Free Daily Post: 07/11/17 (complete)

TIPS

3.05 Exet

Royal Palladium – 1 point win – 11/1 (PP/BetfS) 10/1 (SB) 9/1 Gen 3rd 

Swincombe Scorchio – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/SB/Coral/BV) UP

You Say What – 1/2 point win – 20/1, 18/1 (gen) UP 7/1

*no excuse there…i’d have preferred the second to have got up for a members’ system, or Royal Palladium to have held on… credit to the winner, in that ground, given his unknown quantity under rules, I was happy to take on at 10/3 and can live with that. To lug 12-4 around in that ground is rather impressive – he clearly has stamina to burn and you could see him plodding to victory in a muddy Welsh National say, or other long distance chases. I get the impression he may just keep galloping in those conditions. The Pipe horse was very well punted and ran ok for a time. 

Well the rain has come to a degree and that has made me get off the fence- were this ‘good’ then I think i’d have left it. But they had 6mm overnight and a band of rain is expected between 11am-2pm- we have been here before! Either way I will just assume it may be sticky and hard work. Here’s hoping.

Royal Palladium… this is the true test of whether Venetia is in or out of form. There is more to her figures than meets the eye – for example 8 of her last 20 runners, since that winner at Carlisle (which gave the impression she had been able to get them fit at home), have been sent off at 16/1 or bigger, and she doesn’t have many go in at that end of the market. There have been plenty of handicap hurdlers, the odd horse run well, the odd one not so well. Either way, for the last two years this horse has run his best race on his first start of the season, including a win here. With the claim he is handicapped to go well enough again and races where I like them to be – up there on the front end. He will try and lead and if on song should travel sweetly enough, either out on his own or ready to take it up in the final mile or so. A bit more rain would help but he has won on GS. He is being well backed, no doubt tipped in a few places, and if a1 should go well. Double figures looked a few points too big, as does 9s or so. He was worth a dart. I don’t think Venetia is ‘out of form’ as such, but we are about to find out I think. No excuses here for a bold show.

Swincombe Scorchio – hmm… 12s/14s, allows a dabble here. If he were trained by a bigger name he would be a bit shorter in this I think. He simply ‘could be anything’ in handicap chases this year, including handicapped up to his best! But, this is only his 3rd handicap chase and second with ‘soft’ somewhere in the going description. He fairly bolted up at Chepstow two starts ago and I think may have hated the going/found it happening too quick, at Cheltenham on his next start. The trainer can ready them after a break and has had a few winners in the 14/1-20/1 range, so a lack of market support wouldn’t concern me too much. Clearly at this time of year you are taking a chance on fitness and that is why I want a price. In his last Novice chase he finished a length behind Rock The Kasbah who was rated 144 at the time. He came out a couple of weeks back and won a decent C2 handicap chase at Chepstow. This horse has something about him. He likes to race up there, if having the pace to do so, and with any luck can get into a rhythm. RH is a question, but only that. He just has a very unexposed profile and I thought looked interesting in this line up. He will stay and handle soft if more rain comes. I was happy to roll the dice.

Of the rest… well I decided I was happy to take on Jonjo’s, it would have been a cop out not to do so. If this goes soft, 3m around here, RH, undulating track, big field of hardy sorts- well it will be a totally new experience. That makes his price short. He may handle it fine and bolt up but he has plenty of questions to answer, in the context of his price. Definitley Grey has some going concerns esp if even more rain comes and he has been hammered by the handicapper. Soft and RH are both unknowns over fences. He has a 17lb rise in the handicap and a step up in class to cope with. All in all, just a few too many questions given he was 8s, but no forlorn hope. I won’t fall off my seat if he runs well. Ask The Weatherman- well he is just hard to weigh up and I would be guessing a bit really as to how he will cope under rules. He does have a big weight if this turns soft. I will just leave him and hope he isn’t chucked in, the handicapper doesn’t appear to have been lenient.

