Free Daily Post: 27/10/17 (complete)

Hmm… well Landmeafortune did anything but and may still be running. Those of you who mused that he may not be up to this level, would get outclassed etc, were spot on. I got that one wrong but would probably make the same bet again at the odds! He was there, travelling and jumping well, for the most part.. but when the taps turned he couldn’t go with them. Given how Presented ran, I am minded to think that on this ground, in this class, he may not have stayed. I thought he would. Anyway. What can I learn/ponder about on the winner… 6s< I always think is too short for one without an ‘after a break winning profile’ especially when it is a slog. There are two things I didn’t appreciate fully with Courtown Oscar.. he arguably had the best form on paper in this (and clearly likes it here) and the trainer’s record with readying them after a break was solid- and to a point made the horse’s record irrelevant…especially since he had never returned to action in ‘ideal conditions’ and ran well enough on return last year. That is all with hindsight of course, and I am still not sure i’d have got to a place to back him at his generally available morning price. Oh, I also didn’t appreciate that he may get an easy enough lead! Poor. Maybe all combined, made 6s decent, 7s certainly so. Always something to ponder. Moving on… (all eyes on the 3rd there…you’d think he may have a nice pot in him this season… you’d like to see him going close on one of his next couple of starts)

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TIPS

4.20 – Cheltenham

Bugsie Malone – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) Fell

Regal Flow – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 3rd 16/1

Petite Power – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 4th 16/1

 

Decent enough run from 2 of them there, winner was long gone mind! I wasn’t close to finding him so back to the drawing board there. 

 

Ah, well, I just couldn’t help myself really! I know, you know, everyone knows, that my first reaction post race will probably be ‘why did I play in that’ – but my aim is to try and solve these puzzles and not bothering feels a bit like defeat to me. A 3m+ handicap chase at Cheltenham… I just had to have a go. My head, and probably gut, says i’m an idiot, but I am excited to see these three run…

Bugsie Malone – an interesting horse who has more upside potential than most in here, and certainly, at the prices (and with his unexposed profile) looks the most interesting of the fit horses in this. He comes here having had a spin over hurdles LTO which I thought interesting… it may indicate this has been an early season target. As would the jockey bookinig.. Ms Andrews is 8/27,10,+61 in handicap chases! (does inc a 40/1 winner, which was here..she even rides the track well) That caught my eye. Having watched the videos back of this horse I am intrigued to see him at this track.. he looks like staying chaser in the making and with any luck is stronger than last season. I am hoping he relishes this stiff 25f. It ‘could’ be the making of him. His jumping was decent when last seen chasing and with any luck that holds him in good stead. He can also race up with the pace, which I always like- provided they don’t do too much too soon. Gordon is 1/13 at the track and his have been going well enough in recent weeks. He just had that unexposed profile in conditions, comes here fit, and is well worth a go here. 9s seemed fair enough. With any luck he may drift.

Regal Flow – well if he drifts I may be concerned! I have sat on the fence with this one but he has won this race before and is only one of two course winners in the line up (Indian Castle the other). Despite his age this is ‘only’ his 14th handicap chase. Fitness is the question.. I had a look at Bob Buckler with handicap chasers (which are his ‘thing’,all about the chaser) in the last 5 years returning 121-365 days.. and he is 4/18,7p, 3/10,4p since he moved yards I think… I also went for a hunt around on his website… this one gets a mention in one of their updates as this being the target (which I hoped it would be given he has won it before) and in his last bulletin Bob says the horse looks a lot stronger than he did before last year’s race- which is a good job, as he was rubbish in that. He books a jockey who has won the 4 miler around here, which is a positive. Clearly I am taking fitness on trust but there is enough evidence above to have a go at 16/1. If he drifts beyond that I won’t have much hope. If he ran to his best he goes close here and was in form when last seen.

