Members Daily Post: 06/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

JUMPS

Southwell

1.00- Dotties Dilema (all hncps) H3 9/2 WON 9/2>7/1 

1.30 – Gorran Haven (nov hncp) H1 I1 G1 7/2  S4 UP 2/1 

 

Plumpton

3.10- Ding Ding (m2) I1 20/1 S2   WON 20/1> 16/1 (21.8 BFSP) 

3.40 – Hardtorock (m1) I3 6/1  PU

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/122, +134.5)

NOTES

Gorran Haven…  UP 7/2>2/1… well, I will never be backing that horse again I don’t think! Never going a yard…they should clearly have kept the headgear on! Line through that,moving on quickly. At least we beat the market, which is always important,even when they run like that. Awful.  dare I say it but he looks well worth a go at 7/2 for me… lightly raced, this being his fourth handicap chase start, he takes the step up to 3m here – which could be key. Sean Bowen has been booked and he appears to be the preferred choice these days (as an aside… I thought Andrew Thornton was superb on ITV, a definite future as a broadcaster) and is a sign of intent. I used to be concerned about fitness with Bailey’s after a break but she appears to have changed things in the last couple of years…indeed in the last two years, those returning to Southwell after 60+ days are 4/12,8p. He will be fit enough if they want him to be. Finally, my assessment that 7/2 is decent (and that he could well go off a point or more shorter) is also in the context that this is a shocker of a race. Everything in here has serious questions and that fav seems short given his first two runs for the yard. Maybe they have found the key and he will have plenty in hand. The headgear and TT has been removed from the selection which I found of some interest. They must think he will stay this trip and given how weak a race this is he must be going close. I may be riding my luck to get two shorties (anything under 9/2 is a shorty in my book) right in the space of a few days, time will tell!

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

none.

Note… Jack Barber runs Posh Totty in the 4.10 Plumpton… maybe a bit short for me but may make 2/1 look massive… Darran Pearce (hunter chase/P2P expert) thinks, based on her pointing form she could have upwards of 30lb in hand here! She has been given a rating based on her old rules form which is no reflection of her recent ability in the pointing world. She also runs in a race where you don’t get a penalty for winning and is entered in two days time at Chepstow. Fitness won’t be an issue. Interesting. We shall see if she wins like a 1/3 shot!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: Advised Strategies

Summary (updated links in Key to follow) (30th Oct- 5th November)

FLAT

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/13,4p, +2
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/11,3p, +4

 

JUMPS

  • Backing all strategy quals (Strat #1-4) every time they hit a strategy: 1/36,8p, -28
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/29,6p, -21 

 

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/49,12p, -26
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/40,9p, -17 

 

NOTES (section 2) : 2/8, +12

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Thoughts…

We were due a reminder that this game isn’t easy and that I/we haven’t found an endless magic money tree, not when it comes down to just systematic betting. In the four weeks prior to this I think the advised strategies, backing just once, were around the +60 point mark, so some correction was overdue. Averaging +15 points a week, just ‘backing once’, would be a bit mad and is unrealistic. (i think, we can hope)

It was also over-due for strategy #2 over jumps, (all Jumps qualifiers section 1, 10/1-25/1 on morning prices) which has a long term 10% sr, and had been operating way above that since the start of September. That strategy is responsible for -17 points of those losses this week and it could/will get worse before it gets better. That could be seen as a ‘normal’ losing run for that strategy, it has hit 40+ losers in a row before, and will again. Clearly all of those results are in the long term context of how the strategies have been performing in 2017.

We may have another week just like that. Not impossible. Hence the need for sensible staking early on, building up over time and adequate betting banks (please check out the ‘IMPORTANT’ link in the Key if you haven’t done so already) 

If you had started betting at the start of September, or even October, you may be happy enough with progress. If you started last Monday you’d be wondering what is going on. That’s the game we play and hence why patience and long term understanding is important, especially if you take a systematic approach to all content.

I would note, that within those results above there were second placed horses… the majority going very very close, including 4 that were 10/1+ or bigger. It’s a game of fine margins and if just two of those had got their head in front, it would have been a profitable week. That’s racing. On this occasion, this week at least, my own subjective take on the qualifiers (‘Notes’, section 2) helped limit any damage, if you follow those of course- which obviously I do. 

