Members Daily Post: 23/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Windsor

2.10 –

Poseidon (all hncps) 14 G3 10/1 UP

Tangramm (micro going) 14 I3 25/1 UP

3.10 –

Sayem (all hncps) 14 H1 I3  13/2   S2 S6  UP

Golden Wedding (3yo+) 14 H3 I1 10/1  S2 S6 UP

Harlequin Striker (micro going) 14 G3 11/2 UP

3.40 – John Joiner (3yo+) G1  7/1  S6  UP

4.10-

Sky Marshal (all hncps) 14  5/1 UP 16/1 

Hedging (3yo+) 14 H3 I3 G3  6/1 S4 S5  UP

 

Pontefract

3.20 –

Silvery Moon (3yo+, + TJC) H3 10/1 WON 10/1>9/2 

Purple Rock (micro age) I3 G3 11/1 UP

5.20 – Van Gerwen (3yo+) I3 11/2

 

JUMPS

Plumpton

4.30 – Invicta Lake (m2) 9/1 UP

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (23/104, +121.5)

NOTES 

A few interesting runners today at decent prices. First up is Windsor… a general point… I did wonder why Jamie Spencer wasn’t on any Ed Walker horses here, as he generally is the go to man. He is up at Ponty, riding two for Ed Walker, who both seem well fancied enough. Maybe that is an indication as to the chances of those at Windsor but best not to over-think these things too much… there is a distinct possibility I am about to pick out the wrong ones also,but for systematic strategy backers, a few are covered anyway…

PoseidonUP I can’t really work out his price here.. yes he isn’t doing much different but he is unexposed enough, in form, and is  still open to improvement. It is only his 5th handicap and 2nd in an all age handicap. It may be no coincidence that his first win came LTO when tackling soft for the first time. Yes he needs to step up again into C4 but given that profile, and the form of the yard, I couldn’t really resist at a double figure price. Just seems big.  His winning rider from the last day keeps the ride.

John JoinerUPa more exposed ‘been there and done it’ type but again his price seems more than generous. He is at least doing something different, mainly the drop in class. In class 6 turf handicaps he is 2/7,6p, and on that basis alone probably worth a go. Josie G is 1/3,2p on him, inc his penultimate win last June, which coincidentally was a C6, 5f handicap at Windsor, in soft ground. She has ridden him once since when coming a close 3rd back over this CD, in C5, back in August. It may be he is 1-3 pounds too high but given his profile against race conditions he is worth a nibble. He is also top rated Geegeez Speed, and any ‘Gold Subscribers’ will know how deadly they are over 5f, as a micro system in themselves. 20% or so win SR, solid 20%+ ROI, with a big sample size, 500+ I think.

Sky Marshal –UP  the market suggests he isn’t winning this but he is the one horse in my ‘notes’ today who is both unexposed and doing something different (the magic formula!)… he is making handicap debut and stepping back up in trip from his last run. He was 5s, 6s, when I started pulling this post together and has somewhat doubled in price. But, that makes him back-able to my eyes, and the market doesn’t have a clue a lot of the time. I don’t like a drift with this profile but I simply cannot resist at those odds. Walker is 1/7,5p with his handicap debutants here.  The break is one of those iffy periods of time…one that can be seen as both a negative or a positive- you would have to be close to the yard/get a trainer quote, to know… it could be he has been tuned up more fully after 3 maiden runs/given time/had a breathing op/waiting for soft or it indicates there has been a problem and he may well need this outing. We shall see. Clearly if he drifts past 12s, 14s, I won’t hold out much hope!

Silvery Moon- WON 10/1>9/2  an old timer who will no doubt be beaten by younger legs but at double figures I just couldn’t help myself, again. He drops back into C4 here which is no doubt his level these days, and is 4/7 in C4 worth less than 6k to winner. His mark has come down a bit, Allan returns in the saddle, and he has some decent placed form at the track, in higher classes back in the day. He will appreciate this ground and this stiff climb to the line. He is a bit once paced these days. But, those old legs and relentless galloping, may just be enough here. I’d be mildly surprised if he didn’t place here/run his race.

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That will do… 4 pokes there, with any luck one may drop in for a profitable ‘notes’ day, but we shall see. At the odds I had to play. As always these are just positive thoughts as to the runners, and a horse from section 1 not being mentioned in section 2 is NOT a negative as to their chance. Just how I look at things. Never let a horse not being mentioned by me above put you off a bet in section 1, especially if it is a strategy qual and you back those systematically.

