Members Daily Post: 24/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Yarmouth

2.00- Hameem (2YO) 30  9/4 UP

4.00- The Cornishbarron (all hncps) 14 20/1 UP

5.00 – Dream Start (all hncps) 14 H1 5/1 2nd 5/1 

 

JUMPS

Exeter

3.20 – Umberto D’Olivate (all hncps + hncp chase) ES G3 12/1 S1 S2 S3  UP

4.20 – Magnus Romeo (hncp hurdle) 16/1  S2  UP 8/1 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/108, +128.5)

NOTES

Magnus Romeo... UP – ran no sort of race… the Trainer/Jockey stats were boosted…sadly not by this one!! Moving on, one of those day… well at that price he is worth a nibble I think… he is 0/5,1p in handicap hurdles, which always catches the eye… that hope again that one day (prob a C5 around Taunton or something!) he will show more in this sphere. Two things caught the eye… Fehily has been booked, which was interesting enough… 8/44,16p when teaming up albeit a loss to SP which suggests he puts him up on some well fancied ones when they want to land a bet maybe..but solid, and he is all class. Of more interest (guessing really as to the significance or not of that booking) is the fact this is the horse’s first run over 21f, having been campaigned over 16-17f so far, over hurdles at least. (he is 0/19 in his career,hence why you would want a big juicy price…that type where you can afford to be wrong many many times, but being right, just occasionally, gives you something to cheer and leaves some profit- in the long run). There is one run which caught the eye and that was when I think he made handicap debut here, over 17f, in soft…it was his best run to date. He ran on well there, staying on as if he is well worth a go at this trip. He looks to have been outpaced on every other run since…if you have a horse who is going quicker than they want, just to keep up in a race over 17f, they can flatten out at the end of their races. He did ‘stay on’ a few times though. He made that debut off OR100, and races of 90 here. He is getting well handicapped and whatever he does is worth tracking- JF will get wins with him, at this moderate level. It was his only run on proper soft as well- maybe he needs cut also. So, there is some hope there- that he may relish this trip. Of course he may not stay, that’s the chance you take, and why you must get a decent price. His flat breeding wouldn’t give you much hope..but when I think that I always remind myself of The Young Master who is flat bred, and Mulholland turned him into a 3m4f chaser!

So, there are a few things there to give us hope. Two starts ago he finished lame and had two months off, before a gentle introduction on the AW LTO. I assume he will have come on for that and it is interesting they bring him back to the track where he has showed his best. That running on 3rd here was at 20/1 so I am not that fussed what the market does. 25s+ SP may be an indication thought. But, we will profit from this horse this season! Warren… get the tracker out!! 🙂 (please)

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Others… (not counted in totals)

I have tipped Umberto on the free post, along with a couple of others. It is a decent 3m handicap chase after all. Blimey it looks tough. I’m pretty bullish I have the winner though! (i always think that, you have to be positive…certainly those three look overpriced) Anyway, he hits numerous strategies and is definitely worth some support at those odds. He’ll go very close to winning one of these chases here this season, he just likes the place too much!

Dream Start… I can feel the splinters… he just isn’t a big enough price for me.. in a big field, class 6 dross at Yarmouth- I wanted a bigger price.. 8s+ I suspect…and if he drifts that way I will have a nibble.. mainly as this is his first turf run over 6f in a C6. Two starts ago he ran well in similar conditions in a C5. You would think a repeat of that puts him bang there. He missed the kick LTO and made his effort wide. A line through that one. He ran on as if in form. I have a niggle over the jockey also- not as a rider – but whether he is suited to this horse- he is a ‘quiet rider’, think opposite of SDS in full flow. I could have that wrong..but this horse can need some rousting along and from memory Mosse isn’t a ‘throw the kitchen sink at them’ type rider. Ryan is in great form, and he may now bolt up and make 5s look decent. But, given my niggles, I wanted a few points more. He is lightly raced/doing something different/for the first time.. drops from 7f LTO, back on grass, and first run on turf 6f/C6…and he is in form. So, on that basis, a case can clearly be made.

Update…  there may be nothing at all in this, but the Dream Start race… young Jack Osborn rides Captain Scooby… who ran yesterday, blew the start quite badly, and that was that. Jack rode Dream Start LTO, and I think is attached to Ryan’s yard.. or in any case he uses him plenty. CS needs everything to drop right- including not blowing the start..and needs a frenetic pace, not sure he will get that here. He is 16s. Do with those musings what you please, but I have only just noticed the jockey situation…and that is a handy 7lb to take off. If he repeats that Bath run, his last over 6f,then who knows! 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None. Ignore that..

