Members Daily Post: 03/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Newmarket 

1.10 – Celestial Spheres (3yo+, + micro going) 14,30  4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

2.55 – Star Story (all hncps) I3 GEvens UP

 

JUMPS

Wetherby 

2.35 – Guitar Pete (all hncps) 14,30 H1 G3  7/2 WON 7/2>7/4

3.10 –

Cornborough (all hncps + hncp hurdle) H1 I3 G3 4/1 S4  2nd 

Aniknam (m1) 10/1 S2 PU

 

Uttoxeter

2.10 –

Bit of A Quirk (all hncps + hncp h) ES H3 G1 7/1 S3  S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP 6/1 

Maid Of Tuscany (hncp hurdle) H3 I3 7/1  UP 

3.20 – Dartford Warbler (m2) H3 I3 G1 10/1  S1, S2, S4  2nd  (painful!) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (25/119, +132.5)

NOTES

Celestial SpheresWON 4/1 sound the klaxon, i’m putting up one under 6/1… it will go one of two ways. He will win like a 6/4 shot or probably tail in. Early market support is a good sign and it seems a mediocre end of season handicap. Clearly the form of his maiden win two starts ago hasn’t gone unnoticed, given the horse he beat in second at Goodwood is now rated OR106. He comes here off 85, as some sort of measure. In any case he is lightly raced (only his 7th career run) this being his second handicap and he drops in class from when last seen. Appleby seems to have been ‘in form’ all year and his continue to go well enough. Fitness won’t be a problem, if he wants him fit. He is 3/11,5p all handicappers that have returned to either Newmarket track between 121-300 days off. He is 4/13,7p, all those returning 60+ days over 10f, in handicaps, on home turf. Clearly he’s had problems but you suspect they will turn up with him spot on here. He races prominently and has a top jockey on. There is a chance they make all, or track Medalla De Oro who likes to get on with it. He does hit that ‘magic formula’ , it was then just a question of price. I have judged 4s is just on my limit and ok.. in part because I do think he could blow this lot away. And hence that would look big. ‘Could’. I’ll roll the dice. We have enough ‘notes’ points to play with 🙂

 

Bit Of  A Quirk.. UP – no excuse there, perfectly positioned… running as if a) his mark is too high in this sphere or b) he doesn’t stay – they may need to try and make all/dictate- he did jump and travel well enough,to think a weak 16f hncp hurdle in him somewhere. he has what will become the ‘magic jumps’ formula – well, nearly.. this one was a tad exposed on the flat, but unexposed in this sphere… he makes his handicap hurdle debut here- Walford is 3/16,4p with those. He is also 3/14,5p with 4 year olds in handicap hurdles. He is 3/15,9p with all handicap hurdlers here in the last 5 years, 2/4,3p over 16f. This one was unfancied on his maiden hurdle runs and ran as such – being held up and seemingly improving for each run. He can be a keen sort, hence why you may wish to teach him how to settle over his longer trip. It could be that on handicap debut he may now have learnt how to settle, he races more prominently, and hacks up! He books Coleman here which caught the eye, 0/2,2p in recent years- his last ride was at this track last October. The horse does move down in class from that last run. Unlike a few with this profile that we will back in the months ahead, he doesn’t move up in trip- which I like to see. But he is flat bred and this is probably as far as he wants. He looks like he needs decent ground also so you would like to think they will try and win a race with him before everywhere is soft enough. It could be he is just moderate and too high in the handicap, but this is a shocker of a race. And given that profile, and his 7/1+ odds, I’ll have a dart. His GG speed figure is much the best in this also.

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That’s the lot for section 2. As always, me not mentioning a horse from section 1 is NOT a negative as to their chances. This is just my own subjective view on what looked most interesting- and in general, my eyes are always drawn to the more lightly raced ones/younger legs.

 

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re-cap – Ah, Thursday was frustrating but that’s racing… Boric bumped into another one…and with a longer run in I suspect he would have won that. When they run like that you can only think ‘what if’ – what if he was next to the winner the whole way round/slightly further forward…but the winner had a bit in hand/well handicapped (another one moved from Rebecca Curtis! Sadly it looks like anything that has left hers could be well handicapped – take the Romford Pele at Aintree also)… one of those. He has bumped into one twice now. He travelled and jumped very well here and must have a regional national in him somewhere, esp if no pace in the race and he can make all – that race at Catterick would suit him, but he needs decent enough ground I think (need to check) Beau Du Brizais… he ran a cracker also and was arguably unlucky… he had to avoid a faller/was nearly brought down, and that shuffled him back just as he was wanting to creep forward. Were it for that he may have been upsides the winner at the last and then who knows, he looked to be staying on better to my eye there. But, nice to see him get round and Hobbs will win races with him- a chase at Taunton maybe, where he has won before. A game of fine margins, but at least most of them at a price ran with credit.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

T Lacey (any odds)

2.45 Uttox – Kimberlite Candy

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

David Peat has another of his weekly ‘chase profiles’ updates to get stuck into. So, put a brew on, get the notebook out, and have a flick through HERE>>>

His original free report for you can be found at the link below… (password is case sensitive, a capital P)

YOU CAN READ THIS PDF HERE>>>

(it is password protected…   password…. Profiles17  )

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A ‘Welcome’ re-cap…

If you have yet to check out those two welcome videos I recorded a few weeks back , you can check them out HERE>>>

(the second discusses the advised jumps strategies,inc how to set min odds on Betfair SP, the first video covers various things including winning strike rates>losing runs>betting banks. They are worth a flick through,especially if new)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • Im with the Dartford Warbler so obviously pleased to see it listed above Josh , the horse has had a decent comeback at Carlisle and now steps up in trip whilst a 3 time course winner and a claimer taking his mark down to 96 and the stable runners appearing to improve on a 1st run , the 16/1 opening in a dead 8 race looks an each way not to be sniffed at .

