Members Daily Post: 10/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Hexham

2.40 –

Ange Des Malberaux (all hncps) 14 ES H1 5/1     S3 UP

Sky Full Of Stars (all hncps) 14  ES I3 15/2     S3  S5   F

Mrs Grass (m1) H3 I1 G3 15/2     S4    2nd 

3.10 – Rivabodiva (m1+m1) ES+ H1 G3 11/2      S3A  2nd 7/2 

3.40 –

Flying Jack (all hncps) ES+ H3 G3 8/1 S3A , Fell (when about to take it up)

Haul Us In (hncp chase + m1 + m1) ES+  8/1 S3A UP

 

Warwick

2.20 – Spiritual Man (hncp hurdle + m1) ES 14/1    S2 S3 UP

2.50 – Bronco Billy (m1) ES H3 I3 G3 13/2     S3 S4  UP

3.20 – Riverside City (m1) ES  9/1    S3  UP

3.50 – Champagne Poppy (NHF) 14,30  5/1  UP

 

Fontwell

2.30 – Lady Of Lamanver (hncp hurdle) H3 15/8  WON 15/8>7/4 

3.30 – Give Him Time (m1)  ES I3 4/1     S3    UP

4.00 – It’s Got Legs (NHF) 8/1 UP 2nd 10/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/126, +130.5)

Having trawled through that list above, three looked most interesting to my eyes…

Rivabodiva – 11/2 2nd 7/2 – fine run, fav too good sadly…. seems fair for this one given she is still unexposed in these conditions (3m, soft) and comes here on the back of a victory LTO. She escapes a penalty, has a useful 10lb off her back (same jockey as LTO) and races prominently. She looks like a grinder which is generally what you want around here and Russell’s do that best at this track. The fav may hack up but he steps up in distance on softer ground and at a stiffer track. I’m happy to take him on. He may relish all three of those changes… ‘doing something different’ can be a negative in the context of price- you couldn’t say with certainty he will appreciate those changes and as such that makes 5/4 look short to me. Were he 6/8s+ you may say ‘there is a chance he will improve even further for it’ and given his form/unexposed profile, I will roll the dice! I should get a good run from this one and was happy to have her onside.

Haul Us In – 8/1, 15/2 … UP..my word, headgear nor trip didn’t help..lazy sod, jockey will take some time to get over that ride, never travelling, never in it. unexposed, doing something different, a nice price! This is his second start after a break and second chase start. He drops in class, moves up in distance and gets first tiem cheekpieces. I had to have a go! Russell is 2/6,3p in 2017 with her 1st time cheekpieces runners, 6/36,10p the last 5 years, 4/18,4p in chases, 1/2 at Hexham. Hopefully they help her travel better, which the extended trip may help with also. She just looked interesting at that price and ‘could be anything’ in these conditions…and when I say that phrase you know it also means ‘could be useless’, but that is why you always want a price. We get that here

Give Him Time – 4/1 ….UP Hmm.. travelled fine, jumped out to right which he had done last year but clearly still an issue, in the end ran like needing run,    gulp.. in the context of this small field race I think 4s may be decent enough here…this one is unexposed over fences,esp in handicaps, has experience of the track, the yard are going well enough and of most interest was the drop into class 5. That caught the eye. There is also a chance they attempt to make all in this one. The go to man for this yard is in the saddle. The only doubt is fitness and it isn’t impossible he fades after the last/two from home… but Gifford can ready one and his last winner returned after an extended break.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

T Lacey (any odds, for now)

2.20 War – Amadoue UP

 

NEW! (see below in section 4) TTP 2 Years

Hexham

2.20 – Mrs Grass (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES H3 I1 G3 15/2  S3 S4    S1+ S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  2nd 

3.10 – Beyond The Flame (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES 100/1  S3 UP

Warwick

2.20 – Spiritual Man (all hncps + m2) ES+ 14/1    S2 S3A  UP

2.50 – Bronco Billy (all hncps + hncp chase + m2)) ES+ H3 I3 G3 13/2  S3A S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

3.20 – Riverside City (all hncps + hncp chase) ES+  9/1 S3A UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

I hope i haven’t been bombarding you too much this week, albeit it feels a bit like it… in any case, below I have pulled together some ‘2 Year Stats‘ using my unique Trainer Track Profiles template. These stats focus on trainers from the start of 2016 through to 2017 to date. In part this stemmed from a couple of your comments, namely regarding Chris Gordon who has done very well at Plumpton in that time period but due to a shocking 2 years prior to that isn’t in the main guide. So, the guide below, includes trainers that are not already covered by the main report, who have done well in a more recent time period. 

