Free Daily Post: 17/10/17 (complete)

TIPS – None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.40 Worc – Spy In The Sky (12/1 or shorter best) 2nd 16/1

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

3.50 Hunt – Agamemmon

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

4.00 Leic – George Villiers

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Horse of Interest… 3.30 Leicester- JUST GLAMOROUS… 2nd 10/1 decent run, no real excuse, collared late. 

Well the last two ‘pace’ horses have won at 5/1 and 8/1 so we shall see if we can add another here. I thought 13/2 , 6/1, looked fair enough for an interest wager. This 4 year old made all in a Listed race at Ascot the last day at 33/1. It transpired after the race that he’d had a wind op and that there were valid excuses for his other poor runs this year. In theory there could still be more to come and he has a touch of class about him. He drops back into a handicap here and who knows if this mark will prove beyond him- hard to know really, and in that scenario you want a decent enough price. He should be able to lead this lot I think- I am not sure a couple of other pace setters will be quick enough to live with him, but time will tell. If he can dictate from the front he could be hard to catch. If his wind is sorted we could be about to see even more progress. He is only 4 still. I find it interesting that Oisin keeps the ride/wants to ride him- well it isn’t a negative in any case. I’ll have a go at those odds to find out.

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That’s the lot for today.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • GOLF A BLANK WEEK

    CJ Cup is the first PGA Tour event to be held in South Korea so no stats,so a watch and learn tournament.

    Andalusia Masters no player reaches my criteria so no bet for me or you,till next week

    Cheers

    colin leafe 17/10/17 8:37 AM Reply


    • I always enjoy a tournament at Valderrama and Tyrrell Hatton and Ross Fisher are in red hot form. Sergio is favourite but not much of a price. At a price, another player in some form, Gregory Bourdy at 50/1.

      I dont like much in South Korea this week. At a price Patrick Reed at 33/1.

      martin colwell 17/10/17 2:07 PM Reply


      • Andalucia the two I have backed are

        Soren Kjeldsen 20
        Alejandro Canizares 50

        Mark 17/10/17 3:31 PM Reply


  • 340 Worcester Lady of Longstone is hcp well now on old form and at 12/1 with Bet vic PP is worth a ew. Struggle to get a grip of Pipe but alot in this ones favour today and odds look generous.
    Side note Warren was interested in using speed / pace ratings but could nt make use of GGG. If you sign up to Betdaq and deposit a few quid you can get Proform race cards for free which inclued Pace angles and much more. No brainer as £50 a month usually. Some silly sods out there paying for them.

    james bull 17/10/17 9:01 AM Reply


  • with the national hunt season just about to explode into life
    I am going back to my roots watching novice hurdlers, novice chasers
    and bumper horse to find horses to follow.

    The first horse that I was impressed with is Alan Kings
    DEYRANN DE CARJAC.
    described in his stable tour in the post as one of his best bumper horses last year
    but had a stress fracture.

    He stayed on to be third at Chepstow on Sunday but what really impressed me about this horse
    was his ability to settle and travel easily
    With the stress fracture in mind he wasn’t given a hard time and his third was down to pure ability rather than the jockey being hard on him.

    Set to go hurdling he looks like he will pick up a novice hurdle before going up in class
    The breeding suggest he will get 2m4f.

    Only 4 this gelding looks like he could develop into a grade horse.
    how hard King will be on him on his hurdle debut is open to question
    as at this stage of his career there is no rush

    peter 17/10/17 10:08 AM Reply


    • I have this horse in my tracker too. We will see where he goes next? certainly a promising run at the weekend.

      martin colwell 17/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


      • King went to Chepstow with him and his debut was at Newbury
        but I guess on hurdle debut they will stay away from a grade 1 track.

        if he was mine I would go to Towcester as I think the stiff course would suit
        although with a previous stress fracture it may be wise to stick to a flat track
        if they are in any doubt about the problem so Wincanton could be a possible

        The horse is being treated with kid gloves at the moment but I love the way he settled
        right from the start.