On we go.

As always, any questions are welcome- or corrections if you think I have made a counting error.

Josh

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Nigel Twiston-Davies

A results update from ‘Twister’ season… which ran in the test zone from the start of September through to end of October, using said research the link to which is in the Key

If you had backed all qualifiers multiple times, every time they hit a micro angle, I believe the results, to early morning|BOG odds, were as follows…

105 bets / 24 wins / +45.5 points (1 point win bets) / + £114 to £2.50 bets, +£ 227.5 to £5 bets

Clearly there will be some differences depending on the prices achieved. But, not bad at all.

If you had just backed any micro qualifier just the once, however many micro angles it hit, I think those results were approximately…

50 bets / 11 wins / +20 points

It was a case of a decent end to the month, with Cogry and Foxtail Hill boosting the profits somewhat and in the case of the ‘backing just once’ making a big difference. That is how it goes with such approaches but happy enough with those results. Hopefully you used the research to back a few winners.

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Test Zone…. I have a new monthly research article that I sent off to The Betting Insiders Club a couple of days back, and will post that up tomorrow. I will clear out some space in my HRB accounts and track said angles- some Course and Distance Jockeys for the Jumps + AW.

The Flat version of the CD Jockeys I think are on… 8/47, -5 points or so, to 1 point win bets.

I need to pull together an All-Weather TTP guide which I will do this week, (As yet I don’t plan to post qualifiers but if you like the AW you can use as you see fit) (i may experiment with a 2 year research window) and maybe add a few more trainer micros to track in the test zone.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

46 Comments

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  • On the tracker a micro jockey angle for DARYL JACOB front runners.
    since 2013
    Novices … 41/80 | 51% S/R | +£82.60 BFLSP
    Distances of less than 2m5f … 48/110 | 44% S/R | +£79.50 BFLSP
    Plumpton 2:10 AM I APPROPRIATE. 9/2

    Warren bottomley 05/11/17 7:34 PM Reply


    • Cheer’s Warren….saves me looking….BOL.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 06/11/17 10:43 AM Reply


  • Shaiyzar Southwell Monday 13:00 1pt e/w-Shaizar looks like a solid e/w bet here. Was placed in a class 4 chase LTO. Drops back to a class 5 here and has been dropped 2lbs since his last run and the claimer takes off a further 5lbs. Really likes it around here and has rarely ran a bad race at Southwell. Is now 7lbs below his last winning mark over hurdles over course and distance a year ago. The 6th of his last race has won a class 4 and the 7th was 2nd in one so the form has been at least partially franked.
    Rothman Plumpton Monday 15:10 1pt e/w-Rothman looks overpriced here. He has been running OK since being switched to Gordon in class 3 and 4s (placed 2nd or 3rd 5 out of 8 outings) without getting his head in front but looks well treated having dropped to a mark of 110. Trainer finally changes things up replacing the hood with cheekpieces. Trainer is 7/35, 12p +49.75 with horse wearing first time cheekpieces since the start of the 2010 jumps season including 2 wins and a second from his last 4 runners. He does really well here and is 9/29, 17p +26 in handicap hurdles here in the past 2 years. Noonan has a very solid 5/17, 8p +9.88 record in handicap hurdles when riding for the trainer. Hopefully tomorrow he can add to that tally.
    Lucy The Painter Kempton Monday 14:20 0.5pt e/w-I want to take a small punt on Lucy the Painter here. She is now 20lbs lower than she was at the start of the year. All her form has been over 1m and she has been running over further. She is also better on the all-weather winning 4 out of her 6 AW handicap starts and drops to a class 4 here. Trainer applies first time blinkers which will hopefully have a positive effect. She is top 3 on both GGG and HRB ratings. She is only 5 so I don’t think she has completely gone off the boil and if the blinkers even spark her back to some semblance of her old form she will be too good for these.