 

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GL with any bets. Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

FOR INTEREST…

Jumps Strategies…. 

I have trawled through all Jumps results since I introduced the Inform Speed Ratings (I1/I3) to see if they match the results of Strategy 1 – the same method.. ie 10/1+ on morning prices as added next to horse in Section 1, or 11.00+ BFSP, to cover any drifters. So, here we are talking about a Jumps qualifier with an I1 or I3 next to their name, that is 10/1 or bigger on morning price or 11.00+ BFSP , if shorter than 10s on morning prices. The results.. since start of May when I first introduced Inform, which was driven by Geegeez speed ratings having the summer off over jumps…

Total: 74 best / 7 wins / +38 early|bog / +43 BFSP (after commission)

Just Top Rated: 3/21, +30, +30 .. not much in that really.

Thoughts… I will add them to the ‘monitoring’ pile, because at the moment, at a 10% win SR, they are not outperforming Strategy 2 (10/1-25/1) which isn’t based on any ratings pointers. Whereas the current strategy #1 is operating around the 18% win sr range, and that makes a big difference, esp to profit and ROI. It is early days of course, and I suppose they are small enough numbers. As always with the ratings pointers strategies the confidence stems from the fact they are a constant – (horse based methodology not changing etc,and even if my trainer stats take a dive they provide some reassurance – hence why the ‘portfolio’ of strategies idea is a good one I think)  and in theory they should keep repeating. It could be decent if they could get up to 15-18% win SR, but we shall see. They hit one losing run of 28 or so in that time, as you would expect with 10% win SRs. There will be worse ones, if that is the long term win %. 

As always, do with that info as you please. I will monitor these moving forwards.

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Trainer Research

The sad individual that I am had a ‘Horse Race Base morning’ on Sunday – no idea why I’m single! 🙂 – digging around a few things… there are a handful of jumps trainers I want to have a look at in the coming weeks, and TOM LACEY is one of them…

-given you would have won +70 points backing all his runners to date. That doesn’t look a good way forward though,for one reason or another. His operation seems to have stepped forward in the last two years and I think I have found a ‘way in’ to monitor…

Rules… Tom Lacey / 2016/2017- / NOT NHF races / 1+ run this season / 0 career win in handicap NH race type (so unexposed/yet to show best/could be useless!) / any odds

Results… 71 bets / 21 wins / 32 places / 30% sr / +95 SP / +116 BFSP /AE 1.96 

Now, he is interesting.. because I believe they are a selling yard.. a lot of their horses have a price, (based on interviews he has given) and he generally tries to run them in races they can win.. I mean a winning horse LTO is probably easier to sell. He seems to be very selective. That doesn’t mean he stops training them when new owners are found but I think that is how they are geared up. So, there is logic there, and generally anyway, for focusing on those yet to win in said handicap NH race type (that does cover non-handicap races also)- that hope they have as yet show their best/there should be more to come one day.

So, something to keep an eye on there. The odd biggie drops in. Maybe the market will/has cottoned on, we shall see.

I will add him, and any others I find in the coming weeks, into a report or something. But he is saved in one of my HRB accounts and I will throw him into the ‘test zone’

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Right, that will do for today. I will bring the advised strategy results up to date today.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

62 Comments

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  • What a shambles were were!

    Jack 22/10/17 7:25 PM Reply


    • * we were!

      Jack 22/10/17 7:26 PM Reply


  • As a Liverpool fan (child growing up in the 70’s and 80’s) what’s your opinion on Klopp? I personally thought he was made for the job. Takes time to turn a ship around and willing to give him time but he needs to strengthen at the back, no doubt, and very little seems to have been done.
    Keep those winners coming…love the site Josh

    robertw 22/10/17 8:53 PM Reply


    • I think it is likely the owners not investing in the playing squad. I am unsure re Jurgen Klopp but if you are not producing talent in house you have to buy it and pay the going rate. The defence is not up to the top level and the midfielders work hard but lack the ability of a Souness or a McDermott or a Gerrard. However they can still compete for fourth place. Spurs now seem to be the only top team who still produce players from their youth set up to go into the first team. Whereas in the Championship we have to do it.

      martin colwell 22/10/17 10:08 PM Reply


  • Good call yesterday with Boots. Once again bailed me out. Oh and as a exiled Magpie, wetting myself about the future if these take over rumors are true KEEP YOUR HANDS OFF WOR RAFA!!!!!