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.50 Exeter – Snapdragon Fire / Thomas Patrick

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

David Peat’s Profiles: Weekly Update #2 READ HERE>>>

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Worth pondering… Joe H has just commented on the free post, the kind of comment I enjoy reading…and I am sure he won’t mind me repeating it… but touches on many an interesting point which you may, or may not, relate to…

“Just wanna say thanks to Nick, I was on both yesterday and also for most of the winners in the last few weeks. Also thanks to Josh for giving me the opportunity to become a member again through the discounted offer. The website + content is worth every penny and a lot more.
Since I’ve been back (circa 6wks) I’ve been backing TTP horses along with tips posted in comments. I’ve now built a bank 4x the size of my initial input. I’ve been on the website for a couple of years prior but I never previously had a proper bank to bet systematically. I learned this lesson the hard way losing too much when many here are building their banks. I’m glad to say I’m finally seeing the light, the years of observing on there pages is now paying off. Keep up the good work Josh! And the rest of the many posters (Nick, Ian, 2 Martin’s, Jack, Colin, Tonymc, Chris, Gearoid…) Hopefully I’ll be able to add something myself in the coming months to give something back.” Joe H

The point of me repeating that isn’t for an ego trip, promise, but touches on something that the likes of Warren and others have said before. I am of the firm belief that the only way you fail in this racing game of ours is in effect, by betting too much, too soon…and losing more than you care to think about, before you have settled on an approach that suits you. I have done the ‘dive in and be impatient’ approach, as has Joe, and many reading this no doubt. This blog/members site/free posts/comments may well not be for you in the long run, but that point about having a ‘proper bank’ and building over time cannot be emphasised enough. That doesn’t mean we won’t all have our ‘moments’ when discipline sometimes goes out the window, momentarily- we are all human after all, but the general point stands. Slow and steady, small bets, proper banks, build up over time, find an approach that suits your psychology. And be patient.

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MORE FREE STUFF….

If you missed my email yesterday, with a superb freebie from my good pal Ben Aitken, you can read it HERE>>>

(his is one of three email lists I would advise you joining…well, I enjoy being on them..his, Gavin’s – join here>>, and Matt’s- join here>>>. Quality freebies/info, throughout the year, guaranteed. Being on said lists will improve you as a punter, and make you more profitable over time. Or, worst case, provide you with something interesting to read! 🙂 )

In Ben’s report he has looked at 5 jumps jockeys who are dynamite on front runners… I had a hunch for most of them, one was a total surprise and is worth noting… take a look HERE>>>

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That’s the lot for today, the task at the top of my ‘to do’ list is to update those advised strategy results… on their way…

GL with any bets today,as always,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • We’ll all pile into ‘Dream Start’ tomorrow on behalf of the Josh/S2A show!

    chrisrees 23/10/17 4:25 PM Reply


    • haha, yep pleased with how they have started! For the conscientious ‘product pushers’ it is always a relief when they have a good start! The X that took the plunge have had a great start. Very rare for me to advise others try such a service but we seemed to have picked a good one. Patience rewarded. And of course quite happy with my own recent ‘tipping’ efforts! 🙂 Wobble not far off though. Just has to come.

      Josh 23/10/17 4:52 PM Reply


  • Josh, been a member for a few months now really enjoying the site and the recent addition of the strategy ‘s’ key is cool.

    The approach is great and throws some cracking winners up, a very good guide to racing and some approaches I hadn’t ever considered before.

    Its great how other members contribute too and I hope in time I’ll be able to do the same!

    Cheers

    Luke 23/10/17 6:49 PM Reply


    • I try and be cool Luke haha, much appreciated. Yep there has always been a good ‘feel’ about the place and pleased with how it is all going. With any luck it all just keeps ticking along, but in any case hopefully always something of interest to read/ponder.

      This game is all about trying to progress and all comments always welcome. With any luck you notice some progression in your own approach to the game.

      Josh

      Josh 23/10/17 8:08 PM Reply


  • Race Trace – 2.50 Exe Lord Duveen – stable has won the race 5 times recently with a coupke of well priced runners up. Good ew bet. Took 12s earlier now 8s.