    Nick Mazur 05/11/17 8:37 PM Reply


    • ink I will follow you in there with Rothman,16/1 just too big for a Gordon horse here,where he likes to get winners,just hope pesky bookies don’t pull one out

      gearoid180468 05/11/17 10:21 PM Reply


      • yep, he does now anyway! He was 0/31,7p with his handicap hurdlers here in 2014 and 2015 (hence why he isn’t in the guide, 2 x losing years usually puts them on the watch list) but looks like he has changed tactics now, targeting this track… or he just has more horses suited to the place/better horses etc… 9/28,17p, +27 since start 2016 with handicap hurdlers.
        McCain is a bit like that at Bangor also, with his handicap hurdlers. Last two years seen a real surge… maybe I need to go back and pull out any 2016- eye poppers!

        GL Nick, cracking reasoning as always.
        Josh

        Josh 06/11/17 8:37 AM Reply


        • 2nd to start the day but always felt comfortable we were at least placing there.

          Nick Mazur 06/11/17 1:15 PM Reply


          • Well done Nick,got it spot on

            gearoid180468 06/11/17 3:37 PM Reply


    • Ha, I never back Keniry on a 2yo and didn’t notice he was on Lucy today until after the off. He is only 7% at Kempton and I may well extend a blanket ban to him. He is like Steve Drowne, needs to hang up his spurs.
      I never mind losing but can’t imagine that happpening with Kingscote up.
      Hugh

      alpha2 06/11/17 2:26 PM Reply


  • I was at an event last week and I met a guy named David Maxwell. He was introduced as a racehorse owner but when chatting to him he said that he was also an amateur jockey. He said that he was riding his own horse in a race at Plumpton on Monday and that it would most certainly win. The horse is Chef D’Equipe and runs in the 3.10. He is currently priced at 3/1. That is it really. Good luck.

    martin colwell 05/11/17 9:37 PM Reply


    • Sounds like a wee forecast with Nick’s pick might be in order.

      Neil 05/11/17 11:33 PM Reply


    • His mark based on french form looked pretty decent , the ground might be a worry but the jockey may be an even bigger concern having never ridden in a hurdle race before ?….11/4 on the books but 7/1 on the exchange

      Al the best and Thanks for sharing that snippet

      joners 06/11/17 8:06 AM Reply


      • I’d much rather trust him over hurdles than fences haha – Maxwell … well he does buy them to ride himself and this one cost 130k. He bought one from France, trained by Hobbs, who won cosily at Wetherby a couple of weeks back- despite some shoddy jumps up the straight which were down to the rider – he is far from a pro and usually races in hunter chases – but is running his horses in ‘standard’ races more. If Johnson were on that winner he would have won by 10l+, thankfully had plenty of hand. He leaves a lot to be desired in the finish and unless his horse has plenty in hand (this one could) he can be in trouble- when up against pros. Good on him I suppose, if you are going to spend that much money on your hobby you can do what you want! He can ride, but I would rarely want to take a short price on his mounts!

        Josh 06/11/17 8:14 AM Reply


        • The guy who I knew who knew David Maxwell thought that he genuinely thought he would win the 3.10 based upon the horse’s ability. We shall see? I have had a bet on it as I will feel stupid if I dont and he wins it after being told.

          I did Posh Totty at evens last night. I also like Generous Day 3.00 Southwell, I know it is up i grade but can hopefully step forward?

          At least the two runners at Plumpton make a Monday more interesting than usual.

          Good luck.

          martin colwell 06/11/17 9:44 AM Reply


    • Unlucky Martin , I think the jockey cost you there ?

      joners 06/11/17 3:25 PM Reply


      • i’m the first to lay blame at Maxwell’s door – but in fairness, that horse was known for being keen in france apparently (saw some tweets pre race) and given the break, he has just done too much- clearly Maxwell couldn’t settle him, but I doubt any pros would have done so there- has used up so much energy. Albeit nothing was beating little Ding Ding today!

        Josh 06/11/17 3:27 PM Reply


        • I watched him drift to 9/1 and so did the each way. Interesting horse next time but jockey dependent. He looked as if he was the size of Denman.

          martin colwell 06/11/17 4:06 PM Reply


          • The problem you have is he always likes to ride his own horses.

            Nick Mazur 06/11/17 4:09 PM Reply


  • Looking like Posh Totty could be going off at closer to 1/3 than the 3/1 that was around earlier. Just wondering if anyone has been following Darran’s tips, and how they’ve been doing?

