Free Daily Post: 25/10/17 (complete)

PACE WINS THE RACE?? 

1.35 Worcester... Alberobello…. UP-well, annoying when they don’t get an easy lead! £5 I will never see again… Edmunds horse change tactics having been held up to date,and he did not appreciate being pestered, looked to go too hard much like the last day, and actually didn’t jump with much fluency. Still think 8s a bit big on paper, but winner has done it well with a bit to spare, hands and heels..unexposed chaser, step up in trip.. I have an ‘Aunty Ann’ as well, not a penny on! 🙂 i’ve had a nibble at 8/1 here as there is a chance he makes all. Well, I am convinced he will get an easy lead, and after that,who knows! The last day he was returning after nearly 3 months off and every chance he comes on for it. He also got in a frenetic pace duel with Lost Legend, both exchanging leads/forcing pace etc etc. In the end those two things combined and he faded out of it, beaten 9 lengths. The winner that day, who is fav here, had the race set up for him really. Alberobello will be fitter, and should get an easier time on the front. That combined with the 8lb swing at the weights may see them much closer together. He is a consistent horse also, 2/12,6p in handicap chases, decent enough. And his fairly new trainer does know the time of day, a few winners under rules already. Interesting. 8s looks too big to my ‘make all’ eyes.

3.30 Newmarket... Hidden Steps.UP.. hmm, well two duds today, that one didn’t do much either- couldn’t lead, not that it mattered given how it finished up an interesting runner at 9/1… mainly as she made all the last day and she is drawn right up against the rail here. The rail has been a golden highway at this track at recent meetings…to address that they have moved it in 4 yards today. So, maybe that is now eradicated…but in any case, she has draw/pace advantage. She also hung left quite a bit at Windsor, and having this rail to her left may help considerably. She is lightly raced and this isn’t a deep C2..everything in here needs to step up on previous form, it isn’t packed with hardy C2 winners. She also returned after 100+ days LTO..it suggests they may have tinkered with something, wind maybe, or sorted out whatever problems she had (if she had any).. but she arrives here fit and in form, open to improvement. She should lead up against this rail, and that price looks big. Clearly not a race to go mad in.. lightly raced horses a plenty and something may have more in hand etc. But, i’ll have a go!

 

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TIPS

3m+ handicap chases. None. That race did not go to plan. No excuse there. I wouldn’t have backed that winner above the three selected, one of those. Always things to ponder and take away, but wouldn’t have made a difference to how I played that race. I can live with the result. I can’t quite believe how poorly all three ran – but then again all three were making returns after breaks and in that scenario nothing ever shocks. They were all fairly well backed within reason. I move on, swiftly. A day to forget.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

J Fanshawe Kempton

8.20 – Gothic Empire (any odds)

H Fry Mares (any odds, 10/1< best)

5.40 Worc- Tangley

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • Well I’ve been up since 3AM given the jet-lag and given nothing jumps at me nothing from me tomorrow other than the fact that I have thrown £5 e/w on Witness in Court in the 14:10 at Worcester.

    Nick Mazur 24/10/17 7:03 PM Reply


    • Oh yet to look at card properly..didn’t spot he was running but yet to check tracker…caught my eye LTO. Interesting if no other pace in race. Well handicapped he went well for a long way LTO. Interesting. Not getting any younger mind. GL

      Josh 24/10/17 7:07 PM Reply


      • I think he is better tracking the pace and that’s what I am hoping Hutch will do given there is a lot of pace which is another reason to take on the fav who won’t get an easy lead. Can’t really tip him given lack of real form but he is so well treated considering he was only 8 lengths behind San Benedeto in February off 20lbs higher had to throw something. Plus McCain has a decent record at track in handicap chases.

        Nick Mazur 24/10/17 7:13 PM Reply


      • Bit intrigued by McCains jockey bookings today.

        He has 2 excellent jocks in up and coming Will Kennedy and very under-rated (imho) Wayne Hutchinson. My view of WH has always been he hung around Alan King’s as No 2 for 2 seasons too long waiting for Choc Thornton to retire (thought Choc went on 2 years too long) then had misfortune to get injured just as Choc did, and so missed great opportunity. Back to point!!!

