Members Daily Post: 11/11/17 (complete)

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Doncaster

1.00- Weld Al Emarat (micro runs) G3 50/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Kelso

12.50 – Blakerigg (nov hncp) 14,30 9/2  UP

1.25 –

Ueueteotl (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES I3 G3 6/1 S3  S1+S5  3rd 

Classical Milano (hncp hurdle) 20/1 S2 UP

2.00- Chidswell (all hncps + hncp chase) 14,30  ES+ H3 I1 G3 4/1  S3A S4   

3.10 – Forty Crown (hncp hurdle) I3 12/1 S2 , S5  UP

 

Aintree

1.40 – Vyta Du Roc (m1) 14,30 H3 I3 8/1    UP

 

Wincanton

1.50 – Jessber’s Dream (hncp hurdle + m1) 30 ES+  12/1  S2, S3A  3rd

3.00- Zubayr (hncp hurdle + m2) ES+ G3 13/2 S3A   UP

3.35 –

Theatre Guide (hncp chase) ES+ H1 I3  16/1  S3A  S5  3rd 

Present Man (m2) ES+  11/1 S2 S3A  WON 11/1>8/1 

Tempestatefloresco (hncp chase) ES+ I3  40/1  S3A  S5  UP

4.10 – Celtic Joy (NHF) 14/1  S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/129, +127.5)

 

Weld Al Emarat… UP in truth I don’t think I’ll be able to live with another Mick Easterby 50/1 qualifier winning without carrying any of my cash (Perfect Pasture does not give me nightmares at all!!) and as such i want to have a nibble on this one. There is at least some method to my madness… he is lightly raced, it is his second start for Mick, his second run after over a year off, his mark has come down, he gets 7lb off his back, he drops from 12f LTO to 7f here, his first run over the trip. I’d be surprised if he won but not in total shock if he placed and he will carry £5 EW I suspect. It is rare for me to back any horse EW but at these odds, with many bookies offering 5 places, it would be foolish not to. He may be devoid of any ability and Mick may be plotting something (an AW campaign maybe). Or he is just getting a couple of runs into him before a break and returning next year. They must be running him at this time of year for a reason though, give the time he had off. It is one of those races and you never know. There is some 66/1 in places. I’ll roll the dice, clearly rather hopeful than expectant! But, with this mindset, I would have plucked out his last biggie for us and I will do so again in the future.

Classical Milano.. UP at 20s another who I cannot resist a nibble on at those odds… I have still to find my ‘jumps eyes’ for this notes section, but this one is very lightly raced and this is his second handicap run, and the second after a break. I am looking for an excuse for that PU LTO and I am going to assume it was the heavy ground. Given he had only raced on good/good to soft, at this price, I will assume that is the reason. The trainer has a decent enough record with handicappers that PU LTO. This one steps up a bit further in trip and clearly has some ability. The trainer also has winners at all prices, so unless a massive drift from 20s, i’m not fussed by his price/a lack of support (some trainers as we know rarely have winners over X price and that can be a decent guide…not so much as to whether to back a horse or not, but maybe on the staking front) He returns to good ground here, may come on a bit for the last run, and there is more to come from him one day. It may not be today, but at 20s i’d feel a bit glum if he went in.

That’s it for notes horses. I’m about to head out for breakfast and then off to Aintree.

Have a great day! Josh

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re-cap…

Ah well I don’t like to dwell on losers for too long (too often, I can stare at some for an age!) but no issues with the Notes horses. Maybe taking 4s on a horse that may have needed the run was idiotic but I am saying that with hindsight. On paper I am not surprised that most of the strategy qualifiers didn’t run their races, most had a few questions. That is how it goes. The point of a systematic approach is to remove such subjective anguish, if that is how you approach said content. Flying Jack proved what a game of fine margins this is… he was about to jump into the lead past the horse that went on to win, seemingly full of running. He then smacked the fence. You have to jump and his stamina wasn’t proven but he was travelling as if he would have paid for most of the strategy qualifiers. On we go. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

3.15 Donc – Royal Line UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW… another new… VIDEO….

THIS IS A RUN THROUGH FOCUSED ON SECTION 1 – AIMED AT MEMBERS WHO STILL HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW TO APPROACH THE CONTENT AND WHAT ALL THE CODES/NUMBERS ETC MEAN

If that is you, and you do wish to make your time in this club profitable/enjoyable over time, please put aside 17 minutes and watch it.