    Neil 05/11/17 11:35 PM Reply


    • I don’t think he has been doing many/any racing ‘tips’, saving himself for the Hunter Chase season I think, albeit still emails out to his Hunter Chase list with tip bits like above, esp if spotting any pointers running under rules he thinks are well handicapped. Suspect he will do a results round-up before his next Hunter chase efforts, i’ve no idea how they did. He is worth following on twitter, esp if you like your non-league football..tips plenty in that sphere, and I am about to post up a Melbourne Cup preview from him.
      Josh

      Josh 06/11/17 7:26 AM Reply


  • I thought Grant Cann’s two runners, both ridden by Nick Schofield, of interest at Southwell.
    100 How’s My Friend was 30l clear of the third on last chase run and had been rated 110.
    130 Goosen Maverick has been highly tried in two chases; now off 78 in C5 and backed.

    chrisrees 06/11/17 9:04 AM Reply


  • hi josh , thanks for the update on results using the strategies , i agree with everything you say .
    yes it’s been a bad last week but it had to come !
    i was fortunate enough to start off in october so i did well then .
    if i could make 20 – 25 pts a month consistently i would be happy with that , so at the end of my 4 month trial 80-100 pts up .
    my record at the moment starting on october 1st is 27#193-14% —-42.13 pts profit .

    steve 06/11/17 11:29 AM Reply


    • Yep, as with everything it is about timing, with any luck the long term results, and rationale (esp that of the ratings pointers which are a constant) gives many long term confidence. But the proof is always in the eating.

      In truth I have no idea what members’ expectations are or what they judge success on- it will vary no doubt (i should do a questionnaire and find out!) – clearly I try and offer a bit more than just profitable ideas/strategies- but ultimately that is what everything in this game is judged on, and rightly so. Ideally for ‘recreational stakes’ enough to cover subs, have some fun, offer something engaging, and leave an amount at the end of the season to spend on x,y,z.

      I would add, if you had followed my ‘notes’ since I did a results recap and started designating them as ‘Notes’ properly, with an updated p/l from the 6th Oct,when they were on +82.5 points, you’d have added another +52 points up until yesterday, which even for £2 bets say isn’t too bad 🙂

      on we go, hopefully a few nice winners/profit this week… at the beginning of the year it was very odd, months interchanged with Jan massive profits, Feb losses, and then repeat, until end of April, with overall decent results. of course those who started at either beginning of Feb, or April, probably didn’t stay around for very long 🙂 (hence in part an extended trial,21 days just not enough)

      Josh

      Josh 06/11/17 1:10 PM Reply


  • Does anyone have a sheet to track the bets for the different strategies?

    Marcel 06/11/17 12:01 PM Reply


    • What do you mean by a sheet Marcel? A spreadsheet or something? I update the links in the Key weekly, broken down by different strategies. (only total bets, PL etc, not a detailed record for each horse as such) I always advise keeping some loose results yourself as obviously the odd price may vary and that is the truest reflection, only needs to be a simple P/L. (any many will follow different bits a pieces) But, from the info in the Key etc you should be able to get a good feel for how any one strategy is doing over time.
      As yet I haven’t kept detailed spreadsheets against the strategies, but when I come to update the master spreadsheets I could record by strategy.
      Josh

      Josh 06/11/17 12:45 PM Reply


      • Yes a spreadsheet. I have some other strategies myself.

        Marcel 06/11/17 2:00 PM Reply


  • Back in business again with dotties Josh

    gearoid180468 06/11/17 1:07 PM Reply


    • Cant say i backed him! 9/2 was too short to my eyes this morning given the profile/last couple of runs.. returns 7/1 SP, walked through the door having been out just as it started- and that SP makes me feel uncomfortable haha – hindsight mind, no idea if 7s this morning if I would have given him more of a chance- weak race, and one of few proven over the distance- Bowen had been a bit chilly but signs in the last couple of weeks that they are all fine again.
      Sounds like you had a go, and as long as someone on here does that’s the main thing!

