Members Daily Post: 18/10/17 (complete)

S1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Nottingham

4.05 –

Stoney Broke (all hncps) H3 I1  7/1  S2, S6 UP

Return Ace (all hncps) 10/1 UP

Satisfy (all hncps) 14 G3 12/1  UP

4.40 –

Tahoo (all hncps) 14. H1 I3 20/1 S2, S6   WON 20/1, 28/1 BFSP 

Invincible Ridge (3yo+, micro TJC) I3 G3 14/1 UP

Appleberry (micro TJC/class) ES 8/1  S3  UP

Ocelot (micro age) 16/1 UP

5.15 –

Jabbarockie (3yo+, + micro TJC) H3 10/1 WON 10/1>5/1 

Ambitious Icarus (micro dist) ES I3 9/1 S3 UP

Lady Joanna Vassa (micro dist) ES I3

 

JUMPS

Wetherby

4.20 –

Nautical Nitwit (m2) H3 I1 G3 7/2  S4 (being monitored)(S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)  2nd 

Minstrel Royal (m2) I3 G3 7/1    (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

5.25 –

Cornbrough (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 16/1  S2 UP

Topville Ben (m1+m2) I3 G3 11/1  S1, S2 UP

Sakhees City (m1) G3 12/1   S1, S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/76,27p, -7.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/149, +16.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (20/98, +82)

NOTES

SatisfyUP the 4.05 started to give me a headache but I do want to have a go at this one for a couple of reasons… she has only had 6 runs in her life, comes here in form having run ok the last day, and ‘does something different’, namely stepping up in trip. She does go up in class and may not be good enough, hard to say, but does at least have a G3. The factor was the form of her trainer. Burke is 8/35,11p in the last 14 days. Given her price I was happy to have a dart. I don’t like multiple qualifiers in races as there is every chance I have highlighted the wrong one! But, this one, to my subjective eyes, looked most interesting.

JabbarockieWON 15/2>5/1 I think he was backed LTO in the notes and a couple of us had a chat about the draw etc- that day at Redcar there appeared to be a low draw bias on the straight track, as is the way there quite often I believe. Looking back, he did best of those drawn 11+, possibly running on a slow part of the track. In any case, he is only 0/2 in handicaps so we have that ‘hope’ element, that one day he will show more in this sphere. What is he doing different? Well he drops from C5 to C6, that caught the eye. And it would appear high draws have struggled at Notts recently so no concerns on that front. He should blast out and be prominent, in the right place. He has been nibbled at as I was pondering so we shall see. I would like to think he will run his race and 8/1-10/1 looked fair enough, given his profile.

Top Ville BenUP no doubt the market may guide,(albeit from memory with a few of his here last season it/connections didn’t have a clue!) and it would be easy to be scared off by the three at the top of the market. But, you can make some sort of case, he is a decent price, and it’s that simple. No need to over-think things too much. He is having his second run for the trainer and second run after a break. He ran very well on the flat LTO and he could come on for that. The trainer books STD for the first time since 2015 as well. Not sure if that is a positive sign/intent, whether Dowson had the pick, etc. But, I don’t think it is a negative. The horse makes handicap hurdle debut also. Kirby is 2/8 with those types at Wetherby. Again he has some supporting ‘ratings pointer’ evidence, to suggest what he has done is ok against ‘the figures’. He looked the most interesting of the three to me and we know what happens now!

I have focussed on those with ‘unexposed/doing something different’ profiles that looked most interesting to my eyes and I suppose in my head I don’t want to be putting up more than 3 horses max in any ‘notes’- it helps concentrate the mind….

Remember, the lack of mention of other horses is not a negative to their chance as such, and clearly systematic strategy followers won’t be paying too much attention- the point of systems is to take away such subjective anguish, but, you can use that info how you please.