Petite Power – 14s has lured me in for last year’s winning trainer. There is every chance he needs the run but he isn’t a single figure price and I will take the chance. There is a possibility he takes one or two fences with him and may not be good enough! I’m selling him here! BUT…he is another with an unexposed profile who will have more to come over fences one day. Having watched a few of his recent runs back he does look like a dour stayer in the making- I am excited to see what he can do around 25f at this most challenging of tracks. It could be this big field, stronger pace, and trip suits him to the ground. There should be more to come this year and is one to keep an eye on. He has had a tendency to hit fences later on in his races, when closing on leaders, so I am braced for the worse. This young jockey is decent enough and knows how to ride a chaser to victory. They usually try and be aggressive with their chasers and he may be up there- if having the speed to hold a position early. I’d like to think Fergal may have targeted this race and i’d be sick if he won with no support- with fitness the only reason I wouldn’t play- I get 14/1 to find out.

So, one of them or more could go very close here. There are reasons why they could join Landmeafortune and still be running long after the winner has crossed the line! 🙂 that’s how I play this long distance chasing game.

Of the rest…

I can leave the Elliot horse at 4s who has stamina to prove at a track like this. He may relish it. I can live with him winning. As I can Indian Castle at what is now 7/1 or so… were he 14s+ I may have had a saver/pondered some more.. but that is a long time off the track even for a yard in red hot form. If a1, and mentally on song, he could win this very well. He does still have to prove he really stays this trip around here and some of his best form has been on much softer- i do wonder if he will get tapped for toe/too far back. We shall see. It would be great to see a horse like this bounce back into form. But at his price I will let him beat me.

I really wasn’t leaping up and down to back anything else…

Sporting Boy’s price seems fair but this is a new test and he won a race that seemingly fell apart the last day. It looked too good to be true. Maybe he is just in the form of his life and he will dot up again.This is a very different test to the last day but he deserves his place here. Azure Fly is now 0/7,1p at the track and while he did run on for second in this last year was beaten well enough- i’d like to think a more unexposed/lightly raced one would have his measure.. but he will keep going, is fit and in form. So on that basis no shock. If many of these do indeed need the run, much like that Exeter chase, he is what you would call the ‘solid’ option I suppose- provided he doesn’t get too far back – which is the fear with him around here if they go a pace, on this ground, over 25f. Capard King is the only other I was mildly interested in and I suspect the market will guide. He has to prove he handles big fields, and this track fully, and has a fitness question. He needed the run in this last year but Jonjo is mercurial, and he can ready them. He just had a few too many questions for me and has always looked better on soft,and flatter tracks.

I may not have mentioned the winner of course, so we shall see. Hopefully those three can give me a run for my money.

And if they all fall in a hole, maybe I am then best waiting for races where most of the runners have had a run! A fair bit of guesswork at this time of year, which in general is why I want a big price for those with fitness unknowns.

GL if you play, you brave souls!

Josh

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

2.50 Newb- Precious Ramotswe

4.45 Donc – Pouvoir Magique

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That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • Yes, Josh, Shanroe Santos looked one run off fitness come the final fence.
    Do they have a target, you wonder, as this was a fine prep?

    chrisrees 26/10/17 7:14 PM Reply


    • I’d be surprised if they didn’t have a race in Sandown in mind maybe? Well he has won there, and she always likes targeting races there with La Reve. That was some move a couple out.. he was held up right out the back which is never where you want to be, esp when the leader wasn’t stopping.. had to make up ground in heavy, jumping well etc… on the back of a shocker on seasonal reappearance.. i doub’t he will go under the radar next run but that was a decent run… he may not have fully got home in that ground either..he will always need some luck if ridden that far back…they really should race him up there more!

      Josh 26/10/17 7:18 PM Reply


  • Nothing I like enough to tip although have had small £5 e/w darts for interest on First Eleven (Newbury 14:15)-Gosden/Dettori factor, Instant Karma (Cheltenham 17:30)-repeat of his Ascot run 12 months ago and he romps here but has lost his way, jockey hasn’t won for 7 months and trainer has a terrible record here and Petite Power (Cheltenham 16:20)-trainer won this last year, jockey solid, form franked and runs well fresh but I can make a case for half the field.

