Members Daily Post: 26/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Ludlow

4.05 – Shows Over (all hncps + hncp chase) ES 7/1 S3 3rd 7/1 

4.35 –

Lord Fendale (all hncps) ES G1 40/1 S1 S3  UP

Banditry (hncp hurdle + m1) 14,30 H1 I1 9/4  2nd 

 

Southwell

3.45 – Mariners Moon (hncp hurdle + m1) ES+ 16/1 S2 S3a  UP 8/1 

4.15 – Early Retirement (hncp hurdle + m1, m1) ES+  H3 G3 7/2 S3a   WON 7/2>9/2 

 

Carlisle 

2.50 –

Never Up (hncp chase + m1, m1) ES H3 I3 G3 9/2  S3 S4 (monitoring) WON 9/2>5/1 

Dartford Warbler (hncp chase + m1) ES 9/1 S3 UP

3.55 – Barrys Jack (hncp hurdle) H1 G1  Evens  WON Evens>4/7 

4.25 –

Carrigdhoun (all hncps + hncp chase) ES 10/1 S2 S3  UP

Itstimeforapint (m2) I3 G1 16/1 S1 S2  UP 33/1 

4.55 – Greenworld Solution (m1) H3 5/1  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/110, +126.5)

NOTES

None today. Read into that what you will! 🙂

Other thoughts…

It feels like ‘one of those days’ where in truth I won’t fall of my seat if most of those above are still running this time tomorrow. But, that is the point of systems/strategies, to take away such subjective anguish, and I do make the odd howler when I try and over-think. But, there isn’t anything I want to elevate to ‘Notes’ today. In the context of price, many of those have form, stamina, class, fitness, ground questions (or a combination of the lot!) This is when 4/5 of those above now dot up! On a strategies front there are a couple that look intriguing to me, without necessarily expecting much…

Lord Fendale.. well he is worth EW support at those lofty odds… he had some ok Irish form, before returning after 1 year+ LTO for new connections. I remember a Vaughan handicap hurdle qualifier here, for the stats, last November.. (I have just checked, my memory isn’t that good!…) – Presenting Berkley – who very nearly won at 40/1, a close second. My word it was exciting.. he got collared right on the line, I can still picture it now. Anguish. But good fun. That was in an amateur riders handicap hurdle, with an inexperienced 7lb claimer on. So, Vaughan booking X jockeys etc, is no indication as to whether they are here to run well, or potter around for another day. I expect he may be tailed off, I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well. He is ES, plus S1, so you have to have something on i think! Members who have been here a while may remember the likes of Hartforth (50/1 SP, 150/1 BFSP), M Hammonds winner at Wetherby (50s again I think, 80s BFSP) and a few more to boot..every now and then they drop in, and you should never ignore a horse/not bet (esp strategies!) simply because ‘he is 40s, he has no chance’- we have all thought that before, and avoided bets simply on that basis. With this members club I have long learned that is an unwise reason for not backing one. Gerry will attest to that! (it took me a little while) So, we shall see. I really don’t expect much, but you never know.

Mariners Moon… well. If I am honest I have no idea why he should improve… he looks a poor horse and he is upped in class here, having not done much in weak C5 hurdles. No distance move etc, C5>4 is ‘doing something different’ but that isn’t a positive on this occasion. If you have a light framed horse, they can do better in higher classes with less weight on their back, rather than having bigger weights in a class above. So, logic there. This one isn’t carrying much less actual weight on his back. BUT… that 43 days is intriguing.. the only thing going through my head is whether he has had a wind op or something- did they find a problem they have now fixed. I can’t think Henderson wants young Bowen using up too much of his claim on other peoples horse’s either- those that could win – not sure if that is the right logic or not really! But it crossed my mind. Anyway, the market will guide no doubt. This is only the 5th start for the yard and he may race prominently.

We shall see how they all go! GL with any bets.

