Members Daily Post: 25/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newmarket 

3.30 – Song Maker (3yo+) 14,30 H3 I3 9/2

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

1.35 – Dawnieriver (hncp chase) I3 6/1  S5 (monitoring, IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

2.10 – Keep Moving (all hncps) 14 ES  6/1  S3 3rd 7/1 

2.45 – Solomn Grundy (Bonus/novice hncps) H3 I3 7/1  UP

3.20 –

Lisdoonvarna Lad (NHF) 16/1  S2  2nd 20/1 (ah,exciting enough!) 

Supakalanistic (NHF) H1 I3 8/1  S5 (monitoring, IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP 

 

 

JUMPS

Sedgefield  

3.10 –

Vancouver (all hncps) I1 G3 9/2  S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) ,  S5 (monitoring, IF 11.00+ BFSP)  WON 9/2>13/2 

Tomkevi (hncp hurdle) H3 4/1  UP

Ink Master (micro going) ES I3 8/1   S3 ,   S5 (monitoring, IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/109, +127.5)

NOTES

Ink MasterUP.. no excuse there, got the easy lead as hoped/anticipated…has ran like a non stayer in truth but wort a go at the prices for me. Maybe best waiting for him to make all in a 17f chase!  Another qualifier won and I didn’t have a penny on, happy to leave at 9/2 but drifted a tad… Mulholland was 1/48 or so last 30 days, 0/25,3p last 14 days…and the horse had questions on paper. I can live with that one, dodge many more losers etc at that end,esp non treble rated ones!! At the prices he does intrigue me the most today… I am lured in because of the pace… I think there is a chance Will Kennedy tries to steal this from the front…well he should try and do that. You’d have made a fair whack this summer backing McCain make all winners…well, we have actually… Danceintothelight 20s, Derrintoher Yank 10s, and maybe a couple of others somewhere no doubt!… This horse made his stable debut LTO and ran an encouraging race.. he was up there for most of the way, possibly a little keen (chance he settles better having had that run/used to the hood) and looked to get a tad out-paced before rallying for third. He kept on through the line, rather than going backwards. He was well stuffed by the two in front but they were progressive and in form. He was 28/1 to also, suggesting not much was expected. He out-ran those odds. He had also been chasing for quite a time before McCain got him and it can take a while readjusting back to hurdles, as well as to new surroundings. McCain will know more about the horse now. He was/is a decent enough chaser on his day. He is also ‘only’ 1/4,2p in handicap hurdles and could be argued, to a point, that he is ‘unexposed’ in this sphere. Or in any case, I don’t want to say he can’t win from this mark, albeit maybe he will need to drop a little. The trip is also a question…he may not stay…but he has only had a couple of runs previously at this distance and it could be what he now wants. There is some stamina in his immediate family…and in any case, like I said it is the pace that intrigued me…IF they can get an easy lead/go their pace then he could get away with it even if not fully ‘staying’. I thought 8s was worth a dart. Clearly if he doesn’t lead that is the main rationale gone! I am quite happy to let the other two stats qualifiers beat me at the prices, I won’t be backing those. The Ellison and Skelton horses probably look most interesting and I may be asking too much to beat them all off..but I can’t help myself if I think a horse will try and make all, and a clear case can be made, of sorts, in the context that he is 8/1. In I go. It could be they are tuning him up for a return to fences, and is one to keep an eye on…he’ll be making all somewhere, one day, no doubt. McCain’s had a more consistent few months than I can ever remember, and we shall see if he can carry that on all year… and join the likes of Phillip Hobbs and Fergal O’Brien who simply never appear to be out of form!!

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Of interest…. Two trainers to track?