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Re-cap.. I wonder if Squiggley was named after said symbol that Timeform use! She looked a tricky ride and didn’t run too well really. Not one to trust I don’t think.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

3.15 Weth – Atlantic Grey (m1 22/1<) 3rd

4.55 Weth – Little Pop (m1 22/1<) 2nd

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NOTEBOOK HORSES

I had a look back at the racing from Chepstow over the weekend and a few horses caught my eye… two in particular. Id be interested to hear what any of you think when watching back the Silver Trophy (G3 handicap hurdle)… with eyes fixed on Old Guard and River Frost…

River Frost… well I may fall of my seat if he doesn’t go close to winning a big handicap hurdle this season. He looks like a handicap plot job… the ride he received here didn’t look great but there may well be excuses. I suspect he could have gone very very close to winning this. It all looked a bit strange. It looked as if there was plenty left in the tank and it will be interesting to keep tabs on him this season. He looked well handicapped here to my eye. Watch the race with eyes on him, especially up the home straight. Almost too obvious I felt, which may mean there wasn’t much too it at all! But, there is more to come for sure.

Old Guard… I thought he may have received a sympathetic ride also. In truth it was his first run back and he may have been out-paced for a time up the straight. But, he certainly wasn’t given a hard time here and finished quite well I thought. I suspect they may have a target in mind, probably back at Cheltenham at one of their next two meetings. He may drop a couple of pounds from this but looks like he could go well again from this mark, esp with a useful claim. One to keep an eye on.

We can keep an eye on those two and see how they go on their next few starts. I can’t think many missed them but who knows.

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From yesterday…

David Peat’s Horse Profiles

YOU CAN READ THIS PDF HERE>>>

(password:  Profiles17   – Capital P – )

David’s Weekly Update

YOU CAN READ THIS WEEK’S HERE>>>

 

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EXPERIMENT >>>

You may have noticed some new symbols in Section 1.    S followed by a number. S = Strategy and with any luck it is obvious enough… they simply relate to the different ‘advised strategies’ as per the links in the Key. One of you got in touch with the idea which I hadn’t really thought of, but it sounded sensible to me. And a couple of new members emailed separately wanting confirmation of what hits what etc. So, hopefully that helps. When the flat stops and there is no cross over it should become more straight forward/second nature. I will aim to add them on the morning of racing, after I have added the odds in.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, you’ll kick yourself haha

    4.05 Stoney Broke (all Hc’s)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 17/10/17 6:18 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, I’m just going to smile at that one… and they were right next to each other.. I have no idea what goes through my head sometimes… must have been distracted again!
      cheers, Josh

      Josh 17/10/17 6:30 PM Reply


  • This game can be soooo frustrating, i’m following NTD runners at the moment, as per josh’s sept and oct micros. Had a great start, but things have dried up over recent days, was happy to have a go today as although not having winners in the last few days ,he has had many places. Today, 7 runners with most of them hitting the micros criteria decided to bet chronologically, Ballypoint -PU, Whiskey Moon -last?, Southport PU, Snobbery-last?, gave up at this point as(0 from 19ish at this point) i thought there must be something wrong at the stable. Bang- in goes Wicked willy unbacked ! soooo frustrating. At least i didnt back the other 2.

    jamesm 17/10/17 7:23 PM Reply


    • I am not a fan of NTD, seems a bit overrated to me. Just my view over the years.

      A couple of early birds for Wednesday – 1.50 KP, Sulafaat, won LTO and the 2nd has franked the form, 100/30 now. 5.25 WET, Utility, Jonjo, good solid form and 7/1 looks value.

      martin colwell 17/10/17 8:45 PM Reply


  • No joy today for my NH unexposed distance movers, one for tomorrow:

    4.55 – Today Please 4/1

    running p&l -4

    Had a look at first time runs for new trainers and it didnt have much of an impact for my trainer set so have left that in, also looked at removing those with a previous win in the NH type to focus in on unexposed non-winners but that actually lowered the roi surprisingly so have left that in.

