Free Daily Post: 20/10/17 (complete)

a day off today..

Nothing today, no system quals etc… a day off.

GL with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. stayers race at Ascot interests me.
    45 mph winds and heavy rain are forecast for the whole day
    so conditions are going to be tough

    Big Orange is basically a much better horse on faster ground
    so if the rains come as predicted I think he could be struggling

    Order Of St George blew out in this race last year after running well in the arc
    and this year could be the same and 11/10 looks way short enough on what could be pretty testing
    ground

    Stradivarius has been running consistently and if he holds his form of his St Ledger
    3rd would have a great chance.

    of the three Stradivarius looks a fair e/w play as the favourite and Big orange could both run below
    Par.

    With all of them having fairly hard seasons and tomorrows race set to be run
    in a gale with lashing rain it isn’t that far fetched that a rank outsider
    goes close

    1. just looking at the card myself Peter, in the long distance i like Duretto ew @ 11-1 proven in heavy,
      2-00. Harry Angel looks difficult to oppose but at evens it’s not for me and i’ll have a small ew on Tasleet @ 14-1 who might get a bit closer this time.

      1. Harry Angel is 0 for 3 at Ascot. Do you think he will cope with the stiff track? I am on Caravaggio each way at 9/2 for a sizeable amount. At evens Harry Angel does not appeal. Hopefully Caravaggio has a going day?
        Re the stayers, Order of St George, he seems a better horse this season than last. Nothing wrong with Stradivarius’s form and he gets age allowances. Will a staying battle suit him though. Big Orange may not be quick enough over the distance but will serve it up.
        In the handicap I like Dark Red, who cam back to form LTO with headgear on.

        1. if the Royal Ascot Caravaggio turns up then he has a great chance
          stall 12 could be an advantage if Ryan has him sheltered from the cross wind
          by the pack
          he should have plenty left final furlong.
          Harry Angel in 9 has a reasonable chance of shelter so
          has every chance on paper but 11/10 into a gale doesn’t appeal
          0-3 at Ascot is a real dampener as well and
          how a three year old will cope running into a gale is also a question mark.

          9/2 e/w seems a very reasonable bet
          hope the real Caravaggio comes to the party for you.

          lay now back later Harry angel may be the play as I think the bookies may see a few
          cracks in his cv and let him out a bit

    2. Had a long hard look at that race and agree about Duretto on the likely Going but hard to ignore never been 2 miles and will be a big ask to do it here unless they “dawdle” first mile which is a possibility and could play in to his hands. I think Andrew Balding could have “an interesting day” tomorrow!

      Of the ones not at the head of the market the only one proven at the trip and in heavy is old Clever Cookie but he looks markedly regressive unless Mr Course Specialist Jamie Spencer could conjure something up on him!

      1. heart says would be great if Gosden won it and 7/1 might be great e/w poke and the other nice one to win would be Torcedor who has some form in yielding but lots to find with the favourite for the wonderful cuddly Mrs Harrington!

      2. Ribchester could be vulnerable if it really hammers down.

        but I think the main factor with all tomorrow racing is
        the winds.
        at 45-50mph it may be untraceable at some tracks
        NH racing in those sort of winds is highly dangerous and could be cancelled

        if racing does go ahead at Ascot the form book may go out the window as
        those sort of gusts can freak out some horses
        in the wild they would be seeking shelter rather than running.

        Any one betting form tomorrow could be scuppered
        before the race even starts.

        A tactic they may be tried. lay any debutant at 6/1 or less
        or any horse who is showing signs of agitation pre race at 6/1 or less
        at any track where the wind is strong
        the wind may totally kill an inexperienced/Frightened horses chances

        1. I think Ribchester outclasses them if running his race. The wind is blowing a bit in the South East now and it rained a bit last night but the ground is still good. Save bets until the day I guess?

