Members Daily Post: 15/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr

12.30 – Buffalo Ballet (m1 + m2) ES+ I3 5/1 S3A  S5 UP

1.35 – Another Mattie (m1 + m2 + m2) ES+ 13/2 S3A UP

2.10 –

Paper Roses (all hncps + hncp hurdle + m1) 11/1 S2 2nd 25/1 

Yeats Baby (all hncps) 20/1 S2 UP

Presenting Rose (m1) ES+ 16/1 S2 S3A UP

 

Bangor

1.45 – Sir Mangan (m1) 14 H1 I3 4/1   WON 9/2 

2.50 –

Midnight Tour (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 4/1 S4  3rd 7/1 

Loverboy (m1) 14 15/2  UP

 

Exeter

12.50 –

Alber D’Olivate (all hncps) ES I3 G3 13/2 S3  UP 

Trans Express (m1) ES+ H3 I1 10/1  S2  S3A  S5  UP

2.00- Tea Time Fred (hncp chase + m2) 16/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/134, +122.5)

NOTES

2.10 Ayr – Paper Roses – 2nd 25/1… ahhhh, that was painful viewing…mainly as she tanked through that race and was obvious she would run well…wasn’t until they turned for home that my eyes clocked Hughes, clear he had a double handful also…was hoping nothing in tank but alas there was. Bumped into one there. Damn. This one looked interesting at 11s/12s… long suffering members may remember Hartforth winning here for the same connections last December. He was 25/1 in the morning, drifted to 50/1 SP, name your price BFSP (140 odd I think)… and won. That was exciting, even for change. D Whillans hasn’t had a winner from his last 46 runners or so which would be a mild concern and reason for wanting a price. But he will generally have mediocre horses many of whom may be in the grip of the handicapper. And enough have gone close enough. You do wonder how yards like this survive… it is 276 days since his last winner. Gulp. This one will put that right 🙂 Whillans is 6/30,10p with handicapper hurdlers returning 60+ days off the track when young Callum is riding them. +84 (inc that 50/1). He can ready them if he wants so I can’t be put off by the days off, esp given the price. The horse is unexposed, having only her second handicap start and was in ok form when last seen at Perth. Her best non-handicap runs, in a bumper and a novice hurdle, were in soft/heavy, and it gives hope that she may relish these conditions. If she is fit I saw no reason why she couldn’t go close here and at 11s I was happy to play.

At the prices she looked the most interesting to me.

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Others… of the rest, of those 6/1+, I did think Another Mattie and Albert D’Olivate looked interesting enough to my subjective eyes.

As always, GL with any bets.

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An Idea… A Racing To Profit ‘Tipping League’…

This idea is in the early stages of development but I wondered if there was any appetite for a private RTP tipping league, members only. I can set up a private league via Betref I think. I thought it may be good fun but I won’t bother if there isn’t a fair bit of interest. I know Geegeez has one, with around 100 regular players I think. There could be monthly prizes (prob cash, £25-£50, maybe) of sorts, with an expectation that you would put up a minimum of 20 ‘naps’ per month say. There could be one winner for most points profit, another for best ROI, as an example. 6 monthly winners could get a year’s free access to the Members’ Club maybe. I am thinking out loud here. Anyway, the poll below is just to test interest… please think about it, and whether you would genuinely participate and play regularly. There won’t be any restrictions on what you can tip on etc. If that sounds of interest to you, vote below… (only vote once please) (winning is really about prestige!)

Would you welcome/join a RTP Members Tipping League?

