Free Daily Post: 31/10/17 (complete)

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams Nov (16/1 or shorter SP)

1.45 Chep – Becauseshesaidso

Trainer/Jockey Combo – live test

2.50 Chep – Wylde Magic (12/1<)

 

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Nothing else from me today.

Josh

 

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17 Comments

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  • just for a bit of fun thought i would try to find a “biggie” at Chepstow
    1-15. Sprogzilla 40-1, has placed twice @66-1 and 50-1 in C5’s and today gets the fillies allowance and has a good 7lb claimer on board so 14lb better off than anything else in the race. £1 ew
    1-45. as above VW has Becauseshesaidso 22-1, Gary Priestley has put up Just Joelliott 16-1 and one other that is completely from left field is Tea Time Fred 28-1 will either fall be PU or get in the places but i’ll have a £1 ew as my dad is Fred.
    2-20. i quite fancy Rif Raftou 15-2 but not a biggie so my £1 ew will go on Hartside 22-1 dropping back in class and on a winnable mark of 100.
    nothing in the 2-50 and 3-25
    3-55. Ordensritter 33-1 SL write up “Not seen out since January 2016, and you have to go back to 2014 to find his last win. Very well handicapped on best form and good ground here would suit, so with good conditional booked, another that will require a market check in a weak race.” £1 ew, Beallandendall 28-1 is GP’S pick and i’ll have a £1 ew on that as well.

    martin whittle 31/10/17 7:30 AM Reply


    • Martin
      I will add 1 more to your list

      ASTIGOS
      2.30Bangor down 23lb from last winning mark.
      Last won Feb 16 C4 off 120 today 97
      I had Awesome Alan yesterday 15lb better of than last win shortish price.

      GL

      Mike

      mickeydee 31/10/17 8:53 AM Reply


      • I’ve backed it every time it’s ran, including when it won at 20/1 i think, but got about 25/1 on betfair. The reason i back it is because it has 2 L’s in Allan and that’s my name……….Allan

        Allan 31/10/17 10:56 AM Reply


  • GOLF BETS SHRINERS hospitals for Children

    Webb Simpson 1 point ew 1/5 7 20/1 CO PP
    Horses for courses springs to mind for Webb won here in 2013 and he also has had two top four finishes in his last six visits to TPC Summerlin.

    Kevin Streelman 1 point ew 1/5 7 50/1 CO 1/4 5 888 Unibet Betstars
    Kevin has a fine record at TPC Summerlin including a runner up spot in 2015 and with Coral going 1/5 first 7 he must be backed.

    colin leafe 31/10/17 8:46 AM Reply


    • Did not put the golf returns
      September Profit 21 points
      October Profit 21.6 points
      Total Profit 42.6 points

      colin leafe 31/10/17 9:25 AM Reply


    • I see the form angle re Webb Simpson but he does struggle to get over the line these days. I like Byeong An each way at 45/1 myself. He is a bit streaky but has had some low rounds in October.

      martin colwell 31/10/17 10:11 AM Reply


  • The 1.15 at Chepstow could turn out to be an above average race of its type as the season progresses and I have 3 in my long term tracker to watch with interest today, they may have scope to win or be very competitive coming from P2P fields and one a decent NHF prospect but I’d anticipate Ballygowan Boy; Canelo and High Noon all winning races sooner rather than later. At Bangor in the 12.55 Dostal Phil, a French import is also one to be very favourably mentioned and another to follow season long.

    ian@sp2a 31/10/17 9:03 AM Reply


    • I agree with you Ian on the 1:15 potentially being an above average race. I have Out of Style in my tracker from comments in Mark Howard’s Cheltenham update in March where Paddy Brennan put this one up at one of the preview evenings as one he was really looking forward to riding after Cheltenham. He claimed he is very decent. There had been some nibbles at 12’s/10’s last night, but my only slight reservation is the fact it has looked difficult to get him on a racecourse following a good P2P win in 2015. I’ve had to have a go though GL.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 31/10/17 10:14 AM Reply


      • Good Luck with that Chris

        I have huge respect for Mark Howard, he like Paul Ferguson though are paradoxically “too good” as often their “dark horses” are backed off the boards 1-2nd time out based purely on the respect and excellent reputations they have.

