Members Daily Post: 02/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Sedge

1.00 – Robbing The Prey  (nov HcCh) I3 5/1  2nd 15/2 

2.35 –

Askamore Darsi  (m1,m2)   ES 5/1  S3 UP

Bourne  (m1,m2)   ES 9/1 S3 UP

3.10 – Boric  (all Hc’s) H3 14/1  S2 2nd 16/1 

3.40 – Mo Chailin  (m1,m1,m2,m2)   ES 16/1  S2 S3  

4.10 –

Riverside Bridge  (m1) 20/1  S2 UP

Fit For Fifty  (m1,m1,m2)   G3 ES 14/1  S1, S2, S3  UP 14/1>4/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS 

Stratford 

4.20 –

Beau du Brizais  (all Hc’s) H3  ES  8/1 S3 2nd  10/1

Until Winning  (m2) I3 16/1  S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (25/119, +132.5)

Nothing today.

A decent win from yesterday’s notes selection who fought well to get up on the line. The ‘magic formula’ (section 1 qual/unexposed-lightly raced-more to come one day/are they doing something different) working again on the flat.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Barber + Ralph have a couple of runners today, worth a look maybe as ‘starting points’

J.Barber – 1.40 Strat – King Calvin

A.Ralph – 2.45 Start – Cut The Corner

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Really Super…

A great day out at Fakenham yesterday – I have never been there before but plenty of charm about the place and I couldn’t fault it really.

I need to watch the race back again but she has ran a cracker and with any luck the front two may be worth following. The winner had actually finished just ahead of us on the flat and did plenty wrong pre race and in the race. One of our number spoke to someone in the Neil King yard and it turns out they expected her to win also! A nice long gap back to the rest.

Really Super looked a picture pre race and travelled and jumped very well. Sadly the Moore horse couldn’t take us into it for a bi longer as we hit the front sooner than ideal. It got really exciting but then was caught a bit flat footed as the other started to stay on. The way ours responded was encouraging, staying on all the way up to the line. The way she travels and jumps should see us have plenty of fun with her, and 2m4f shouldn’t be a problem at some point. She is a big horse and I think found the track/trip tight enough and should run better at more galloping track. There is a plan of sorts, which may include running at Aintree in December- what dreams are made of! She came back safe and we have plenty to build on moving forwards. She will win races. As is my want, I’d like us to try and make all with her one day!

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I am jumping back on a train to Liverpool soon and ‘normal service’ will resume from this afternoon, with qualifiers posted late afternoon etc.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • glad you had a nice day yesterday josh at fakenham , sure you will win a race with her .
    my first month on here brought these results …
    26#165-15% s.r-61.76 pts profit …..hoping to keep it going now with average 5 pts a week

    steve 02/11/17 7:49 AM Reply


    • 60+ points in your first month isn’t a bad start Steve! With any luck you are simply playing with bookies money now as that steadily builds. There will be a horror show soon, esp S2,but as yet that hasn’t materialised but plenty there when it does.

      What approach are you taking, Strategies X,just backing once?

      Well done.

      Josh 02/11/17 9:58 AM Reply


      • hi josh , i’m backing all system strategie selections just the once .

        steve 02/11/17 11:38 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    well done yet again josh with another cracking notes winner, pity flat is ending, cant wait for next march ! always thought of you as a national hunt expert, but what incredible results since september

    pendrem 02/11/17 8:53 AM Reply


    • Cheers Malc. Haha…well, it’s been a case of teaching an ‘old’ dog new tricks I suppose… this is the first flat season I have approached in this way and that ‘magic formula’ has only developed in the last couple of months. But without doubt generally focusing on the ‘is there more to come one day’ sorts,rather than the ‘been there and done it’ types has been fruitful. Bar the odd exception of course. Bar that Easterby 50s winner I don’t think I’ve missed any/many non strategy winners 10/1+ which has been positive. Something to work with.
      That formula will apply to the jumps also and once the rust has gone from my ‘jumping eyes’ we should do fine. Time will tell. Always the 3m+ chase tips also to keep us ticking over with any luck.
      Clearly I’m pleased that my ‘subjective’ eyes have been working well of late, comforting when everything else is systematic and that portfolio approach should ensure no horrific losing runs. In theory. Maybe. Onwards. And does hammer home that the content finds plenty of decent priced winners and a fun challenge for those who like being selective with the list/not all systems based.

