Free Daily Post: 03/11/17 (complete)

TIPS

None. Likely a busy Saturday in store…well, there is the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase from Ascot which I won’t be able to resist playing in. Of course there is the Charlie Hall also and I will see if there is a bet to be had in that. There is a C4 3m handicap chase on that card also that I will flick through also, time allowing.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1 or shorter SP)

2.35 Weth – Zamdy Man

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Horse of interest…

12.50 Weth – Strong Resemblance – could be a case of name your price… the PACE interested me..well he made all for a long way the last day, and usually races prominently. Or has done. These connections made all with a 33/1 poke at Aintree last weekend and I wonder if they will try it again. This one is unexposed and makes handicap hurdle debut. I don’t think the trainer has had a handicap debutant in the last 5 years so no idea how he will go really. But, hopefully, they try and make all. It could be he just isn’t good enough/he is a longer term project, but just on the ‘potential’ pace, his profile, and what trainer/jock did at Aintree, he is worth some change to find out. If they hold him up then we know today may not be the day, but the market doesn’t exactly guide with this yard and we could have some fun…at least until 3 out.

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That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets

Josh

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16 Comments

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  • Breeders Cup Friday – The racing is not great today and so I am focusing on the Breeders Cup at Del Mar. The course was relaid this summer and so the going should be deep (holding). There is a very short run in of 1.25 furlongs and the course is approx a mile round. There are four races today starting at 9.25, with the Juvenile Fillies Turf Mile. US horses usually go well in this race. Happily may get boxed in and AOB has a record of 0/9 in this race. He also has September in the race, who may not just be good enough? All AOB horses at the meeting are running on Lasix. Rushing Fall from the Chad Brown stable is well fancied but has a poor draw and is a finisher and so may struggle with the short straight. One horse available at 10/1 is Significant Form (who Matt B from geegeez who is out there has put up). He has good relevant form and looks the value play.
    The 10.05 is the Dirt Mile is usually a race for 3 or 4 year olds. Mor Spirit is the favourite. He has not run since June bit Bob Baffert is the king of the lay off horse. Practical Joke is undefeated and has not run since August, is a finisher and is not favoured by bends, which he will encounter here almost continuously. Sharp Azteca has been beaten by Mor Spirit but has a good trends profile for this race. Accelerate has beaten Arrogate and is a course specialist, although the trainer has a poor record at the Breeders Cup. Cupid has track form and is the Baffert second string. If you dont like the favourite go Sharp Axteca and Cupid each way.
    The 10.50 is the Juvenile Turf over one mile. Front runners have a poor record in this race but may stay on for a place up the short straight? James Garfield has Frankie as his jockey who has been at the course riding in non Breeders Cup races in the build up. He is going up in trip and you have to think will that suit him? Mendelsson for AOB has a poor draw in one and will have to cope with the turning track, Masar may be found to be one paced on such a nippy track? However he has a good draw and fits the trends for the race. Sands of Mali may lead for Richard Fahey? Untamed Domain has Jose Ortiz on board and is 2/4 and may be the value? Encumbered is drawn 9 but is a course and distance winner and may be value? So in a race not to get too involved in Untamed Domain and Encumbered at a price.
    Finally the 11.35 the Distaff on dirt for fillies over 1M 1F. Another race for 3 and 4 year olds. Stellar Wind is the favourite but this is his third attempt at winning this races. He is 3/3 at Del Mar but we can oppose him at the price. Paradise Woods will try to make all, is a 3 year old, the trainer has a goof Breeders Cup record and has a good trends profile. Elate is a dual grade one winner, is progressive and runs at a stalker. Abel Tasman comes with a late run but needs to improve. In its favour is that it comes from the Baffert stable. Champagne Room won last years Juvenile fillies but needs to improve again to take this. Forever Unbridled did beat Songbird but is likely not good enough for this. So we will go with Paradise Woods and Elate and lay Stellar Wind.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 03/11/17 9:35 AM Reply


    • good analysis Martin.
      Do you think British and Irish horses go off shorter than they should with
      British bookmakers because the majority don’t know the North American form.

      there Seems a dirt/grass split with the Europeans favourite for most of the grass races
      and the Americans looking to win almost all the dirt races

      The European grass horses look under priced with our bookies
      so there could be value with the USA grass horses who have good form

      Peter 03/11/17 10:14 AM Reply


      • I think that the bookies play it safe/try to take advantage of punters only knowing UK and Irish horses but at the same time squeezing up US horses. The US tote is probably the best value for non US horses. The exchanges may be better value than the bookies?. I do struggle to see us Euros coping with this course, which has a run in on 919 feet on Dirt and 819 on the Turf unless they can run the bends and be up there. Even on our all weather they do not do that. The American horses and jockeys must have an advantage there. The only UK jockey with relevant real experience is Frankie. A bet may be number of UK/Irish runners at the meeting? Say 1 at 20/1 or 2 at 12/1 ish?

        martin colwell 03/11/17 10:27 AM Reply


        • And you need to know the clean and the ‘treated’ runners:-
          https://sidgustafson.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/how-to-play-breeders-cup-lasix.html?m=1

          All AOB’s runners are on Lasix – how much? We don’t know.

          chrisrees 03/11/17 12:23 PM Reply


          • My understanding of Lasix is that it stops “bleeds” and acts as a mild pain inhibitor.

            The US Racing system is completely different to UK in that most tracks have huge barns and horses “move in” for a season or part of a season and train and run on the Course; before may be moving to another Track or part of the Country as climate changes.