        I love this period with a “medium-long term” hat on, as by watching and learning and tracking accurately, it is a bit like stocking up your freezer for the next 6-12-18 months as you can learn and prepare so much!

        ian@sp2a 31/10/17 10:46 AM Reply


  • Also having a go on Cry Fury (20/1 WH) in 3:55 Chep. from a micro I have for Sheppard /Sheppard in Hcp’s at Chepstow 19/7 +34 pts, but no winners to-date above 12/1, where it improves to 16/7 +37 pts. Yet to win, but on a low mark and has been nibbled at 20’s with some BM’s.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 31/10/17 10:45 AM Reply


    • have tipped that one up at 20’s; have a lot of time for Matt; he trains in idyllic surroundings and as I mentioned this morning, I think young Sam has come on leaps and bounds especially after patronage from PFN where he can’t do anything but learn, horse has crucial fitness advantage today over many too an drop in trip won’t harm chances G/L.

      ian@sp2a 31/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


      • Ian

        MAN LOOK @ 12/1….always will read between the lines in your future messages, but ?????

        norman 31/10/17 3:17 PM Reply


        • I think that’s the 4th time in 4-5 days that “the throwaway” has won and the tips have not.

          The tips are the tips, the add on’s are that and I always try to be 100% transparent and don’t do booms or make any claims that are not tips and noted as tips.

          That said it is bloody annoying but I hope some see the “bigger picture”. I think it may be time to explore the “rigidity” of 3-4 tips whilst not becoming just another one of those that tip too many and then make spurious claims.

          Bottom line Norman is tips did crap today; if any had the throw away line “We looked closely at one race at Bangor, in the 3.05 it is hard to argue against Cave Top, impressive at Exeter last weekand Trainer Oliver Greenall (one to follow has a clutch of runners today); the obvious each way punt in that race if you want it at about 7/1 is MAN LOOK but that’s just for a bit of added info and won’t be classed as a tip” then WELL DONE!

          ian@sp2a 31/10/17 4:19 PM Reply


          • I think this is a prime example of finding the right price. I personally looked at the race last night for 30 minutes and after going around in circles decided that it looked too tricky and 7/1 wasn’t giving enough value even as an E/W bet given Cave Top in there and several others who looked like they had a decent chance despite the Kennedy/McCain/Bangor/front runner angle so I think Ian made the right call this morning. If he has been 12/1 last night I would have tipped it (personally had £5 e/w when it went to 11s) and I suspect Ian/guys at SP2A might have had a closer look at it but as a tipster you cannot anticipate for a horse to drift to almost twice the price and win.

            Nick Mazur 31/10/17 4:40 PM Reply


            • Spot on that Nick = hit the metophorical tipping “g spot” LOL.

              It is all about price and as you say, would not have expected that to drift given connections there!

              This kind of scenario is happening too often though for us and too much potential profit is being identified but not firmed up, need to have a re-think, and the more flexible and expansive thinking of the guys on here has certainly opened my eyes and is much appreciated; in terms of framing a product to suit more “switched on” punters when it comes to opportunity and speculating.

              Thanks All!

              ian@sp2a 31/10/17 4:46 PM Reply


            • Nick & Ian

              luckily after reading this morning’s SP2a’s email, I was happy to back Man Look at the BOG of 8/1…..and so very pleased that it won @ 12/1 but I do agree that creating a long list of horses to back/or consider to back can defeat the object of getting a profit….comes back to that word “selectivity”…..and the prices on offer are one of those ways to reduce bets
              I personally feel more confident if a horse drifts in price these days rather than jump onto a bet being selected by the “steamer” fraternity

              norman 31/10/17 4:54 PM Reply


  • I think Man Look at 12/1 was a stand out bet E/W, do you think that the bookmakers under price markets because of them offering BOG.

    Greg Phillips 31/10/17 8:10 PM Reply


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