Members Daily Post: 29/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

JUMPS

Aintree

1.50 –

Masters Hill (hncp chase) 14/1 S2 UP

Theatrical Star (hncp chase) G1 8/1   S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

2.25 – Burbank (m1,m1) H3 11/2 UP

3.00 – Third Intention (hncp chase + m1) 11/1 S2 UP

 

Wincanton

1.00-

Satellite (all hncps) 15/2 UP

Gibbes Bay (hncp hurdle + m1) 14,30 ES+H1 G3 10/3 S3A S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Cotsworld Road (m1) 22/1 S2 UP

2.45 –

Bally Longford (hncp chase) ES+ 9/2  S3A  UP

Gentleman Jon (hncp chase) ES+H3 I3 G3 7/2  S3A  S4   S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  3rd 

Forgotten Gold (m1) I3 G1 9/1   S1  2nd 

Mr Mix (m2) 14,30 ES+H3 I1 5/2 S3A  WON 5/2> 11/4 

Boa Island (m2) 14,30ES+  16/1 S2  S3A UP

4.30 – Ivors Queen (m1) H3 10/3 WON 10/3>9/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/114, +122.5)

 

NOTES… nothing to add really. Looks a head scratcher of a day.  In the 2.45 I would probably say, at the prices, Bally Longford looks most interesting to my eyes, but that may not be saying much. I would be mildly surprised if Forgotten Gold or Boa Island were good enough but we know what happens now.

I am off to Aintree shortly and that card is giving me a headache also. I may add some notes on the free post (they are below) but won’t be ‘tipping’ anything I don’t think, and probably won’t back anything until I am track side. I like to test my dodgy paddock eye- albeit all the paddock judges were put off Cogry yesterday who looked tubby- so, that can be deceptive! I am a novice when it comes to such things but it is good fun taking a view. I am fully expecting to leave the track today poorer than when I arrived.

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Aintree Notes…

I have had a flick through the card and am not expecting much. I am not backing anything before I set off… I do like betting with the bookies track side when I go racing..all part of the experience and good to support the independents in that way, rather than the big online firms all the time.. of course I hope they will be giving me money but I don’t hold out too much hope…

12.40 – ‘paddock eye’ … Enniscoffee (Lavelle in form/could be about to have her autumn run) / Perfect Harmony (quick chat with Paul Ferguson on twitter,who i’ll catch up with trackside – he has an eye for the unexposed horses etc, and has backed him EW…so, that is enough for me!) They may be both chasing the Hendo horse if the market is to be believed.

1.15 – Shantou Tiger... well there is a chance he gets an easy enough lead here so I have to back him. He will be up there for a long way…he is fit, and in form. Very unfortunate the last day when going ok. He will try his best and should be there turning in. After that, who knows. The Vaughan horse looked interesting also (another trainer I have a close eye on, that Cheltenham win will give the team a real buzz,that will transmit to the horses,and they may run even better than they have been), Monsieur Arkadin… he is fit,in form, could be more to come. He races prominently also.

1.50 – Ben Bens / Romford Pele … are the two who caught eye… NTD has hit ‘peak form’ again, having been doing ok… I want to keep many of his onside today I think. He won this race two years ago and must have been a target. The harder they go the better for him. RP- has a super record fresh and is now with Tom George. Given how Curtis has gone in the last couple of seasons that could be quite an upgrade. Tom George is another I have my eye on today, you feel he is about to burst into life- maybe… I find it interesting that Sam TD is here today, and not Wincanton..he will be here to ride 1 horse maybe, who knows what..maybe Nicholls wanted him on his bumper horse… OR his dad had a word to see if he could come up. PN would get the say on that and I would think he has sent him up here. That is more for later in the card… I don’t think Astracad is winning..!?  I looked at Theatrical Star… a chance but I do fear this may happen a bit too quick for him…Masters Hill...was awful in this last year and his profile looked questionable… two TTP quals above though so who knows! Gas Line Boy was the other on my shortlist of 5… one/two of those will be backed, definitely BenBens I think, just due to Twisters form in recent days.