Important… I will post these in the ‘test zone’ and treat them like normal qualifiers when it comes to the ‘advised strategies’ – so, i will add all the usual info but that is just so I can review results periodically. Like all things on this blog this information is there for you to use as you please. You can ignore it if you please and any results, for now, will NOT be included in the main results updates. These qualifiers are against angles/trainers NOT included already in the main stats guide. 

I hope you find it of some interest... (some qualifiers in the test zone above)

YOU CAN READ IT HERE>>>

(I have also added some ‘Bonus’ Irish stats to the main TTP guide. I will get a new link posted up next week.. I want to go through and add the ES, ES+ symbols into that guide also for ease of reference. I will get that done Monday/Tuesday next week before cracking onto to ‘big meeting’ research for Cheltenham) 

 

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NEW… another new… VIDEO….

THIS IS A RUN THROUGH FOCUSED ON SECTION 1 – AIMED AT MEMBERS WHO STILL HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW TO APPROACH THE CONTENT AND WHAT ALL THE CODES/NUMBERS ETC MEAN

If that is you, and you do wish to make your time in this club profitable/enjoyable over time, please put aside 17 minutes and watch it.

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, I don’t comment too much but enjoying the content and informed opinion. I’m off to Sandown Sunday and would appreciate any thoughts of wisdom.
    Pppat

    reillysmiley 09/11/17 7:13 PM Reply


    • Evening, ah good to hear you are enjoying things… Sunday.. I won’t promise anything.. i’m sure ‘team RTP’ may chip in with any thoughts .. i am off to Aintree on Saturday and out in the evening for a friends Bday…so not too sure what state of mind I will be in Sunday morning for looking through a card! 🙂 But, I will try my best.

      Josh 09/11/17 7:46 PM Reply


      • I think rain forecast most of the country tomorrow …. can you let us know if your getting any up there Please Josh …. i usually get my bets on early evening but i tad unsure about the rain situation ..

        Cheers … have a great day out mate

        joners 10/11/17 3:06 PM Reply


        • Yep due rain up here I think, forecast for the track… i’d be working off soft here.. Wincanton is forecast a deluge apparently, bit of guesswork but that could be heavy, be surprised (based on forecasts) if any good at either Aintree/Winc, haven’t checked Sandown as yet. We shall see in the morning.

          Josh 10/11/17 3:08 PM Reply


  • A few tracker horses today and a few fancies.

    First up Warwick. I really should go never been and it’s only a few miles away from coventry.

    NO BUTS 1:20 warwick. Had been running in better company than this and crucially back down to a winning rating today. A little more cut may be preferable. But should be up there with the pace as it likes to front run. 5/1 seems fair.
    OXWICH BAY 2:40 warwick. Runs well after a long break. Finished second and beat a horse of higher class than anything it’s up against today. Pace isn’t to strong in the race. Should be able to sit just behind the leaders and pounce. 15/8
    BESTWORK 3:20 warwick. ..No pace in this race i think if they let him get out in front they might not leg him back. Trained by C Longsdon. 6/1.

    Next up Fontwell.
    LADY OF LONGSTONE 1:30
    Been here before with thisone.
    Has won off a mark of 123 and down to 102 today 2016 ran in listed company and today in a class 5. She clearly has some ability but the answer might lay in the stable today.I’ve read on the posts Pipes yard may just be starting to pick up.

    Warren bottomley 10/11/17 12:33 AM Reply


  • pressed the post button by accident.

    MAJOR CRISPIES 9:15 Newcastle.
    Running off exactly the same mark as his last wining run last time out and no reason why he can’t do the same today.

