Members Daily Post: 22/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

JUMPS

Kempton

3.50 – Noche De Reyes (micro age + runs) H3 I1  6/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (23/104, +121.5)

None for Sunday. Quiet day ahead.

Think I will ditch the ‘bet of the day’ and just go with ‘notes’ which are clearly in effect ‘tips’ if you will, but for some reason that approach seems to work mentally much better than trying to pick just one out. Those profit figures are mad. I would take +121.5 points over a 12 month period for Section 2, let alone 7 weeks. I will hit a losing run soon but Boots And Spurs has paid for that, when it comes. And it will come. But at the moment my ‘subjective’ eyes are working ok and with any luck these notes give you more options, even if just something of interest to read. On we go. Dixon is forgiven for beating us at Brighton! 

Enjoy your Sunday.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

4.50 Kemp – Better Days (m1/3/4/5)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Video.. for those of you who like such things. I am going to have some muggy/interest bets on Volt Face, (3.40 K- Edmunds/Williams horses also interesting), Upbeat Cobbler (4.50 K) and Coiste Bodhar (3.40 S).. video explains why… this will go one of two ways you suspect!

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Josh few week ago i mentioned about Ryan Moore riding at Group One courses,started recording on 23 September avoiding Odds On.
    September 25 bets 5 winners at Betfair Exchange SP 15.4,4.67,3.13,2.19,6.86.£10 win bets +62.25
    October 34 bets 8 winners at BFEX SP 2.35,8.91,5.77,5.27,4.68,2.85,7.40,5.43.£10 win bets +77.97
    William Buick after his return to the saddle started recording on 13 October avoiding Odds On
    9 bets 2 winners at BFEX SP 17.00,4.17.£10 win bets +117.32.
    I am not computer lit so are their any one who can go through the seasons results to see if this is profitable over the year.
    Another jockey who rides the Arabs best horses is A Atzeni noticed he had a 25/1 winner the other week.
    Cheers

    colin leafe 22/10/17 10:59 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin, those are some decent results in recent weeks… what are you classing as the group 1 courses… I am assuming those that have G1 races!.. so Ascot /Donny / Epsom/Goodwood/Hayd / Newbury /Newmarket (both / Sandown / York… Curragh / Leopardstown ?
      Josh

      Josh 22/10/17 11:04 AM Reply


      • Josh they are the courses all the results are from those courses but it could be expanded to certain grade two courses such as Chester Festival meeting along with Ayr Gold Cup meeting mainly where there is top prize money the top jockeys want to win and they ride the best horses.
        Another area which could be explored is National Hunt top jocks at grade one courses,two jocks to be weary of are Richard Johnson and Noel Fehily only because of their age and future retirements for both are in the early forties and the nature of the game to the body they both must retire soon.
        Cheers

        colin leafe 22/10/17 11:57 AM Reply


        • Yep, I am not one to go too deep into jockeys, keeping on top of all the trainer angles tough enough! I am finding some ‘CD jockeys’ to follow over the winter. The issue with jockeys is that their results are usually linked to certain trainers, or owners. The likes of Moore, Frankie, Buick, given who they ride for/owners, will invariably do well, or not, depending on how the trainers go that season. Certainly merit to a track by track, festival by festival, approach… Atzeni at Donny St Leger would be the prime example from this year.

          I did start looking, and Buick stood out… but you can just look at all tracks, non major races, maidens/handicaps only, 12 or more runners,
          Since 2015 the stats are impressive but 13% win sr or so, it is 2017 where things have really had lift off…

          24/62,35p, +125, +190 BFSP

          In total for C Appleby, 26/90,47p, +95, +135 … if he had a bad year for whatever reason, clearly Buick would too. In 2017 Appleby is 16/34,21p, +80, +105 within those stats above. So he has had 8 winners not for Appleby, worth +85 BFSP. That is all tracks, there isn’t really one where he does poorly.

          That year stands out by a mile. I do think he may be getting better as a pilot, and certainly judging pace in those big fields- may be a case that he operates best in well run races for example, or steels many from front. But, mainly decent prices, esp handicaps. And the fact Appleby has been getting better in recent years.
          So, that is an angle to track next year, could just be an anomaly, but they generally go off bigger prices than they should be.