2.25 – Massinis Trap... he won this race last year and I wonder if this has been a target. He dotted up…Townend was over for the ride which didn’t register with me until he dotted up! This time he has booked one of the hottest young claimers around… that did catch my eye. Stamp Your Feet looked interesting, and Bags Groove… I will try and use my ‘paddock eye’ also, Massinis will definitely get some change at that price.

3.00 – crickey… God’s Own.. I backed him in this last year and bar for being hampered would have won I think, maybe. He will have been aimed at this I think, and should run a big race. Traffic Fluide is an interesting one, Moore is in form, and he hits a free post TJC angle. I may throw something at him. Another for the ‘paddock eye’ – this looks really tough. Malcolm Jefferson’s may run a fine race also, 5s was looking on the ‘ok/short side’ to my eye. We shall see. More a race to enjoy than go mad on.

3.35 – BallyArthur… market may guide but it is Twister, and Sam is up… this former point winner should make a decent chaser in time. This is his first chase in public… the only time to be confident on those types from this yard is when they are fancied, 6/1< really. He will do, in an open race. Maybe something else will jump out at me.

4.10 – Well… who knows. The Nicholls horse may dot up but based on the trainers/their recent form… three caught the eye… Ben Paulings, Emma Lavelles, and Jack Barber’s. I will throw change at those three at the prices, paddock may guide!

 

The italics bold horses are ones I will be backing to some degree I think, track side…more a case of talking myself out of them when there. Which I may do for the odd one. That is a quick run through and I will be playing with £5s generally, from my ‘at the races’ betting bank. More a social occasion, cracking day out, and racing to enjoy. When you leave a race track having done £200+ say, it ruins it a bit. Or is that just me! Aintree always goes one of two ways for me.. it is glorious, or very very painful. I have had a few trips there where I haven’t backed a winner. You have been warned. 🙂 

Do with that lot as you please. Clearly if I wasn’t going racing I wouldn’t be touching most of those races, outside of any stats pointers within this page or the free post.

GL with any bets.

Josh

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD (all Aintree)

1.50 –

Astracad (m1,22/1<, m4)

BenBens (m1, 22/1<, m4)

3.00 – Ballybolley (m1, 22/1<)

3.35 – Ballyarthur (m1 22/1<, m6)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Exclusive Offer… 

No big sales pitch here,which never feels right in my own members’ club!… but just to say I had a word with my good pal Ben Aitken and if you were thinking about joining his service, the link below gets you on the cheapest deal… that was for his returning subscribers/early bird list, but he has reinstated it for any of my members who wish to give it a go. I know there are a few of you on here who are members of both. Any positive reviews in comments are welcome. There are some similarities in what we do but even in that we are different,and whereas our core focus is clearly on daily action driven by track stats etc, he does a lot more trends coverage (140 odd races), his Under The Radar Squad, and weekend notes- which are superb. Anyway… this is just for those of you who may have joined anyway, you can save yourself a few quid… link HERE>>> 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Are you sure we have enough qualifiers in the 14:45 at Wincanton? 😉

    Nick Mazur 28/10/17 5:57 PM Reply


    • Silly really! And you know full well if I try and pick 2 out, one of others wins! Know idea how I will attack that personally as yet, but wont be backing them all!

      Josh 28/10/17 5:58 PM Reply


      • All about taking the rough with the smooth with my approach. Given I had Cogry twice today I guess I can live with being on the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th and 6th in that race tomorrow. Just avoid whatever I tip after today and you will be ok.