        Kennedy goes to Sedgefield, surely not to ride Inniscastle Lad (ex Flat jumped poorly lto) but might point to high hopes for INK MASTER in 3.10. That leaves “Hutch” to ride the very well handicapped Witness In Court who has been ridden by Kennedy on 6 of last 7 runs, although “Hutch” has ridden plenty of times before Kennedy emerged as great prospect.

        Interesting!

        Ian SP2A 25/10/17 8:05 AM Reply


        • There is no worst culprit than me at overthinking jockey bookings and I have discussed the subject with Josh several times but they’ve both seemed to have a similar level of success on the horse so didn’t see it as a negative.

          Nick Mazur 25/10/17 8:31 AM Reply


          • yep, in general jockey bookings are not worth over-thinking, if you like the price etc. King increasingly has a lot of horses with retained riders I suppose so good to see Hutch getting out and about- rode Venetia’s winner at Carlisle earlier in the week. He is decent, and McCain/Hutch are 4/20,10p in handicap chases the last 2 years… and he is 1/7,2p on the horse over fences.

            Kennedy being at Sedge is interesting..I have put Ink Master up in my members notes, also an Elite Squad qualifier, and 8s was worth a dart..on off chance he tries to make all…not sure well enough handicapped,and has stamina to prove- but an unknown really- and dictating own pace on that front always helps. So, I probably wouldn’t read much into that – certainly if you like the prices no reason to be put off..

            did strike gold with my Cook musings last week… wondering why he wasn’t at carlisle for I Just Know… was at Uttox where he rode 20/1>12/1 winner – young horse- I thought he may be there for couple of handicappers! But, it is a valid thing to ponder, time to time.

            Josh

            Josh 25/10/17 8:42 AM Reply


        • Ian.. Will Kennedy isn’t up and coming haha – you may be thinking of young Jack Kennedy… I am sure Will is in his mid 30s and he had his first ride under rules in 1998!!
          Josh

          Josh 25/10/17 8:53 AM Reply


          • correct – slapped wrist – I never was any good at Kennedy family trees!

            He (Will) does however seem to be riding better than ever at moment, maybe just found his niche and exploiting running style of horses who are fit and well schooled.

            Ian SP2A 25/10/17 8:58 AM Reply


            • oh without doubt, had a cracking couple of years and riding better than ever! I suppose the Rooney’s removing all their horses from McCains/Maguire retiring etc, was best thing that happened to him personally… I assume he is McCains stable jockey- never sure if officially given title, but I think he is in effect…he has had 500 rides for him now. Clearly very good on the day, and we saw at Carlisle how he can get an inexperienced chaser to jump. Top class pro, certainly never a negative when he is on. Like many jockeys, form can be about timing/opportunities/change in fortunes for regular trainers etc.

              Josh 25/10/17 9:03 AM Reply


  • Frankie is riding for Gosden at Newmarket on Wednesday. Burlington is his final ride in the 2.55 and you can get 30/1+ on the exchanges.

    martin colwell 24/10/17 8:58 PM Reply


    • Given their record at the track will also back Timpani. I like the fact that Frankie rides both for the first time since I think it shows a sign of intent.

      Nick Mazur 25/10/17 10:51 AM Reply


      • And the well just keeps on giving!!!

        Nick Mazur 25/10/17 1:50 PM Reply


        • Indeed it does! Well that was fun. Good spot, again.

          Josh 25/10/17 1:51 PM Reply


          • Half the credit goes to Martin there. Their first one actually drifted from 9/4 to 7/2 and won as well.

            Nick Mazur 25/10/17 2:01 PM Reply


            • Two up and one to go for a stonking treble. I also have the doubles and so happy anyway.

              martin colwell 25/10/17 2:12 PM Reply


              • Bookies proper running scared LOL. Always fun to watch!

                Nick Mazur 25/10/17 2:35 PM Reply


    • Excellent spot thank you Martin, am on the treble with you. Good Luck!