    Tony Tolhurst 22/10/17 9:06 PM Reply


    • Exciting times on the Tyneside. He is a tactical genius, and if can get the financial support, along with club leadership that leaves him alone/no politics (albeit Rafa usually falls out with someone on the board!) then you will be solid top 10 no problem, and no doubt fight every year for top 6…then who knows. He is building something there, which is his way. The odd dud signing no doubt, but when he gets it right, he can find some gems.

      Josh 23/10/17 10:23 AM Reply


  • Lovren poor again and not for the first time
    Klavan very average
    Can is reckless when tackling
    Henderson is slow, tired
    Milner…looks as though his age has caught him out…Tottenham’s Son went past him very easily
    Matip makes a lot of mistakes
    Mignolet & Karius blow very Hot or Cold
    Oxlade-Chamberlain….has he been on a Liverpool PL winning side yet?
    ONE GOOD THING….Moreno has started to play well and still attacks with some effort

    if they don’t want to sell Coutinho then Klopp should threaten to resign because an improvement in the team will not happen without new blood and it has got to be in defence….for every goal conceded the forwards must equal and then get a winner….not easy with this tired, worn-out defence committed to square ball playing and passing back to the risky control of the goalkeeper

    norman 22/10/17 11:59 PM Reply


    • I am not a great thinker on football really, but take the view that at the elite level it is often better served to be patient and I don’t like constant chopping and changing…
      -there is a general point that the league is much more competitive these days, strength in depth all the way down really, anyone can beat anyone. I think based on the semi finals/cup finals, and him getting us into CL (which shouldnt be underestimated), + the entertainment of team, that he deserves longer- two more transfer windows say
      -everyone knows the issues. My problem is that arguably since the days of Rafa (love that man,i’d have him back one day) we have not had a world class spine. Suarez was our last world class player, albeit PC and Mane could reach that level.
      -We need a WC GK, 2 top CBs, and prob another top full back. We need a WC holding midfielder. Scoring hasn’t been our problem. We have had the same ‘feel’ as a team for 5+ years now- same issues etc. It is a mystery why Klopp hasn’t sorted those issues- yes we missed out on VD but should have been back up options.. Jose knew United needed to score more- he missed out on his first two striker options, spend 75m on his back up option. Ruthless. no hanging about.
      -we also lack bite and some proper leadership, esp at the back. It can all get a bit timid and we rarely get down and dirty.
      -i like the idea of building something,and Klopp should be given more time to build. But unless he changes certain personnel then history will keep repeating. Which is a bit depressing. Thankfully I have racing to get emotionally involved with. And it is only a game.

      Right, that’s that, no more football talk.

      Josh 23/10/17 10:19 AM Reply


  • am i the only spurs fan here 😀

    over the moon with that result liverpool have always been our bogey team but we played well yesterday

    Dan 23/10/17 7:33 AM Reply


    • And the Spurs go marching on !!!!!!

      dodger 23/10/17 7:45 AM Reply


      • yes yes, enough of that now gents! 🙂

        Josh 23/10/17 7:53 AM Reply


    • No your not! Great win for us, but I felt Liverpool played into our hands, so many poor decisions made by the back 4 and keeper, afraid you’ll never win against decent sides if you make such basic mistakes, but then defending has never been Klopp’s strong point. Fun to watch though. Worried about losing Harry if he carries on in this vein!

      JamesP 23/10/17 9:13 AM Reply


    • Not at all Dan, Come on you Spurs!!!!! Liverpools summer catching up with them again. Set there heart on signing Virgil Van Dijk and clearly had no alternative plan when they couldn’t get him. Very poor planning costing them again

      Leigh Evans 23/10/17 9:41 AM Reply


      • COYS!!
        Pochettino = Genius. Jose, Pep, and to an extent Klopp take the headlines, but i wouldn’t swap Poch for anyone. Would any of those other managers have given Kane a leading role as an unproven 21 year old? Look at what he is doing with Harry Winks – he will be an England starter in the World Cup in Russia. Liverpool have some great young players. That Robertson that you signed from Hull is a very exciting player. Woodburn, Stewart, Alexander-Arnold, Solanke – where are they? They would be a better bet than some of those overpaid blokes currently wearing the Liverpool shirt. How does Millner get in that team ahead of those young lads?
        Wouldn’t worry about Kane leaving either, as long as the club match his ambition, which they will whilst Poch is manager, then he will stay. Very humble grounded guy who is motivated more by winning something for his club and chasing down Shearer’s record than he is by money. Alli may well leave, but he would be a fool to do so at the moment.

        alhart 23/10/17 10:37 AM Reply


  • Josh

    You have the wrong date.