        In bumpers they go fairly slowly and horses often pull for their heads
        so it was a big plus how he ran.

        When they feel the horse is ready to race he will leave previous form well behind
        The Mo for his first hurdle run will be interesting as it is quite possible
        they might not really put a gun to the horses head to win.

        I am hoping that he settles well over hurdles
        and is fluent at the jumps.

        Just out of interest what do you Martin and other members look for when you are watching
        novices in NH races.

        peter 17/10/17 1:36 PM Reply


        • Initially for an engine so that it may go over a distance of ground and can finish a race when it matures. I like a horse that can go through the hurdling ranks and progress to chases. Jumping can come with practice and experience. Obviously ground dependency is key and so a good engine underneath the saddle can mean speed but can also mean stamina.

          martin colwell 17/10/17 2:36 PM Reply


          • Thanks Martin,
            I get what you mean by engine as that is very important.

            Early in a NH horses career they are often running over the wrong distance
            3 mile bred horses over 2mile 2m4 etc.

            Another type of horse I look for is the ones that are right up with the pace
            either leading or just behind the leaders who looks in big trouble turning in
            and starts dropping back with the jockey pushing for all his worth
            and then after looking like they are going to drop right out
            put their head down and don’t lose any more ground.

            Then check the breeding and if from a long line of stayers
            wait till they are upped in trip or get more testing ground

            I much prefer these type than ones that are right out the back
            and finish like a train

            these types are much more eye catching and are over bet next time
            and it can be an illusion as they are not always finishing fast
            it is possible the others are stopping in front giving the impression of a very strong finish.

            if you watch a horse from Sunday called Young Turk(Cork)
            turning for home the jockey was riding for all his worth
            when the faster horses went past but rallied to finish third
            The ground was quite quick and I think he lacked the speed to go with the faster horses
            he was beaten into 2nd over 2m4f on heavy ground and now 3 miles on faster

            So if my observations are correct when he gets 3miles on testing ground he will
            take all the beating unless he comes up against a Mullins superstar.( even then he will be a decent e/w play)
            Young Turk jumped very neatly and settled nicely both of which are vital
            for long distance hurdlers

            peter 17/10/17 3:08 PM Reply


        • Above Board hacked up at Worcester for Jonjo and JP

          Opened at 4/9 and backed down to 1/3
          in beginners chases this support says it all.

          rated lowly 120s as a hurdler he was pulled up
          on his last run.
          still only 6 years old and it is no surprise when you see the size of him that
          he wastes no time over hurdles and starts a chasing career

          Switched off behind the two point to point winners
          he cruised through to win with tons in hand.

          This horse looks a typical JJ and JP Stayer
          may lack a bit of toe to trouble the speedier horses
          when up in grade but will come into his own
          in real slogs.
          Think he will develop into a 150 plus staying chaser
          and with his size should have no trouble jumping around the grade1 tracks.

          Mullins, Henderson and the other top guys will have quicker novices
          but Above Board certainly has a future

          peter 17/10/17 2:49 PM Reply


        • Good question re the progression of Hurdlers and Chasers.

          My own personal point of view is that the Point 2 Point fields are still the best learning and experience places; especially for Chasers and long Distance Hurdlers. I think that Bumpers/NHFlat has almost become a “cottage industry” in itself and races that more Trainers try to win with almost “specialist bumpers” than horses that are merely being prepared for a Hurdle/Chase career.

          I feel that 1 1/2 to 2 seasons on NH Flat can almost be “lost years” as in the past decade I think more effective to get them hurdling or Chasing, sooner, than would have been the norm. With the advent of “Veteran Chases” and the abundance of more 3 mile + Hurdle races on the calendar; I now see a clear definition of NH Flat being its own mini segment.

          I also have a view that a horse that runs too often at NHF level merely becomes attuned to running at the intermediate pace that these races can be run at, contrast with P2P where races are far less tactically run and of course there is no experience better than jumping a real fence, up hill and down dale; at race pace when the sinews and muscles and heart rate is being properly stretched.

          Ian@SP2A 17/10/17 4:50 PM Reply


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