Members Daily Post: 01/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Nottingham

2.00 –

Master Archer (all hncps) H3 G1  10/3  S2  2nd 

Bertie Moon (micro class) ES 11/2  S3 UP

2.30 –

Angle Palanos (all hncps) G3 25/1  UP

Lydiate Lady (3yo+, + micro TJC) H1 G1 4/1  S1  2nd 

Fantasy Keeyper (micro TJC) H1 I1 6/1  S1

3.30 – Teomaria (all hncps) G3 12/1  WON 12/1 

4.00 – England Expects (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 13/2  S4 S5 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Fakenham

3.10 – The Way You Dance (all hncps + m1, m2) ES+  G3 11/2. S3A   WON 7/1 

3.40 – Pretty Little Thing (all hncps + m1) ES+ H3 I1 6/1  S3A  UP

 

Taunton

1.20 – Cabernet D’Alene (hncp hurdle) H1 4/1 UP

3.50 – Jump And Jump (m1) 14  16/1 S2 UP

4.20-

Mac Bella (hncp hurdle) ES 9/2 S3 

Starlight Night (m1) I3 G3 14/1 S1 S2 UP

Drive On Locky (m1) 14/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/118, +118.5)

NOTES

Teomaria... I want to have a go on this one as it does hit our ‘magic notes formula’ – mainly unexposed (3rd handicap start) and doing something different – namely drops in class and moves back up in trip. Interesting enough. They may also race prominently enough. Of course she could just be very moderate, that is my suspicion.  She probably is. But this type has won us/me plenty in this section and at 12s/14s, I will take a chance.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Section 1... I have ‘completed’ this part the evening before as I will be off out early Wednesday morning. So, the strategy qualifiers will be based on those now above, inc the generally available prices etc

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Really Super… well the day is nearly here..she is short at 5/2 and I am not the ‘lump on’ sort… albeit I did once have £80 on New Approach to win the Derby at 13/8, in my muggier days. I mean what else do you do with a 13/8 shot but have £80 on!! 🙂 If you want the honest truth I think she will bolt up here. Of course she could clatter through the first and that will be that. She won’t if she jumps them as she now does at home. She is a much bigger and stronger horse than when with her previous yard- amazing what a bit more food can do. I don’t think this mob will live with her- but I like to be bullish. A positive attitude gets you far I find. If I ignored my interest- clearly your head would say 5/2 for a  horse that has never jumped a hurdle in public, or ran in a jumps race, is a bit silly! And I don’t know how good the others could be- albeit if this was a 1m4f flat race she would flatten them now 🙂 No doubt in my mind about that. The most important thing is that she gets

around safely and there is always another time. She should be fit enough but you never know until push comes to shove. How exciting…

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Taunton... Mike asked me to have a look as he is off racing…it is good/firm – gulp, and generally looks mediocre.

Outside of various stats/strategy picks tomorrow…

1.20 – I like Tempuran also…well, ‘like’ may be overly strong but he is trained by one of ‘our’ trainers that I am keeping some sort of eye on..it is his second run for Ralph and he usually races prominently. Could get a decent run for change at 10s. ‘Could’ !

2.50- Copperfacejack... I know he is 9/4, but this is an ‘at the races, I want to back a winner to two’ bet- nothing wrong with that for me. He took an age to get his head in front but having now won he could double up. They will try and be aggressive with him here and make all- I think there is a chance he could. Many in here seem out of form or are very inexperienced chasers. Clearly something may take to it and bolt up, but he will put many of these under pressure. I think

And that’s it really… plenty of Novice/maiden/non handicap races where it will no doubt pay to follow the big yards and the market. I’d spend plenty of time near the bar! 🙂

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That is post complete, unless I have missed anything. Will put the ‘complete’ sign up in the morning at some point, but unless an error somewhere there won’t be anything else from me.

GL with any bets.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Just spent the day in Gordon Elliot’s. He has some ammunition again this year even after the fatalities. Hard to believe he has built it from such humble beginnings.

