Members Daily Post: 21/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ascot

4.30 –

GM Hopkins (all hncps) 30 18/1 2nd 20/1 

Linguistic (all hncps + micro age) 30 20/1 UP

 

Catterick

4.05 –

Ray’s The Money (all hncps) I3 12/1 UP

Sellingallthetime (micro dist) H3 

4.40 –

God Willing (3yo+) 14 I3 14/1 3rd 14/1>11/2 

Boots And Spurs (micro going) 25/1 (33/1 PP/BV) WON 25/1> 12/1 

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Stratford

2.30 –

Giveaway Glance (hncp hurdle) I3 8/1 2nd 11/1 

Miss Night Owl (m2) H3 I3 G1 7/2  S4 (monitoring) WON 7/2 

5.45 – Global Thrill (m1) 14  H3 I3 11/2  WON 11/2>4/1 

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen

3.25 –

Blue Comet (m1) H3 I1 G3 2/1  S4 (monitoring)  WON 2/1 (25p R4)> 6/4>5/4 

Red Rising (m2)  H1 11/4 

4.35 – Ready Token (m2) G3 4/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

 

Ffos Las 

4.25 – Clyne (m2) 14  ES  H1 G3 7/4  S3 , (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 2nd 

5.00-

Abbey Grey (m1) 14 I3 9/2 UP

Jonagold (m1) 14  H1 I1 7/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (22/102, +97.5)

NOTES

Linguistic –  UP I will have something on this one at a nice price. He is only 0/2,1p in handicaps so is lightly enough raced in this sphere with the hope that there could be more to come one day. Also of interest was that Johnny G (aka ‘Sir’ John Gosden) runs this one withing 7 days of his last start. Gosden is 3/6,4p, +20 with such types in the last 2 years. This is also the third run back since a break and it could be he is about to peak, having run ok the last day. At least he arrives in form. The questions, built into he price, are the going (has won on GS, this an unknown) and the trip. He does look a 10f horse but there is every chance this trip takes some getting here today. There doesn’t seem much pace on paper in this, albeit I thought that for the last big handicap here and they went a hell of a pace, but if Buick is switched on he should be up there for me- esp as they know the horse stays further. Anyway, at 20s he was worth a nibble.

Boots And SpursWON 33/1>25/1> 12/1  I couldn’t resist a tickle on this one at big prices either. He drops down to C4 from C2 which caught the eye, and he didn’t run too badly LTO. He has dropped another 5lb so he is now below his last winning mark, and gets the 7lb off again from a decent jockey. Dixon may be about to come into form, having had a winner at Brighton in the week (annoying for us,as he beat our 20/1>7/1 poke) and this one looks no forlorn hope. He has some very consistent form on soft, at around this trip,and has won at a higher class. (C3) He has yet to win at the track but has placed twice from three starts and there is every chance he races up there – he could even try and lead. He stays 8f so if thereabout early on, and as they swing in, it could get quite exciting. He could just be out of form and clearly isn’t ‘unexposed’,but you will find many worse 25/1+ shots to back today. An interesting runner. (I don’t think God Willing has much of a chance, and I won’t count him in the notes results whatever he does, but knowing me i will have £2 on nose BFSP just in case…his trainer is in form which caught my eye to a point)

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That’s it for today. All the jumpers look on the short side to my eyes, although with any luck a winner or two in there for the odd strategy.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

2.10 FL – Angels Antics (m1, 22/1<)

5.35 FL – Sartenes Son (m1, 22/1<

3.00 Strat – Bristol De Mai (m1/4/5

 

Jockey CD

4.30 Ascot – Gabrial (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Now I don’t know how hard it easy it is to set up. But just for fun a poll on the runners of the big race at the weekends the one with the most prestige of prize money just the one race at the weekends. I quite liked the polls Josh did last week and a bit of interactivity generally creates a bit more banter. I don’t really have a dabble in the big meetings anymore been burnt to many times. But it is interesting how big races split opinions. I for one would look forward to vote on a Saturday or Sundays big race. ☺

    Warren bottomley 21/10/17 12:06 AM Reply


    • Very easy to set up Warren… what big race do you want me to pick out from Ascots card?? Could do a couple in free post for interest. Albeit need to create a shortlist rather than list all runners for some races. I just need to get into habit of doing then. Let me rattle through any thoughts on section 1 etc and will do something

      Josh 21/10/17 8:05 AM Reply


      • I see a poll on the free post. awesome.
        The feature race at the weekend meetings would be a good place to start.
        but any race that may be interesting.

        warren bottomley 21/10/17 3:26 PM Reply


  • 3-20 FL Kimberlite Candy is in my sporting life stable think it was a one to watch, getting old memory is going but it’s there for a reason so i’ll have £2 @ 15-2

    martin whittle 21/10/17 12:56 AM Reply


    • Funny you should mention kimberlight candy as it’s on my tracker too and I too do not quite know why I put it there but like you i guess it was for a reason.