 

 

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WINCANTON

This is for Colin and anyone else who may be off to Wincanton! Make sure you pack the waterproofs.. (it is 31 minutes, but hopefully it flies by…)

 

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Tizz has another in the 3.35 – Templestatefloresco

    ………

    Beer Goggles , Ain 1.40 well worth another crack @ 11/2,6’s . Bastyan who’s profitable in hurdles so far this year claiming some of the lbs back from Hc’er.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 10/11/17 6:13 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, cheers! Damn, i’d been doing so well… the amount I have missed when a trainer has 2 in the race, shocking! Be shocked if he doesn’t flounder in the mud mind, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

      Yet to look at Aintree, expecting rain up here I think, so may work of basis it is soft, bit of a guess at mo, could be no worse than GS.
      Josh

      Josh 10/11/17 6:22 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh a nice touch with the poppies at the start of the page,let us not forget them.

    colin leafe 10/11/17 6:27 PM Reply


  • Agreed re poppies

    #perspective

    Steve 10/11/17 7:35 PM Reply


  • I like some for Saturday and so am on at BOG. At Doncaster it may be the case that Tony Bloom can take another big Saturday race? In the 3.15 Niblawi is 20/1, is well weighted on some form and has a claimer on board. I am also on Royal Line at 8/1, but do not really fancy it and plan to lay it at 4/1 and have a free bet on it. At Wincanton, in the 1.50 I like The Organist at 6/1 based upon its form in good quality races it has run in. In the 3.35 I am on Mr Mix at 14/1 EW. I know the rain is coming but PN says he thinks the horse may be OK on such a surface. In the 3.00, Charbel goes well FTO and can outclass these on Cheltenham and other form and so 4/1 looks good.

    I will likely have another go Saturday morning.

    Happy days.

    martin colwell 10/11/17 7:53 PM Reply


    • Blow out for me and a few others today. At least I laid off Royal Line. Although he won the big race I though a number of the Nicholls horses ran below par? I am laying Denmark this evening and so I need the Irish to be on their game.

      martin colwell 11/11/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the Poppy header Josh…I’ll be on parade tomorrow bright and early, but i’ll catch up on my bets later.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 10/11/17 8:50 PM Reply


  • just so many tracker horses today and a lot of high quality races which i’m finding very hard to get through the form it seems a lot harder than doing a class 4,5,6 racing. think my preference is starting to lean towards the lower grade animals. i just find it easier when looking.
    anyways first up DANCE FLOOR KINGS 1:15 Wincanton. Been running in class 3 company. consistant front runner which we like. may of needed the run last time out. won in april off 119 with 11-8 today off 118 11-8. 9/1 looks generous.
    FIRST TO BOOGIE. 2:20 Naas.
    this is one of josh’s one to watch next time out horses. he’s not running at puchestown but he has been upped in trip as josh though they would do. gone up 2lb since last run.
    should run well again today.

    a couple of interest PEACH MELBA 6:50 wolverhampton will probably go off odds on but should not up another win.
    EPITAPH 7:50 wolverhampton for m appleby been there or there abouts at this level.
    PALOMA BLUE 1:45 Naas if i can actually read into form looks like its gonna be a very good horse.
    and last but not least BALLYBOLLEY over In josh’s back yard 2:15 Aintree. i just like the look of this one.

    hope its of use.

    warren bottomley 11/11/17 12:16 AM Reply


  • Thank you so much for the brilliant Card assessment at Wincanton. If I don’t come out making a profit it certainly won’t be through a lack of your effort !!

    goldenbear3 11/11/17 6:17 AM Reply


  • Couldn’t sleep so watched the Wincanton video and then looked at the November Handicap. On May 16 2016, MIRSAALE was 1 3/4l behind Sir Chauvelin in a 13f Hcp at Hamilton on soft ground, giving him 20 lbs. Today he receives 2.He will stay today’s trip, races prominently, goes on the ground and the trainer is in reasonable form. P. Makin is 2 wins. 2 places from 5 on the horse. I haven’t analysed every runner but will have something E.W. at 33’s, the horse having shown its well-being in a hurdle race a few days ago.
    SIMON

    Simon Van Zyl 11/11/17 6:18 AM Reply


  • There are quite a few horses today that are running to profile mind you the form I am in it may be best to give them a wide berth.