    Nick Mazur 26/10/17 7:54 PM Reply


  • Hi josh, I enjoy reading your informative posts etc and have downloaded Cleeves freebie today. Quick question, do they give away a 10 to follow each flat as well or is it just for the jumps.

    Paul Cockerill 26/10/17 9:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul, hopefully always something informative at least- that’s the minimum I aim for! Good question… I am not 100% sure, just Jumps I think, not sure I have ever sent anything out for them on flat, but no reason they couldn’t I suppose. They know their onions, generally, over time! Am sure if enough requested it they may.

      Josh 26/10/17 9:12 PM Reply


  • Are there some “rules” when to use bog or betting on BFSP?

    Marcel 26/10/17 11:11 PM Reply


    • B.O.G.

      Rule 1 Check out the prices on oddschecker in the morning
      to see which BOG firm is going best price

      Rule 2 if you are taking on a short priced fav with a bigger priced e/w selection
      always take the best morning price at bog
      bookies hate these races and the sps on e/w horses against short priced horses will be shorter in 99% of case

      Rule 3 when taking early prices look at the market percentage
      if at best early prices they are betting to 102%
      then there isn’t much wiggle room in the market
      at 123% it is likely that the BETFAIR SPS
      will be bigger.

      Rule 4 it is possible to trade using BOG
      If you can find a horse at 2/1 best early price for example that can be laid off
      on one of the exchanges at the same price.

      eg back horse X at 2/1 with Coral for £100 lay off on betfair at 2/1 for a £100(at the same time)
      if it win you win and lose £200 if it loses you win and lose a hundred
      no point if the price stays the same or shortens but if the horse drifts to 7/2
      you have your hundred on at 7/2 but only stand to lose £200 on your lay
      so you have a £150 free bet

      Rule 5
      if you are dutching then back the 2+ horses you fancy
      at bog at the morning prices with different BOG firms
      when the books are 105% or less.
      it means you are very close to a break even book
      and with a little price movement BOG can send you under the 100%

      RULE 6 in the grand national always take
      bog first thing as the on course bookies offer a much lower return on sp

      RULE 7
      If Backing e/w in big races check out the place terms.
      in the national for example most of the top firms will
      go 4 places but some may go up to 7
      the prices are usually a bit shorter
      a 4 place firm may be 25/1 horse X for example
      but the firm going 7 place may only be going 20/1

      compare the prices and see if you think taking 20/1 e/w with 3 extra place is better the25/1
      with only 3

      Rule 8 if you fancy any horse bigger than 20/1 it is a very high percentage chance that it will be bigger on the exchanges

      The higher you go the bigger margin it will be
      66/1 shots often can be backed at 300/1 or bigger on betfair
      while a 1000/1 will be offered on a 250/1 chance very often

      peter 27/10/17 11:18 AM Reply


      • Ty Peter. Appreciate your clear answer.

        Marcel 27/10/17 11:31 AM Reply


    • No need to over-complicate things really, not if your’e a recreational punter, playing £5s-£25s say.

      -i’d say generally always take BOG.. while it is around, and you can get on with all the bookies etc. In theory we should all be backing horses that shorten in price as we have spotted ‘value’ and as such taking BFSP against taking a price, should be a less over time. Certainly you wouldn’t have made much on my free Jumps tips if taking BFSP.

      -it is tricky but generally evens out – there will be some races/bets, where there is no movement…esp 20s+ shots… if they stay around the same price their BFSPs can be massive… take Stamp Hill…won for the blog at 50/1 at Ascot, in a trends/stats shortlist… he was 140.000 BFSP… or Hartforth who won for Members stats last November.. 50/1 SP (drifted from 25s), 150.00 BFSP or so! Those are rare examples, but a case of picking and choosing… there is no exact science. There was a time when BOG didn’t exist etc.

      no set rules, but with bigger priced ones if you can keep an eye on the price that can be wise, esp on the machine… 290 points versus +100 for those two examples above is quite a big difference!