Dangers… well, Wizards Bridge is probably the main danger…if on a going day/running as well as LTO…that was a much weaker race and he can tend to hit a fence, lose his position, and then rally again. He usually follows a win with a shocker and isn’t one to trust but 11/1 is probably too big. I’m not convinced by him.  He and my two were on my shortlist of 3, at the prices, and we know how this goes! He has the form in the book to figure and a jockey who can clearly get a tune out of him. Castarnie… has a class question I think and can need the run… has two ways of running as well- they can hold him up, in which case he will probably hit a fence when trying to close, or they have tries to make all. I think he may find this a bit too hot but again isn’t a forlorn hope, albeit he is on a career high mark. Walford’s handicap chasers sent off 14/1+ are now 0/18,3p, so the market appears to be some sort of guide. Small numbers though.

You Say What  is the dark horse and a bit of an unknown.. second start for Pipe, headgear/TT on, he had some decent enough hurdle form for Neil King before losing his way. He is completely unexposed over fences and ‘could be anything’. As I ponder this one, and how strange a race this feels, I have convinced myself to have a dart at that price… he could cause a shock here on only his 4th chase start, I wouldn’t put it past him. He has course form over timber, stays, handles mud…could be thrown in! (or useless)

 

PACE… well my two will try and be up there and hopefully RP can get the lead, with the other just tracking him.

 

*

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1<) (she is now 0/15,1p last 14 days…)

3.05 Exet – Royal Palladium 3rd

K Lee (12/1<)

2.00 Exet- Gino Trail (x 2 angles) 3rd

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test

2.00 Exet – Gino Trail (12/1< ) 3rd

G McPherson (any)

3.35 – Rio Bravo

*

That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • The Going will be key at Exeter with heavy rain due to arrive at midnight for about 12 hours.

    What is even more difficult to assess is the Official Going of Good / Good to Soft in places on Racing Post and Course website and a Going Stick Rating of 5.1 on Chase course; slightly softer than 5.3 on Hurdles Course.

    Soft though is not a word you could associate with readings of 5.1 and 5.3 since the excellent Turf Trax Report which logs Going Stick for every Course in UK at each meeting; indicates that Good Ground should have a Going Sick of 7. something; Soft a reading of 6. something and even heaviest in recent times was higher up the 5. than that advertised tonight.

    All very confusing and what chance does a punter have with such contradictory data??

    ian@sp2a 06/11/17 8:17 PM Reply


  • Wizards Bridge Exeter Tuesday 15:05 1pt e/w-Call me mad but really want to take on the top 3 in the market. Looks an absolutely horrible favourite who has had one run in a weak beginners chase on good ground on a totally different track and Jonjo has a shocking 1/28 record in handicap chases here over the past 4 years. The 2nd fav could be anything but again considering Darran tipped him up for the Foxhunters so if he was chucked in we would have all had an email from him 4 hours ago. Plenty of question marks about him including the lay-off. Plus he has to carry 12st4lbs here on ground that could be testing. I guess the Longsdon horse could still be on the up but he is up 18lbs and has no form whatsoever on soft ground and Charlie is 0/8 here in the past 5 years in handicap chases. I did look at Royal Palladium but Venetia’s form puts me off a little although he certainly would be a surprise winner. The pick normally runs an absolutely shocker on seasonal re-appearance so I thought it eye-catching that he won 1st time out this year (Whilst not a direct form line he did beat Strumble Head by 20 lengths who was in good form all autumn and had beaten 2 future class 3 winners on his previous start). He looks very well treated considering he is effectively racing off a mark of 114 and he has gone close in the past off 131. He has won a novice chase over course and distance at the track at this meeting 2 years ago. I think Bastyan is one of the best conditionals out there and is well worth his 5lbs and he has already won on the horse. The horse has won on good and is arguably better on soft so won’t mind the rain (has won on heavy as a 5 year old as well). He has the 2nd lowest weight tomorrow which could be crucial. He is also one of 3 here who are race fit. Tizzard has a solid record here and has been going OK with another winner today. He is 3/5, 4p in November so this is his time. Should be able to track the pace here and looked solid to me.

    Nick Mazur 06/11/17 9:28 PM Reply


  • 1.50 REDCAR
    QAFFAAL 16/1

    Sum’at different as Josh would say!

    115 Days Off
    Top Weight
    Normally runs C2 AW, placed 3 from 4 over distance. No form on Soft
    Callum Rodriguez 3lb claimer 14% this year, Mick Easterby 14% last 14 days +£17.88
    This is a quick horse, feels like an Easterby plot.

