Members Daily Post: 12/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Sandown

12.45 –

Summytahliateigan (all hncps)  7/1 UP

Royal Irish Hussar (hncp h) 14,30  14/1 S2 

Capeland (m2) H3 4/1 UP

1.20 – Crystal Lad (nov hncp) 30 I3 12/1 S2 S5  UP

2.55 –

Wolfcatcher (all hncps)  14/1 S2 UP

Wenyerreadyfreddie (all hncps + m1) 14, 30 G1 7/2 UP

Garo De Juilley (m2) 30  15/2  3rd 

Fidux (m2)  H3 I3 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S4 S5 Fell 

 

Ffos Las

2.30 –

Theigirlfrommilan (hncp chase + m1) ES+ G3 11/1 S1 S2 S3A  UP

Pink Gin (m2) 14 ES+ 5/1 S3A 2nd 

3.05 –

Firebird Flyer (m2 + m2) 14 ES G3 12/1 S1 S2 S3  3rd 16/1 

Prime Venture (m2 + m2) 14 ES H1 I3 G3 7/4 S3 S4 WON  7/4>8/11 

4.10 – Rock And Roll King (m2 + m2 + m2) 14 ES  10/1  S2 S3 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/131, +125.5)

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NOTES….

None, I have had a good look through the list above (with a clear head I will add!) and i’m not tempted to ‘tip’ anything at the prices really, so I will leave it there.
GL with any bets.

 

Re-Cap…

hmmm, where to start…

1. I was due a blowout on a ‘through the card’ vid and I’m not sure I pointed to anything of use at Wincanton! Most may still be running. Awful, and in conditions I usually like to thrive in. That’s racing though, it isn’t that easy sadly. We’d been on a good run…

2. Aintree.. if i’d have recorded a video for that I may have highlighted a few winners… my thanks to David for highlighting On Tour… he was in my mind thanks to his profile comment, and when I realised he went close in the same race last year I had a nibble at him. I just about survived the day (at Aintree, not elsewhere!), betting wise…

3. Present Man… I can’t repeat my reaction to watching him win. Hopefully those of you who are systematic strategy backers paid no attention to my free post analysis. If you did and I put you off then apols. I didn’t have a penny on him. I back my free tips to £20 per point and with 4 points on the race that was my limit… this is a game of price. When ‘tipping’ in the race Friday evening Present Man was generally 7s or so. He was on my race trends shortlist of 5, he hit the members stats etc. The question was all about the going. Would he handle soft/heavy. It was an unknown. He hadn’t raced on ground like that outside of novice company and you were simply guessing, to a point, as to how he would handle it. He hadn’t proved he wouldn’t. That is an important distinction. My judgement for such a ‘guess’ was that I wanted a bigger price. He was 11s generally Saturday morning. I have no idea if that would have made a difference if just looking in the morning. It is always easy with hindsight. I can live with my decision on that race, at that time. What rubs salt in the wound and made it a painful punting experience (in the context of watching horses run around a field on such an important day more generally) was how poorly my seemingly heavy ground horses ran!! Just atrocious. I hate when tips don’t run any sort of race/never in contention over the last couple. Oh well. Moving on. (they are still 90+ points for the year, I won’t feel too sorry for myself. But I despise being that wrong. On all counts. Horrible)

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds, for now)

2.55 Sand – Sword of Fate

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none… well, for one last time…

NEW… another new… VIDEO….

THIS IS A RUN THROUGH FOCUSED ON SECTION 1 – AIMED AT MEMBERS WHO STILL HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW TO APPROACH THE CONTENT AND WHAT ALL THE CODES/NUMBERS ETC MEAN

If that is you, and you do wish to make your time in this club profitable/enjoyable over time, please put aside 17 minutes and watch it.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Josh ….. not sure this is the video you meant to post > its for Wincanton mate ? ..unless ive totally confused myself ? 🙂

    joners 11/11/17 7:02 PM Reply


    • haha, yep, wrong one! I never want to watch that again!! Cheers.

