Free Daily Post: 13/11/17 (complete)

TIPS

None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.10 Carl – Dartford Warbler

 

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Bonus… hopefully I don’t put the mockers on this one, but one of my ‘notes’ horse from today’s Members’ Post… I suppose this part of the daily content could be seen as the ‘tipping’ content, whereby I go through the members trainer based stats qualifiers and pick out what looks most interesting to my eyes… sine I changed my approach/mentality at the start of September it has been a bit mad…with an inevitable dip now due given how crazy a start we had…

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/131, +125.5) (to 1 point win bets, +£627.50 to £5 win bets)

NOTES

2.05 Carl- Newstart – 13/2 looks decent enough to my eye for this one and I will take a chance. He isn’t a strategy qualifier either so if he does go in he’s what I call a ‘bonus’ winner. He isn’t really in the usual category of unexposed/doing something different, so I am probably asking for trouble, but he does just look solid. He arrives here fit, in form, seemingly progressive over hurdles (could be they have found the key to him but he has been ‘in form’ for a while now) and the form of his last race has been boosted a couple of times. The second, who he just beat, has come out and won a C2 up at Ayr off 119, the fourth, Superior Commander, has since gone in at Musselburgh. It was a bunched finish that day but it would appear to be because he was beating in form/progressive horses. He handles soft, so I have no concerns over that. The niggle is whether soft, 17f and this hill, catch him out. But his experience, form, hardiness and importantly fitness may mean it doesn’t matter (if he does struggle with it) as everything else may be paddling in behind before that becomes a problem. Hopefully. The Whillans horse looks a danger but most of the others in here have a fitness question. He looked most interesting to my eyes today, at the prices.

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That will be all for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Eire V Denmark is a fascinating match.
    Goal shy Eire are in a difficult position as at 0-0
    an away means they have to score 2.
    which would be a massive up hill struggle.
    As we have seen with all the battling British sides
    they are hard to be and very well organised but they have very few creative stars who can make things happen

    The management of Eire know this so they are hardly likely to throw men forward in big numbers
    and another 0-0 is well on the cards
    Set pieces are Eire best chance keep it mega tight and hope a corner or free kick
    get the one goal needed

    AS we saw with Northern Ireland they lacked the class to score in open play
    but only a dodgy penalty was conceded

    Denmark have the better players but could be strangled out of it

    peter 13/11/17 12:47 PM Reply


    • Yes low goals again. I had the 0-0 Northern Ireland and somehow got a way with it. The draw is only 2/1 this evening and so go 0-0 and 1-1 for slightly better odds. What about Ireland to win on penalties?

      martin colwell 13/11/17 1:40 PM Reply


      • don’t think Eire will score except from a set play
        so 0-0 0-1 0-2 are my plays

        peter 13/11/17 3:18 PM Reply


  • Started to play tricasts/trifectas since Ian mentioned them specially when Ian/Josh tip in same race but different horses also started doing exacta on my tote account and csf on bookie accounts.

    Didn’t get trifecta today but think that’s a 1 in 20 bet but permed few from the views of Josh/Ian in the 2.05 and Rhymers Stone and Meadowcroft Boy top 4 for Ian paid me just over £64 for total stake of £14 on various perms so thank you another bullseye in the betting bank.

    Colin 13/11/17 2:32 PM Reply


  • 3.20 Southwell is a very interesting little claimer
    The big lad is a c/d winner ran well last time and is rated 3lbs ahead of Vroom
    so on the bare fact on paper he looks a certainty but
    the last time he ran on the track(admittedly over 6f)
    the jockey stated he didn’t handle the kickback
    so the fear is if he gets behind and has a bunch of sand kicked in his face
    he could curl up and run no race
    obviously if he gets on the front end with no kickback he will win
    Vroom is really a 6f horse but will be running on to late if the fav
    doesn’t have to handle the kick back

    by far the most interesting horse in the race is Osbournes
    strategic heights won multiple races at Dundalk
    but the most encouraging thing was his run on the beach at LAYTOWN
    So although he lacks track experience
    he has the early pace to get in front of the fav early doors
    if so then the fav could wilt under the kickback

    If SH hits the front early and runs his race
    the fav may struggle and Vroom will have to come from to far back

    PETER 13/11/17 3:03 PM Reply


    • gutted beat all the fancied horse only to be smashed by a rag
      hows your luck

      PETER 13/11/17 3:31 PM Reply


  • The Bumper at Carlisle is a very interesting little race

    Kateson Won at Chepstow fto despite running all over the track
    Tom Lacey in his blog states he is a real star but wont be rushed
    was entered for Bumpers at Ascot and Sandown but didn’t run because the ground was considered
    to firm
    so although he won on good ground and today it is softer isn’t a negative
    has a 7lb penalty and they wont put a gun to his head to win
    but Hereford to Carlisle is a fair trot.

    The dark horse is Shamilan unraced for Ronal O ‘Leary
    The trainer is 5/11 with bumper runners in Britan in the last 5 years so they come to
    party but that stats is in the price.

    Lacey hasn’t gone for a claimer to off set the 7lb penalty with Kateson
    because the horse is a difficult ride and needs a top rider.
    Sean Bowen fits the bill but Scu who rode Lacey horse in the first rides the Irish raider
    so that could be a tip

    peter 13/11/17 3:13 PM Reply


    • frustrating game at times done by another 20/1 rag

      peter 13/11/17 3:47 PM Reply


  • Thank you again Ian/Josh.

    Permed the 4 in the 3.10; Ian’s tip Achill Road Boy; Ian’s main danger Un Guet Apens; Josh’s tip Dartford Warbler and one other mention pace angle from Ian Brother Scott.

    An Exacta paid £275.50 for an outlay of £14 and the trifecta paid £2647.90 for an outlay of £12.

    Happy days, I think the phrase is “money for old rope” but I know a load of hard work goes in to it

    THANK YOU

    I’m now over £5k up in last few weeks net for an outlay of about £30 per day on 2 races! I used to play 3-4 in big handicaps at £1 / £2 e/w, for same stakes this is proving 100x more lucrative!

    Colin 13/11/17 3:34 PM Reply


    • Sounds like another good day Colin! Yep, looking like a lucrative approach, esp when a few obvious pace angles/front runners, who if they don’t stay there, generally may not fold out of the places etc, esp if dictating. I may have to start dabbling in these more exotic bets myself!

      Josh 13/11/17 3:52 PM Reply


  • Didn’t do them today but they are damn lucrative if you get them right! Good work Colin!

    dougandnicky 13/11/17 6:44 PM Reply


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