      Josh 02/11/17 10:03 AM Reply


  • Clonmel today is pretty uninspiring but Down Royal is around the corner!

    One bet at Clonmel–Martello Park 7/2. Whilst she’s shorter than i like my bets to be…i expected her to be outright fav. Osco Mosco wouldn’t exactly win often and i have to say i am shocked to see her fav (watch this go wrong now) On a line through Creation, MP sees her off with ease. It’s also clear that MP is well thought of, she took part in the graded mares bumpres in England. Sandown, MP and Redhotfillypeppers decided to run a 5f sprint instead of a 2mile bumper, but she still finished 4th. Aintree probably more encouraging, and the form is there to see.
    A line through her race with Fintara, gives her plenty of hope as she conceded weight, only beat 3/4L staying on at the finish. It’s possible they now know how to ride her a bit more prominent.
    Another line of encouragement is her pedigree. Martello Tower + other staying chasers. She is likely to improve for a trip i would hope.
    The twoi will be watching in the race for the future are: Shimmer’s Rock (related to The New One and a former pointer so will be better for the trip i’d hope) and Dawn Shadow (didn’t run badly against the geldings on her start over hurdles. Possible she will win a small race at Downpatrick or Down Royal knowing the trainer.)

    Other than that i will be following Josh at Sedgy!

    Jack Houston 02/11/17 9:08 AM Reply


    • GL Jack,you deserve some return just for the analysis!

      Josh 02/11/17 10:11 AM Reply


    • Very informative Jack…..Thanks for the info. Will watch. The radar switches on when i see a horse MT at a short price which is about half -way down my ratings…
      I have Osco Mosco top followed by…Rolanna and Fintara….Robbies only tide today for Jesse.
      I think a few winners will come out of this race whatever the result.

      BOL Jack. Cheers.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 02/11/17 11:19 AM Reply


      • Tony Osco would be consistent but a line of near wins puts me off her…and her standard wouldnt be all that high so far…interesting a 50/1 high up in your ratings? Money for Martello Park seems about right if shes fit….

        think i’ve asked you before Tony how do you come about with your ratings again?

        I see plenty of money about for one of yours Josh, Fit for Fifty, was about to back it, but leaving it at 4s and 5s.

        Jack Houston 02/11/17 12:39 PM Reply


      • What about the Coddmaster, only one ride, 4.05 CL. Battling Spirit?

        martin colwell 02/11/17 12:40 PM Reply


        • Martin i will be brutally honest, i dont know much about it…interesting booking indeed!

          Would be a good training performance!

          Jack Houston 02/11/17 1:02 PM Reply


  • 14.45 Stratford GERMANY CALLING
    Has his ideal conditions today – Class 3 and 4, GTS or good ground when racing 26 to 180 days after last race: 111111 (+17.28 points).
    This race is named after his trainer and I sure he will have the horse primed for a decent run
    I do have a nagging doubt that Starchitect could be a useful horse having raced in some very good races last season.

    David Peat 02/11/17 9:45 AM Reply


    • David
      I put your list in a tracker and Cut the Corner being one is running today.
      He is ok with Going, Prize Money and Field size but is 7 days outside his preferred rest period also not convinced about the suitability of the track, can you comment on this please.

      mickeydee 02/11/17 10:09 AM Reply


      • MickeyDee – I had concerns about the track as 1 from 14 on flat tracks also 0 from4 when racing off a mark of 131+ And for me he is better horse when racing 1 to 15 days after last race.

        David Peat 02/11/17 10:36 AM Reply


        • Cheers David, I’m on Germany Calling.

          Mike

          mickeydee 02/11/17 10:51 AM Reply


    • Very poor run from Germany Calling today disappointing especially under ideal conditions. Good comback run from Strachitect

      David Peat 02/11/17 2:53 PM Reply


  • CUT THE CORNER 2:45 Stratford was in my tracker with notes written “Josh – one to watch”
    Now I’ve had a quick look at the race and I’m really a novice and no form expert but from what I could see nothing really stood out except if I read it correctly GERMANY CALLING looks like it’s had quite a big class drop. Might be worth a closer look. As I say I’m a novice to this from stuff and there are better on here at reading form. Our mentor for one. ☺

    Warren bottomley 02/11/17 9:55 AM Reply


  • BOOKMAKERS!!!!!! make you laugh! just tried to put 20p on BET365, on VROOM after SKYBET would only accept 30p at 66 to 1, BET365 would only accept 15p, 20p too much for them !!! RIDICULOUS!! its not right, need to be like a lot of states in australia, where bookmakers have to accept £25 on anything at any odds

    pendrem 02/11/17 9:57 AM Reply


    • Yeah it does make it a pain in the backside having to continuously find new accounts. I would be happy with something like max liability of £400-500. If they all did it you can just spread the bets out.