      Josh 11/11/17 7:19 PM Reply


  • Sandown 12.45 Bastien (6/1 ) …. this was a sick horse last year and that had to put it away . returns here on a decent mark with the claim taken into consideration … im sure they want to make up for lost time and Alan King is quoted as saying he is now working better than ever .
    One for the notebook whatever happens here

    joners 11/11/17 7:29 PM Reply


  • Well finally managed to find a winner. There have been 10 horses that have ran to their ideal profiles so far and we have managed one winner (a long way below expectations, usually the profiles peviously had a SR around 25%) and a loss of 3 points.

    15.30 Sandown LOOSE CHIPS (8/1 Ladbrokes)
    RH track, 3m or less, 13 runners or less, Class 2,3 and 4 only, 26 to 60 days after last race – 11111P221121

    David Peat 12/11/17 7:15 AM Reply


    • To David Peat
      I find your profiles very useful as a comparison factor with other runners.
      Loose Chips seems to prefer G and he is somewhat lacking in the speed department.
      Your work is much appreciated.
      Edmund

      Edmund Broooke 12/11/17 12:53 PM Reply


  • My sole success yesterday was an e/w on Theatre Guide,one of the most consistant chasers around,unfortunately the handicapper will stop him from winning,he is one of those caught between a rock and a hard place,not quite top class.I got the feeling that Paddy wasn’t that hard on him and maybe the real destination lies ahead,40/1 quote for Ladbroke Trophy on 2nd Dec,this is probably the target

    gearoid180468 12/11/17 9:43 AM Reply


  • The always in form FOB has Mercy Mercy Me running 4pm Sandown,the favourite is the Geatrex,The Butcher Said,has won race twice before but wouldn’t be too impressed with his overall track strike rate of 4%

    gearoid180468 12/11/17 9:57 AM Reply


  • 1.10 Navan I’ve backed Classic Theatre at 100/1.
    Trainer is 2/2 in the race.

    Andy N 12/11/17 1:08 PM Reply


  • Paddy may have lost the ride on Cue Card,but is still best in the business at getting a horse home,FOB continues purple patch.

    gearoid180468 12/11/17 4:25 PM Reply


    • Wow, thats certainly some statement saying Brennan is the best in the business at getting one home. No doubt about it hes a good jockey and in the top ten in my opinion, but there has to be a problem with him somewhere. He came over to England from Bolger and joined P.Nicholls, he didnt stay long but went on to join P.Hobbs where he became champion conditional. He then came up north and joined Howard Johnson where again he had some success but also a well documented spat meant he moved again. Howard Johnson was a notoriously difficult human being so i dont blame him for moving away. He then went to Twiston Davies and won the gold cup on Imperial Commander. He didnt stay long and moved on to join Tom George. Again he didnt stay long and has now teamed up with F. O’Brien ( One time assistant to Twiston Davies). Just recently he has been jocked off Cue Card after hitting the deck three times on him. Certainly no fault of Paddy’s. It just seems for all his success hes never been an in demand jockey. I think he is at his best on chasers and just recently he has found a way to get bumper horses home. I will finish by saying if Brennan is the best at getting one home then these top trainers ( Nicholls,Hobbs, Twiston Davies, George) have missed a trick. They dont make mistakes like that so there has to be something else about Paddy that stops him from being at the very top.

      Roddo 12/11/17 5:34 PM Reply


  • I caught the back end of the race when Fidux fell at the last. I was absolutely gutted. I had 2pts ew on that. Does anyone think he’d have won the race had he jumped the last? So unlucky either way, I think because the other horse clattered the hurdle that then caused Fidux to fall . 🙁

    Matt M 12/11/17 5:43 PM Reply


    • Yep, that was the most painful result of the day and one of the few I had a good go at… well he definitely would have come second.. it is hard to know.. the fall was unlucky and I think he was put off with it being knocked just before he jumped it.. difficult to know if the leader was getting tired, or just idling having been out in front so long…not impossible he would have picked up again if joined, but King’s was staying on well, and it would have been a battle to the last. Impossible to say, but I given we backed him you would like to think he would have! Annoying. That’s racing sadly. All evens out over time, just have to actively remember the winners you back when a faller in behind who was closing etc – and I have backed a few of those.

      Josh 12/11/17 5:47 PM Reply


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