      Warren bottomley 21/10/17 1:08 AM Reply


      • It’s one of Stu’s h/c’s to follow. As it’s a beg chase would assume just a run out but plenty coinage going on. Trip and going fine as per notes.

        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 21/10/17 8:54 AM Reply


  • Hi, KIMBERLITE CANDY is from Ben’s stable of ones to watch for this season. 9.0 with b365 GL

    Solent 21/10/17 6:36 AM Reply


  • The 4 horses running today (from the book and update 1) all have negatives to them so nothing of any interest from me today. I will be watching the 15.00 Stratford with interest to see how Semtegal (111 – 121 days+) and Bristol De Mai fare against last weeks easy winner Romain de Senam. Sorry for no post yesterday work sometimes gets in the way of my hobby.

    David Peat 21/10/17 7:06 AM Reply


    • I keep coming back to Cody Wyoming 17.00 Ffos Las and although the galloping track is a concern (0 wins from 14) and is what put me off in the first place
      I have had a look at his chase profile and on GTS and soft ground when racing in Class 4 races in fields of 8 runners or less off a rating of 117 or less and that reads: 11211 (+8.95 points)
      I am going to risk 1/2 pt win (maybe a big mistake) but after putting to much much emphasis on the ground for Actinpieces yesterday I don’t want history to repeat itself

      David Peat 21/10/17 10:43 AM Reply


  • Only 1 for the Unexposed NH Distance Movers today:

    3.35 Stratford – Vive Le Roi 9/1

    Running p&l -7 pts

    JamesP 21/10/17 10:30 AM Reply


  • JamesP

    What criteria do you use to select your list of trainers? For example, how does Longsdon get shortlisted?

    Steve

    Steve 21/10/17 11:05 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve

      Well my approach to selecting trainers is based on ROI and A/E results in HRB over 4 and 2 years worth of data. In short i have shortlisted trainers that have either a positive ROI of 20% + A/E over 1 over the last 2 years or a smaller roi but steady i.e each year is positive, over 4 years.

      In the case of Charlie Longston he is in the former camp, with a healthy ROI the last 2 years. However if you look over 4 years he’s actually in negative ROI with his NH distance movers. It maybe a too smaller sample but i want to make sure i catch any changes to trainer strategy more quickly and not have to wait 4 years for the effects to filter through to the strategy.

      jamesp 21/10/17 5:32 PM Reply


      • JamesP

        Thanks for that. As advised previously I think you’re onto something but, for me, perhaps need to dig a little deeper. Looking specifically at Charlie Longsdon handicap hurdle qualifiers over the last 4 years (three full and the current season) puts your research into a totally different perspective. This simply by breaking qualifiers down by Race Type.

        I would think individual trainers specialise in different types of race within the boundaries of your criteria (some better with chasers, some better with hurdlers and/or some better with young horses, etc) and there might be merit in breaking down the results further before betting them.

        Just my thoughts. Good luck going forward.

        Steve 21/10/17 7:45 PM Reply


        • Completely agree Steve, but the problem then is I will have to build micros out for all trainers dependant on class, grade, distance, going etc as Josh already does, rather than a catch all system which was the initial intention. My feeling at this point is that it maybe optimistic to have a general system and maybe this system is to just flag qualifiers for further analysis to find those micro angles with daily analysis, or i will have to go down the micro root and build it out for each trainer and do the research up front.

          JamesP 22/10/17 12:11 AM Reply


          • JamesP

            Key to this game is avoiding losers as well as backing winners.

            I have saved your criteria as a ‘general’ system collectively for chosen trainers and HRB delivers the qualifiers as you are aware. It is then a simple process (two minutes tops per qualifier) to go into your general system, breakdown by trainer, extract the trainer under review and breakdown further by Race Type. Longsdon is a good example of where speciality exists under your criteria but away from handicap hurdles and determining this pre bet will save you a lot of losers along the way. Of course this daily probing also highlights where you can maximise bets on the strong qualifiers (if weak in one area must be very strong in another).

            All good systems require flexibility as stats are rarely as they initially seem when they’re truly opened out.