As an aside… two trainers for our notebooks, to keep an eye on…

Alastair Ralph… who seems to have crept under the radar and transformed himself as a rules trainer this year. I believe he was/is a Point To Point trainer also, who had some tutelage from Nicholls, and possibly worked for Dr Newland for a time… he has had a few winners in the good Dr’s colours,and got the odd horse from him I think. If you can sweeten up a horse from that yard, then you must know the time of day. His rules runners from 2012-2016 were… 4/47, 16p… in 2017 he is  10/38, 16 places… +32 LSP SP  That is quite an improvement and would suggest something has changed- maybe this is now what he does full time, he has moved facilities, or become a better trainer. Any trainer that can get Bob Ford winning a C2 handicap chase on GOOD! (am sure he was a heavy ground slogger!) deserves plenty of attention… that is another aside actually… he got him from Rebecca Curtis who has had a poor couple of years I think…her runners are very inconsistent these days and I think one of her main owners has pulled out all his horses.. so, look out for any horses from that yard running for someone else- they could improve plenty and form from last season could be irrelevant. The same can be said for any Sandra Hughes horses over the water…she wasn’t getting the best out of her string in the last 8-6 months before she retired.

Jack Barber… grandson of Richard Barber, and he uses his facilities I believe… the same gallops Harry Fry and Anthony Honeyball use…and they can all ready one after a break. Fitness is never an issue…now young Jack was a prolific PtP trainer in the last couple of years, winners galore. He can train. His wife now runs that side of the operation and he just trains the 24 or so Jumpers he has in (always room for more according to his website…google it, worth a read if you are interested in such things…some useful info on training methods there) He sparked my interest with his winner at Plumpton a couple of days back…the horse was returning after a long break, and they made all with him. He dotted up by half the track. So, we know that he can ready one at home. Fitness will not be a problem, if they want them fit. And we know he isn’t averse to ‘make all’ tactics…now, that’s what we like! I get the impression this boy will go places under rules, and his string could be profitable to follow until everyone cottons on. According to his website he also appears to only run horses when he thinks they have a chance, and his main focus for young horses is teaching them to jump…some trainers use maiden/novice hurdles to sharpen up jumping- they will have been schooled, but it also provides a valid excuse for why they get stuffed before going into handicaps 🙂 (running over wrong trip/ground,gaining experience the valid excuses…no problem with the ‘handicapping game’ ,you just have to learn how to play it)… I get the impression that Jack’s youngsters will know their job. Being a young trainer wanting to attract owners would suggest he may just want winners…rather than playing a longer handicapping game. He is 3/7,3p with all runners 2016, 2017.. but this is his first year fully as a rules trainer, so we should be seeing more.

With any luck keeping an eye on those two can point us to a few over-priced winners in the season ahead.

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Re-cap.. yuk… no dressing that day up…I was due a poor day after recent form and most/all of what I have backed yesterday may still be running!! One of those. The notes horse’s performance wasn’t a shock, that’s him I suspect. His head will be right one day and he will get his win. But plenty of logic there and 8s about 16s was the only positive, as was beating the market by quite a bit in the free post ‘tipping’ race – I can live with that winner going un-backed but never nice when your fancies all run shockers. That’s racing though, the majority run like that at those prices. Moving on, swiftly. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD (all Worcester)

2.45 – Scotchtown (m1 22/1</2/4/6) UP

3.20 – Supakalanistic (m2) UP

3.55 – Arthurs Gift (m1 22/1</2) 2nd 9/2>7/2

5.05 – Equus Milar (m1 22/1</2)

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

5.40 W – Davids Phoebe (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

RESULTS  update…

Advised Strategy Links in Key have been UPDATED to end 22nd October.

Summary

For the last two weeks, since Monday 9th Oct…

You can flick through the different links above if you so wish, but combined ALL strategies both Jumps and Flat..

  • All advised strategy qualifiers, backed once every strategy they hit… 97 bets / 14 wins / 35 wins|places / +36 / +50 BFSP or so I think. Approx. 
  • All advised strategy qualifiers backed just once, regardless of how many they hit… 74 bets / 11 wins / +16.25 

 

NOTES horses, Section 2…. 22 bets / 5 wins / +37 early|bog (-3 or so for ‘Bet of Day’)

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The advised strategies have been ticking along fine, and if they averaged +8 points every week, just backing once, that would be fun.. +416 points over a year, not too bad!

The one area of concern, is probably the Flat Elite Squad… -15 for the two week period, a couple of close calls… it could be they are levelling off after a blistering start… they are still around a 10% ROI, and if that was steady/constant, then I wouldn’t complain with that. Clearly for the flat, some of the ‘ratings based’ strategies have been doing very well.