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP Two Year Stats 

(NOTE: the following are from a test report as discussed a few days back.  The link to this is in the Members’ Research Articles link in the key. For the purpose of ‘testing’ I am applying the advised strategies as I do to Section 1. The horses below are not official qualifiers and do NOT count in the results updates etc. For now it is a test, and interesting info to use as you please. For now it may be best ignoring them, but they qualify against stats not covered in the main TTP guide which forms the basis for Section 1)

2.50 Bang – Clondaw Kaempfer (hncp hurdle)  ES+  14/1 S2 S3A  2nd 10/1

12.30 Ayr – Buffalo Ballet (hncp chase)  I3 5/1  UP

3.10 Ayr – Gold Opera (hncp chase) H1 I1 G3  5/1 S4  UP 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

In case you have missed this/haven’t read it….. for one final time…

 

Please Read….

Josh, there are too many bets…. !!…

I received an email from one of you who cancelled their trial already as there were ‘too many bets’… the point of the trial is to see if my approach is for you so no problems there… but I do just want to say a few things as to that specific point…

-Firstly, you should NOT be backing all qualifiers in Section 1. That is not advised, as per the welcome email/note. That would be a lot of bets but is too risky and unlikely to end well.

The advised strategies... the point of what I think of as a ‘menu of options’ is to offer you different approaches that may suit you best. You may be comfortable just backing all qualifiers either multiple times or just the once. ‘Just once’ looks to be averaging around the 5-7 bets per day, with some days busier than others. Now, that may be too many for some, which is fair enough…

-BUT… there are options. There are always options. IF you wanted a more focused approach… you could focus on Jumps Strategies 1, 4 and 5. S1, for example, looks to be averaging around 19 bets per month so far in 2017. As I touched on in the last ‘intro’ video… those 3 may be the best place to focus anyway, systematically… at least in terms of having the most confidence moving forwards. I only say that as those three are based on the ‘ratings pointers’ (HRB, geegeez, inform) and they are a ‘constant’ and clearly add some horse based analysis to my original trainer stats qualifiers. In theory, over-time, they should just keep repeating.  If you wanted to follow a more limited systematic portfolio, i’d strongly consider those 3. But, you have the advised strategy docs and they are there to absorb and plot a way forward that suits you…. the point of the trial period is to allow you that time to explore etc.

-Important… there may always be a ‘fear of missing out syndrome’ with my approach… it is hard but whatever approach you take you do have to get used to missing winners, and accepting it. (it took me a while) You and I don’t need to back every winner to find a profitable approach from the content, that we are happy with individually and that helps us enjoy the game. That is important. And if you can get yourself into a space whereby you can ‘move on’ from missing a winner, it will be more enjoyable. It is easy to focus on missed winners and forget about the number of losers you have also missed, depending on your approach.

-ultimately you will judge your experience on how enjoyable you find the content/community etc and whether you can plot a long term profitable path with the information provided, that you are happy with. There is an approach for everyone I think.. from systematic backers (low through to high number of bets per day), subjective analysis (using all info as a list of ‘starting points’ to attack as you see fit), my ‘notes’, through to a mixture of the lot. My hope is that you get satisfaction from a) being disciplined in following any systematic approaches long term and seeing  your bank grow and/or  b) if applying your own thoughts to qualifiers (what to back, how to back them, how much should I have on -should I be more confident in X etc) that satisfaction of being right, solving the puzzle enough times, and again the betting bank growing in time, or  c) you may well just be driven by the idea of winning X amount of money over time. I’m not personally, my enjoyment comes from getting a+b right, or trying to at least! And that the rest takes care of itself. But, that may just be me. 🙂

My job is to make our experience of this sport, through the content on these pages, as enjoyable as possible.

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As always, any questions, thoughts, positive/negative/constructive, then post a comment or email me.

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The Week That Was
Some handicappers to keep an eye on, a quick word on Rebecca Curtis and some stats/pointers for Bryony Frost: READ HERE>>>

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RESULTS UPDATE: The links in the KEY (‘advised strategies’) have been updated.

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Trainer Track Profiles Final Report: READ HERE>>> (also now in members research articles link in Key)

  • This report is now complete with ‘ES’ and ‘ES+’ symbols, as well as some stats for over the Irish Sea.

