Free Daily Post: 05/11/17 (complete)

TIPS

(2017: 145 bets / 16 wins / +102 points)

2.30 Carlisle

Beggars Cross – 1.5 pt win – 11/2 (gen) UP

Bindon Mill – 1.5 pt win – 8/1 (gen) UP

 

*should have stayed in bed! 🙂 Bindon Mill has never really got going…Beggars Cross… well that was underwhelming… whatever that ground is I don’t think he has handled it.. ‘holding’ apparently.. maybe he just hasn’t run his race.. given how three of the top four are old staying warriors with more stamina between them than the rest added together, it would suggest it has been a proper slog. Not much good to soft in that going! Well done Harry The Viking, what a horse. I was nowhere near him and thought one of the more progressive/younger ones, would have his measure here.  I thought he would find that sharp enough on that ‘going’ on his seasonal reappearance and this was deeper than the race he returned in last year. I really did expect better there. Never mind. The one to take from that is Two Smoking Barrels I think – a decent stayer in the making, she travelled into that well before the lack of run/hill, may have caught up with her. 

 

Beggars Cross… I think 11/2 is fair here and on what he has done over fences/his profile he could be a bit shorter. He arrives here fit, in form, and seemingly open to progress a bit this season. He could be another ‘Go Conquer’ in that he will simply be a much better horse this year – there is a chance this extra couple of furlongs and stiff climb to the line brings out even more in him. He has looked like a dour stayer, esp at Doncaster and LTO at Warwick. This is his first go chasing RH so that is a bit of an unknown but everything else looks fine. Given so many have fitness/form questions in this, I think that makes his price acceptable. Hopefully Aidan tracks the pace and doesn’t have him too far away from the Fav who may be up there. He should run his race.

Bindon Mill… 8/1 seemed generous enough for another lightly raced handicap chaser who is open to improvement this season. There is a chance that he comes on from his last run where he ran ok, provided 12 days has been a long enough break for him. RH/undulating tracks clearly pose no problem and he is another who looks well worth a crack at 26f. Again I hope his jockey attempts to track the pace rather than being held up too far back. I thought he looked solid enough in this and 8/1 looked more than reasonable.

Of the rest… well Templeross may win this but he disappointed on return LTO and now steps back up in trip, which may help. But, this is only his second chase start and as such his price was short enough for me. He could relish conditions and do this well but given that lack of experience and the fact he has stamina to prove, he just felt short enough. Should run a good race though and these fences are some of the more easier ones around. He jumped well enough on chase debut. Nothing else really jumped out at me – given there are three chasers in this who arrive here fit, and all open to improvement, I thought the rest may have their work cut out. I am guessing as to fitness for many and on this occasion I suppose I have gone for  the boring/safe route! Sometimes that pays off.

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1<)

2.30 Carl – Waldorf Salad DNQ

K Lee (12/1<)

2.30 Carl – Russe Blanc DNQ

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

1.30 Carl – Just Minded (12/1<)

2.15 Hunt – Britanio Bello (14/1<)

3.20 Hunt – Spy In The Sky (12/1<)

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • I mentioned a horse I have a small stake in here a few weeks ago and she makes seasonal debut at Carlisle today in 2.00 race.

    VERSIFIER has a nice pedigree sired by Yeates and is in great hands with Oliver Sherwood. Leighton usually rides but is at Huntingdon today and Thomas Garner gets leg up. The horse has shown some promise but is basically a galloper with no real change of pace. The Trainer and Syndicate have taken their time with her and believe she needs soft ground.

    I personally think a track like Carlisle might suit her in the long term as it can suit a galloper and nullify the lack of a kick and I think that the ideal trip will turn out to be 18-19 furlongs this year. She goes up in the box to Carlisle with another stable runner basically to get guaranteed good ground. She swerved possible entries at Fakenham and Taunton on Wednesday (too firm) and may not have gone to Carlisle had the rains come sooner in the South.

