Bang  – Actinpieces

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

12.40 Bang – Agamemmon UP

Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1 or shorter)

12.40 Bang – Jayo Time DNQ

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

12.40 Bang – Just Geordie (12/1<) 2nd 

1.45 Bang – Straidnahanna (12/1<)

12.50 Exet – Present Times (12/1< guide) WON 16/1 (26.00 BFSP)

1.25 Exet – The Gipper (12/1< guide)

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That’s the lot for today.
Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • GOLF BETS RSM CLASSIC

    Webb Simpson 1 point ew 1/5 7 22/1 CO Plenty of 22/1 around with different terms

    Was not going to have a bet in the RSM but could not let Webb go off at 22/1 unbacked for this is not the most competitive tournament and he has good form on both courses.

    colin leafe 15/11/17 8:47 AM Reply


  • Josh there is a 3m class 2 chase at Bangor mate.

    Nick Mazur 15/11/17 8:55 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, i’ll start with that one!!

      Josh 15/11/17 8:59 AM Reply


  • Re-posted from the Member’s post last night since the free one wasn’t up yet:

    Small profit today from a couple of runners which went close.

    Jayo Time Bangor Wednesday 12:40 1pt e/w-I want to take a chance on Jayo Time here at a big price here. He was rated as 137 only 18 months and was competitive off the mark. In 4 chase runs since his mark has dropped to 118 the last 2 of which were without cheekpieces which return tomorrow. With Richard Patrick’s 5lb claim he is technically running off a mark of 113. Kerry Lee is flying with 2 of her last 4 runners winning and 7 of her last 9 runners finishing no worse than 4th. Richard Patrick is also flying with 3 wins from his last 5 rides. This is his time of the year with 2 wins and a place from 4 runs in November. He is 3/10, 7p in class 4 handicaps. He is 0/12 in fields of 12+ so a number of his recent runs can be excused and the smaller field will suit much better. If he is remotely back to his old form he should hose up here.
    Presented Ayr Wednesday 12:30 1pt e/w-Presented looks a solid bet here. He has twice placed in class 3 chases and is only 5lbs worse off for those efforts. This looks an easier race. He drops down into a class 4 here. He has a 1st and a close 3rd from 3 tries over course and distance. He won’t mind how much of a slog it is tomorrow. Should be able to either lead or race prominently and I would be disappointed if he doesn’t at least make the frame (cue 4th). Trainer could be in better form but at least her last 4 runners have all ran OK (3244) and she is 3/7, 4p in handicap chases at the track in the past 2 years.
    Minellacelebration Bangor Wednesday 13:45 1pt e/w-I looked through the race and I have considerable question marks about the front five in the market here. I have no idea why the selection is 3 times the price of the favourite considering he was ahead of him at Chepstow and better off at the weights (not to mention the fact that Potters Cross had won on his previous two re-appearance runs). He wasn’t disgraced at Cheltenham in what looked like an extremely good race on paper. He is the only runner in the field to have won a class 2 and is only 2lbs above his last winning mark. Trainer could be in better form but 4 of her last 5 runners which went of 10/1 or less placed so she is in better form than it looks like. Should be up there with the pace.

    Lastly I have had a small £5 e/w bet on Clondaw Bisto in the opener at Exeter given the form of his last race has worked out well with the 3rd and 5th winning but I cant tip him given his trainer’s form.

    Nick Mazur 15/11/17 8:57 AM Reply


  • looks a good day for e/w multiples

    Acker Bilk 5.15 4th fav is 33/1 and looks solid place
    Illusional 4.15 4th fav is 28/1 again looks solid
    Benechenko 3.55 4th fav is 10/1 and the selection has solid form
    Minds eye 1.50 4th fav is 25/1 and Mindseye has solid placed form large field but should be a shoo in for the place

    I will be shocked if any of them is out of the frame so an e/w acca looks a very safe bet
    and who knows if the first two win it gives you massive leverage to lay off

    if the first three are placed lay Acker bilk in the place market at about 1.4
    for an assured profit
    so although a 4 horse acca you only need the first three to hit the frame to win

    peter 15/11/17 10:01 AM Reply


    • Peter

      Well done on your Acca don’t where you got 33s on Acker Bilk, I had a wee touch so thanks.

      Mike

      mickeydee 15/11/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • hi Josh ,
    Do you have a list of all the micro angles / systems you are running at present ?
    how long will you run them for ?
    cheers

    jon egen 15/11/17 10:33 AM Reply


  • Josh

    Tip is 1.45 Bangor not 1.50

    Mike

    mickeydee 15/11/17 10:34 AM Reply


    • Hi is so confident about the tip he is wiling to give them all a five minute head start Mike!

      Nick Mazur 15/11/17 10:35 AM Reply


      • Some of the horses I back wouldn’t win even with a five minute start!!!

        peter 15/11/17 10:44 AM Reply


        • haha, so it is. Cheers Mike!! Yep, i’ve felt a bit like that in the last week Peter! On we go.

          Josh 15/11/17 10:48 AM Reply


          • With ACKER BILK in my e/w acca
            have to be confident.(brainless?)

            maybe at the end of the day wont be a stranger on the shore any more

            peter 15/11/17 12:50 PM Reply


            • Boom Boom! One for the oldies. The now deceased Acker worked with both Sooty, Emu and Keith Harris and Orville at his prime.

              martin colwell 15/11/17 1:18 PM Reply


              • Don’t mention Emu to Michael Parkinson

                peter 15/11/17 1:35 PM Reply


          • Josh

            As Nick says if your TIP had started 5 mins sooner you would have won. ha Ha,

            Mike

            mickeydee 15/11/17 5:14 PM Reply


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