Members Daily Post: 04/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newmarket 

1.45 – Shamrokh (3yo+) 22/1 2nd

4.00-  Case Key (3yo+) I3 25/1

 

JUMPS

Wetherby

12.20 – Purcell’s Bridge (all hncps) I3 12/1 S2 UP

3.45 –

Zig Zag (m1+m2) 12/1 S2 UP

Little Bruce (m1,m2) I1 20/1 S2 

 

Ayr

1.00 –

The Orange Rogue (m1) ES+  H1 7/2  S3A UP

Titian Boy (m1) ES+  I3 G3 7/1 S3A  S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

1.35 – Captain Redbeard (all hncps + m1 + m1) 9/1 3rd 14/1

 

Ascot

2.25 –

Marracudja (hncp chase, m2) 14,30  5/1  3rd 

Chris Pea Green (hncp chase) 14/1 S2 UP

Theinval (m2) I1 15/2 UP

3.00 –

Air Horse One (hncp hurdle) 14,30  I3 8/1 UP 

Jenkins (m1) 11/2

Verdana Blue (m1) I1 G3 6/1   UP

3.35 –

Art Mauresque (hncp chase) 14,30  25/1 S2

Braqueur D’Or (hncp chase) H3 8/1

Antony (hncp chase) 10/1 S2

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/121, +135.5)

 

NOTES

3.00 Ascot – Air Horse One – one of the few non strategy picks on the day but I want to have a go at 8/1. He is only 6, handles soft, stays further, has course form, the yard is flying and there could be more to come this season. He has a solid run in the County Hurdle at the Festival and given how competitive those races are that is worth plenty in this line up. He has ran well fresh before and this is only his 6th handicap hurdle run. Hopefully he can settle given this is his first run but if he can get into a rhythm I wouldn’t put a massive run beyond him. At 8s I want to have something on. I think he looked the most interesting to my eyes at the prices.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

none.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From Friday’s post…

David Peat has another of his weekly ‘chase profiles’ updates to get stuck into. So, put a brew on, get the notebook out, and have a flick through HERE>>>

His original free report for you can be found at the link below… (password is case sensitive, a capital P)

YOU CAN READ THIS PDF HERE>>>

(it is password protected…   password…. Profiles17  )

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A ‘Welcome’ re-cap…

If you have yet to check out those two welcome videos I recorded a few weeks back , you can check them out HERE>>>

(the second discusses the advised jumps strategies,inc how to set min odds on Betfair SP, the first video covers various things including winning strike rates>losing runs>betting banks. They are worth a flick through,especially if new)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Bernadelli 1:35 Ayr 25s currently surely worth a small ew punt 🙂
    Nicky Richards yard rocking lately. Risks attached of course. Last 2 outings PU but ability is there if returning to form. No problems with the going.

    Darren 04/11/17 8:02 AM Reply


  • Two at moment both at Ayr as waiting for the ground at Ascot.

    Darren I have to agree with you
    13.35 Ayr BERNADELLI (each way 25/1)
    I could have this totally wrong (not be the first time) but he will love this ground and although better with a recent run at this sort of price he is worth a small each way punt. Ignore last two runs when pulled up as I really don’t think he stays 3m (record at around 3m: 3P2P3P). Yard is in good form as well.
    2m3.5f to 2m5.5f: 1115141 (2m4.5f: 1514)
    Heavy ground: 3 wins from 9 runs
    Craig Nichol: 3 wins from 11 rides

    14.45 Ayr SPECIAL CATCH (win 7/2)
    Not worried about the drop in trip in this ground as I do prefer a horse that stays further.
    In chase runs only
    31 days+: 1121
    All wins Class 3 and below
    Ayr: 113
    Heavy: 22
    B Hughes: 132

    David Peat 04/11/17 8:50 AM Reply


  • Thanks David
    Hopeful of a good run

    Darren 04/11/17 9:45 AM Reply


  • Hi all, I would like your opinion on Basford Ben 12.20 Wetherby, I know he hasn’t won for 18 months but is 8 pounds below his last winning mark, stable form a negative but C/D winner and ground fine 20/1 seems big to me.