    I am reliably informed that she is ready to race but may need to run, quite fizzy possibly and the run will calm her down, but she is a nice long term prospect, and being out of Yeates should certainly pay her way.

    I’m looking for a nice “tube opener” today, a solid run, mid field and no more and I absolutely don’t think she will be bottomed out once feeling the pain up the hill, yard is way too caring and sensible for that!

    I would hope to be able at some point this winter to advise you when she may have a strong winning chance based on feedback from yard.

    ian@sp2a 05/11/17 10:12 AM Reply


    • Good luck today with Versifier. You may not fancy her but O Sherwood has a very good record at the track
      three wins and two 2nds from 7 runners in the last 4 yrs, and oddly enough all in November.

      ian straker 05/11/17 11:06 AM Reply


      • Would be nice Ian if unexpected and I have a hunch Bering Upson might be a nice prospect too for a canny yard.

        ian@sp2a 05/11/17 11:26 AM Reply


        • i have backed Bering Upsun, 200 carl., shrewd operator Ewart and very profitable hcap hurdlers so far this season.

          jamesm 05/11/17 12:37 PM Reply


          • Good Luck with that one James, a Trainer i always look at up north.

            The other one of interest is the Lucinda horse Castle Flames, I have an old tracker note on that one from about 3 years ago, they really liked it then but said it had “glass legs” (thats what I put in my tracker so they would have used that phrase) interesting that after a long break they want to persevere with it??.

            ian@sp2a 05/11/17 1:12 PM Reply


            • (correction) it is CELTIC Flames (transposed first bit with Castletown – the Robson horse).

              ian@sp2a 05/11/17 1:16 PM Reply


    • Ian

      not sure of the Good Ground wish for Carlisle….I live on the other side of the river and my garden is still so “squelchy” wet that the grass has not been cut for nearly 2 months

      Anyone with Gardening tips for trying to dry the lawns out, please….most welcome

      Norm 05/11/17 12:10 PM Reply


      • Norman meant to type “soft” instead of good ground spotted on re-read. Horse ran as expected to come 7th ran on OK up the hill. Made a few uncharachteristic jumping errors though so not dis-pleased.

        Less said about the 2.30 the better as clearly “dead ground” and pace played in to hands of dour experienced stayers.

        Re Laws..aeration is the key, I have a lawn aerator basically a bar type device with 5 hollow tines for decent sized plugs to be taken out – fill with lawn sand in Autumn. I also have some rather natty some would say geeky lawn aerator shoes, basically a flat sole with about 25 long nails on each foot, strap to shoes and walk around (straps are crap so I superglued to some very old trainers) – great in the back garden but you don’t hgalf get some funny looks on front lawn LOL!

        ian@sp2a 05/11/17 2:46 PM Reply


  • A quick question Josh,does the FOB/Brennan handicap hurdle strategy have a class criteria that ruled out Diamond Fort yesterday.

    gearoid180468 05/11/17 10:13 AM Reply


    • Hi Gerry,… i have no idea why he wasn’t posted.. I am sure he didn’t appear in my qualifiers.. I will wait for the system results to update to check whether I have just failed to type him up – as the system is simply those two in standard handicap hurdles (not novice handicaps) which yesterday’s was. Odd if he wasn’t found by the system criteria- it can only be that i missed it, but will check.
      Josh

      Josh 05/11/17 10:24 AM Reply


  • I had a nice little touch on Outlander yesterday in Ireland and it’s hard to see past Racing Pulse and A Sizing Network in the big one there today (win and each way); I may have a bit of loose change too on Une Lavandiere at 20’s with Paddy P paying odds to 4th

    GL

    Colin 05/11/17 11:23 AM Reply


  • K Dalgleish NH flat race. 1st run for stable.
    5 from the last 7 have won.
    4:10C Qasr 11/4. It’s not a good price. but a very good stat

    ian straker 05/11/17 11:25 AM Reply


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