      Josh

      Josh 27/10/17 11:31 AM Reply


      • Only issue for now is that I am limited at some bookies I need for BOG, or they not allow me because I am from the Netherlands. When this will be an issue I will be somehow more creative to bet in BOG bookies. These will be limited time after time I guess also in hracing when they see you have an edge.

        Marcel 27/10/17 11:40 AM Reply


        • Yep.. have you ever looked at how much/how many of your bets drift and then win? I think we will all hit a point where we will have to just back our own long term assessment of value… always option to get whatever you can on at a price on BF exchange. And then make call if a massive drift to ‘top up’ . Not too many of my tips drift that much passed initial prices I don’t think… it’s not easy but i personally don’t think there are any hard and fast rules as such, but that’s just me.

          Josh 27/10/17 11:45 AM Reply


        • Limited accounts are a big hazard for on line players
          as the bookies can see a complete records of all your
          transactions
          so if they spot you placing large e/w bet against odds on favs
          or you are a top punter who is a serial winner they will
          usually restrict your account to very small p/l
          Paddy power haven’t closed my account but I can only bet to a £30
          liability etc.

          by nature I can a pretty poor punter but a whizz at numbers
          Arbing and match betting made me a few quid
          but bookies hate arbers and all my accouts are restricted

          There are ways around it, you can open accounts in relatives
          names but if you do
          make sure they are not at the same address
          If you have accounts in yours and your wifes name for example(perfectly Legal)
          if they are at the same address they will be linked and soon restricted

          Less common knowledge if you are betting in a relatives name don’t use
          the same computer as the IP addresses are traced.

          I had a bet365 account restricted after 1 bet when my wife opened an account for me
          it was at a different address but I used the same computer
          and they were linked

          there are plenty of firms that offer Bog that are not in the main stream
          so google for the smaller firms

          New players to the market often offer plenty of incentives
          one warning though don’t have to much money in any of those new accounts
          if they are not up to it and go pear shaped
          then you could lose your whole balance

          if that is £50 then you take it on the chin
          on the other hand if you have a big sum in the account
          then you can take a big hit.

          Josh’s site isn’t really the place for me to expand on these sort of matters
          as he offer a fantastic racing services for his patrons and arbing and trading isn’t really his MO
          but if you have any questions about this sort of thing feel free to e-mail me
          peterroywalker@outlook.com

          Josh Ian and Martin(plus a few others) are the guys for racing.
          I am just good with numbers
          Pete

          PETER 27/10/17 12:44 PM Reply


          • You can always trade and post on horses at bigger odds as sometimes they do get matched and if they do not you have not lost anything? Not just Betfair, also Matchbook, Smarkets, Betdaq. No restrictions and commission free days most weeks.
            Ladbrokes and Betfred allow me a max bet of £1. I keep the accounts live to annoy them. Bet365 and Black Type are the only two who dont restrict me on horses, but some are at a high level and so no issues for the recreational punter.

            martin colwell 27/10/17 12:53 PM Reply


  • Not racing, but best laugh I’ve had recently ( Especially after today’s results). During the delay in the draw for the League Cup (New round, new fiasco!) a woman tweeted that she’d probably be in labour before the draw took place. And she wasn’t even pregnant!
    Loved it

    Pat O'Connell 26/10/17 11:14 PM Reply


  • is it better to have 3 or 4 race P2P experience when going
    racing under rules or will one or two be just as good stats wise

    I saw yesterday BALLYKNOCK CLOUD(Jack Barber man to watch with this type) won and RAVENSDALE was 2nd(behind the Ben Pauling horse
    who he described as very special) and both had multiple p2p runs

    Slate house won an Irish P2P last year and was sold for £260,000
    he makes his rules debut today in the 4.55 and is odds on
    but I think he is odds on because of the price tag and Tizards praise.

    He may be a wonder house but a 2 mile novice hurdle on fast ground may be a
    sharp enough test for him.