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RESULTS SPREADSHEET! (more exciting than the England game, i will promise you that) 

On Tuesday Mark asked whether anyone had a spreadsheet he could use for recording results. I have stolen the below from a friend and edited it accordingly. Hopefully it makes sense.

GRAB YOUR SPREADSHEET HERE>>>> (it should download when clicking the green link)

Below you can find a video of me talking through it. You can edit it and use it as you see fit. If you are better with excel than I am and can improve it, by all means do and email me your work! I didn’t want it overly complicated and I think this does the trick. Let me know what you think…

 

 

GRAB YOUR SPREADSHEET HERE>>>> (it should download when clicking the green link)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Nick Alexander’s blog is always worth a flick through…esp when he has runners! Some snippets on his Ayr battalion. I’d never let a trainer’s thoughts put you off necessarily but can provide context to staking considerations/confidence etc….

    http://www.kinneston.com/

    Josh 14/11/17 6:28 PM Reply


    • That’s a very attractive site; thanks for the pointer.

      chrisrees 14/11/17 10:31 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. How is that Gold Opera 3.10A is in the micro system with H1,I1 & G3 but not in the qualifiers section?

    Ken McKenzie 14/11/17 8:27 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,
      Ah, I assume you missed my note on the ‘two year stats’ from the other day…
      those are from the following report… I am testing/looking at TTP stats just from start of 2016, not covered by my main stats guide which is from 2014…
      it is in the research link within the key, or below….
      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2-Year-Trainer-Stats.pdf

      For the purpose of monitoring/evaluating, I am treating them like ‘qualifiers’ when it comes to the advised strategies… I am testing them live so to speak, applying the same advised strategies methodology to those qualifiers if that makes sense.

      They are NOT part of the official results or section 1, hence why they are in the Test Zone…

      Gold Opera doesn’t fit any of my main stats in the TTP guide… but does on some two year stats for Alexander I found.

      ALL qualifiers in section 1 are from my main Trainer Track Profiles Stats packs. If the trainer stats are not in that pack, they are not in section 1. The horse has to hit those stats first and foremost, before any consideration of ratings pointers etc. Gold Opera does not hit any trainer stats from the TTP guide hence he is not in Section 1.

      You can use the info in any way you please. At this stage it is best ignoring them I suspect, esp systematically, but all of the stats etc are in the various links for you to interrogate in any way you see fit.
      Josh

      Josh 14/11/17 8:49 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. Sorry I haven’t got round to reading it yet. Work seems to keep getting in the way.

        Ken McKenzie 14/11/17 9:31 PM Reply


        • Oh please don’t apologise… as always I get nervous shivers when it appears something isn’t clear as that is my responsibility. And if you think it,someone else will be also. And I don’t like confusion so will always take the opportunity to clarify.
          Josh

          Josh 14/11/17 9:46 PM Reply


  • Small profit today from a couple of runners which went close.

    Jayo Time Bangor Wednesday 12:40 1pt e/w-I want to take a chance on Jayo Time here at a big price here. He was rated as 137 only 18 months and was competitive off the mark. In 4 chase runs since his mark has dropped to 118 the last 2 of which were without cheekpieces which return tomorrow. With Richard Patrick’s 5lb claim he is technically running off a mark of 113. Kerry Lee is flying with 2 of her last 4 runners winning and 7 of her last 9 runners finishing no worse than 4th. Richard Patrick is also flying with 3 wins from his last 5 rides. This is his time of the year with 2 wins and a place from 4 runs in November. He is 3/10, 7p in class 4 handicaps. He is 0/12 in fields of 12+ so a number of his recent runs can be excused and the smaller field will suit much better. If he is remotely back to his old form he should hose up here.
    Presented Ayr Wednesday 12:30 1pt e/w-Presented looks a solid bet here. He has twice placed in class 3 chases and is only 5lbs worse off for those efforts. This looks an easier race. He drops down into a class 4 here. He has a 1st and a close 3rd from 3 tries over course and distance. He won’t mind how much of a slog it is tomorrow. Should be able to either lead or race prominently and I would be disappointed if he doesn’t at least make the frame (cue 4th). Trainer could be in better form but at least her last 4 runners have all ran OK (3244) and she is 3/7, 4p in handicap chases at the track in the past 2 years.
    Minellacelebration Bangor Wednesday 13:45 1pt e/w-I looked through the race and I have considerable question marks about the front five in the market here. I have no idea why the selection is 3 times the price of the favourite considering he was ahead of him at Chepstow and better off at the weights (not to mention the fact that Potters Cross had won on his previous two re-appearance runs). He wasn’t disgraced at Cheltenham in what looked like an extremely good race on paper. He is the only runner in the field to have won a class 2 and is only 2lbs above his last winning mark. Trainer could be in better form but 4 of her last 5 runners which went of 10/1 or less placed so she is in better form than it looks like. Should be up there with the pace.

