Members Daily Post: 31/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Catterick

1.05 –

Coiste Bodhar (micro going) 14 16/1 3rd 16/1>11/1

Sarabi (micro going) 14 I3 4/1 UP

Ebitda (micro going) H1 3/1 WON 3/1>4/1

1.35 – Nurse Nightingale (all hncps) I3 G3 5/1 UP

2.10 –

Al Khan (all hncps, 3yo+) 16/1 UP

Boots And Spurs (micro going) 14 H1 I3 13/2  S6 S2 2nd 5/1 

3.15 – Cross Fire (micro going) 14 I3 14/1 UP

3.45 – Laughton (all hncps, 3yo+) I1 12/1 S6

4.20 – Le Laitier (micro going) 14 G3 12/1 UP 16/1

 

JUMPS

Bangor

2.00 –

Pearlita (hncp hurdle) H1 I1 G3 7/2  S4 , UP

Sauvignon (m1) I3 5/2  UP

2.30- Ballycool (hncp chase) H3 4/1 UP

3.05 – Grand Turina (m2) I3 7/1 UP 20/1 

 

Chepstow

2.20 – Princess Roania (all hncps + m1) ES H1 9/1 S3 2nd 4/1 

3.55 –

Ordenscritter (all hncps) 33/1 UP

Cry Fury (amm hncps, m1) 14  ES 20/1 S3, S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 29th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 29th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/116, +120.5)

NOTES

Coiste Bodhar ... 3rd   at 16/1 I am struggling to resist a dabble on this, in the full knowledge that one of the other two probably wins- but with no strategies to back them up they are short enough for me in a C6 handicap. This one is a mercurial character and I suspect connections may have no idea when he is about to put his best foot forward. He has won out of the blue a few times before, on the back of shocking recent form. His SP has been between 12/1-20/1 for his last four wins, which may be some indication. This one returns to turf, drops in distance, and runs on soft. The cheekpieces also return (albeit 0/9,1p in those, but at least something different…his record in blinkers is much better,keep an eye on when they return). So, he is at least doing a few things differently from his last run. In flat handicaps he is 2/6,3p on soft, 4/13,5p OR 51-60, 3/9,5p returning 8-15 days (his optimum rest pattern,which he hasn’t ran in for a little while). This time last year he made all at Notts effectively off 57 with the claim, and then followed up with a 3rd in a C4 over CD, off 64 (after the claim). He is handicapped well enough to strike. LTO was the first time that attempted to make all in a while also, and hopefully they have him up there again today. He could just be out of sorts, but for an exposed horse, there was enough there to go on. And he seems to have ‘bouncebackability’ in his locker, seemingly from nowhere. So, with the trainer in form, at 16s, I will have a nibble.

Grand Turina...UP 20/1  just worth a go at 7s I think, because she is unexposed in this sphere, it being her second handicap hurdle. She won her NHF race on decent ground and while she may now prefer soft, it is an unknown. LTO she was pitched into a deep race, G2 Novice handicap, big field, and now drops back into calmer waters. She has shown ability to date, running well and then winning a novice hurdle. Fitness won’t be an issue, if VW wants her a1 on her first run. And I found it of interest that Charlie D rides, a possibility he could have gone to Chepstow- albeit I am not 100% sure how the jockeys work with Venetia, or what influence certain owners have. Charlie D and Liam T are the main riders now it seems. This one just has that ‘could be anything’ profile in handicap hurdles and at that price I want to have a small nibble. The market will no doubt guide. The fav may make all again and not see another horse. But he might not.

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That’s it for the notes.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The next three days…

A bit last minute (mainly as there is now a way I can get to the track) but I am off down south on Tuesday afternoon, to go and watch Really Super (who I have 5% in) run at Fakenham in the juvenile hurdle on Wednesday. I am staying over a friends on Tuesday/Wednesday evening. I will post Wednesday qualifiers on Tuesday afternoon, with the ratings pointers likely to follow later in the evening. Thursday’s qualifiers will be posted fairly late on Wednesday I think, or possibly Thursday morning- but I will do my best to get them up before then. Sorry for any inconvenience.

The horse… well she is fit enough if good enough…and we are all guessing as to that! Well. 🙂 you can look through her flat form and see the number of winners her races have produced. Whether she has developed/takes to hurdles, we are about to find out. She will come on for the experience, as most of these will. And that Alan King horse could no doubt be anything. We have a fighting chance I think. Hopefully she runs a decent race and gives us some hope for the future. Price allowing, I wouldn’t put anyone off an EW tickle.

UPDATE: I have just been informed that Really Super has ‘come into season’ – you don’t have any idea how this can affect fillies/mares until they race. Some it has no impact, some it makes more stubborn/recalcitrant, apparently. So, who knows! She will still be running.

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RESULTS: The advised strategies links have been updated within ‘The Key’, to flick through/absorb, as you please.