    He had 4 lots of 40 and then a half lot of 20. That doesn’t include the horses that went away for the day to have serious work before this week’s races. It also doesnt include the horses that have ran over the weekend or early this week. Unreal.

    It is hard to compare it to Mullins yard but it will be a good contest for the Trainers championship again this year! Mullins might well be too strong again, but with the numbers Elliot has, and the young stock, its no certainty!

    Unfortunately i didn’t get many pieces of “info” as his all have very good chances at Down Royal this weekend, which will be echoed in their prices!

    Jack 31/10/17 7:08 PM Reply


  • Lucy Wadham used to be a regular winner at Fakenham, last year was fairly poor,she runs Artifice Sivola 2.40,has been early money 10/1-11/2,also has a bumper runner Echnaton 33/1,she is 3-5 in these type of races,maybe one to watch
    Is Fergal O Brien about to enter a hot streak similar to last year,a winner today and 2-2 yesterday,after a poor start bumpers starting to fire,last 3 won(one disqualified),might be one to keep an eye on going forward,has a sole runner tomorrow,Owen Na View 1.40 Fakenham,can’t see this one winning,but no stars in this race either

    gearoid180468 31/10/17 7:14 PM Reply


  • Evening all, had an ew net tomorrow on Doolin the 15.10 at fakenham. Looks a poor race and horse has shown nothing to note as yet though had ran in two pretty decent novice/maiden events this time last year. Trainer Charlie Mann steps the horse up 4 furlongs tomorrow after a pipe opener three weeks ago over 2m3. Breeding suggests the horse should get the trip out of a 2m6f winning mare and the sire an ex Chester Cup winner.
    Mann has a really good strike rate with 1st time handicap hurdles, since 2012 9/32 showing 42p profit to level stakes, with stable jockey Harry Bannister taking over from Gavin Sheehan.
    Trainer in fairly decent form with 4 winner from 18 runners (6 placed) last 2 weeks. In a poor race with very little winning distance form on show this one may be worth an ew punt in the hope the trip unlocks some improvement.

    leon1986 31/10/17 8:44 PM Reply


  • Ashoka Fakenham Wednesday 14:40 1pt e/w- Ashoka looks a solid bet here at 8s. His 3rd at Fontwell is arguably the best bit of form here with the winner following up NTO off 10lbs higher beating Marracudja who is arguably a class 2 animal and was tasting defeat on seasonal re-appearance for the first time. The 5th also won NTO. The track will suit given he is 131 on undulating or very undulating tracks and prefers it left handed. He actually got dropped 1lb for that and I expect him to go well.

    Nick Mazur 31/10/17 8:47 PM Reply


  • used my £5 free bet on Really Super, hope she bolts up for you Josh have a great day out.

    martin whittle 01/11/17 6:10 AM Reply


  • Many thanks for your thoughts on Taunton today. I take your point about time in the bar! Will be keeping fingers crossed for Really Super.

    Mike Collier 01/11/17 9:25 AM Reply


  • Hi guys,

    I’m away to Down Royal this Saturday so could really do with my card marking
    Stats/Trends/info….

    Thanks in advance

    lightowlers 01/11/17 10:55 AM Reply


    • You there both days or just the Saturday? Great meeting topped off with the Breeders cup at night!

      Jack Houston 01/11/17 10:58 AM Reply


      • Just the Saturday Jack…
        2 young kids & a wife sorted that decision out

        lightowlers 01/11/17 11:31 AM Reply


    • I’ll be there as well , usually like to give Noel Meade runners a lot of consideration at the northern courses. That’s if he has any entries

      Chris Mcilfatrick 01/11/17 3:40 PM Reply


  • Very very unlucky Josh seems to have a big heart loads of fun to be had hope he comes out of the race AOK

    Aaron Lumsden 01/11/17 2:16 PM Reply


  • Nice 14/1 winner for the notes there not to mention a 6/1 winner for the ES+ stats to keep them chugging along.

    Nick Mazur 01/11/17 3:53 PM Reply


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