    Mike

    mickeydee 23/10/17 7:57 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, so I had, cheers!

      Josh 23/10/17 7:59 AM Reply


  • Race Trace
    2-3 +£11.50 PLUMPTON
    Suzy Smith 1-❖-1-3-❖…………………..Invicta Lake, Clondaw Bisto
    Two runners for Suzy Smith in the race, but I was pleased to see Invicta Lake appear in Josh’s stats above, as that was my preference given Jack Sherwood’s 3/5 stats for her at the course. Seems to be a bit of money at 9/1.

    Andy N 23/10/17 8:07 AM Reply


    • Suzy Smith is 41/14 + 73pts with Hcp hurdlers at Plumpton so have backed both runners, but good to see Josh also has it in his stats.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 23/10/17 8:19 AM Reply


      • Yep in general she has had a torrid time of it in the last couple of years, only 1/29 all runners 2017, and 6/60 odd in whole of 2016 I think.. I wonder if she just has a lack of new blood etc, or lost owners maybe. generally the same horses keep cropping up these days. Due a revival so you never know. Her longer term record is decent, but on recent evidence I think that was why she was dropped from any of my general handicap stats…but she is 4/6 here in the last 3 years with those returning 90+ days.. we shall see.. that is a long break for any horse, esp a 10 year old…at his best he would demolish this lot, but he is no doubt a long way below that now. Prob worth a stab at 10s given you would think he is as fit as they can get him- as less risk to him, and if you have been patient with one for that long I can’t think you’d take any chances.
        Gl

        Josh 23/10/17 10:06 AM Reply


  • 4pm Plumpton-Miss Crick
    This one looks a bit big at 16/1,maybe its partly that King is well below his normal strike rate,1-23,he is however 4-9 with chasers here(might not be novice handicaps though again) and is a a quite healthy 27% with novice chasers overall (might not be novice handicaps),quite a good hurdler and whether she makes a chaser is another question,might be one to watch unless there is market confidence as day progresses

    gearoid180468 23/10/17 9:22 AM Reply


    • That looks an interesting race and appeared potentially above average. I don’t like tipping anything making their chase debut but have had a £5 e/w on Octagon who was apparently well treated 12 months ago and was expected to improve when chasing before he had an injury and has apparently grown massively over the summer (this from 2 different sources). Was 16s last night (I only got 11s) and into as low as 7s now. We also have Accord who was mentioned in the guest post and won LTO.

      Nick Mazur 23/10/17 9:50 AM Reply


      • I too like Octagon. He appears well handicapped and the trainer is in form. In the 3.30 PL Gary Priestley puts up a good case for a 66/1 shot in Ermyns Emerald, course form, down in trip and in the weights. Usual Monday fodder I am afraid. Save your pot for Cheltenham later this week.

        martin colwell 23/10/17 10:04 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, off to Devon And Exeter tomorrow. Any clues much appreciated.
    Hugh

    alpha2 23/10/17 9:58 AM Reply


    • Hi Hugh, i’m sure there will be some thoughts, esp on that 3m handicap chase… I would like some rain about, don’t like ‘winter’ jumping on Good ground, i am always more comfortable when the mud is flying! But generally, I do ok at Exeter. Proper test of a horse, esp stamina. And their fences catch out plenty.

      Josh 23/10/17 10:00 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. I would also like to say Up The Villa! You’ll have more than Spurs to worry about next season.
        Hugh

        alpha2 23/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


  • Morning.

    An horse I will be backing today is Silvery Moon in the 3.20, glad to see he is a qualifier today Josh, got 10/1 on an horse who still hasn’t won this year , slipped down to winnable handicap mark, ground should be a big plus and seems to come good this time of the year and I think this race is a lot easier than ones he’s been racing in lately, so expecting a big run today.

    Lui 23/10/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • OUCH, that hurt Josh, seeing you picked Sky Marshall over Hedging, I thought you might have gone for Hedging over SM, got 6s for H, might have to a little saver on SM also now.