    Lastly I have had a small £5 e/w bet on Clondaw Bisto in the opener at Exeter given the form of his last race has worked out well with the 3rd and 5th winning but I cant tip him given his trainer’s form.

    Nick Mazur 14/11/17 10:37 PM Reply


    • Good effort re Clondaw Bisto, was backed, travelled well but one paced from the last, placed.

      martin colwell 15/11/17 1:15 PM Reply


  • word of warning going through a bad run ,couldn’t pick my nose at the moment.
    with Nick all the way with Presenting {hope that’s not the kiss of death Nick}
    a couple of ew biggies for Ayr.
    1-00. Shtan On 25-1, came 2nd in his only p2p to Ballycross a couple of years back and if fit could be anything worth a bit of shrapnel ew at the price.
    2-10. Theatre Act 20-1, she’s now 1lb lower than her win at Sedgefield back in January and any sort of return to form could see her go close here in what is a fairly weak race.
    gl to all today.

    martin whittle 15/11/17 6:59 AM Reply


    • iv’e had £2 matched at 800’s on Winter Squaw Ex 3-35 so that would be a nice early christmas prezzie 🙂

      martin whittle 15/11/17 11:13 AM Reply


      • How much could you have got matched? As a trader I am always interested in such things. I posted Prisom at 14 and it got it matched although it is circa 7/1. I wonder who is matching such bets ?

        martin colwell 15/11/17 1:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I wondered if you had any stats on whether playing selections ew would show a profit. I think you have suggested backing to win only and I’m sure from my own research in the past backing ew showed a loss on the place part of an ew bet and thus wasn’t worth it.

    However, I wondered if backing selections ew above a certain price, say 16s (an arbitary number as an example) would show a profit given the likelihood of bigger priced runners to not quite have enough to win but finding enough too run into a place.

    I don’t have my old figures from when I was a member before so wondered if you’re own records would be able to show anything.

    Be interested in yours or anyone else’s thoughts.

    MP

    MP 15/11/17 9:39 AM Reply


    • Hi MP,

      in truth I don’t have a definitive answer to that and need to do a lot of work on such things/master spreadsheets etc. But is one of the reasons why keeping own results is important so if you do take a different approach you can at least compare to all my 1 point win results, which is what I like to judge any approach on. That is the main reason for such advise, the other being that I don’t think there is too much difference.

      When I looked at some results earlier in the year for a 10/1+ approach, you were talking a handful of points 5-10 say, between betting 1 point win versus 1/2 EW. Most of those bigger odds approaches for me don’t find enough placed horses, at a price, to make it worthwhile.

      Given there never seems to be massive differences between P/L, ROI, (on limited evidence i have, need to do more work on that) it is then a case of what suits your own punting needs/mindset. You may get a ‘return’ more often with EW, but not too much more as there are still plenty of losers.