    Edmund Brooke 07/11/17 12:26 AM Reply


  • Comb f/c and t/c then Josh? Got to be worth a dabble at those odds I think. GL!
    Doug

    dougandnicky 07/11/17 9:48 AM Reply


    • ha, well I wouldn’t want to jinx your own efforts in that regard! As I pondered it does feel a strange race… I wouldn’t be shocked if all three finished tired/tailed in, if the fav bolted up, is Wizards bridge put two good runs together, if Castarnie somehow made all! You want a price on one. One of those, I couldn’t resist now that there is some squelch in the turf. You’d be riding your luck to get two in a row!

      Josh 07/11/17 9:52 AM Reply


      • Absolutely mate! Got to be in it to win it though and the analysis is so excellent I can’t resist!

        dougandnicky 07/11/17 10:47 AM Reply


  • 1.00 Ex, Bardista, for Pauling, 16/1, EW. The horse is expected to go chasing and do well but needs a run or two over hurdles first. Maybe 16/1 is too good to let it go unbacked?
    2.00 Ex, San Benedeto, EW. Bryony takes 5 LB off and can get him jumping, has had a run and STD may be on the wrong one for PN?
    I too can see Wizards Bridge going well in the 3.05 at 12/1. Bastina is good for 5LB as Nick M has said.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 07/11/17 10:25 AM Reply


  • GOLF BETS OHL CLASSIC
    Gary Woodland 1 point ew 1/5 7 22/1 CO plenty of 22/1 but with different terms
    showed enough for me at Summerlin where he finished 18th for him to be in the mix again after a fine second here last year
    Jason Kokrack 1 point ew 1/5 7 40/1 CO PP
    played three times at El Camaleon and as had a top 20 finish each time not the most competitive tournament this year and the 40/1 is good value

    colin leafe 07/11/17 10:50 AM Reply


    • Nice one colin.

      Warren bottomley 07/11/17 2:38 PM Reply


  • The step up to 7f looks the right move for Up sticks and go
    12.20 Redcar
    Ela mana mou is in his pedigree so that should see him relish the extra furlong and he has been running on in all his races over 5 and 6f.

    With 4 runs under his belt wont lose out because of inexperience
    will go very close and 11/4 with Ladbrokes Paddy P and Stan James
    looks a decent bet

    PETER 07/11/17 11:25 AM Reply


    • Wouldn’t have played but for reading your judgement; thanks.

      chrisrees 07/11/17 12:28 PM Reply


      • Thanks Chris,
        I have come to the conclusion that I can’t find the big priced winners
        like Josh or Ian on a regular enough basis to be confident
        but They have taught me a lot and it is even worse to go for
        horses that are very short prices
        As a non handicap player I am looking for value as much as the handicap kings
        In non handicap hurdles and Chases
        80% or races are won by the first 3 in the betting.

        Two year old races 76% first 3 in the market
        flat stakes race turf and all weather 81%

        if you take out fields bigger than 11 you have about an 86%
        strike rate with the first 3 in the market.

        If you can narrow the three down to two
        then you have value

        so in a 9 runner novice chase
        a horse out of the first three in the market has a 14%
        chance winning on average

        so 7/1 against means only 1 in 8 races are going to be won by a horse
        not in the first three in the betting

        The field size is important because in a 20 runner Novice chase
        you have 17 horses who could be winners
        and in such a big field the favourites could fall
        or be hampered
        in 4 -6 runner races although the first 3 in the market still win 80+%
        there is less leverage with the prices and small field can often become tactical
        blowing form out the window

        so 7-11 runners is the area where you can have an edge
        and if you look at the prices and the 4th horse in the betting is
        10/1 plus and the favourite isn’t odds on you may well find the bet

        Peter 07/11/17 12:49 PM Reply


        • Axe Cap lacked the early pace from stall
          8 and got in all sorts of trouble
          before coming through for 2nd
          may be worth a try at Newcastle where they run in a straight line
          quite often in these a/w races round a bend everything tightens up
          and horses get mullered early and struggle to win even if they are the best horse

          peter 07/11/17 1:41 PM Reply


          • 4.20 is an interesting little race 7 runners
            7/4 restive
            3/1 outback blue
            3/1 coroberee
            12/1 bar 3
            so fits in with the criteria

            so lets have a look at the there main contenders
            Restive C/D winner and a decent 6th in a better race at Newcastle last time so looks to have a decent chance
            but the lowest rated of the three and has never won on soft ground
            Coroberee highest rated proven on soft ran down the field last time but that was in a grade 3 handicap
            Thrown in if he runs up to his best form
            but regressed over the hurdles for the Skeltons and flogged on to Tony Coyle
            highly suggests that this one isn’t the horse he was
            could hack up but no proven recent form and a risky play