Moving onto the Jumps… I have added another strategy into the monitoring pile and it would be dream land IF that could repeat Strategy 1, we shall see. The Elite Squad…that levelling off on the Flat has made me a tad restless… it could be that the Elite Squad Plus may be the place to focus in time, but Strategy 3 over Jumps has been doing fine. (+42 points) The jumps stats, for whatever reason, have always found more bigger priced winners. Maybe that is the nature of jumps racing, who knows. Onto tomorrow.

It has been a busy period with the cross over of the seasons and soon all focus will be on the jumps action.

As always, any questions, fire away, or email me.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    sticking my head over the parapet with one to add

    W 1.35 Dawnieriver (HcCh)

    and….as the number of contributary tips on these pages have increased dramatically over the last couple of weeks or so I’m taking a dive into the moat with a selection in the 2.00 at Sedge. Mick The Poser, nothing to do with name but had a tickle on this when Jennie took it all the way to Hamilton for a run on the flat after it’s first run over hurdles. It did ok over hurdles and showed it had a bit of heart, running on for second after looking well beaten. Travelling about 150 mile so I’ll be going on the nose but a pint e/w @ 8’s looks a decent bet.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 24/10/17 6:16 PM Reply


    • Ah bugger! Cheers, as always.
      Josh
      p.s how much are your pints?? 🙂

      Josh 24/10/17 6:20 PM Reply


      • I was just thinking I ought to qualify the stake. I’m snuggled in the pennines and have palpitations if I don’t get at least 2 n alf quid change out of a fiver haha And that’s proper beer, not that fizzy shite.

        titus_a_duxass 24/10/17 6:27 PM Reply


        • Staying off topic just for a gripe really. My local sells mostly beers from micro’s along the Calder Valley where there is a vast choice. I kid you not. Who’d have thought you’d find good beer brewed in Yorkshire. Anyway one of my staples is £2.40 a pint and blows your socks off for £15. Was in Leeds centre recently (used to be good for a few ales but crap now) and some scrote in a bar not far from the train station tried to charge me £4.05 for exact same brew. I told him to put it back in’t tun and got first train to ‘Alifax.

          titus_a_duxass 24/10/17 6:50 PM Reply


          • Haha. Brilliant. That’s the best non racing comment I think I’ve read on these pages. I’m still laughing. Craft ale is getting pricy,esp here in Liverpool. Not too many about under £3. More a ‘brand’ these days. Still many a good place hidden away mind.

            Josh 24/10/17 7:05 PM Reply


    • Good effort from Mick at 14/1. You are talking nigh on a fiver a pint in the South East, so you need to have the money on!

      martin colwell 25/10/17 4:33 PM Reply


  • Josh , just heard a rumour in the pub that the Liverpool manager has resigned , and is taking his family back to Germany ….

    Im sure he said ” The KLOPPS go back this weekend ”

    Keep Smiling 🙂

    joners 24/10/17 7:37 PM Reply


    • haha, very good. 🙂 I will, don’t worry. I’m rarely not!

      Josh 24/10/17 7:54 PM Reply


    • They are going back on horseback, Klippety Klopp.

      martin colwell 24/10/17 8:55 PM Reply


  • The second of my horses to follow from FOB stable “Bells N Banjos” starts of his campaign at Cheltenham on Saturday,He did run quite well at Cheltenham Festival but this will be his first time to take on the big boys in earnest,Perfect Candidate is also entered but Paddy has opted for the young pretender,the thing i like about this lad is that he is a good old fashioned no frills type,keeps on resolutely.Saturday will tell us if he is up to playing senior hurling

    gearoid180468 24/10/17 9:10 PM Reply


    • Gearoid , Im told his bumper horse tomorrow 4.55 Sedg has speed to burn ? ,i took the 5/2 B365 opened with but that went quickly …

      I will watch yours with interest Saturday , Good Luck

      joners 24/10/17 9:54 PM Reply


      • It was tipped by Mark Howard this afternoon, hence the price pressure
        http://www.mhpublications.co.uk/

        chrisrees 24/10/17 10:35 PM Reply


      • The bookies are taken no chances this year with his NHF runners this year Joners,the race isn’t very strong on trainers that target theses types of races so the price might look good at 5pm,I see Dueling Banjos ran well in a decent race at Exeter(beaten by BNB Feb),long time ago but small boost to his form

        gearoid180468 24/10/17 10:42 PM Reply


  • Josh just a quick mention that i’m not getting any emails could be that iv’e changed my email address

    martin whittle 25/10/17 12:41 AM Reply


    • on my general list? I don’t send out emails re members club… you can head to this old page, needs updating,and join the general mailing list if you wish etc… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/flat2017