That’s it for content relating to today’s runners and riders. NTD continues to hit the woodwork but not winning, Arthurs Secret a tad agonising yesterday… his runners have become hard to predict win wise,at the time of year when they are meant to be predictable! He was due a sub standard Autumn though, the betting gods reminding us that it isn’t always easy.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

3.00 Lud – Robinshill (m1, 22/1</4)

2.40 South – Twist On Ginge (m1, 22/1</3/4/6)

3.10 South- The Hollow Ginge (m1 22/1</)

4.45 South- Ravensdale (m1 22/1<)

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.55 – Vado Forte

 

Trainer Watch: A Ralph+J Barber

(starting points…)

1.55 Lud – Comber Mill

3.10 South- Ballyknock Cloud (NF booked,entered Cheltenham 28th also…)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

BIG MEETING NOTES: Cheltenham Showcase Meeting

READ HERE>>> (online PDF)

Repeated below…

 

Big Meeting Notes: Cheltenham Showcase 2017

All stats cover the previous three meetings, 2014/15/16

*

Trainers

Paul Nicholls

  • All runners: 19 bets / 7 wins / 10 places/ +18 BFSP
  • 5 year olds: 9 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / +12
  • Exclude ‘hurdles’ (graded)+ hncp chases: 7/13,9p, +25
  • 0 runs at track previously: 5/6,5p, +13
  • 0-1 runs at track previously: 7/15,9p, +20

 

Charlie Longsdon

  • All runners: 10 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / +15
  • 21 1/2 furlongs or further: 3/7,4p, +19

 

Neil Mulholland

  • All runners: 9 bets / 3 winners / 4 places / +8
  • Chases: 3/8,4p, +9

***

General Pointers

  • All runners sent off bigger than 16/1 SP: 0/122,10p
  • Those with no career run under rules: 0/20,1p

 

*

Micros ‘Systems’

 

Micro 1

  • 5 year olds
  • 20/1 or shorter SP
  • 1-5 runs in National Hunt Race Type+ Handicap Race Type

47 bets / 14 wins / 22 places / +58 BFSP

  • Within that…GB Breds: 0/9,1p – something to keep an eye on. Mark up the rest!
  • Eg, if running in a novice hurdle, they would have had 1-5 runs in novice hurdles, or say handicap hurdles, then 1-5 runs in handicap hurdles only.

 

Micro 2

  • Horse WON Last Time Out
  • 0-1 wins in National Hunt Race Type+ Handicap Race Type
  • 10/1 or shorter SP

53 bets / 19 wins / 28 places / 35% sr / +59 BFSP

  • Within that, those 8lb or higher versus last race, inc those with no rating LTO…
    • 21 bets / 9 wins / 14 places / 43% sr / +47 BFSP

 

Micro 3

  • Horse WON Last Time Out
  • 0-1 win in National Hunt Race Type+ Handicap Race Type
  • Handicap Chase + Handicap Hurdle
  • 10/1 or shorter SP

21 bets / 8 wins / 11 places / +51 BFSP

Clearly 2+3 will be ‘double qualifiers’ but helps bring more focus, esp on the handicaps which in general is where I focus.

*

I’ll add them into my HRB account, if I can find room, and flag any ‘qualifiers’, and flat the trainer notes/runners… as always these are starting points really for further investigation. We shall see how they get on but plenty of logic underpinning that lot and some interesting/exciting figures, that have all been solid at the previous three meetings. Time will tell if they all point to any winners/profits over the two days.

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Stuck up Rebel Ace on the other tips page…the other horse i will be having a bet on Shinghari in the 435 Ludlow. Alex Dun does pretty well with buying from Ireland and winning with them in average enough contests in Eng. He has been well fancied a few times and let the fav backers down….It’s obvious to see why he’s been fancied with his flat handicap runs (Especially Killarney). Personally, as he stays 2ms easily on the flat, i think he might be suited to running over further over hurdles…he could well need the extra trip as he’s seemed very one paced recently. even with that, i can;t let him run off 110 in a fairly average handicap hurdle….Banditry which hits one of Josh’s systems is the obvious one to beat, and to be honest, his flat form is probably better than my picks, but i get a nice weight adv, and i think he’s worth a small play. Either way, i will be interested to see if he looks in need of a step up in trip for his future runs….14/1 is worth a go iMO

    Jack 25/10/17 7:58 PM Reply


  • A fiver a pint ffs. Poser was obviously tuned into my desperate attempt to cross the road after finding a £1.80 pint at lunch time and drifted out but crossed the line with no regard of the traffic behind!!