    Jamesp 17/10/17 8:44 PM Reply


  • Watch kateson on the Sunday.. I think it will improve.. To me ran needing education.. Otherwise what a fantastic site and service…

    Dan Boulton 17/10/17 9:00 PM Reply


    • Cheers Dan,
      Yep will be interesting to see how these early season bumper races work out over time. I want to do a big of digging into the Lacey yard as they are profitable to LSP albeit the market will cotton on no doubt. There MO generally is not to keep horses for too long and to sell them if finding buyers… I need to look into that, as that is a big part of their business… they are a selling yard that trains it would seem. As such, it is in their benefit to advertise them well, but ensuring they get wins out of them.
      Josh

      Josh 18/10/17 10:40 AM Reply


  • Sorry….. Above is about Chepstow on Sunday… Has gone in my tracker

    Dan Boulton 17/10/17 9:03 PM Reply


  • Not a tip but good to see Ballyalton back on course at Wetherby tomorrow. Fond memories of the 1-2 forcast with Faugheen in the 2014 Neptune. A couple of quid at 10’s for me, and hoping theres some life in those old legs

    Leigh

    Leigh Evans 17/10/17 9:23 PM Reply


    • GL Leigh, yep great to see him back and such memories/attachments to horses are what makes NH stand out really, as well as many other things! He has clearly had some major issues but hopefully Williams can work his magic and get him back into the winners enclosure this season. Has clearly shown enough for all current connections to still be involved- albeit given his Festival exploits you kind of ‘owe’ them some more patience and time I suppose.
      Josh

      Josh 18/10/17 10:42 AM Reply


  • Punchestown has some interesting races tomorrow.
    2.35, Can Campeador make up for his luckless form in his recent starts? Interestingly for me, its not really a big race, considering the two he was probably winning before falling…will he be let off? Who knows but i wouldn’t be rushing for evens considering it would ruin his mark for bigger more valuable handicaps. Forge Meadow might be overpriced in that, if you can forgive her her first run back.
    3.10, Cracking Smart from his 2nd on his Ire debut was straight on my list to watch….and his win was full of potential too. No price and not a bet, but very much looking forward to him. Derrinross probably doesn’t win tomorrow (i said this about a horse today + it did!) but he is interesting going forward. Clearly stays 3miles will handle winter ground.
    4.10 is a nice beginners chase, i find Brelade hard to work out level-wise.Elliot speaks highly of him, and some of his form suggests he could be smart…for me he might be one for handicaps long term. He should be in the same parish as Petit Mouchoir, he is incredibly interesting as he went right to the top over hurdles. He’s only 6 and last year was a massive leap forward from his novice year.Trainer is known for improving them over fences he could be anything.I say that meaning a star or a massive let down….see Identity Thief!

    Will have ATR on in the background at work watching what looks to be an informative day for the notes/trackers.

    Jack 18/10/17 12:05 AM Reply


    • I do enjoy your Irish insights Jack, given I rarely look over the water. I have noted the success of high class novices plundering handicaps at the Festival/running stormers… mainly those that have gone well, without winning, in soft/heavy ground, small field, graded races… they turn up at Chelts / Spring Festivals, on decent ground for first time all year, in properly run races for first time all season, and seemingly have an absolute stack in hand.
      So, in general, that decent small field placed form, in graded novices > into decent ground/big field/fast run handicaps is something that interests me.
      Right, breaking my own ‘thinking about the Festival’ rules there, on the naughty step I go….

      Josh

      Josh 18/10/17 10:48 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh…love my Irish stuff! Plenty of money for Forge Meadow…Gary obrien put her up W/O fav!

        Jack Houston 18/10/17 2:34 PM Reply


  • I think the S1 , S2 etc is a simple but great idea. Hopefully avoid forgetting/missing any of the drifters. Cheers
    Matt M

    Matt M 18/10/17 9:51 AM Reply


    • Yep, hopefully it helps Matt- just need to make sure I am putting the right symbols/notes up!! 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 18/10/17 10:49 AM Reply


  • NO PLANNING – 16.20 Wetherby – interestingly runs over hurdles today – don’t know if trainer is trying to protect chase mark . The horse over hurdles has the following profile. Wetherby: 11P, 3m: 1P, Class 2 and 3: 3 wins from 7 starts, 121 to 365 days: 191P. I will be watching this run with interest for future chase runs

    David Peat 18/10/17 11:42 AM Reply


  • Hi I notice Mrs Smith has 2 interesting ones at Wetherby David, No Planning and Straidahanna running in the 2m 3f chase which I think would be too short. I assume she’s getting a prep into them for a bigger target, Charlie Hall meeting perhaps?