            Steve 22/10/17 11:19 AM Reply


  • Prefer to watch most of Ascot today and look elsewhere for a few selections … took the 7/1 b365 last night on Mackenzies friend MR 2.50 , 1st run for new yard was clearly too short on wrong ground , down 5lb with claimer thrown into the mix another 7lb, back up in trip on more suitable surface , thought it was worth an interest .
    Found 2 worthy of close inspection 5.45 Strat Sandy Cove (took 15/2 B365) will need the rain to stay clear or im sure it will get pulled , Chilli Romance 20/1 e/w was the other ..ratings dropper , had a break and could just out run her price .
    Fillydelph 5.10 catt 28/1 b365 , won twice over course , upped in trip .. looked too big at this price
    Good Luck all

    joners 21/10/17 1:06 PM Reply


  • picked a good day to start backing all NOTES picks, BOOTS AND SPURS won, got 20to1

    pendrem 21/10/17 4:52 PM Reply


    • it’s taken this long haha. Yep, not a bad day to start, the losers are due after this run. But, the subjective eyes working ok at the moment. 33s was with PP/BV for a while, 20s/25s generally plenty. 20s a decent price. Well done.

      Josh 21/10/17 4:53 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh,few beers paid for on boots and spurs

        Dee 21/10/17 4:59 PM Reply


        • You must drink a lot of beer Dee haha. Well done, glad you had a piece, that price was silly.

          Josh 21/10/17 5:01 PM Reply


      • My 1st dip too – gonna have to have a weekend warrior with work spoiling things during the week – got a nice Price Boost from Mr William Hill for Boots & Spurs! Takeaway’s on me tonight!

        Paulo 21/10/17 7:55 PM Reply


  • oh how I laughed when I decided to skip the 80.0 on offer for for Patricks Park in the 5:00 at Ffos Las and just throw a few quid at a place instead……………..pass me a bucket please

    Chris Albin 21/10/17 5:18 PM Reply


    • Ah, yes, in truth there are no words of consolation there.. pat yourself on back for picking him out in first place, and then get straight back to the bucket..or get on the beers/wine, a good short term fix! We have all been there…well, can’t say I have picked out many in that price range, but many a dodged £5/£10 on a 25/1! Awful.

      Josh 21/10/17 5:35 PM Reply


  • You are really back in the groove again Josh,keeping it simple and not overthinking

    gearoid180468 21/10/17 5:27 PM Reply


    • Yep, very true..think my flat racing brain is about 10x better than it was last year, and probably 4 months ago in truth. Working well at the moment anyway.

      Josh 21/10/17 5:36 PM Reply


      • Wow.

        Warren bottomley 21/10/17 5:49 PM Reply


        • 10x probably an exaggeration, but is has definitely improved, look at the horses a bit different and shackles off mentally. It is all in the mind though, when you are out of form you don’t pick out those as above. Funny old game. But 130 odd points in 7 weeks is a bit barmy, i would kind of take that over 12 months for that section haha. We shall see if we can keep it ticking along. Those biggies make a real difference come year end.

          Josh 21/10/17 5:53 PM Reply


  • Ha ha Josh,you just made it worse/better ? Global thrill romps it thanks again.more beer ??

    Dee 21/10/17 5:52 PM Reply


    • Always better Dee, just clear the diary for the first half of tomorrow!! Well done. He received a lovely ride there.

      Josh 21/10/17 6:01 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, what a shout with Boots and Spurs – when my main issue is being annoyed for backing something EW (rare) rather than on the nose then it’s been a good day! I’m new around here and have to say win or lose the notes/rationale behind each bet is both educational and insightful, cheers!

    Jon S 21/10/17 6:20 PM Reply


    • Hi Jon, cheers, much appreciated… yep, I am a win only punter generally, esp when betting anything under £10. I must admit to backing that winner EW as a quarter 3 places, 33s, looked tempting even to my eyes and I got bullish enough where I had enough on to make the place worthwhile. But, in general, win is best.. certainly from when I looked at various results earlier in the year- on the strategies, I don’t think we hit enough big priced/placed horses to make it worthwhile. Maybe the notes are different but win only it is for results- albeit whatever you follow keeping some records can always be useful.
      I get the EW argument, esp mentally and keeping long losing runs down. But, each to their own. No right or wrong, and very much personal preference.. yes I can say you would win X by backing win only.. but if you long stopped backing those horses due to odd barren win run, then it’s irrelevant..whereas odd EW return can keep some ‘in the game’.

      Anyway, that makes up for my Dixon beating us at Brighton earlier in the week! I’ll forgive him now.
      On we go,
      Josh

      Josh 21/10/17 6:25 PM Reply


      • Yep, for me I am almost exclusively win only but just seem to bottle it on Saturday biggish field handicaps! I got 28s on boots so can’t complain but a new resolve to stick to my guns from now on!

        Jon S 21/10/17 7:26 PM Reply


  • Well been quiet past few weeks, just had things ticking. I have to say been quit a day got 25’s for boots and a very nice overall profit on the day. The high light of the day though, as to be Town rolling over Man U 🙂 bring on your lot next Josh 😉

    Gavin 21/10/17 10:20 PM Reply


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