        2. Another thought.
          Will front runners be at a major disadvantage if they are
          running head on into a 45mph wind?

          if the wind is behind will it be an advantage to have a gale behind you in front?

          could have a baring on the distances races as well
          if they run into a head wind in the straight then the doubtful stayers are in trouble
          tail wind and they may get home

          1. YES I would say it would be a disadvantage. Weather can make things a lottery. I am on Cracksman ante post at 4/1 and a bit of mud should slow the others down. I have laid off at 7/4 now we have the non runners so I have a free bet. What about Brametot? He ran well in the ARC.

  2. Ascot straight runs from East to West and the gale are coming from
    the south west.
    —–/—————————
    —/——————————
    /
    / wind direction

    So horses close to the stand rail are going to get the worst of it
    in the distance races
    anything sweeping wide into the straight to come with a late run
    will get hammered by the crosswind
    This fact makes me very strongly against Order Of St George
    who comes with a late run on the outside and should be hit with the strongest gusts

    Anything trying to make all down the stand side will get hammered by the wind
    in the shorter races

  3. 715 Newcastle Krebs cycle @6 and 2.2 w/p for me. Gd track sire stats. Trainer has gd place stats here. 3/12 9place. Not gone up for a 2nd over CD in similar race and on actual weight carry 2lb less. Jock is gd over cd. Draw looks a bit of a neg but still think the price is fair and should run our race.

  4. Racing Post new weather feature is excellent – a 60-90 second video crucially shows wind spped and direction and advised if head/tail/cross wind; relative to track.

    1. Ian – great to see your patience and low key/quality tips only strategy this week pay off; a day after Derintoher Yank at 9/1 we get Orbasa at 8/1; great stuff at moment from Josh and yourself; thanks both!

    2. Yep, top work today Ian, paid for my unplanned train ticket this morning back from London town! Cheers. A decent two days.

      1. Hopefully paid for some headache tablets too LOL.

        I’m a massive PFN fan so great to see what looked like a bit of a plan come off, had been a bit of a rogue that horse but clearly ability always there (wonder if a famous PFN wind op?)

        Out of curiosity (been ages since I’ve been a long distance train and when I did work in London was all paid for) what happened to ticket you presumably purchased last night ?, or didn’t you get that far?…

        1. Oh i brought an advanced one earlier in the week/set time, not the type of ticket you can get away with using if missing that train, would have had to pay again, so just had to buy another..buy 3x the price, open return was the same as a single so got one of those. We shall see if i get back down within the month! Head has just about cleared, early night will sort it.

      2. Well done Ian, as your only bet of the day I had to back it at 6/1. My only other bet today is Viva La Difference in the 4.20 RED. Not much else today, saving ammo for tomorrow if we are not all blown away by Hurricane Brian (not that scary a name).

  5. Hi Guys, A good while since I posted hope your all well, an interesting contender in the 6.30pm at Dundalk this evening Aiden O’Brien runs Cenotaph currently 8/1 his record in 7F handicaps at the track in the last 12 months is 3 runs, 2 wins, 2 places and the sire War Front’s progeny have a terrific record of 22 runs,10 wins,18 places all pointing to a good run this evening at at 8/1 looks a solid bet to me…..all the best Steve

  6. This is currently just a rumour, will try to corroborate. Can’t find on BHA site (where it is supposed to be).

    Ascot will consider a false rail final 3 furlongs of home straight stands side, reducing width of sprint/straight track as much as safety considerations allow to effective funnel horses to far side rail (inside next to NH track).

    This is a health and safety consideration IF winds exceed 40mph to reduce risk of any debris coming from stands on to stand side rail in area where stand is and also the grass paddocks (assume they will be smart enough to take away anything not 100% secure – like benches etc.

    Of course there comes a point when you’d have to abandon (Fairyhouse inspecting in morning) but if this was implemented could have huge impact on draw???

    I suppose its a bit like when do you call off a soccer or cricket match as conditions render a competitive game impossible and border on farce and unsafe?…

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