    13.15 Wincanton CODY WYOMING (12/1)- GTS and softer, Class 4 and below,117 rating or less, 11 to 240 days – 1212112

    13.15 Wincanton DANCE FLOOR KING (10/1)- RH track with undulations, Class 3 and below, 120 rating or less, 11 to 45 days – 11321221

    13.15 Wincanton HOWLONGISAFOOT (7/1)- Class 3 and below, 11 runners or less, 16 to 45 days – 121112561

    14.15 Aintree ON TOUR (6/1) – September to December, Class 2and below, 2m4f or less – 1211111123 (2 from 3 on tight track, 3 from 4 on flat track, 41 days+: 121)

    14.15 Aintree BALLYBOLLEY (13/2) – good or GTS ground, 2m4f or less, Class 2 and below, 6 to 120 days – 121171111F

    15.25 Aintree PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (14/1) – Class 3 and below, 2m1/2f or less, Flat or slightly undulating track – 1111

    15.35 Wincanton YALA ENKI (9/1) – Listed races and below, GTS and softer – 211141 (LH: 1124, RH: 111)

    15.35 Wincanton PILGRIMS BAY (18/1) – RH track, flat or slightly undulating: 121231

    David Peat 11/11/17 8:54 AM Reply


    • Thanks for posting these and don’t worry about your form. You cannot argue with the numbers..if only the horses realised they had their ideal conditions!

      Anthony 11/11/17 10:28 AM Reply


  • nice touch with the poppies josh

    william 11/11/17 9:36 AM Reply


  • An interesting days racing , hope my wallet doesnt dive for cover once its all over 🙂 .
    Aintree 1.40 …. i thought 2 were of interest , Forza Milan & Holly Bush Henry , the latter became a “must back ” after i watched (& backed Thanks to Josh ) Del Arca win at Newbury on Thursday as HBH ran a decent 6th at Cheltenham separating Del Arca & Whataknight that day . If the ground gets softer then that would not be a concern as hes unbeaten on 4 soft ground starts , i believe they wanted James Bowen on board but he wasnt available so Fergus gets the chance .. took 14/1 e/w B365 last night & some @ 16 on BF .
    Forzan won nicely at Chepstow in Feb on soft , returned with a pipe opener at Worcester behind HBH , caught the eye when travelling nicely without really being given a hard race …. soft ground and the claim makes this a bet today i think . Missed the 8/1 last night … if ya snooze ya loose !

    Just thought i would say ..Good Luck to Tony Mc who is on Parade for Armistice day ……. “Lest we Forget ” ……..

    joners 11/11/17 10:44 AM Reply


    • Weather held fine in Liverpool Joners…..Ranks getting thinner though…Mind you it was nice chatting with sons and daughters of the lads go on….G/Kids to…lol…and g/g/kids like mine….

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 11/11/17 6:10 PM Reply


  • Beer Goggles has gone from strength to strength since the application of a tongue strap and can go in again at a nice price.

    Simon Van Zyl 11/11/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • Another exceptional weekends racing in Ire.

    Bacardys who i really think is going to be one of the best novice chasers about this year makes is seasonal debut.

    One bet- Jack Dillinger- I noted him on one of these blogs on his seasonal reappearance as one to watch behind Samcro, as he ideally will want further than 2miles and is well handicapped. He has ran behind all the big guns in maidens and with his pedigree you’d imagine he will improve for the testing track and 2m4.
    He should’ve won with his head in his chest at down royal last year but stumbled after the final fence. The form of that race isn’t great but i really think he’s an interesting horse this season. He didn’t make the cut in a Punchestown fez handicap worth over 50k, and they clearly weren’t throwing him into such a tough race on handicap debut expecting nothing…Today isn’t an easy race, but at 14s he is massive for me.

    Jack 11/11/17 11:37 AM Reply


  • I’ve gone for a P Nicholls ew yankee today
    1:50 Jessbers Dream
    3:00 Zubayr
    3:35 Mr Mix
    4:10 Earth Leader
    GL everyone

    Darren 11/11/17 12:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Enjoying the content and the chat from the other members. Small request – in your notes tips could you put the time and course for each tip. I know I can find them but I’m a bit lazy that way lol. Cheers Ken

    Ken McKenzie 11/11/17 12:21 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken, noted. No problem.

      Josh 11/11/17 12:55 PM Reply


  • Lunch was lovely !!
    Always tomorrow ll

    goldenbear3 11/11/17 6:23 PM Reply


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