            Outback Blue solid horse for this grade
            but needs Restive not to handle the ground and Coroberee
            to run below form, not beyond the realms of possibility
            but you would be backing this one on default
            at 3/1 could be the one but if you back him and one of the other two finish in front
            you would be asking why you backed a lesser horse

            So Although the race fits the criteria numbers wise
            the doubts about the two form horses make it a guess if you bet in the race

            peter 07/11/17 2:14 PM Reply


            • Well.
              Restive beaten by the ground
              Coroberee ran way below form and Outback Blue
              not good enough to win even with the other two
              running below par so correct analysis to not play in this race
              so one of the race races of this type not won by one of the first three in the market
              but there were plenty of doubts about all three of them to be wary

              peter 07/11/17 2:29 PM Reply


        • Peter – finding long priced winners can leave a glow a bit like a warm porridge but equally cold spells can be very frustrating. I find that when in the zone they jump off the page, when not; they don’t and you see some glaring misses…one just happened with Dancing Shadow at 9/1 – hindsight is a great thing and when in form that would have jumped off the page. There for all to see – will need to borrow some Opus Dei kit for that one!

          Onwards and upwards though!

          ian@sp2a 07/11/17 2:07 PM Reply


          • This is a game where you don’t have to beat the bookmakers
            you have to beat yourself.

            The human mind is so fickled and inconsistent
            that although it can make tremendous calculations
            but it will is also miss plenty of vital info
            and is prone to prejudice and judgements not based on the facts.

            after the race the mistakes are often so obvious it is laughable

            peter 07/11/17 2:22 PM Reply


  • Jack Barber strikes again.

    geoffwylde 07/11/17 3:17 PM Reply


    • indeed, happy to take on at that price – to do that, in that ground, with 12-4 on back is impressive… a dour stayer..note that down for many a test in the future- he just kept galloping.

      Josh 07/11/17 3:19 PM Reply


  • Sick result that between, me, Josh and the systems that’s 2nd/3rd/4th/5th covered. Fair play for him to carry that sort of weight.

    Nick Mazur 07/11/17 3:19 PM Reply


    • Yep, rather unpleasant!

      Josh 07/11/17 3:21 PM Reply


      • I forgot the 6th also 🙁

        Nick Mazur 07/11/17 3:26 PM Reply


      • One of those where an each way strategy can cover a favourite winning, and that was a seriously good run so no complaints.

        However; liking to take on favourites and I always measure minimum success as getting out “level” to fight another day, so with 3rd at 14/1 SP and 4th just a little bit of place shrapnel to have £2 “in running” on a quiet fancy in the next.

        Won’t always pan out that way and you’ll never convince a “win man” to become an “each way man” or vice versa but when up against winning favourites e/w strategy can at least mitigate a loss and pay a bit of shrapnel.

        I get why they are touting ATW for Welsh National but I’d always want proven form round Chepstow as it really is up hill down dale and those undulations that you just can’t appreciate on TV; go and stand in bottom of one, like a big dipper!

        ian@sp2a 07/11/17 3:27 PM Reply


        • so close there, thought for a stride that Quinto would get up, still on early at 33/1 each way.

          what a bummer to see bloody Harry Redknapp owns the winner…aaarrgghh

          ian@sp2a 07/11/17 3:50 PM Reply


  • Bit of an argh day all round really! No complaints here though! Tomorrow is another day!

    dougandnicky 07/11/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • Yep, unpleasant! but, that’s how it goes at the odds we all play at generally, it has been a rather profitable few weeks really, all in, so can’t complain. There will be many more days like this, long term profit, and some fun/excitement/torture along the way, is the main thing! Nothing ever really looked like winning in truth, not come the business end, and that is always annoying. on we go.

      Josh 07/11/17 5:54 PM Reply


  • Is it in his dogs name

    Roddo 07/11/17 6:06 PM Reply


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