    Lui 23/10/17 10:21 AM Reply


    • Why does that hurt?? Only my opinion, if I can make a case for the one at bigger odds that’s always the one I will go with.. I am a treble rated backer so he had a bit on at his price, by Sky Marshal the most intriguing..at the odds. Hedging was a bit more ‘exposed’ albeit only 3 still… 10 handicap runs.. but only his 3rd run over 8f, and only his 2nd in C5. Drop in class from the last day. He should go close, with any luck one of them wins. I did note how he was covered by a strategy and the other wasnt!

      Josh 23/10/17 10:27 AM Reply


      • I value your opinions very highly Josh, wasn’t a dig, I just thought Hedging would definitely cope with the soft conditions and Sky Marshall although he ran well on soft LTO, decided to stick with the horse who has won on it.

        Lui 23/10/17 11:45 AM Reply


  • i like Liquid Gold in 210 Windsor. This one is in my tracker as it was a Fahey horse that was declared at the abandoned Ayr gold cup meeting. I think Fahey likes to aim them at that meeting and think Josh you had one or two micros set up for that too of which this one would have qualified. Anyway, he ran lto at Chester and was caught wide there and did well to finish where he did imo. Interestingly, for a trainer who has so many horses/runners overall, Fahey is 6 from 19, 9 places +22 at Windsor in last 2 yrs . Looks a competitive race with many in form horses, but 12/1 allows the play.

    jamesm 23/10/17 10:33 AM Reply


  • Interesting notes on Lacey Josh. I don’t know if it is still true but if i recall correctly most of his profit when I looked at the start of the year was when Dickie was riding so potentially a way to improve those stats further.

    Nick Mazur 23/10/17 10:43 AM Reply


    • Yea there wasn’t too much there.. I mean he is the go to man generally.. will dig out stats but did look at them.. but certainly more of a ‘mark up his rides’ angle, than say ignore those ridden by someone else. As this season progresses, given ammo at Hobbs, new relationship with Greatrex, and his other commitments (H Daly) then I would assume he will be used less, as less available- but that means when booked it is def a positive. Esp in deep winter when a few meetings in a day where he has choice of where to be. Given you know he will be chasing the championship again, there will be method to whatever card he rides at, on any given day. Albeit Hobbs always first dibs I believe.

      Josh 23/10/17 10:52 AM Reply


  • Martin put up a good word for a first time out 100/1 shot on 10th October at Newcasle, after starting slowly it got the hang of it and moved well into the final furlong and was only beaten into 2nd by a neck. I made a note of it in my tracker and it is out again today in the 4.20 at Pontefract Darksideoftarnside currently 9/1 could be worth a bit of shrapnel.

    Tom 23/10/17 11:41 AM Reply


    • Yes, missed it somehow today. I heard the stable rate the horse highly and so why I was on at 100/1. Hopefully he will get going a bit earlier today. His moment of truth I guess?

      martin colwell 23/10/17 1:34 PM Reply


      • Top work gents, that went to plan.. stayed on dourly!

        Josh 23/10/17 4:45 PM Reply


        • Yes the stable knew what they were talking about there. Thanks for the reminder it was running. I owe that person a drink.

          martin colwell 23/10/17 6:02 PM Reply


          • It ran much better this time Martin, probably go further as well as the hill up the finish at Ponte is a bit of a drag, he handled it and the ground well, as regards a drink Martin, I definitely owe you more for all the pointers you have given me.

            Tom 23/10/17 6:19 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh and RTP clan,
    Anyone heard of or had dealings with a guy called Paul Broadway?
    Seems to be a new kid on the block. Sent me a free pdf of profiles which make intersesting reading.
    Challenge him on a few points. Vague is the only way I could describe his reply ( not like you Josh). Any input would be appreciated.

    Jarrod

    jarrodholmes68 23/10/17 12:29 PM Reply


    • Never Jarrod- where did you stumble across him?

      Jack Houston 23/10/17 12:33 PM Reply


      • Hi Jack, I didn’t…. He found me.
        Pdf looks at top weights from certain stables running in class 4 and 5 races both hurdles and fences Nov -Apr.