    Greg Phillips 04/11/17 10:33 AM Reply


    • Not sure a LH track (1 from 27) suits as much as a RH track (5 from 23) and stable do seem out of sorts at the moment

      David Peat 04/11/17 10:44 AM Reply


    • save your money and go Antony each way , 3.35 Asc. Lady Eli and Lady Aurelia and Bolt D’Ore at the Breeders Cup this evening.

      martin colwell 04/11/17 12:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Greg
    Too many negatives for me but you have to go with your gut sometimes.
    Twickenwolf 20s and Zanstra 12s would be my picks. Just to muddy the waters 🙂

    Darren 04/11/17 10:48 AM Reply


    • Delgany Demon caught my eye as has been running in far better chase races than this – goes well on this ground, all wins 1 to 11 runners, all wins have come in Class 4 and below, 121 days+: 2322, 3m1/2f to 3m4f: 12242. stable is in good form however 3/1 is on the skinny side.

      David Peat 04/11/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • And to add to the mud … im in the Daklondike camp

    Good Luck

    joners 04/11/17 10:51 AM Reply


  • Well I think that makes it a no bet race for me, Nortonthorpelegend had good November Form last year after a run will be a good race to watch, thanks for your help all. good luck with all your bets.

    Greg Phillips 04/11/17 11:00 AM Reply


  • I’m off to Down Royal now and it looks a day for shorties
    The one’s I like for betting are
    1.20 Dis Donc 5/1 ew
    1.55 Art Of Security 9/1 ew
    Both to back up good form runs last time out although AOS is unproven over the hurdles.

    Other races in multiples for interest
    Espoir Dallen
    Our Duke
    Poormans Hill
    First Approach
    Trebles and an acca

    Disko will be played in running if he sets off to make the running.

    Chris McilfatriDiskock 04/11/17 11:10 AM Reply


    • see what happens when your trying to write up in the car lol
      Chris McilfatriDiskock!!!!!!

      Chris Mcilfatrick 04/11/17 11:14 AM Reply


  • Looking at the twitter feed the rain has cleared and there is not much change to the going

    14.25 Ascot QUITE BY CHANCE (each way 15/2)
    The horse prefers a RH track (0 from 17 on a LH track) and likes a strong pace (which he had last year as well). This year he has 4 front runners in opposition so likely to get required strong pace.
    RH tracks, Slightly undulating, good through to soft ground, 11 runners or less, chase races: 21111312.

    14.25 Ascot MAX WARD (each way 15/2)
    Ran well in a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree last run of the season and that was on a LH track that does not suit as much as a RH track (3 wins from 8 runs). When racing at 2m1f to 2m3.5f: 121. All wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners and does like good ground although has run with credit on GTS and soft ground.

    15.35 Ascot ULTRAGOLD (each way 25/1)
    I have to agree with Josh on this one as he was not stopping at Aintree over 2m5f and his first run back over 2m3.5f when outpaced before running on again after the last showed that this step up in trip may suit.
    Has won on ground ranging from good through to soft(but may prefer good/GTS), when racing 16 to 30 days after last race: 3 wins from 8 starts and is well suited to flat/slightly undulating tracks.

    David Peat 04/11/17 11:20 AM Reply


  • Free post/chase tips in the usual place if you missed it…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/11/03/free-daily-post-041117-upd1/

    Josh 04/11/17 11:49 AM Reply


  • I mentioned briefly a few days ago that FOB might be about to hit a hot streak,anyone taking note would have 2 nice winners today

    gearoid180468 04/11/17 4:16 PM Reply


  • Yep Gearoid I was on Diamond Fort … Thank you

    joners 04/11/17 4:37 PM Reply


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