    Paul 18/10/17 11:52 AM Reply


    • Straidnahanna has never ran over such short a distance and like you Paul feel there are bigger prizes in mind. I noticed he was pushed up to the front to give him a blow out – interesting to see where they go on the next run

      David Peat 18/10/17 4:08 PM Reply


  • well nearly completed getting all those profile horses into a tracker with notes.
    just s onwards to go. lol
    todays tracker threw up.
    wetherby.
    2.10 something brewing
    4.20 just milly
    nottingham
    3.05 polar light
    3.35 toulson
    kempton
    5.45 bodybuilder
    7.15 revalue

    these are not tips.
    they have been put on my tracker for various reasons.
    i’ve posted them for everyone to have a look.
    hopefully one of the form wizards who is much better at this than me might spot something.

    warren 18/10/17 11:57 AM Reply


  • I’ve had a couple of bets today. Firstly using my main betting strategy which is using the Race Trace feature in the Racing Post – trainers targeting certain races has proved profitable over the years.
    3.15 Wetherby – Royal Escape. Jonjo has won the race 3 times in the last 5 years from 4 horses. I was surprised to see it at 14-1 last night, but it has been backed into 8-1, which looks a good sign.
    4.55 Wetherby – Degooch – will like the better ground, napped by West Country in RP (3/10), and Farrelly has a good record sending horses this far. Noel Fehily is 6-11 for Farrelly. At 10-1, I’ve backed both and in an ew double.
    My other selection would have been 2.30 Nott Sheikha Reika as Roger Varian is 2-2 in the race, but around evens is too short for me.

    Andy N 18/10/17 1:30 PM Reply


    • GL Andy, trainers targeting certain races is a fascinating area and clearly plenty of merit. I assume Race Trace is for Members only in the RP? I don’t subscribe/use the RP so may need to get digging in HRB- they do have a report for trainers that have entries in races they won last year. That is useful and I should add that into my daily routine, esp for cross referencing with any qualifiers. I may drop HRB a message and see if they can go back 5 years somehow and bring up a report, or add it into the system builder etc. I am sure they may use RP data feed.
      Josh

      p.s by all means do highlight any qualifiers above that hit such criteria, as and when! 🙂

      Josh 18/10/17 1:42 PM Reply


      • Never even heard of Race Trace where is it in the RP ?

        Jack Houston 18/10/17 2:33 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh – the Race Trace feature is in the Signposts section of the paper, which is included in the Ultimate Members package (I’ve currently got a month’s trial). I’ve tried but failed to get that data from any other source. Various websites have previous years’ winners, but not the number of entries and places from specific trainers – eg
    Race trace
    Trainers who have won this race at least twice in last ten seasons, showing
    wins-runs, £1 bet, all finishing positions (latest on right, dash separates years,
    ❖=no runner that year), and today’s runner(s).
    NOTTINGHAM
    2.30 2-2 +£17.50 Roger Varian 1-❖-❖-1…………………………………….Sheikha Reika
    WETHERBY
    3.15 3-4 +£6.33 Jonjo O’Neill 15-❖-1-1-❖ ………………………………….Royal Escape

    So you can see that Jonjo has actually entered 4 horses into this race, two in the same race and has won it each time he has entered.

    Andy N 18/10/17 1:54 PM Reply


    • sorry i hadnt read this reply!

      Jack Houston 18/10/17 2:33 PM Reply


  • wow ! tahoo that was a nice unexpected winner

    steve 18/10/17 4:45 PM Reply


    • Ah, never unexpected in these parts haha- well- you can gather from lack of ‘notes’ mention wasn’t overly confident- but that’s when you just have to trust the stats/ratings pointers/strategies! 20/1, 29.00 BFSP. Lovely.

      Josh 18/10/17 4:48 PM Reply


  • Get in Josh! First day on the strategies and wallop! 28/1 on betfair exchanges for TAHOOOOOOOO!!!!

    paul curran 18/10/17 4:50 PM Reply


    • Well well, you picked a good day to start haha… strange to say but I don’t want the flat to end really, those strategies had a really good couple of months. They pay for plenty of losers and leave a little bit level over! 🙂 Well done.

      Josh 18/10/17 4:51 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh with Tahoo- another strategy 2 winner, BFSP of 29

    Linda 18/10/17 4:53 PM Reply


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