            The bottom line is Lasix is banned in the UK as I understand yet bizarrely we allow Trainers to run horses here from the US who have used Lasix (and Australia) and even more bizarrely allow UK and Irish Trainers to use Lasix in the US and then bring those horses back here?

            US Anti Doping in any Sport is a joke and personally I think corrupt. The bottom line is they can’t accept losing, will use any method to win and then cast (mostly unfair aspersions) on those that beat them fair and square.

            Just look at Athletics where Carl Lewis and Florence Griffith Joiner regularly failed drug tests and were covered up and as for Justin Gatlin……please don’t start me on that one!

            Bigger example is tennis, Maria Sharapova takes an over the counter prescription medicine for 12 years and gets tested 000’s times and is clean, they then add the drug to the banned list on 1 January; test her on 5th January, accept the trace of the drug in her system was taken before 1 January but ban her for 18 months.

            Compare with Williams sisters, barely play on tour, have more medications approved on exemption that are ON banned list (according to WikiLeaks) and by “vanishing off the tour” avoid regular tests outside of the US, so only American tests occur, then turn up at the majors pumped up on a cocktail of exempt drugs that they have exemption to use! I doubt they need floodlights when they play; they must glow in the dark!

            Bottom line is, all sport has to be on a level playing field, common denominator should be NO drugs and therefore in Breeders Cup we have an unfair playing field that demeans and debases the product!

            ian@sp2a 03/11/17 1:05 PM Reply


            • Excellent piece Ian. Well said

              Allan 03/11/17 2:22 PM Reply


    • Would anyone suggest a bet on Mendolsson lightly raced but I think Wayne lordan rode lto and threw everything at him in very testing ground may have allways going to be a backend project with this meet in mind

      Aaron Lumsden 03/11/17 2:43 PM Reply


  • Down Royal is an interesting course as it has the highest percentage of steeplechase
    fallers in the whole of the british isle.(16%).

    so jumping is a must at this track.
    Tombstone in very short and there could be plenty of horses that hit the deck
    in his beginners chase

    peter 03/11/17 10:25 AM Reply


    • I did like Gilt Shadow, 3.00 DR, at 7/1 but it did previously fall when clear.

      martin colwell 03/11/17 10:29 AM Reply


      • The worst fence for a horse to jump is a downhill
        fence when the previous fence is not to close
        and they build up a head of steam

        Cheltenham had a problem at the 2nd last when
        horses were really motoring down the hill and jumped
        the fence at speed sometimes only a touch of the fence could see the horse pitching forward
        and falling.(that why beaches brook had so many fallers)
        easy looking fence from the take off side but big drop
        lead to a lot of horse falling)
        since they made the drop on the landing side smaller less fallers

        They moved the fence at Cheltenham into the straight and now have a lot less fallers at the 2nd last.
        Down Royal is a big galloping track with several down hill fences
        so they can be really travelling a even a small mistake can see them on the deck
        on the positive side horse who can jump well round here
        can be worth following in novice chases.

        Listowel Thurles Clonmel Downpatrick and Cork also have a high percentage of fallers(12%+)
        so the novice form is worth noting at these courses.
        Sligo 6% Naas6.5% and Roscommon6.6% have the least fallers so horses who have fallen or
        have made mistakes there are dodgy when going to the bigger tracks

        peter 03/11/17 11:47 AM Reply


        • On the back of the previous post Bilko looks an interesting runner.

          Obviously a decent horse but his jumping is iffy.
          His last three races have been at Listowel Sligo and Cork.

          On the two tough jumping Tracks Listowel and Cork
          he trailed in 8th and fell but was 2nd at Sligo
          which is the easiest jumping track in Ireland
          but even there he made a couple of mistakes.
          He has run in 7 chases so it isn’t down to inexperience

          I just think he is an iffy jumper
          so coming to the hardest jumping track in Ireland doesn’t
          bode well.
          I would be surprised if he won today and he could well hit the deck
          but he has the ability to win when facing the Sligo fences

          peter 03/11/17 12:04 PM Reply


      • laid Bilko big time win and place gutted if he wins

        peter 03/11/17 3:35 PM Reply


        • Gilt Shadow will win on an easier jumping course
          as may Bilko

          Bilko can’t jump these difficult Irish courses
          his form looks terrible but have more of a chance
          when he goes to Sligo or Downpatrick so could bounce back.
          if he was mine would go to Downpatrick

          peter 03/11/17 3:49 PM Reply


  • Dettori has predicted that runners drawn higher than stall seven at the compact Del Mar circuit will find it tough to win!!! according to a report in the Daily Mail.
    O’Brien/Moore combo
    9.25 Happily drawn 2
    10.50 Mendelssohn drawn 1
    W. Buick
    10.50 Masar drawn 6
    I do not bet across the pond so make of this what you want.

    colin leafe 03/11/17 12:18 PM Reply


    • I would say 1 or 2 may be tricky as if you dont get out at Del Mar you have to tuck in and may get trapped. I like stalls 3 to 6 best.

      martin colwell 03/11/17 1:12 PM Reply


  • Sometimes you see an inexplicably poor run and certainly one there from Maid Of Tuscany. Can only imagine it may be swallowed some mud or “gurgled” as never going and on form had an excellent chance. It can be softer than you think there though!

    I can’t blame the jock, rarely if ever do, if i tip a loser, blame the tipster; has always been my mantra, but top riders like Geraghty more used to riding premier horses can I think sometimes give a poor horse “a bad feel” if getting at it too early, may just be a bad day at work for the horse, inexplicable, but that’s racing.

    ian@sp2a 03/11/17 2:45 PM Reply


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