      Josh 06/11/17 1:13 PM Reply


      • I wouldn’t have backed it normally but like yourself noted that yard was picking up again,yes they must have had over 20 losers on the trot,hoping Tom George has an upturn ahead of tomorrows meeting at Exeter.Think I had Valentino Oyster there last year

        gearoid180468 06/11/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • Yes indeed , nice start to the day with Dotties … well done
    oh btw , not sure if you noticed Josh but you have tomorrows date on todays free post

    joners 06/11/17 1:12 PM Reply


    • I’ve noticed now! cheers.

      Josh 06/11/17 1:29 PM Reply


  • One for tomorrow at a price 1.10 Wolverhampton Alaskan Boy
    Rae Guest does well with 2yo there,not consistantly having winners every year but when they do usually its at a working mans price.This one has absolutely nothing to recommend it except it might do better on the artifical surface
    The Positives.Guest has had a winner recently
    David Probert is 2 from 4 with the hid 2yo,not a large sample but
    offers hope
    Tissue price is 20/1

    gearoid180468 06/11/17 1:29 PM Reply


  • BOOOOMMM!!!!!!!!!!

    Josh 06/11/17 3:18 PM Reply


  • Ding Dong! Ding Ding

    Darren 06/11/17 3:19 PM Reply


  • ding ding ding ding,that wipes out last weeks losses in day

    gearoid180468 06/11/17 3:19 PM Reply


  • Ding ding! That’ll do nicely.

    Neilmck 06/11/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • Ding ding! Nice forecast too with Nick’s pick!! Fantastic!!!

    dougandnicky 06/11/17 3:27 PM Reply


    • I never do that sodding bet haha- 175/1 as well, beers on you haha. Well done. ‘Team RTP’ has the first three sewn up there from Section 1 + comments. Super job.

      Josh 06/11/17 3:29 PM Reply


      • Like to do comb f/c Josh, two from three and I did with this one. Never do the t/c though and guess what my third pick was based on the posts today lol. Can’t be greedy though!

        dougandnicky 06/11/17 3:35 PM Reply


  • funny thing is i was watching the snooker earlier on and ding was playing .
    lovely win that !

    steve 06/11/17 3:28 PM Reply


  • That Maxwell is an eejit with more money than sense,but of a more serious note the Hobbs horses are not up to usual standard,emptying out,might be more bad hay doing the rounds

    gearoid180468 06/11/17 3:32 PM Reply


    • Hmm maybe, I know Mulholland had that problem… in fairness, that horse emptied out due to pulling like a train- and i’m not sure a pro would have done much better trying to settle him- when they are like that I don’t mind sending them forward/letting them cart you to the front, as sometimes that can settle them when no other horses in front. What with the time off, that has just sapped at his energy reserves.
      Still, we won’t complain! He plugged on ok up the hill.
      He must have a lot of cash…spends so much on very nice horses, just so he can have a hack around haha.

      Josh 06/11/17 3:35 PM Reply


  • System picks 2 Nick 0 but at least I had them both e/w so not a bad day and £12.5 at 20/1 is sort of nice too given the number of 2nds from them recently.

    Nick Mazur 06/11/17 4:00 PM Reply


    • You would have to work a week or more for some gobshite to earn that Nick

      gearoid180468 06/11/17 4:27 PM Reply


      • Depends on what you do Gerry. But for me its more about semi-professional pride. Far more fun when my own picks win and £17.5 e/w at 14s would resulted in more. Not that I am complaining.

        Nick Mazur 06/11/17 4:40 PM Reply


        • I do usually cheer yours home Nick, but on this occasion was rather pleased you came second! haha. 🙂 I think you can be pleased with your days work but we are both cut from the same cloth in terms of ‘own picks’, semi-professional pride, and wanting to be right!

          Josh 06/11/17 5:01 PM Reply


          • Luckily I follow the 10/1+ Inform Ratings qualifiers or I would have been a little more pissed off particularly as I had nothing on the 1st one (and my 3rd horse totally missed the start). They certainly needed the result more than me. Plus I follow your system picks win only as advised so would have had nothing from you the other way round.

            Yeah certainly nice to get back into a semblance of form having left 2 double priced winners last week that I had tipped to win on their previous starts.

            Nick Mazur 06/11/17 5:09 PM Reply


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