      Nick Mazur 02/11/17 10:17 AM Reply


    • Betfred have a 4p max for me. Anyone beat that? My understanding from having spoken to people in the industry is that the Bookmakers are now not closing accounts due to adverse publicity and so are ‘Restricting’ them to a very low level.

      martin colwell 02/11/17 12:46 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Keep dreaming and hope that the dream lasts,had a share in a horse trained by Tony Carroll called Monkhair which won three races out of five including one at Cheltenham not the festival,after that win the talk was next years festival but sadly she did not train on the next season and was sold,there ended my dream.

    colin leafe 02/11/17 10:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,
      Yep the dream is alive. I’m confident she will win races,how good those races/at what level,we shall see. The good thing with fillies/mares is that if well bred there is always some residual re sale value as a brood mare. Which helps in sense you can just enjoy the ride. Clearly you never expect a return on your money of course,anything back is a bonus. It’s all about the hope! Aintree should suit her perfectly. Of course there will be plenty of nice types from bigger yards and she may not be good enough. Only one way to find out!

      Josh 02/11/17 10:24 AM Reply


      • Absolutely Josh, think fillies/mares the route to go down nowadays…plenty of room for them to pick up black type as the race fixtures are there now…

        Hopefully your girl will prove capable of getting it, she looks it. Geldings are more for the fun, but they provide zero return after racing…

        I am in Listen Dear with Willie Mullins…shes by Robin des Champs, and is a graded hurdle and chaser…so hopefully make a penny or two from her going forward…only slight drawback is shes a slight mare. Mind when she goes off in front not many catch her!

        Jack Houston 02/11/17 12:29 PM Reply


  • I like Buachaill Alan to win the race he won in 2016, 3.10 Sed. He is only 2lb higher and will like the ground. He must stay as he won this last year on similar ground. I like Anfass, 8.30 CH, 16/1, he is dropping in the weights and should like the surface. An outsider at Lingfield, Skidby Mill at 66/1 in the 4.30. Again it looks to me as if he will go well on the surface and can get involved.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 02/11/17 10:28 AM Reply


  • hi josh,i am going to the jumps at musselburgh on the 8th nov.Is there any chance you could mark my card?cheers

    william 02/11/17 11:41 AM Reply


    • Hi William, I’m sure I can give that ago. No doubt others may have some thoughts also- we can plug our collective power into that card! I don’t do too badly there from memory ,maybe as the place really does favour front runners/those who can travel. Very hard to come from behind there unless a pace collapse . We shall see if anything jumps out nearer the time. No doubt may be a few stats picks also.
      Remind me on the morning of the 7th if I dont reference it in that days post. Josh

      Josh 02/11/17 12:27 PM Reply


  • My Lingfield thoughts for what they’re worth.
    I fancy most of the favs which usually ends up in a nightmare but so be it

    12.10 Scandaleuse to lead all the way , it has drifted a bit though, Bubble and Squeak ran well last time after being bumped of the stalls
    12.45 Il Primo all the way(odds on)
    120 Muffria has the class but drawn in the car park so short enough
    150 Mr Bossy Boots runs well here but I like Charles Molson at the prices, probably drawn too wide but done it ew
    225 Melodic Motion, don’t know what the French horse will do
    255 I like Miss Blondell, first run back after lay off last time, given a fairly easy time, Miss Pacific got a dream run up the inside whereas Blondell had to go wide but finished well being tenderly ridden. Think the step up in trip may suit too.
    330 Choral Clan is consistent
    400 Exit Europe ran well in its comeback run, La Isla Bonita being running well and would be my pick
    I wonder if they are going for a touch on Secret Missile today, better drawn and was rated much higher than this

    In summary my best bets would be Miss Blondell followed by Charles Molson

    Good Luck

    Steve Davies 02/11/17 12:06 PM Reply


    • I’ve backed Secret Missile as it’s latest run was much better, beaten less than 5 lengths.
      Well drawn on a course where he’s won and out again quickly.

      chrisrees 02/11/17 1:13 PM Reply


      • Hope you’re right Chris, like to see it lead, has been running ok I think but held up. We’ll see soon

        Steve 02/11/17 3:11 PM Reply


  • Typical, one of the ones for the future wins today punted from 14s to 6s in places….that’s annoying!

