Members Daily Post: 09/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

JUMPS

Newbury

1.10 – Onefitzall (m1+m2) ES+  9/2  S3A fell

1.40 – Exaaro (hncp chase) I1 16/1 S2 S5  UP

3.20 – Poppy Kay (m1 + m2) ES H3 I3 G3 9/4  S3 S4  WON 5/2 

 

Market Rasen

None.

 

Ludlow 

4.05 –

Court Royale (NHF) 14 13/2 2nd 7/2 

Vinndication (NHF) 14 6/1 WON 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/126, +130.5)

 

Nothing to add today, no ‘notes’ selections.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

A welcome winner for the Lacey test, hot on the back of his 150-100/1 second on Monday.

A Ralph has a few out tomorrow… I will just touch on TEMPURAN WON 7/1>9/2 in the 2.20 Ludlow.. I will be having a little nibble on him at 8s +, EW may be advised but I will only be playing with 5s so may not bother… I put him up in some ‘mark your card’ notes when running at Taunton a few days back.. he ran a decent 2nd at 16/1. That was a hands and heels race whereas today the jockey can be a bit more aggressive… we know he is in form.. but the main ‘way in’ was pace.. i think they will try and make all. This is over a couple of furlongs further and there is a chance he doesn’t stay but I’d be surprised if he isn’t leading turning for home. I’ll have a dabble to find out at that price. 

Musselburgh’s ‘mark your card’ video went quite well and pleased to hear William had a good day out.. two make all winners as expected/hoped, and I was strong enough on the Russel winner, who was 17/2 on course! I’d take three winners like that every time I went to the races, all day long. Clearly that ‘mark your card’ approach can be hit and miss on the winners front but I hope that if nothing else you find the videos interesting/informative. I am always happy to consider ‘marking your card’, esp Mon-Friday, just give me fair warning/reminders!

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

VERY IMPORTANT! INFORM RATINGS…

Jumps… strategy #5 is now on…

90 bets / 9 wins / +52 / +62.5 BFSP / 70% ROI

I have recorded a 10 minute video below just touching on that approach and some thoughts moving forwards. I think it is worth your time, but you can be the judge of that! (in theory, because it is ‘ratings pointer based’, there should be every confidence in those bets/wins results just repeating over time, with any luck, as with Strategy 1. I will start adding an S5 )

 

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Things to read….

The Week That Was: You can read my first attempt HERE>>>  (repeated from yesterday’s post) 

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NEW! David Peat’s Profiles UPDATE 4: READ HERE>>>

(with improved ‘ideal conditions’ notes)

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That’s the lot for today.

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I also appreciated the Musselburgh video, highlighted a couple of winners that I jumped on, thanks Josh.

    Kevin 08/11/17 6:37 PM Reply


  • 1.10 Newbury, Class 2, 3miles.
    Closing Ceremony 16/1 (Sky 14/1, 4places)
    A C1 Hurdler, 654 days off, ignore last two runs as a chaser.
    I presume that there had been a problem.
    Goes well fresh, soft, quick and lightly raced.
    Time Lavelle had a winner.

    Edmund Brooke 08/11/17 10:45 PM Reply


  • Something to add with regards to setting BFSP minimums that I have just spotted it. (and when I previously discussed it with Josh we couldn’t think of a way to do it) It is possible to do this on the app on your mobile however what you need to do is click on full site on the bottom of the page.

    Nick Mazur 08/11/17 10:55 PM Reply


  • A few tracker horses but they are so short in price i could back all 4 and not double my money. So I’ll just watch.
    The only other that has been thrown up is WINDSHEAR 12:40 newbury.
    The horse was thrown up because I have paddy brennan in my tracker to check his runs against a micro angle. Now he doesn’t fit the angle but
    This horse was 4 th in the st ledger in 2014 for richard hannon but subsequently sold on. Looks to have been in the wilderness but still only a 6 year old. Not sure how good or bad he would need to be to win this but at 50/1 i can afford an e/w dabble

    Warren bottomley 09/11/17 2:23 AM Reply


    • i have had a £1 ew on Windshear as well now 66-1 skybet

      martin whittle 09/11/17 8:02 AM Reply


      • I’ll take the 10/1 place. Nice start to the day.

        Warren bottomley 09/11/17 12:49 PM Reply


    • Great shout Warren

      joners 09/11/17 12:51 PM Reply


    • Thank you also Warren. Got on at 100/1 on Bet365 with only 10 mins to post! Just before the course bookies ‘chalked up’ I guess.

      Patrick O'Connell 09/11/17 1:28 PM Reply


    • Yep well done, lovely result! Good start to the day indeed.

      Josh 09/11/17 1:35 PM Reply


  • 1.40 Henry Parry Morgan, took the 11/2 last night. ATR did a piece with the bowen’s a few weeks back. Apparently a very well handicapped horse. James & Sean were joking about who was going to get the ride. Effectively racing off 126 today, his milday novice chase at aintree in 2016 reads pretty well!