      Colin 25/10/17 2:36 PM Reply


  • A flood of money at Newmarket on ENDLESSLY in the 2.55. At first glance this Nathaniel Colt would be just an also ran if you look at the modest purchase price of £40k but Trainer Martyn Meade also punches well above his weight in this type of race with an impressive strike rate. A decent 25/1 late yesterday has now retracted to 10/1 so value may have gone but will be interesting to see if it is justified in a race worth watching closely for some good form pointers for next Spring.

    In the 2.20 I will have a very small each way (£1 or so) on what looks like the Hannon second string LEXINGTON GRACE with the chance to put experience to good use and almost all Bookies enhancing to 4th place at around 9/1 looks solid value.

    Ian SP2A 25/10/17 7:21 AM Reply


    • Lovely win there for Lexington Grace and got on at 9/1 too, thanks Ian

      Colin 25/10/17 2:37 PM Reply


  • Grade one courses simple method todays course Newmarket

    Ryan Moore six rides all bets for no odds on from 23 Sep 59 bets profit 14.02 points profit no odds on

    William Buick four rides all bets for no odds on from 13 Oct 9 bets profit 11.73 points no odds on

    Results are recorded at Betfair Exchange SP

    Next season will record Andrea Atzeni and Frankie Dettori

    colin leafe 25/10/17 8:02 AM Reply


  • efl cup matches look interesting tonight.
    Everton are 7/1 to win at Chelsea
    and West Ham are 6/1 to win at Spurs

    both Spurs and Chelsea will put out understrength teams with The champions league
    and Premier league being their main focus.
    Admittedly West Ham and Everton may also field below strength teams with vital league games coming up over the weekend
    but another defeat for Bilic against Hammers biggest rivals could be curtains for him
    as I think if they lose to Spurs and Palace losing to two London rivals could see him on his bike

    I have a feeling they will put a decent side tonight and wont be a 6/1 chance in a big London derby cup tie

    Everton although a point bigger are a shambles at the moment and Chelsea reserves should still be to good
    but the cup is a different ball game and 7/1 has some merit

    the best bet maybe to play near the kick off when you know the full elevens in both games

    peter 25/10/17 8:36 AM Reply


    • “but the cup is a different ball game ”

      Literally according to PEP who complained EFL balls are too light!

      He is not kidding, I played in 70’s and 80’s and a bit in 90’s when balls were balls. Played in a charity game with some pro’s for Football Aid in 2002 and 2003, you “buy a shirt” for charity and get to play with old pro’s at League Ground (St Andrews in my case) and I could not believe then how light and plastic modern balls are, “bloody beach balls” one old pro (Noel Blake) commented, gather they are even lighter now.

      Ian SP2A 25/10/17 9:02 AM Reply


    • I think that the hatred between Spurs and West Ham goes deep and so I dont think that Spurs will put out a weak team. Wet Spam are a poor side anyway. I could see a short term bounce from Everton and so would favour that away win. Unsworth will tell them to get stuck in (He is not a subtle man).

      martin colwell 25/10/17 9:53 AM Reply


  • 7.20 Kempton
    Gorhams Cave is odds on and Roger Varian has found him one of the weakest maidens you could
    ever find.

    but the horse comes with a big risk as he pulled like a train last time and
    dropped out to be a distant 5th.
    Divine Messenger finish a place in front of him and is 33/1
    that’s not saying DM has a chance today it just shows that if the Favourite doesn’t
    settle he could be in big trouble.

    it is a case of if he settles ok he will beat this lot with easy
    but if he doesn’t he could be tailed off again.

    laying him in the place market wont be to damaging
    and would be nervous at 1/6 as a backer

    e/w AGNETHE at 9/2 with Corals could also be a fair bet
    with it being 40/1 bar 3

    peter 25/10/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • A couple of events next week to bring to your attention. On the 31st the London Racing Club have a Breeders Cup preview at the Holiday Inn Kensington, starts 7 PM. I forget the panel but it does include some pundits with international racing knowledge. Non memebrs welcome, pay on the door, reasonably cheap.
    The following day if the Matchbook Traders Conference at Bishopsgate in central London. Not a cheap event to attend but for serious punters a must do. This is an excellent event for networking with fellow traders/punters, which is a significant source of information.From a racing perspective those attending include Neil Channing, Harry Findlay, Dave Nevison and Nick Goss. If anyone wants me to ask them any questions let me know? mcolwell1959@aol.com .

    martin colwell 25/10/17 1:02 PM Reply


    • Say hi to Neil for me if you see him. I really must buy him a drink/dinner for introducing me to this wonderful sport.