    Re Martello Tower, she wasn’t fantastic in her jumping, but she travelled really well rounding the bend before flattening out…hopefully she just needed the run.

    Shimmers rock also ran a nice race…

    Jack Houston 02/11/17 1:05 PM Reply


  • Hmm our luck is starting to change given Robbing the Prey just drifted enough to get to 11BSP and than just got beat.

    Nick Mazur 02/11/17 1:59 PM Reply


    • The day of the placed horse at a nice price, having looked like they may win (at one stage or another!) One of those it seems.

      Josh 02/11/17 3:51 PM Reply


      • At least they’ve gone close. One due to go in soon.

        Its been a shit week of racing in fairness. I’ve tipped up one horse in 4 days and today I didn’t even fancy anything enough today to throw a fiver ew at it. Hopefully tomorrow looks better (although off to Emirates tonight so won’t have much time to look at it)

        Nick Mazur 02/11/17 3:59 PM Reply


  • The 3.10 & Delusionofgrandeur was my choice ..@ 13/2 b365 last night , thought the trip would be fine , travelled really well over a marathon trip on good ground before .Clearly had a pipe opener last time out over a trip way too short , that should have set it up nicely for today … probably softer going would have been ideal but in a tough race , you just have to make a call .

    joners 02/11/17 2:41 PM Reply


    • Gl Joners.. I have managed to have a quick flick through it now and did think Mister Don and Boric looked a bit over-priced, can see why you like the Smith horse, should get a decent run for your money for a long way. Looks a tough one but yep you have to make a call in those! Quite happy taking the fav on, can live with him beating me. Hopefully Boric may win for the stats above, provided he can build on that last run/hasn’t taken too much out of him (chance it may have)/he doesn’t take too many fences home with him! Mister Don has always looked like a good ground one pace plodder, so no excuse if good enough. Dangers everywhere.

      Josh 02/11/17 2:57 PM Reply


  • I also have small share in listen dear with Willie Mullins dream come true for me but as I said only small share

    stephen 02/11/17 3:58 PM Reply


  • Tonights fare at Chelmers

    525 I like Rastacap from the front and Baileys Excel at a big price
    555 Really open race, I picked out 4 but will go with Rustang again who was backed last time and won well in a grade 6 race, Deadly Reel for a big priced one
    625 Even more open than the last race, at a big price I’m having a go with Breaking Free, been running ok, first time pieces on. The fav usually leads and gets collared also a bad draw, Miss Mirabeau is a monkey, ran well last time though, don’t mind Wootyhoot or even Never Folding, but Breaking Free at the price
    655 Really no idea Watersmeet can be good , Battersea I think is a bit of a monkey, the others out of form, so sit this one out
    725 Gorgeous Nora to win this one, has to beat Aleef to the corner I think, Aleef got in an early pace battle last time . I hope Gorgeous, Aleef and You’re Cool don’t spoil eachothers chances by going too fast early doors
    755 Diagnostic (odds on), thought Madame Bounty ran well last time at Newmarket so maybe in the ‘without’ market
    830 I’ve got 5 out of the 8 so another open one, I’ll take Bahamian Heights(ew) at a big price, ran well against Born to Finish last time and is 4 times the price
    900 Time for bed said zebedee, but if you must Touch the Clouds or All or Nothin

    Suppose the best bets would be ew speculations on Bahamian Heights and Breaking Free, both around 20/1. Shorter one would be Rastacap

    Good Luck

    Steve Davies 02/11/17 4:40 PM Reply


  • Everything comes to he who waits
    Bahamian Heights 25/2 winner

    Steve Davies 02/11/17 8:46 PM Reply


    • Left the stalls sideways. If it had been in the old days it would have been slip thrown on floor 2 seconds after the start! But didn’t see it trade any higher than around 70. Winners are nice but even nicer when you think it’s done after 20 yards and somehow gets up to win!

      Steve C 02/11/17 9:54 PM Reply


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