    Dans le vent was 6th in the Champion bumper and although only 3rd on hurdles debut
    he was dropped out behind a front runner and never got into the race
    I think today is the plan and he may have a bit to much pace for the Tizard p2p horse

    At the Prices DANS LE VENT looks an e/w bet to nothing

    peter 27/10/17 9:20 AM Reply


    • DLV now 4/1. You would think he would progress from his last run and so that should in theory make him hard to beat.

      martin colwell 27/10/17 9:52 AM Reply


      • Much shorter now so 4/1 was a decent play

        peter 27/10/17 1:04 PM Reply


  • Grade one courses Ryan Moore four rides today will record three the one to omit is 2.25 Breath Caught which could end up odds on

    colin leafe 27/10/17 9:57 AM Reply


  • National Hunt grade one courses again this is only a test no proven stats
    to be recorded
    Brian Cooper 2 rides today now first jockey to Colin Tizzard
    Barry Geraghty 1 ride today now first jockey to Nicky Henderson,will also ride more JP Mcmanus horses
    Richard Johnson 1 ride today
    Sam Twiston-Davies 4 rides today

    colin leafe 27/10/17 10:35 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin, could you explain your theory in regard to the test? is it that you believe certain jockeys to perform better at grade 1 courses?

      jamesp 27/10/17 10:54 AM Reply


      • Hi James
        Yes top jockeys ride the best horses in the top races and are retained by the top trainers last season on saturday it was always Nichols and Sam Twiston- Davies winning the principal race,also on grade one courses you have better prices because of the quality of the opposition.
        On a previous post a non betting person said 30 years ago that if he bet he would look no further than Dettori when riding for the boys in blue i am a little slow on the uptake for could be logic in this,will have to see over the season,but year on year it is the top trainers top jockeys winning the top races.
        cheers
        colin

        colin leafe 27/10/17 11:46 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin

      Where did you hear that Barry is back to being Henderson’s no 1? Thought he was still primarily employed by JP? Same with Cooper for Tizzard?

      Regards
      Nick

      Nick Mazur 27/10/17 11:00 AM Reply


      • Hi Nick
        Cooper was announced towards end of last season and he rode most of Tizzards horses at Aintree.
        Geraghty did ride Mcmanus horses last season for Henderson and Nico De Bournville is stable jockey and the situation is the same this year.
        cheers
        colin

        colin leafe 27/10/17 11:30 AM Reply


        • I don’t think Cooper is stable jockey. He is first rider for all of the UK based Alan Potts horses… Robbie Power is Alan Potts rider in Ireland (Jessie H has first call on him).. but has first call on the UK horses if he is free..
          Cooper has ridden 3 of tizzards last 25 runners… he has used Cobden quite a bit who rides for him now more, Tom Scudamore, Robbie Power a fair bit when he has been free…
          Not sure he has a stable jockey as such.

          *
          Your grade one flat jockeys…there is something in that, possibly…

          Atzeni/Moore/Buick/Detori… Group 1 courses…

          2015/16/17 …. 68/326,159 places, ALL runners, 21% sr , -7 SP, AE 0.95…

          Not a bad basis… an extra +90 points if you took ‘opening show odds’ 10 mins before the off or so, quite a bit more in morning no doubt. They are +11 SP or so in 2017.

          Something to work with there but think you would need a more nuanced approach in time… backing all may be challenging at times, esp with that AE figure.

          Josh

          Josh 27/10/17 11:37 AM Reply


          • Josh thanks for your response and very interesting it is for me on the flat stated recording Moore and Buick and i do feel Atzeni will take over the mantle from Dettori in time.
            National Hunt is a test for i am not computer lit and i will record them with pen and paper.
            Also will not include odds on in the results although can never say never because of non runners,in your stats i take it odds on was included?also will only record results in England,Scotland,Wales not ireland to many short ones with moore and obrien.
            Cooper Ryanair O’Leary i believe had first call on him till he was sacked during last season along with Willie Mullins when he moved his horses to Elliott now there is a man who will have an argument with himself whilst shaving haha,you may be right about Potts and Cooper but thats’s bye the bye.
            cheers
            colin

            colin leafe 27/10/17 12:19 PM Reply


  • 3.00 Doncaster Amplication ran ok on debut at Yarmouth
    but was a well beaten 3rd in the end.
    He had breeze up experience so I am not sure if he will come on for that run as much as some people expect.
    The Price is very much down to the booking of Ryan Moore rather than the form.