          Josh

          Josh 22/10/17 12:17 PM Reply


          • What about Frankie on a Saturday? That must have gone well in recent months? Re Jockeys, the best jockeys tend to get the best rides. On the flat Ryan Moore and Frankie must be in front of the others and then SDS and Atzeni. Over the jumps Dickie J on his own and then I think Noel Fehily and Paddy Brennan. I am not a fan of STD myself.

            martin colwell 22/10/17 1:24 PM Reply


            • What about Frankie!been an outstanding jockey and a great ambassador for the sport over the years,and one night in the pub 30 plus years ago a non punting friend said if i backed horses would look no further than Frankie when he his riding for the boys in blue,only taken me 30 years to start recording them!!!
              Will record next season
              R Moore
              W Buick
              A Atzeni
              L Dettori
              Grade One courses with selected grade two meetings avoiding odds on where ever possible.

              colin leafe 22/10/17 1:59 PM Reply


  • 15.40 Kempton BACK BY MIDNIGHT
    Is a huge price for this race considering he seems to have a lot in his favour – small field, good ground and not a galloping track – if we combine these 3 elements his record reads: 5111(defeat came in maiden hurdle). The concern is that he likes to get his head in front and there are other pace angles in this race namely Bravvos and Marracudja. At the price I am willing to risk
    1/2 pt win 20/1 Bet365

    David Peat 22/10/17 11:26 AM Reply


  • Good morning all, my 1st message since joining a few weeks back and really enjoying on here, your notes, qualifiers videos etc are top notch Josh and are proving very valuable and profitable for me ATM and long may it continue, but unfortunately you know a dry spell could be round, but that’s where discipline and having banks put to one side play an integral part.
    Must say also other members comments are very good also and hopefully when I finish work in just over a month I can also play my part, as I will have a lot more time.
    Keep up the good work Guys and good luck.

    Lui.

    Lui 22/10/17 11:27 AM Reply


    • Morning Lui, thanks for posting. Yep all going well at the moment, but there will be plenty of losers ahead, the game isn’t this easy. The notes, for example, given odds, a 10-15% win SR would be profitable over time and more expected, so I expect a shocking, 20-40 losers, run soon. But with any luck when one or two approaches/strategies hit the buffers, others step up. And with any luck plenty may be playing with bookies cash when those runs come! But, point of these odds etc is that it doesn’t take many winners to snap out of a losing run/back into profit, etc.
      All members thoughts always welcome in these parts,
      Josh

      Josh 22/10/17 11:46 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I noticed you mentioned a VW November system the other day, I tried looking for it on this site but couldn’t seem to find it. Any pointers? Cheers.
    Matt M

    Matt m 22/10/17 12:06 PM Reply


    • So impatient Matt haha, I will dust it off this week.. it is around somewhere…
      Ah yep, in the free reports and systems tab, a few pages in…

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/10/28/venetia-williams-lets-pay-for-christmas/

      I looked at it/updated last year, but will bring it up to date inc 2016s stats. It was another profitable year, may need tinkering, we shall see.
      Josh

      Josh 22/10/17 12:09 PM Reply


      • Thanks for that Josh. I’m looking forward to getting involved, I’ll have a look through it now, do you post up the horses that qualify on the free /members page or with these do we need to keep a look out ourselves for any qualifiers? Thanks again.
        Matt M

        Matt M 22/10/17 12:26 PM Reply


        • That one, along with Kerry Lee, Tom George, Sat trainer/jock combo (Hobbs/Johnson), and couple others are all posted on free blog. They always have been and I don’t like removing stuff from free side for members etc. She is due a dud year but the win at Carlisle in the week suggests nothing has changed- she has been able to train/get fit at home, in the normal way. So, it may be same again. Not impossible it brings in another 25-50 points, which always helps!
          Josh

          Josh 22/10/17 12:30 PM Reply


          • Hopefully it pays for some beers over the Xmas period.
            Your hard work is much appreciated.

            Matt M

            Matt M 22/10/17 12:48 PM Reply


            • That’s what it’s about,a couple of trips to the pub will be paid for with any luck, to £2.50, £5 bets. Time will tell. i can’t believe it keeps pulling in the profit, but it does. That’s what i’m here for.
              Josh

              Josh 22/10/17 12:57 PM Reply


  • TODAY’S TRACKER
    JAY KAY 1:30 southwell
    Bidding for a hatrick. Up in weight down in class also likes the surface.
    He’s a bit short in the market. But should be in with a shout today.

    Warren bottomley 22/10/17 12:14 PM Reply


  • Race Trace qualifier today is NTD’s Better Days in the 4.50 Kempton 2/3 wins in the race for Nigel including the last two. Seems to have been backed a bit around 100/30.

    Andy N 22/10/17 1:21 PM Reply


    • Well played Andy. Clearly a plan and fully explains the last run..trip pos too short..in any case got outpaced/plugged on..but now would appear he also wasn’t a1, with a target in mind. There was plenty of 3s about..hopefully test zone backers dived in and ignored my views on Upbeat Cobbler..market spoke there..close to a nice return with the first one but not to be. Onto tomorrow.

      Josh 22/10/17 5:04 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh – I’ll keep posting the qualifiers.

        Andy N 22/10/17 5:24 PM Reply


        • Please do. Decent logical info..and that’s 1/1 for such types that hit some stats on this page also! I did email Chris at HRB and he is going to look at some options for similar info. So we shall see. Keep up the good work.

          Josh 22/10/17 5:39 PM Reply


  • Thanks very much Andy

    Aaron L 22/10/17 6:20 PM Reply


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