        Regards
        Jarrod

        jarrodholmes68 23/10/17 1:10 PM Reply


      • Hi Jack,
        Jebs gamble would be a qualifier if we were in Nov as would crafty Roberto once claim was taken into account. See how they go aye?

        jarrodholmes68 23/10/17 1:43 PM Reply


    • Hi guys, I’ll vouch for Paul Broadway’s credentials as an excellent providers of profitable trainer based micro systems.
      I’ve been with him since July 16 and have never regretted it.
      They are great starting points for study of the days racing.
      Regards
      Chris

      Chris Mcilfatrick 23/10/17 1:42 PM Reply


      • Hi Chris,
        Would those be the 2 above if we were in Nov?

        jarrodholmes68 23/10/17 1:45 PM Reply


        • Hi Jarrod,

          I know of him, yes. Was around a couple of years back, then went quiet I think, or I just got busier. Think I am on his email list still..which is ok actually, he doesn’t bombard you with crap and odd interesting idea.

          I am not 100% on this but he may have been a ‘student’ of Matt’s like me (when he did a training package X number of years ago – you wouldn’t know who I was without that)

          I was asked to promote his latest PDF, out of the blue as I had dealings with him before but hadn’t heard from him… I didn’t like the free report if I am being honest- I had a good look at it, and for a trainer approach- too many of the angles didn’t make much logical sense – not for a blanket trainer approach. And the numbers in the free report were very small indeed, which when combined with illogical ‘rules’ didn’t in-still much confidence.

          I don’t think that was a true representation of some of the quality he has produced. That was my honest assessment.

          Now, I haven’t seen the main product, but given it was trainer based, and track based at that, I wasn’t really going to promote it! It sounded too close to what I do, and didn’t make much business sense- that combined with the fact it is a hectic time of year on the promotions front and I can only fit so much in.

          But I believe it was £57 for a PDF?… which made me gulp.. I mean I have given you TTP Summer Stats/ Winter 2017/8 for free, (in effect)! It may be better than anything I have ever produced, I don’t know. And as I said I haven’t seen the final product so maybe I am being harsh. Maybe I just under-price everything I do! That may be value and turn out to be very profitable

          Character… which is as important as products arguably… well I think you can trust him. You get a ‘feel’ for someone when on their email list and I have no doubt his heart is in the right place. You may pick up the odd decent free angle/idea/report from time to time. And he may have a cracker of a service. And if I was doing a launch I would ask him to help, without agreeing to reciprocate, at this time.

          Hope that helps,
          Josh

          p.s.. I don’t like your ‘he found me answer’ ! You sure you have never opted into one of his lists? Or got email about him from someone else…?? Very odd/questionable if you got a direct email from him and never opted in!

          Josh 23/10/17 1:50 PM Reply


          • Hi Josh,
            Thanks for that.

            I was dubious due to the email out the blue. Hand on heart I never put my name to anything I can’t research myself. I detest being bombarded with emails of this type. But it was free and yes very small samples.

            Due to the fact that you know of him I’ll keep my mouth shut. Plus being a student of Matt. It’s just the fact of, like yourself and uni days, finding services that keep you chasing shadows and loosing money in the process. Like many on here I suspect that they too have emails out the blue from other racing services. So I’m convinced there is a mailing list available to a select few. I’m not referring to you either Josh.

            Fore armed fore warned so to speak. Are we not a group of individuals sharing ideas, systems and thoughts on our favorite pastime? There are a lot of crooks out there! Like you know yourself.

            My original comment was not intended to stir up any ill feelings. I replied to this guy requesting a little transparency. His reply was anything but. I won’t be spending a penny on his service regardless. Free stuff I’ll take all day.

            I don’t think there is a service out there to warrant attention as much as your’s or Ben’s.

            Kind regards
            Jarrod

            jarrodholmes68 23/10/17 3:10 PM Reply


  • 5:30 PLUMPTON – HOMERS ODYSSEY 8/1.
    Been tracking this horse since his run at the track last February off a mark of 98. He tried to serve it up to Act Now that day and ultimately couldn’t stay the 3 miles with that rival and even got done for 2nd on the line by Wishicould.
    Act Now was winning off 92 that day and has since won off 105. Wishicould was off 110 and won by 9 lengths in a better race at Newbury off that mark next time out. Was then a good 2nd to Act Now off 119. Had HO been ridden for 2nd in that Plumpton race he would definitely have beaten Wishicould last February.
    Next time out HO flopped on heavy ground at Wincanton where he appeared to hate the ground. He was then put away for the Summer.
    He returns today, dropped 3lb to 95, despite the 2 that beat him that day being rated 20lb and 15lb higher now.
    Chris Gordon’s yard are in decent form – last 30 days, 20 runners, 2 winners and 8 placed.
    The Gordon yard are exceptional with handicap hurdlers at Plumpton – last 2 years they have run 25, 9 winners and 15 placed, those figures improve to 17-7-11 when Cannon is riding. (possibly merit you looking at them for the Elite Squad Josh?)
    Would have preferred the horse to have had a run, but at 8/1 he looks worthy of an each way interest.