    His trainer ED Dunlop has only a 5% record at the track since 2013(4 from 78)
    and they have all been with older horses. he is 0-17 with 2 year olds.
    Just from those stats his price is very skinny.

    Born 22nd April he is a late foal so that may also be a question mark

    The 2nd fav Epic Fantasy runs for Charlie hills and while he ran on well last time at Newbury
    he was still beaten 8.5 lengths even though he finished 3rd
    Charlie record with 2 year olds since 2013 is 4-43 which doesn’t set the pulses racing at 9%
    born24/4/17 another late foal so again very beatable.

    Consultant is the one I like at the prices slowly away on debut at Salisbury on heavy Ground
    he ran on well to nab 4th close home despite running very green.
    Opened 15/2 and backed down to 5/1 at the off suggests he has shown a bit at home
    but what really made me sit up is Andrew Baldings record with Juveniles
    at Doncaster since 2013 5wins from just 13 runners at 38%
    which suggests he brings horses here with real chances
    foaled March 11th so has a 6 week maturity advantage over the to two in the market
    not massive but another plus
    at 13/2 he looks the value

    The other one I like in the race is Marco Botti’s Elusif who was 4th in a Ascot maiden
    Marco is 6-28 with Juveniles at Doncaster at 21% so he come here with live horses

    I have done 2 e/w doubles CONSULTANT and DLV
    and ELUSIF and DLV

    peter 27/10/17 10:46 AM Reply


  • Executive Force 4.00 Newbury is 6s bet 365….maybe the headgear will make it click.
    It’s certainly got the talent.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 27/10/17 11:28 AM Reply


  • I’m all over Petite Power today and have advised him to my members

    Aeolus & Naggers are my two in the 6f sprint at Doncaster

    I’ve played the Nicholls, Henderson and Elliott horses in the Cond Jocks Hcp Hurdle

    Rightdownthemiddle 16/1 (????) and Cottersrock 33/1 are my bets in the HCp hurdle

    Baron Bolt to be placed is a max bet for me today

    GL everyone

    Rick 27/10/17 12:41 PM Reply


  • Boom – that you Ian and Josh; Josh and Ian ; Trifecta up £2325.20.

    I permed the winner from SP2A Elite who got the winner and 2 of yours Josh and also Indian Castle who you and Ian both gave mentions to and had a few bets, one landed, a shame there was not a bet for the first 4; I’d have cleaned that up!

    Great tipping Gents; keep up the great work.

    Colin 27/10/17 4:47 PM Reply


    • bugger me, well done Colin… good betting there! Yep between us covered front end there! I didn’t give enough consideration to the winner there so a few things to ponder.. I suppose he had a prominent running style, unexposed but hardy, hard race fit, one of best jockeys on.. can see why Ian went for him. I’ve picked the wrong single odds one in that! Decent enough race. Enjoy the win! Nice start to the weekend

      Josh 27/10/17 4:53 PM Reply


  • Pondered them a few times when i get Ian’s stuff and then yours or vice versa and they name same 5-6 horses out of 20 + field. Had a few near misses but threw a tenner at it and more i think about it, if your two different tipping / system styles come up with 4 or 5 the same it is more likely to come up than a silly Lucky 63 or Goliath so nothing ventured nothing gained.

    Colin 27/10/17 5:02 PM Reply


    • Yea there is plenty of logic there.. we approach races in quite a different way, Ian much more old school form/weights/ratings punter than I am. Our approaches both seem to work and suit us etc- so yea, if we home in on same/similar list, it may well be more of a positive!! I think we are 3/3 or 4/4 when I mention a ‘notes’ horse in members that they have tipped.. and I also make sure I don’t read his email until I have homed in on all my thoughts etc- so you can be safe that his thoughts haven’t influenced me etc- which again may or may not add more confidence!

      Josh 27/10/17 5:23 PM Reply


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