        Nick Mazur 28/10/17 6:07 PM Reply


      • breaking my own back ’em all rule would be 22pts on that race with my staking plan so i’m giving the race a miss just having £2 on Boa Island and Forgotten gold for fun.

        martin whittle 29/10/17 12:47 AM Reply


  • After an excellent day at Cheltenham with my system qualifiers picking 4 winners including Cogry and the the other NTD winner I am now showing 21 bets to play tomorrow!…Great, just what I needed to protect those winnings!…I’ll be spending most of the afternoon behind the sofa I think. I’ll share a couple of them here, ones that are bigger prices and perhaps not mentioned by anyone else round here yet. All at Aintree…12:40 Enniscoffey Oscar (hate maidens, why is this a system bet!)..10/1 though…..the Tom George runners in the 1:50 veterans chase…..and the NTD runners in the 1:15…nothing too leftfield but the prices seem fair enough, just hope I can get 2 or 3 somewhere to cover the 21 bets and preserve Saturdays good fortune!!..Sorry for not giving any logic or reasoning, they are just system bets after all …I just follow my rules!..you never know I might be on a roll!!!…(rolling off a cliff more like!)

    Chris Albin 29/10/17 12:17 AM Reply


  • Going to have to side with gentleman John (fun stakes) treble rated .paddy Brennan front running (from Ben aitkin mini angle) .last year ran at wincanton then came back for the win.grounds a worry but paddy Brennan owes we nothing this year had some stonking winners with him so I’ll be cheering him on .

    jamie2255 29/10/17 7:39 AM Reply


  • Mr H Cobden riding for PF Nicholls at Wincanton
    2m6f or less
    Maiden Hurdle, Novice Hurdle and Chase, Handicap Hurdle and Chase and Handicap Novice Chase

    16 winners from 21 rides producing a profit of 25.66 points

    David Peat 29/10/17 8:14 AM Reply


  • 13.50 Aintree
    No Planning – I wonder if this is the race the trainer had in mind when giving the horse a run out over hurdles at Wetherby this month. He is not eaxctly running to profile, as in he has yet to win in large fields in 8 attempts, but these races are often won by horses racing outside of their profile. I do think that Gas Line Boy could be a danger as this is his time of year and all 5 wins have come when racing in October to December and all 5 wins have come in races worth less than 20k.

    David Peat 29/10/17 8:22 AM Reply


    • Potter Cross had a recent blow and should be fitter for the 1.50. He seems well handicapped. It looks hard at Aintree today and so no big bets. I like Global Citizen in the first but it is drifting. I have had a bet on Return Flight, 2.25, just because it looked value at 15/2. I hear a good word for L’Chamise, 4.10, at 16/1 for small stakes.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 29/10/17 10:35 AM Reply


  • Josh have a good day at Aintree and keep your eye on Richard Johnson and Sam Twiston – Davies
    Johnson profit 10.5 points from 5 rides
    STD profit 5.80 points from 10 rides
    both at BFEX SP

    colin leafe 29/10/17 10:27 AM Reply


    • 150 The well handicapped Mr First, trained in Ireland with Dicky back (2 past wins), might be worth a few pennies.

      chrisrees 29/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


  • System o/s horse Wexford 3.10 The Church Gate. 16/1 currently.
    Explanation on the blog.
    Any thoughts Jack.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 29/10/17 11:24 AM Reply


  • Im a Return Flight(12/1 e/w) backer too , although i have added Stamp your Feet (A 2.25 ) 2 young horses who look to have something to offer . RF won over fences off this mark and SYF went straight into my tracker following last months run and the 8/1 looked fair.

    joners 29/10/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • I’ve been using Ben Aitken for a couple of years now and whilst I don’t always strictly follow his advice to the letter I certainly use it to help with my own research. However when I am stuck in a race and I don’t have the foggiest I just go with his picks like the 16/1 Smad Place winning the Old Roan today. Its a shame that through reasons outside his control he no longer has the dosage method as an extra angle however I agree that his weekly notes are excellent. (if I listed to them I might have picked out Bags Groove today)

    Nick Mazur 29/10/17 3:55 PM Reply


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