      Josh 25/10/17 7:22 AM Reply


  • Today’s free post may be worth a read… plucked out a couple of pace angles which caught my eye, both around 8/1… I am convinced they will both lead their races…we shall see if they are good enough to stay there..should have some fun anyway,until 1 from home at Worcester, and 2f out at Newmarket… do with that as you please, a couple of nice winners from recent ‘pace’ musing…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/10/24/free-daily-post-251017-upd1/

    Nigel Twiston-Davies.. well he has had a quieter time of things than in recent years.. I did read one theory in the Daily Punt blog I think, from Dave Massey (top judge) that many other yards may have their strings further forward than usual…due to a wetter late summer > getting more grass work in. His place SR around 50% I think, maybe just a higher level of ‘fitness’ competition this year.. albeit that Exeter Chase didn’t look like many had got them fit at home!! – anyway… I think today indicates where he is at. There are only 6 days left of twister season anyway, but you can make a solid case for most of his in the test zone today… I think..

    Arthurs Gift looks most interesting…mainly as I know he is fit, he ran well LTO, makes handicap hurdle debut and steps up in trip..which looked needed the last day. He also runs in NTDs own colours…and he does like to sell them if he can – a win would help in that regard! He probably tails in last now, the kiss of death… ScotchTown is interesting if 6/1 or shorter SP… as discussed with Paul I think a couple weeks back… all of his chase debutants only seem to win if well fancied…as was the case with his Huntingdon winner.

    Anyway, just some thoughts. Do with those as you please.

    Josh 25/10/17 9:30 AM Reply


    • Less said about those two pace bets the better! Awful.

      Josh 25/10/17 3:41 PM Reply


  • just to say thanks for all the hard work that you are putting in every day josh .
    profits are still there and holding steady , strike rate has come down now to 17% for me from 118 bets but i expected that over time and i think it will still drop a little more , but for me it is getting consistent profits over time .

    steve 25/10/17 9:48 AM Reply


    • cheers Steve, thankfully I am lucky that most of the time it doesn’t feel like hard work- but there is always plenty to do/ponder/improve on…

      Yep, the SR not so important, all about ROI/profits… and given in general we have no odds caps, in general should be playing say 6/1+, average backing odds prob few points bigger maybe.. then 12-17% win SR should only ever ensure long term profit.

      Strat #1 long term 16% I think, strat #2 10% and #3.. well, if like the flat that may be 15-18% long term, would like if ES+ was steady around 20%…of course historical research never repeats itself exactly- but the content continues to find nice/over priced winners, that is always the foundation. Strategy 4 may end up being the highest SR, 25-30%, and if so then happy days… that is the one angle where playing at the shorter end of market may turn out to be justified..well it is starting to look that way.. when gets to 50 bets, picture may be clearer.

      I can’t think I will keep up the ‘notes’ around 20% either, would be a bit mad given average odds… and again that may lower to 15% or so, over time.

      Again, slow, steady, small stakes, proper bank, build up over time. I mean even if the advised strategies, just backing any quals once, averaged +5 points a week… that sounds rubbish on a weekly, but over a year that is quite a nice return. Jumps strategies are on +500 for the year, but that is backing all/multiple times. So, there is plenty of profit hidden away, just about trying to eek out as much as possible, in a way that suits your betting/comfortable etc. But patience often key. We haven’t had a testing horror show of a losing run yet, collectively across the portfolio combined.