      I did look at some results earlier in the year for an angle that was

      114 bets / 14 wins / 27 places (inc wins) +84 points (1 point win)

      I think 1/2 EW was roughly around the +80 points return, but I suppose you were seeing a return on 13 more bets (those that just placed) but still plenty of losers. It wasn’t a big enough swing for me to change any advice say, but I should really do plenty of work on all results come end of 2017, for more advice to attack next calendar year. It is on the to-do list!

      I know that probably doesn’t help much!
      Josh

      Josh 15/11/17 12:21 PM Reply


      • Hi MP,

        I don’t do the exchange so no idea of returns @bfsp

        S2 bets from start of Summer jumps with my bog odds of 16-25 (plus checking for drifters) would have netted 59 pts e/w
        Same criteria to win would net 117 pts
        S2 bets 10-25/1 to win would net 132 pts.

        First impression is stick to 16-25 to win but will go through last winter quals later and get back with figures.

        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 15/11/17 1:01 PM Reply


        • Mike/Josh,

          That is what I had expected. I am sure when I looked at this before, albeit a very small sample, it showed that playing ew was not as profitable as just to win. It just seems so strange when a 25/1 shot just gets pipped and you could have had the 5/1 place money. Then again there are obviously many many un placed losers where 2 bets are lost, we just dont remember them.

          I guess its just a psychological thing to get over when a big priced winner just misses out or there is a dry spell of winners.

          MP 15/11/17 9:09 PM Reply


  • better racing today – I am on each way on Yanmare at 5/1 BOG for NTD, 2.00 EX. The trainer is in form and I see that the stable think that this horse can go onto better things this season. White Moon is a horse that the Tizzard’s think will become a good chaser in time. However he is two from two over hurdles and can continue winning in the mean time. 4.05 EX, only 7/4.

    On the all weather, Bin Suroor sends one to Newcastle, 3.40NC, Mobbhij, 7/2. Hugh Taylor has put it up and so the price may drop? John Gosden sends only one as well, 4.15 NC, Kings Shield, only 11/10 though. Gay Kelleway has booked Josie Gordon for Prisom in the 6.45 and they travel up knowing that the horse has been working well, 7/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 15/11/17 10:34 AM Reply


  • 4.05 Exeter – Emma Lavelle has won this 4 times from 4 entries in the last 10 years with horses aged 5 and priced between 3/1 and 5/1. De Rasher Counter fits the bill and has been well backed.

    Andy N 15/11/17 10:47 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Thanks for your time and effort finding a suitable spreadsheet. Its spot on, just what i was looking for, should make life easier.

    Cheers
    Mark

    Mark 15/11/17 11:07 AM Reply


    • Hi Mark,
      No problem, it was a valid request and the nudge I needed. Thankfully wasn’t too much work my end and glad it appears useful.
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 15/11/17 12:22 PM Reply


  • Good effort by SP2a and Ian, who had the first two in the 2.10, on at 25/1 and 9/1. I also had them in a tricast with my earlier selection Yanmare who fell two out when in third and clear of the rest. That would have paid a few quid!!!

    martin colwell 15/11/17 2:12 PM Reply


  • Paper Rose did look like winning, but as you say caught a good un on the day. Still 25/1 each way not bad from my perspective so well done Josh.

    Also good effort with Actinpieces, who got pipped. Nice ride from the jockey I thought to get the horse in contention, albeit out sprinted.

    martin colwell 15/11/17 2:26 PM Reply


    • Yep, no excuse there with Actinpieces, ran well, got a very good ride, took it up at good spot but has bumped into one. Winner entitled to have a bit in hand back over fences but hoped he may take a run or two back chasing. Thought she may just grind him into ground but beat by better horse on the day. Still, the value eyes working ok. That’s how it’s gone in last 10+ days or so. That’s racing. well, some of notes/tips been atrocious! on we go.
      Pleased SP2A keep ticking along.. good result that. Thankfully Yanmere got up, I suspect he would have won if standing up- given how two in front finished, but they deserved some luck with recent near misses etc.

      Josh 15/11/17 2:33 PM Reply


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