      Nick Mazur 25/10/17 1:20 PM Reply


  • Bit out of form this end. Swings and round abouts and all that. Gd to see others doing well. Anyway a interesting runner in the 330 Newmarket is Songmaker w/p @7.4 and 2.6 currently. From a decent yard who do well here. Has had large breaks in between racing so could of been a injury but if the same horse the maiden run at Yarmouth we were touched off by one that has gone on to win in group company. Generally that race has worked out very well. Hoping we have been layed out to run a big race here.

    james bull 25/10/17 1:45 PM Reply


  • What’s with this NUMBER SEVEN winning all the races??

    yesterday 4 races won by saddlecloth number 7…..today it’s only just after 2.00pm and another 2 have won @ 6/1 & 13/2

    if I back them …they lose….if I forget about them, watch the race on TV….guess what wins

    So Ian @ SP2A, Josh & Nick…the way forward is select number 7…you cannot go wrong !!

    norman 25/10/17 2:10 PM Reply


    • Funny you should mention that Norman as on the 7/7/77 when I was 17; I sneaked with about 250 others on to Glastonbury Tor to see my all time Guitar Hero Steve Hillage record a couple of tracks, one was called Laylines to Glassdom and the other “7” later re-titled Ether Ships…..happy day!

      Ian SP2A 25/10/17 2:31 PM Reply


  • Will be having a few bob as soon as markets up for 4.45 at Ludlow tomorrow on QUIDS IN following Trainer comments on RUK yesterday after another of his horses won at Exeter, reasonably bullish he was, as noted in yesterdays Free Blog.

    Oliver Greenall maybe one to add to the 2 x P2P Trainers as discussed with Josh yesterday; Alastair Ralph and Jack Barber; and AR also has Comber Mill entered at Ludlow tomorrow 1.55. whilst Jack Barber has Ballynock Cloud entered in 3.10 at Southwell

    Ian SP2A 25/10/17 3:25 PM Reply


    • Yep, interesting, those three could be worth keeping an eye on.. wrote a few notes on both those in Members’ post today… Ralph really has upped his game this year and young Barber looks to have a bright future. We shall see how those three go!

      Josh 25/10/17 3:31 PM Reply


      • The more the merrier Josh, the more the merrier; there was a stage 4-5 years ago where 3-4 Trainers looked like dominating but fair play to likes of PFN who has developed a real conveyor belt of assistants and guys he has guided who are not coming out to try to beat the master. Fry and Skelton are at the vanguard but lots more coming through to challenge the older brigade and also some in North which has suffered since the great days of Dicenson; Stephenson; G Richards etc, makes NH imho far more interesting and exciting than Flat!

        Ian SP2A 25/10/17 3:42 PM Reply


        • “not” should be now (no excuse for a finger 3 keys wide LOL)

          Ian SP2A 25/10/17 3:43 PM Reply


    • On at 10/1 Ian and will look again later.

      martin colwell 25/10/17 4:41 PM Reply


    • Interestingly Comber Mill is a horse i know v well. I live about 5 mins from Comber Mill. Horse was trained down the road from me and my parents are friendly with the old owner…safe to say it was a donkey and i can’t believe its up to winning tomorrow!

      Jack 25/10/17 5:13 PM Reply


      • Jack; will bow to your better knowledge on that but would have said same about Bob Ford on good going inadequate trip and given recent form, so might be interesting to see if Mr Ralph really is a bot of a miracle worker..

        Ian@SP2A 25/10/17 5:42 PM Reply


        • Yep Ian, at the prices i hope you re putting alittle on still just incase! I would say he’s some miracle worker to get CM winning….not impossible i suppose!

          Jack 25/10/17 6:36 PM Reply


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