    Dom J 09/11/17 8:49 AM Reply


    • I have to agree Dom, well done for snaffling that price… I am about to throw him into some notes in free post I think… 4s may be getting on the short side.. trainer in form, horse won after a break… hit OR 150 at one stage, now 133, -7 more off his back just to make sure… the drop in trip is interesting… no idea if it will suit but ‘doing something different’ and you have to think they will be aggressive with him here. A bit of pace on paper but at his best i’m not sure many in here have matched his form/could live with him. You feel it is a big day for the horse, i’d like to see him demolish that lot (or if not, somehow the Tizzard horse winning but on paper he looks up against it, trust in the ‘I’ though maybe!)

      Josh 09/11/17 8:55 AM Reply


    • Considering he has a shocking record fresh and that distance was too short that looked like a pretty decent prep run and should be able to pick up a couple of 3m chases on the bounce now so certainly one to watch NTO although might not get a price.

      Nick Mazur 09/11/17 1:50 PM Reply


      • Yep, would be able to track the pace a bit better over a longer trip…he settled in a position that was comfortable, pace wise..doubt he could have gone much quicker earlier in that, not without doing too much/spelling danger at fences. Decent ride… they have gone hard there. Winner done well to hold on… you’d like to think he has a chase or two in him now, good to see him jump/travel, and run well. Maybe he is just shy of G3 level.

        Josh 09/11/17 2:02 PM Reply


  • Josh highlighted Alistair Ralph runner above and ive had an interest in another of his at Ludlow 3.30 Comber Hill 13/2 … best runs have been on soft and of more interest was the fact he has left off the 5lb claimer ( 3 times aboard ) and used Fergus Gregory , most are claim ridden in here , so that caught my eye along with being able to run off almost the same mark as in Ireland (lb diff) .
    Maybe ive read too much into the jockey choice and the mark but it was hard to let it run without a punt on a course n trip of its best effort to date …

    Im off to Newbury today ….. late decision last night but didnt have the heart to ask you to take a review at such short notice (cos i knew you would try to oblige ) ,,, any other snippets to help me keep the misses in G&T much appreciated .

    Good Luck All

    joners 09/11/17 8:58 AM Reply


    • have a great day out Tony…
      Of interest, having had a quick flick through…
      1.10 – well we have the Hobbs horse… he seems short enough to me given the trip is an uknown (may improve for it) and the days off the track..BUT, he has a very good record fresh so may be the answer. The Alan King horse interests me, Cannon rides… as per notes in my ‘the week that was’, that is a partnership that has proved profitable so far this year… and Del Arca… now he has qualified for the Pertemps after his run LTO… I wonder if Pipe may try and get a win out of him soon, to ensure he gets in with a mid 140s mark, and then play around with him before March/keeping the mark steady. One to watch as no idea what their plan is for him but no doubt they may have one.

      1.40 – Henry Parri Morgan is worth some support I think, he just looks interesting.. he will probably get out-paced, walk through a fence and we will wonder why we had a go at 9/2 or so, or he bolts up. I’d have something on tizzards, albeit he really looks up against it- but he is an S5 and you never know! He is unexposed in handicap chases at least.

      the bumper… well Fergal has one in this, Cuddles McGraw with Paddy up…given how they have been going generally, and in bumpers, you’d have to back him at 15/2 or so for something. And Tom Lacey’s… The Last of Them.. he is in decent form and can ready one on debut…doesn’t fit my system for him, but not a reason to be put off. Those two ‘might’ give you a run/some fun, for track side change.

      enjoy .

      Josh 09/11/17 9:49 AM Reply


      • Cheers for that Josh …Top Man

        joners 09/11/17 10:13 AM Reply


        • Ah Del Arca does the job, quite happy with how I read that ‘plotting behaviour’! Hope you had a go Tony! 1st, 3rd and fell. Thankfully both horse and Dickie up fine…nothing beating Pipes today though.

          Josh 09/11/17 1:21 PM Reply


          • Lovely day out and great contributions from Josh and the members posts ..Cracking start in the 1st and Josh highlighted Del Arca following that …. took Poppy Kay from the list above also … The Gin was flowing … my Mrs says a big Thank you as well ..brilliant stuff 🙂

            joners 09/11/17 6:02 PM Reply


            • Ah that’s what we like to hear, ‘team RTP’ riding to the rescue, yep a very good placed horse, two decent winners, good job all round! Well done, glad you had a good day.

              Josh 09/11/17 6:11 PM Reply


  • I will be using the ideal conditions for each horse from now on – as I said this was a bit of an experiment and I am trying to fathom out the best way of using the profiles. I hope to have the ideal conditions for each horse from the book and updates by the end of next week.