    alhart 23/10/17 12:36 PM Reply


    • Hi Al,
      I do always shudder when I see track stats like that and wonder if I have made a howler! My track stats look from start of 2014, and in 2014 and 2015 he was 0/31,7p here with his handicap hurdlers- and if there are two losing years in my research period, they usually get a red mark, and certainly when that substantial.
      But, his stats since the start of 2016 are decent, and those 9 winners with 8 different horses. 5 of them have been short enough (5/2, SP) and most of the +30 SP profit has been down to 2 winners, but no bad thing in itself. It may well suggest a change of MO and this is now a track he targets. And maybe this time next year he will have proved that and will be included for handicap hurdlers.
      We have him covered for Novice handicap chasers and all handicappers running over 2m-2m 1/2 furlong.
      Gl today, something to keep an eye on for sure.
      Josh

      Josh 23/10/17 2:46 PM Reply


    • Alhart
      Well done with your Gordon/cannon combo at Plumton.
      I wasn’t on it Doh!!

      Mike

      mickeydee 23/10/17 2:49 PM Reply


  • Paul Broadway runs a similar systems and qualifiers I think he is or was trading as Sweetspots up till last year and does claim to be a trainee of matts Josh
    Hope that helps lads

    Aaron Lumsden 23/10/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • Yep, I believe his sweetspots stuff was quite good, seemed to find some nice winners etc, albeit never looked at the content. But he must be doing something right if he has happy subscribers like Chris above! Yep, sadly I cannot match that element of his CV 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 23/10/17 2:43 PM Reply


  • Your still rolling along relentlessly Josh,another day another winner

    gearoid180468 23/10/17 3:27 PM Reply


    • We will enjoy it while it lasts, another +7 guaranteed, maybe one other can drop in. On we march. Need to get the jumps eyes up to scratch now!

      Josh 23/10/17 3:32 PM Reply


  • Silvery Moon Josh….Ian tipped it up…Ye of little faith..lol. It won so well.
    What a grand old servant.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 23/10/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • Well done Josh, with you and Ian both on Silvery Moon I had to get on at 9/1. Well backed. Keep it up you two.

      martin colwell 23/10/17 3:47 PM Reply


  • Another one for your notes Josh..well done

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 23/10/17 3:29 PM Reply


    • I think that was the ‘holy trinity’, Nick tipped him on free post, so did SP2A/Ian, and then notes to round off. I do make sure I don’t read Ian’s email before I look through section 1/add notes.. so always boosts confidence when land on one with our different approaches/starting points. I think we may be 3/3 when they have tipped one that I also land on in the notes. Lovely. Another good day for those assured.

      Josh 23/10/17 3:32 PM Reply


  • And again Josh thank you !!

    Dee 23/10/17 3:32 PM Reply


    • Pleasure, Monday is a bit early in the week to crack open the beers again?? 🙂

      Josh 23/10/17 3:56 PM Reply


      • Ha ha,Yeah also being a school night too lol top work lad.well done !!

        Dee 23/10/17 5:16 PM Reply


  • i am finally realising just how good you are josh with these notes picks, from tomorrow
    the first thing am doing is checking this site, which when you think how many am subscribed to as well as own systems is a real complement! need to get good prices on them

    pendrem 23/10/17 4:03 PM Reply


    • We’ve had a good run 🙂 But it will go downhill soon enough, it just has to. i can’t keep that level of profit/ROI/SR up given average odds. I do deliberately leave the notes until morning, and judge market then. Also allows me to attach list having not thought about horses for 10h+, which helps. As with anything money can start to pour on from 9 ish, esp if tipped elsewhere. 10s, 9s held for an age I think.

      Josh 23/10/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • great shout with Darksideoftarnside as well….. (not that I backed it ! ) hats off ** thumbs up**

    kevin 23/10/17 4:30 PM Reply


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