    Having been rudely interrupted from a pleasant late afternoon snooze by a screaming banshee swearing blind I was a piss artist I collared the cat and it definitely agrees that Sue’s ‘Never Up’ in the 2.50 was not a reflection on me but a good eye for a winner.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 25/10/17 10:20 PM Reply


    • aagh, should have looked for quals before putting pen to paper. I’ll av another chat with the cat.

      Thankfully the banshees gone to bed with a book muttering something about only pleasures or some such but not before alluding to a now dated term of ‘Polished Rock’. “It runs in the 4.35 ” say’s I. “any improvement from 6.30 will be an improvement for you in that state” she says

      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 25/10/17 11:27 PM Reply


      • Well I f*kd that up. It should have been any movement from 6.30 doh

        titus_a_duxass 25/10/17 11:33 PM Reply


        • I’ve often been found in such condition, to which i always defended my condition by saying, ”someone slipped me a Micky Finn”…although i did lose it somewhat once when i started flicking roast potatoes and sprouts at the G/kids across the table. I was ushered to bed to leave my sil to convince the gathering that we were drinking in ‘Creeleys’ a notorious Irish bar where auld crimps sent young lads to sea.
          Those were the days Titus. roflmao.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 26/10/17 11:32 AM Reply


  • Following on from Ben Aitken piece on front runners and Josh’s comments last week about Danny Cook and Sue Smith I have had a look at the combination to produce the following

    Chase Races only
    Class 3 and 4
    12 runners or less
    Trainer 1 to 4 runners at track that day
    Running at Carlisle, Catterick, Market Rasen, Newcastle, Southwell and Wetherby

    29 winners from 68 rides (42.65%) +64.08 points

    I do not have Proform so had to manually trawl through the results to look at running style and those that made all or led for most of the race acconted for 16 winners from 23 rides.

    David Peat 26/10/17 6:39 AM Reply


    • Top stuff Dave…

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 26/10/17 11:34 AM Reply


    • I will follow with interest David, thanks for your efforts.

      martin colwell 26/10/17 1:07 PM Reply


    • Had a 5/1 winner in Never Up today

      David Peat 26/10/17 4:06 PM Reply


  • A Race Trace qualifier
    LUDLOW
    1.55 3-5 +£1.91 Evan Williams 1-1-5-1-❖-2 ……………St John’S
    12/1 and up against a Dan Skelton hotpot but I’ve backed it each way.

    Andy N 26/10/17 8:38 AM Reply


  • I would say as regards Nicky Henderson and jockeys its a longterm program,the likes of Nigel Tinkler and J McGrath they have been close to Henderson for years.I am sure he would want a well rounded jockey,not just getting armchair rides day in day out,riding as many tracks as possible,will far outweigh few pounds claim lost

    gearoid180468 26/10/17 8:53 AM Reply


    • Hendo had 3 runners yesterday and they all ran like they had Boris Johnson as the jockey. Perhaps his horses need a couple more weeks? We shall see if he has anything at Cheltenham?

      martin colwell 26/10/17 10:15 AM Reply


      • best comment of the dasy so far …………… LOL

        kevin 26/10/17 10:39 AM Reply


      • ha ha ha!

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 26/10/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • Josh, with reference to your never ignoring a 40/1 qualifier simply because of the price, a good opus dei punishment tale from one of my days at Goodwood. For various reasons I was invited to judge the best turned out in an amateur jocks race that opened the card.

    I was with my cousin and her husband, both long term cattle and sheep judges and we settled upon a flashy chestnut, beautifully plaited and in great nick. After this had been announced we toddled off to the bookies thinking we should have a tenner on it just in case. It was 50/1, at which point we returned our crispies to our wallets and decided it was a race to watch.