    14.00 Market Rasen DESERT QUEEN
    Ideal Conditions – Listed races and below, 8 runners or less, good or GTS ground, slightly undulating or undulating tracks – 11111
    Has perfect conditions today and won this race last year yes he was beaten by two runners in this field last season but both of those runs were on soft ground on which he has never won.

    David Peat 09/11/17 9:47 AM Reply


    • Desert Queen
      Ground appears to be G-S and she has been racing over shorter, though she has won G-S, S, over 3 miles
      in her PTP days two years ago.

      Edmund Brooke 09/11/17 12:27 PM Reply


  • Free post.. have put up a video using ‘pace’ as a starting point, 3 potential ‘make all’ horses today, clearly they will all now tail in last/be held up, but with any luck interesting enough!

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/11/08/free-daily-post-091117-hold/

    Josh 09/11/17 9:57 AM Reply


  • There is a cracking card at Newbury today. In the first I think Lostintranslation can upset the Hendo horse who has much superior form. He has had a run and so is fit and is rated highly by the Tizzards. In the 1.40 perhaps Mr Medic can keep improving and is well weighted? In the 2.10 I know Hendo rates Countister highly and so may be worth a go at 7/2? Hendo also highly rates Du Destin in the 3.55 and so the 8/1 available has to be taken.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 09/11/17 10:40 AM Reply


    • Cheers for the input Martin

      joners 09/11/17 11:51 AM Reply


    • As a shareholder in Du Destin, Nicky advises that this primarily educational as the other horse has the PtP experience. Doing his best but expected to benefit from it and as Martin says has always been held in high regard.
      He is a beautiful animal.

      chrisrees 09/11/17 12:18 PM Reply


      • Ben Pauling thinks Stormy Milan is decent and should only be about 10/1; hopeful of a place.

        chrisrees 09/11/17 12:25 PM Reply


        • Stormy milan runs for charlie longsdon.

          danny3433 09/11/17 12:43 PM Reply


          • Sorry, half asleep, bad night 🙁

            chrisrees 09/11/17 1:39 PM Reply


            • Du Destin very green; probably going hurdling (2.5m+) as Nico thinks he’s too slow for a bumper.

              chrisrees 09/11/17 7:48 PM Reply


      • I thought that the circa 8/1 was value in such a race and so have had to have a few quid on.

        martin colwell 09/11/17 1:16 PM Reply


    • Apologies for my dire tips today and yesterday. I will keep quiet on Friday but may have some nice ones for Saturday.

      In the football Northern Ireland go off at 3/1 this evening at home to Switzerland, who I think are overrated.

      martin colwell 09/11/17 4:33 PM Reply


  • Good call on Tempuran. Thanks Josh!

    Neil 09/11/17 3:02 PM Reply


    • Another to add to The pot well done josh.

      Warren bottomley 09/11/17 3:15 PM Reply


  • And poppy may goes in. Nice one josh

    Warren bottomley 09/11/17 3:36 PM Reply


    • Cheers gents, yep been a good day across the board all told (free post/members/all comments etc) we shall see if Crookstown can add the cherry on top, I fear it may be asking too much mind.
      I may have had a bit more than £5 on Tempuran in the end, when I saw them circling and it was evident he would definitely get an easy lead- wonderful ride, dossed in front for the most part..helped that the 4/5 behind, most of them were keen so jockeys happy to sit off and try and settle. worked a treat, used his old flat speed to kick turning in. Job done.

      Josh 09/11/17 3:39 PM Reply


  • I actually put up an order of 11.0 on vinndication earlier in the day when it was trading at around 8s,luckily it got matched even though the bfsp was just under 11.0,not sure if anyone else trys this tactic instead of putting up a minimum odds bfsp

    christopher jones 09/11/17 4:29 PM Reply


    • Well done, I can see the merit to that approach if you want a bigger price and this time it paid off… to clarify, and not for you but anyone who may read that and be confused…he did not qualify on any strategies, and would not have done even if his BFSP was 11.00 or bigger. Strategy #2 is simply 10/-25/1 on morning prices… I don’t want any S2 followers reading that and thinking they should have set the price on BF! 🙂

      Josh 09/11/17 4:32 PM Reply


    • Yes I do. I have said on here before I am continually surprised what you can get horses matched at on the exchanges. Nothing to lose. I sometimes go in on a Wednesday for Saturday racing, get matched and then lay off at race time when they shorten. Surprising how many tomes it works.

      martin colwell 09/11/17 4:37 PM Reply


  • Quick flick through the Chelmsford card.
    One that caught the eye ICKYMASHO 7:15
    He is a front runner which is what is needed at Chelmsford with its tight turns.
    On its best form it looks to be off a good mark now it’s back in handicaps. 20/1 looks overpriced to me.

    Warren bottomley 09/11/17 5:02 PM Reply


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