    Couple of horses i spotted while having a look at the card.
    12:50 at Warwick Henderson has the red hot favourite WE HAVE A DREAM running but looking at the race CRUCIAL MOMENT didnt run a bad race at all last time out. The winner won easily but he stayed on well for second place. That was a class 2 he runs in a class 4 today.
    at 10/1 might be worth an e/w play.
    Hexam 2:40 good old MRS GRASS does like it around here and I think she may be a qualifier on the stats but she has never won at this mark even at her favourite track. One that has won around here and has won this year off a mark of 103 and today runs off a mark of 99 is UNO VALOROSO. He should be right up there with Mrs grass today but may out stay her. assuming something else doesn’t win.

    These are just my thoughts on the races i still systematically back all strategy qualifiers even when I don’t agree. This approach let’s me and my betting bank indulge in the the above. Hope it’s of some use.

    Warren bottomley 10/11/17 1:12 AM Reply


    • Hi Warren
      I’ve had an ew play on crucial moment also. I agree his 2nd in a class 2 in Sept puts him right in the mix.

      Darren 10/11/17 8:00 AM Reply


  • I’ll be your clown 2:20 Warwick 66s

    I’ve been staring at this one for a while and i have to have an ew poke.
    Won twice earlier in the year for Skeltons yard. Not fired for current yard but clearly has the ability.
    Does make me wonder why Skeltons let him go?

    Darren 10/11/17 8:37 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    any videos or posts that might help explain the micro system test zone? Presume the T Lacey micro is for trainer in form? Amadoue looks interesting enough

    Dom J 10/11/17 8:41 AM Reply


  • I’m in the GeeGeez syndicate which has My Dance going in the bumper at Warwick today. The word is she is fit and well, we are hopeful of a good show but it looks quite a deep race. Anthony Honeyball had Sojourn go off at 40+ on Bf in the bumper at Newbury yesterday and he ran very well to be fourth in a good big field bumper so stable seems fine.
    Hugh

    alpha2 10/11/17 9:15 AM Reply


    • GL Hugh… I hope Aidan will be using his experience to attempt to make all!! Given many unraced in here and he may want further in time, I assume that is the plan… looks a decent EW bet to me. The market would suggest there are plenty here without a chance/’not today’ but I suppose you never know. Having said that quite a few yards who can ready one are represented, (King/Pauling et al) so could be informative for the future. I see the tongue tie is on also.
      Fingers crossed for you, seems like he has some ability and plenty to work with moving forward.

      Josh 10/11/17 9:24 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, agree with you other than he’s a mare. Lots of unknowns do just hope for the best.
        Hugh

        alpha2 10/11/17 11:17 AM Reply


        • So he is haha. 🙂

          Josh 10/11/17 11:21 AM Reply


  • just want to say again how much i appreciate all the hard work you are putting in josh , will go as far to say this is the best by far of all the sites i have been on / subscribed to , and i’ve been on a few over the years i can tell you that !
    6 weeks nearly in on my 4 month trial now and i’ve just been following all the strategie bets as you already know , fingers crossed that it keeps me well in profit at the end of it , i hope so because obviously that is the main thing but i also enjoy looking through all of the other content that you put up , articles , videos , the lot , so thanks .

    steve 10/11/17 10:18 AM Reply


    • cheers Steve, much appreciated. Yep ultimately the club should be judged on whether you have managed to use all the content, in a way that suits you etc, to make long term profits…and certainly not lose…but i have always wanted to the club to be more than that- it is meant to be an ‘experience’ and add enjoyment to your racing – so i’m glad that is coming across! In effect it is a window into how I enjoy the game with the hope that others find it enjoyable also! (and create an atmosphere conducive to being ‘all in it together’ where comments/thoughts are welcomed, and add to the content)

      Josh 10/11/17 10:46 AM Reply


  • Looking at Newcastle later John gosden has a pretty good strike rate at the meeting he has sent 2out tonight. CASHLA BAY 6:45, POUVOIR MAGIQUE 7:15. May we worth keeping an eye on.

    Warren bottomley 10/11/17 12:03 PM Reply


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