    Pillar to post job, never in doubt, cue rending of hair and gnashing of teeth. Still hurts today.
    Hugh

    alpha2 26/10/17 1:19 PM Reply


    • Well Hugh, that sounds painful in truth, no dressing that up! I hope you have trusted your eye ever since! Sometimes the market knows sod all… at least you know you’d have ‘only’ had 10 on (albeit 30 in total) painful, but at least say your usual stake wouldn’t have been 50+ or something! Doubt i’d be over that now haha.

      Josh 26/10/17 3:39 PM Reply


  • A post very off topic, but does anyone have RUK subscription? I keep toying with buying it for laptop rather than sky…but its pricey….anyone know when they bring out offers etc?

    Jack Houston 26/10/17 2:01 PM Reply


    • I have one and would say worth every penny haha… I get mine through freeview, i don’t have sky etc, the online transmission I think, via freeview.. does mean no HD though, something they could improve on! Depends if you will get regular use of it I suppose… no idea as to deals, you can always tweet them, someone usually responds… plenty of added benefits of course.. worth it if you are a regular race goer with the number of free club days, pays for itself that way I suppose. Nov meet in Aintree is free for example, so that’s like 1 months subs!
      Josh

      Josh 26/10/17 2:43 PM Reply


      • Yeah Josh, being based in N.Ire, i wouldnt benefit from the tickets etc…Do they its quite expensive considering all replays are accessible elsewhere….but i would use it daily and the shows seem to be good….should just bite the bullet lol

        Jack Houston 26/10/17 3:19 PM Reply


        • Yep, i would simply then make the judgement on how much live action you’ll be able to watch. Could view it is £5 every weekend, which may not be too bad! Some good shows, Luck on Sunday a decent addition, as is some of other stuff..but the live action is what judgement should be based on really, imo. It is monthly anyway, no long term commitment.

          Josh 26/10/17 4:14 PM Reply


    • Try Firstonetv.net I can watch RUK most of the time for free

      David Peat 26/10/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • Thats the way we like it,Danny taking race by the scruff of the kneck

    gearoid180468 26/10/17 2:56 PM Reply


  • The triple raters just keep doing the business.

    Nick Mazur 26/10/17 2:57 PM Reply


    • Lovely stuff, nice little drift out 1/2-1 point also. Even I couldn’t resist 5s! Just – doubt i’d have played without all those red symbols by his name in truth!

      Josh 26/10/17 2:58 PM Reply


  • Hats off to Dave for bit of old school research

    gearoid180468 26/10/17 3:04 PM Reply


  • Lovely front running performance there from Never Up, so thanks Josh and Ben.

    Lui 26/10/17 3:16 PM Reply


    • That will be the first of many Cook boots home in front over fences.. in fact, specialising in those 4 jocks Ben highlighted and when obvious front runners (geegeez pace maps gold for that, or ATR free ones) will pay handsomely this season. No doubt about that… and any chaser you think Cook may get an easy lead on is worth marking up… I doubt he’d have won that without leading.. getting that breather in at bottom of hill crucial, having slowed it up. In truth I didn’t think 4s overly generous given stamina question in context of ground/time off track.. that is where, when a purple ES, three red ratings points, i trusted the stats with a standard system bet- the stats much better than my subjective head there! Treble rated keeps ticking along, does add confidence, whatever the odds really. (within reason, I still find it hard to back anything under 7/2, whatever boxes it ticks)

      Josh 26/10/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • Another front runner!

    Jack Houston 26/10/17 3:17 PM Reply


    • The soundest best in racing! Esp fences, esp Cook/Smith. There were a few travelling well in behind there, but Cook wasn’t stopping,esp after he slowed then kicked… and then the jumping of everything behind fell apart when trying to close.. the only way to catch cook was for them to go quicker…and really, one of main differences at C4/5 level in chases is ability to jump.

      Josh 26/10/17 3:20 PM Reply


Post A Reply