    Andy N 23/10/17 9:16 PM Reply


  • Yarmouth 3:30 – Knight Music 22/1 currently
    Maybe overpriced been running C4/C3 recently and drops down to C5
    B365 offering 4 places at 15s
    Mr Priestley’s Nap (Dolphin Villsge) runs in the same though.
    Knight M looks less exposed to me. We shall see 🙂

    Darren 23/10/17 10:14 PM Reply


    • On 30 7 16 KM well beaten by DV.
      Showers f/c for tomorrow so going uncertainty.
      All those Yarmouth h’caps look trappy with a handful that look well ‘capped in each race.

      chrisrees 23/10/17 11:05 PM Reply


  • Oh i dont doubt for a minute there are risks attached Chris.
    KM lightly raced since then. Just 4. Where as DV has had 14 races in the same period. So in mind KM will be the fresher. Hajaam will probably bolt up!

    Darren 23/10/17 11:38 PM Reply


    • KM has by far the best draw…. is 1pt ahead of DV which is nothing…but Hajaam is top clear on ratings…[of course] but if AB can ride this right then KM could steal it.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 24/10/17 12:45 PM Reply


  • Josh can you give me the 5 names of the jockeys from the report please as it wont let me in to access them

    yourifc 24/10/17 10:32 AM Reply


    • Hi, I have just emailed you the direct link I think.
      Josh

      Josh 24/10/17 10:42 AM Reply


      • many thanks Josh

        yourifc 24/10/17 11:30 AM Reply


  • Josh, if possible can you do the same for me….i have been subscribed to the mails for sometime, most go to junk, but run searches and cant find it..

    Jack Houston 24/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


    • done. 🙂

      Josh 24/10/17 10:57 AM Reply


  • I had similar problems yesterday but Ben kindly sent me the link

    https://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-downloads/

    norman 24/10/17 10:57 AM Reply


  • Josh it’s in the tracker with notes ready for next time.

    todays tracker horses.
    2:50 Exeter
    Lalor.
    He’s a young horse with a big win at Aintree under his belt.
    Won first time of asking last year so he will probably be fit and ready this time around.
    It is a stiffer task than last year’s first time out but he is clearly better than the cl6 then.
    Yes he is short but I don’t think he can be discounted.

    3:20 Exeter
    Killbree kid
    I’ll be honest I just don’t fancy him. Might regret that but I think others have made a better case in today’s race.
    Bear rails
    Bigger field i don’t think suit and I think he may need the run.
    One to watch later.

    6:45 kempton
    Frostbite
    His is a horse mentioned by Hugh Fowler in one of his posts.
    The stout horse Procedure maybe a good thing. The hills horse eraad is no small change first time out shot.
    So he may be up against it today but he has a couple of runs under his belt a jockey change and a yard in form. A little e/w money for me.

    Warren bottomley 24/10/17 11:44 AM Reply


    • Cheers Warren… you can add in Poseidon for Ed Walker from yesterday as well if you wish haha – just don’t ever go on holiday!! 🙂

      He was a ‘notes’ horse, and was the last one off the bridle..travelled like the winner- one problem, he was about 2/3rs back and in that ground just seemed to flounder when asked… apparently he got agitated pre race also, looked sweaty to my eye, and vet gave him once over- that must have played on jockeys mind when he ‘pushed the button’ – in any case horse may have used up his reserves pre race. He looked ‘in form’ still..maybe drop back to C5, or given when we are at in season they will run him back on AW… given way he travelled I really thought he was going to get involved, alas, he just plodded home. One to keep an eye on, maybe!

      Josh

      p.s should add I will be/do add some of these to my tracker, but my ability to track horses is questionable, i blame everything else that’s going on in my head!

      Josh 24/10/17 11:48 AM Reply


    • I have Frostbite in my tracker and am expecting a top run today.

      martin colwell 24/10/17 1:05 PM Reply


  • Gingili does it for the Farrelly Fehily partnership have you chose the wrong one

    George

    George 24/10/17 3:36 PM Reply


    • Yes I suspect so haha… not a penny on Gingili, didn’t give him much chance at all really… ‘only 12s’ when I looked mind, and a few too many issues with him for me. Oh well. Trainer sounded positive as to one above also, we shall see. Like stablemate..appears to have mental issues…when putting it all together can run well! All in the head.

      Josh 24/10/17 3:51 PM Reply


  • Knight Music 4th
    Got boxed in 2f. Couldve been closer.

    Darren 24/10/17 4:21 PM Reply


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