      Josh

      Josh 25/10/17 9:58 AM Reply


      • yes 5 pts a week for me will do nicely , just after consistency over time .
        in the 23 days that i’ve been betting i’m at an average of 2.29 pts a day at present = 52.87 overall .
        had a whirlwind start though bringing in 43.2 pts for the first 7 days = 6.17 pts a day .
        so for the next 16 days i’ve made 9.67 pts = 0.60 pts a day which over a week would mean 4.2 so not far off 5pts a week .
        250 pts a year i wouldn’t sniff at .

        steve 25/10/17 1:02 PM Reply


        • Yep, that would be a nice average… of course given the approach it tends to come in spikes, highs are very high, the lows we try and get through! In an ideal world any annual profit would be spread out evenly over weeks and months- it would be better for the heart rate that way! But it rarely is.. I am just going through the ‘tips’ in the free posts… my approach generally hits a massive spike or two… +90 points Jan 2016, +75 points March 2017…just getting onto April- but no doubt since then they may have paid for themselves! in part that will always be the way.. but.. with the portfolio of different approaches, including my own subjective interpretation in the notes- with any luck the lows are never that low…when one or two strategies have their shocker, others will keep things ticking over! +50 odd points isn’t to be sniffed at in a few weeks, and after 118 bets! Not a bad ROI, to date.
          Josh

          Josh 25/10/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • Nicky Henderson has runners at Worcester today. I believe they like Malachite, 3.20, and is 9/1 on the exchanges at present. Follow The Bear, 3.55, is coming along slowly but has, some maturing to do. He can still win but is not that fancied. In the lucky last, 5.40, they rate Melangerie but he is a short price.

    martin colwell 25/10/17 10:29 AM Reply


  • Excellent work with identifying the Ralph and Barber potential, Josh. Their names were in my head but you’ve provided some useful background. Handy.
    http://www.alastairralphracing.co.uk/home.aspx
    http://jackbarberracing.co.uk/

    chrisrees 25/10/17 10:30 AM Reply


  • I think with the ES and ES+,the average strike rate should be the same overall,there will be those that over perform like Lucinda Russel last season,and some duds that will not perform for one reason or another,virus,owners moving horses etc,trainer Charlie Mann and Henry Daly are on the up again after years in the wilderness whereas Pipe seems to be heading in the other direction,I think in McCains case he was a good trainer before the arrival of The Rooney horses and now has re-organised and moved on,getting the best out of what is at his disposal,the good thing about the rolling 3 years stats is you can spot the trends maybe ahead of the general public,and with your eagle eyes find the next Fergal O Brien

    gearoid180468 25/10/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • Gutting about Fayonagh…heading down to Elliots on Tuesday was looking forward to seeing her…and then also seeing her at Down Royal on the Friday…..sad sad times looked a wonder mare in the making….Layed her in the bumper, but what a performance it was.

    Jack Houston 25/10/17 11:52 AM Reply


    • I was just out with the dogs and was listening to a podcast where Jamie Codd was talking about Fayonagh!!!

      martin colwell 25/10/17 12:55 PM Reply


      • Got it downloaded for my drive home today martin!

        Jack Houston 25/10/17 1:00 PM Reply


        • Yep awful news… that’s four or so potential stars so far lost at home on the gallops. Horrid game at times. Many hurt themselves when turned out in paddocks, think of poor Kauto. Also one of the main reasons why we should always enjoy these animals in the here and now, week to week, race to race, and savour every moment we get to watch them – and not think too far ahead! You never know what is around the corner. Too many can lose sight of the day to day in this game, and fatalities like that somewhat hammer it home. Hopefully no more such news with any others as the season progresses. You get the impression she was going to be special.

          Josh 25/10/17 1:24 PM Reply


  • well lots of horses trainer jockeys under special conditions loaded up in the tracker. hope it all pay off.
    horses on my tracker today

    1:15 Newmarket. HIGH SEAS. this is short on price so best watch

    2:10 worecester WITNESS IN COURT . this one has already been mentioned in the comments today on the free post by nick.

    3.10 Sedgefield APTERIX. May need a more cut in the ground/

    4.20 Sedgefield RAVENSHILL ROAD. odds on this one. so one to watch but looks a nice prospect.

    warren bottomley 25/10/17 12:58 PM Reply


    • 2 uplaced, a second, and an odds on winner. not much to write home about.
      but I’m still learning.
      as the tracker fills with horses,trainers,jockeys I’m hopeful a couple of nice winners aint far away.
      until then thankfully josh is keeping me going thanks today for Vancouver.

      warren bottomley 25/10/17 6:19 PM Reply


  • hard lines titus nearly made it

    william fieseler 25/10/17 2:07 PM Reply


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