Not too much to say on those really… S4 in the jumps (treble rated), while clearly a small sample is looking rather solid. It will be interesting to see how that develops… but as always, the good thing with the strategies based on ‘ratings pointers’ is that their methodologies etc should stay constant, and in theory at least, over time such results may just keep repeating. Although i’d expect that SR to drop/a few losers, at some point. For those of you who prefer a very ‘select/less action’, approach, S4 over jumps may be no bad place to focus.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • It’s a day too soon, but Becauseshesaidso 145C looks a possible for Venetia W.
    Easy to see the horse enjoying this extreme trip, with those genes, on this 2nd go at fencing.
    Arguable that fitness is an issue and an easier race could have been found from this low a rating as an antidote to the optimist’s view that major progress is likely in such conditions.

    chrisrees 30/10/17 7:42 PM Reply


    • Yep, I have posted him up in free post, tracking them from now… market is usually a guide with hers, well not much runs a race when over 16/1 SP, not at this time of year/against those stats, anyway! Gl if you play. I will if he is in range.

      Josh 30/10/17 8:01 PM Reply


  • Best of luck with your runner Josh I hope a good day out is had at the least

    Aaron Lumsden 30/10/17 8:20 PM Reply


    • Cheers Aaron, it’s never racking anyway, even more so when you are half expectant of a decent run… as long as she comes back safe that is the main thing. I believe a table has been booked at the local curry house already, so i’m sure we will have a good time!

      Josh 30/10/17 8:30 PM Reply


  • Tracker horses

    Bangor on Dee

    12:55 Zalvados 5/1
    2:00 sauvignon 5/2
    3:05. Cave top. 2/1
    Have a look see what you think.

    Another from the tracker SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 3:45 catterick. Looks interesting but I did spot SEE THE SUN he was winning off a mark of 88 last year and today runs off a mark of 70.
    Both horses seem have the pace in the race between them. They may contest this one.

    Warren bottomley 30/10/17 10:16 PM Reply


  • Every where I’m going at the moment there appears to be mention of the forthcoming month and VW’s handicap chasers. Can’t help feeling that the bottom is going to drop out of the value bucket on this one some time very soon.

    Might just focus my attention on those that go off at decent odds (if any), this season.

    Tim Hanson 31/10/17 12:21 PM Reply


    • Where else have you seen it crop up Tim? This is the founding place for VW November research as I am aware, 3+ years, i have never stumbled across it anywhere else (albeit I have a narrow enough list of who I follow/what other stuff I read etc)…but given the stats/her record, i suppose it wasn’t going to be long before more people took note. It happens eventually with such niche angles, if you get folk like me sharing them widely enough! (with any luck many don’t catch on to the excluding 1 run in the last 90 day angle, as that is the key, systematically at least- or it has been)

      Josh 31/10/17 12:29 PM Reply


  • Venetia in November has cropped up in a couple of place, Secret Betting Club for one. I think it depends if we get much rain in Movember?

    I am sitting watching the racing having my lunch (the 3 dogs are begrudging me every mouthful) and saw Turtle Wars run on late to be a close third. One to watch next time for the Hendo stable. Also Ebitda sluiced up (and I had the 3/1) and looks set to come out again quick as it seems ahead of the handicapper.

    martin colwell 31/10/17 1:09 PM Reply


    • Ah, interesting.. yep, backing all of her runners in this month won’t win you much mind! Rain is irrelevant – at this time of year… well, her record within my angle on Good to Soft is as good as other going types- ‘good’ not decent but not many runners on that- of more importance is simply how much work she has been able to get into them. But if they are not ready she tends not to run them. Clearly most of hers handle heavy better than most (and her overall record would having you focusing on softer ground), esp around now, i should think due to a fitness edge maybe/and generally the type of horse she looks to buy. We shall see, Tim may be right- maybe the markets will cotton on, time will tell.

      Josh 31/10/17 1:18 PM Reply


    • Ebitda booked 2.30 Nottingham Wednesday 1st Nov. 2/1
      While the iron is hot……………

      Edmund Brooke 31/10/17 8:57 PM Reply


  • William Hill radio for one must have discussed it 2 maybe 3 times in the past week. At The Races discussed it in the studio when they were looking forward to the start of the jumps. I think it’s fair to say that it’s generally in the public domain. I remember Andrew Mount discussing it on William Hill radio last season so it’s not as though it’s a recent disclosure.

    Most likely everyone else who has Raceform and studies trainer trends will have spotted it which almost guarantees the attention of the big players. It’s a very simple system as it has so few variables particularly bearing in mind that soft ground is hardly a rare occurrence at this time of year.

    Tim Hanson 31/10/17 1:24 PM Reply


  • Looks really hard work at Chepstow, looks soft to my eyes.
    Desert sensation 1.45 looks a good bet. Dropped another 2lbs & returns to a softer surface with previous course form. 9/1 looks a bit big.

    Dom J 31/10/17 1:28 PM Reply


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