    joners 02/11/17 5:29 PM Reply


    • yep he is very well handicapped – hopefully adjusts back from chasing, and not getting any younger. Not 100% he sees out a well run 3m, but has run well over CD in class above and off a 16lb higher mark, and may not want a trip. We shall see! Looks like a S1,2,4

      Josh 02/11/17 5:43 PM Reply


    • Outjocked

      alpha2 03/11/17 3:30 PM Reply


      • Yep, he out-jocks most in fairness, take 3lb into consideration also – younger legs have just prevailed- I don’t think old Dartford has a turn of gear these days so can see why went after him early, to stoke up and hope that he gallops him into ground- but swap jocks and result switches, but that’s how it goes.

        Josh 03/11/17 3:32 PM Reply


  • i would be lying if i said i wasn’t disappointed with tomorrows card at Wetherby so i’ll be keeping most of my money in the wallet for saturday , might have a small ew on Skipthescales in the 1st, only 3 runners in the 1.25 might stick a fiver on Work Du Breteau if i can get 3’s,
    2-00 haven’t a scooby don’t think i’ll bother.
    2-35. probably a toss up between Zamdy Man and Guitar Pete
    3-10. aaaaaarrrrrgggg got a headache just looking at it, ultra consistent Cornborough could be the one but 10-3 is very short for a horse that hasn’t won a hurdle race for 14 months
    3-45.Wemyss Point or Randy Pike might be worth a small punt ew if price is big enough.
    or as Thats Life used to say – unless you know better 🙂

    martin whittle 02/11/17 10:05 PM Reply


    • The Wetherby card is not great but they will have food and drink and so not all is lost. Hopefully it does not rain. In the 3.45 Carlos De Fruitier should improve and be OK on the ground. Not much of a price though. There is always tomorrow.

      martin colwell 03/11/17 8:52 AM Reply


      • i think the bar might be the best place to be today and as i’m staying overnight i can at least have a few, coming straight home after racing tomorrow so no alcohol.
        if anyone else is going this is what i look like if you want to say hi : https://www.hairybikersdietclub.com/success-stories/martins-weight-loss-means-he-no-longer-needed-surgery/ my claim to fame being a hairy bikers success story

        martin whittle 03/11/17 9:10 AM Reply


        • Very well done Martin, looking very trim and fit

          Chris Mcilfatrick 03/11/17 10:18 AM Reply


        • Great effort Martin. Losing weight works on so many positive levels…and as you’ve noted it’s an upward spiral, the more you lose the more motivated you get to drop a few more. Keep it up!

          Steve C 03/11/17 12:06 PM Reply


        • Great job! I am struggling myself to loose weight. Not easy!

          Marcel 03/11/17 12:12 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin
          A very big well done on your weight loss very impressive no doubt you feel a lot better and more active,
          cheers
          Colin

          colin leafe 03/11/17 12:28 PM Reply


        • Very inspirational martin.I even look like you used to.I am 116kg on cpap machine, i have to do this, as bringing up kids on your own is hard enough.I was told to cut out most carbs, but i just love bread and potatoes.Is there much flab left over after losing all that weight?

          mozzer 03/11/17 4:23 PM Reply


  • David Peat’s work is a wonderful addition the the site, Ben.

    NICK BRYANT 02/11/17 10:53 PM Reply


  • Royal Vacation 2.35 Wetherby was on an upward trajectory prior to Cheltenham pu and again at Sandown.There was obviously something amiss and if resolved could continue to improve.Usually you only find out these things when the horse bolts up nto.It’s funny when you read the pundits comments about his fluke win when Might Bite fell at Kempton,if he had come 2nd would probably read 2nd to useful Might Bite who went on to win RSA.Unfortunately the 6/1 is too short for a play

    gearoid180468 03/11/17 12:47 AM Reply


  • Listening to ATR on Wednesday they were talking about the Neil Mulholland stable finally finding some form and it would seem the problem was a a bad batch of haylage. This seems to have been sorted and his horses have been in better form of late. INDIAN STREAM was very poor at Chepstow but not the first time he has ran badly there (he did so last year before winning this race also that 3m trip does seem to stretch his stamina). The ground is a concern as has shown best form on faster ground (never raced on anything slower than GTS over fences).
    Apart from the ground he does have a lot in his favour 1 to 11 runners: 131111, Flat/Slightly undulating track: 131211, 2m3.5f to 2m6.5f: 111, 16 to 30 days: 1121.

    David Peat 03/11/17 6:03 AM Reply


  • 3.55 Uttoxeter Tara Mist.
    I used to think Richard Johnson riding handicap chasers for Henry Daly was a profitable pursuit but don’t have any figures to back it up. Josh, is it something you could look at ?

    geoffwylde 03/11/17 9:19 AM Reply


    • Hi Geoff…

      Last 5 years…

      Hncp chases… (all,will inc novice hncps) – 4/45,16p, -28 SP
      But… 3/5,5p over 21-23f (3 diff horses also)
      4/23,9p, C4

      compared to handicap hurdles… 12/62,28p, +15

      Josh

      Josh 03/11/17 9:24 AM Reply


      • Profitable today !

        geoffwylde 03/11/17 4:09 PM Reply


        • Now 4/6,6p over t his distance range! Hope you had a nibble. Distance/class stats solid enough, and shows why yo have to dig below any top level horrors.

          Josh 03/11/17 4:16 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh

    geoffwylde 03/11/17 12:50 PM Reply


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