Members Daily Post:15/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood 

2.00-

Bamako Du Chatelet(all hncps) 14,30 I3 8/1 UP

Night Generation (micro age) 20/1 UP

4.20 –

Teofonic (all hncps) H3 I3 4/1  WON 3/1 

Michael’s Mount (3yo+) H3 I3 6/1 3rd 5/1

4.55 –

Boy In The Bar (all hncps) 14,30 I3 G3 6/1

Poet’s Princess (all hncps) I1  8/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Chepstow

3.25 –

Cloudy Beach (hncp chase) 14/1 UP

Double Ross (micro runs, 90 days) H3 I3 3/1 UP

4.35 – Wadswick Court (all hncps) ES+  H3 G3  16/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (19/95, +76)

I’ve had a look through and nothing to add in any notes etc today. Nothing at the prices/profiles etc really leaping out at me.

 

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Yesterday…

We were due a blank day, a timely/over-due reminder, that this game isn’t as easy as it’s been in recent weeks. As touched on previously, many of the strategies have been operating ahead of their long term win % which means there had to be a correction. There will be many more days like that and in truth most were big prices on Sat- the point is that the winners more than make up for those days, over time. Profit, not winners, is the aim 🙂 (need to back some winners obviously, but you get my point) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

3.25 Chep – Double Ross (m1/5) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday’s post… I think those videos are worth a watch, esp if you took up a recent trial option. Steve seemed to like the first one anyway!

IMPORTANT! 

1.- I have added the new Jumps TTP report + the Elite Squad reports to The Key

2. – I have changed the ‘codes’ i use next to the qualifiers, so that you know what part of the stats pack they come from… for the Micros it is simply an M1 or M2 to cover all angles in said section of each track profile. With any luck you can find the trainer of the horse on a race-card and it will be obvious enough which stat they hit. Clearly that is only relevant for those of you who like to check out which stats the horses hit/how strong they may be/how that may influence any subjective analysis you carry out.

3. NEW POST/VIDEOS!In the post HERE>>>   I have recorded two videos… the first looks at some general points, the advised strategies in terms of win % > losing runs > betting banks. (there is also a link to the PDF of power point slides) The second video takes a closer look at the advised strategies and as luck would have it used Beer Goggles as a real example of Jumps Strategy #1 … he qualified when drifting to 11.00 + on BFSP, returned 26.00, 16/1 SP.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • yes agree with what you had to say josh about yesterday , dissapointing not to get a winner but i’ve had those sort of days before often over the years and will have them again for sure !
    i in fact expect my strike rate to drop a bit further still because i’m still at 21% which is still higher than i would expect .
    the main aim for me is to get consistent profit over time to allow me to grow my bank that is all i really want .
    of course the bread and butter / icing on the cake is winning money , that is what we’re all after ! , but i do like reading the comments from other members to see what they have to say plus i also like the videos you make , all in all there’s so much to see from this site and i appreciate everything that you do and also the invite i got to rejoin , without that i wouldn’t be here now , i just now hope it becomes a long relationship .

    steve 15/10/17 8:23 AM Reply


  • I think it is a positive move to change the codes Josh (maybe Steve inspired it ?) anyway , it helps an old fella like me … simple codes and colours catch the eye quickly Thanks for being open to change i hope everyone else feels the same .

    I jumped onto the 5/1 B365 opened up with last night on Double Ross 3.25 chep ,won this race easily last year , 3rd in 2016 Hennessy 50/1 ,goes well fresh and of course appears on todays stats H3 I3 M1/5.

    Gearoid , will you be having a few coins on Poetic Rhythm today mate ? (was 10/1 last night)
    Good Luck All

    joners 15/10/17 9:07 AM Reply


    • I had a bit on at 7 Joners,i missed the 10,brings back happy memories for me,was the first selection on Paddy Watch at the Cheltenham open meeting,hoping that team FOB have a similar hot streak this Autumn,also looking forward to Bells n Banjos,a real genuine grinder,the Spud and of course Perfect Candidate.

      gearoid180468 15/10/17 9:17 AM Reply


      • Nice battling performance,don’t think I was the only one on,upwards on onwards for this one

        gearoid180468 15/10/17 3:03 PM Reply


    • (I haven’t changed any codes on these pages Joners, just incase anyone read that and was confused… Steve suggested I add in the ‘ES’ ‘ES+’ to the actual stats packs, just to make highlighting those easier when I trawl through to find the next day’s bets- or if you use the guide yourself -which sounded perfectly logical, and as some point I will go back through the guide and add them in)

      Josh 15/10/17 10:09 AM Reply


  • Great too see some old favourites going in the 3.25,but the term veterans is questionable,Cloudy Beach is a veteran of 7 rules races,could be “unexposes”

    gearoid180468 15/10/17 9:10 AM Reply


  • I dont usually bet on a Sunday on the horses but as I have hit a hot streak I have to have a go. Gary Moore goes well in handicaps at Goodwood and so Age of Wisdom seems OK at 7/1+ in the 2.00. I hear that the horse is in good order. The Nick Williams/Lizzie Kelly combo go in the 2.15 at Chepstow, not much of a price though. The Nicholls team are knocking out the winners now and I like Amour Du Nuit off top weight in the 2.50 at Chepstow. I hear that the Nicky Henderson team rated Discours Dun Roi but last season it ran two stinkers. He has had a wind op etc and they hope it has done the trick and now it can go on. It runs in the 4.00 CH and was 18/1 when I backed it. Mark Johnston is not too shabby at Goodwood either and Teofonic must have a strong chance in the 4.20 at 4/1. Finally I hear Colin Tizzard rates Sizing Granite highly and he goes off at 7/1 in the 4.35 CH.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 15/10/17 9:13 AM Reply


  • we all have a different approach when it comes to how many selections or system qualifiers we chose to back.For me joshs site and sp2a are a class above most websites in there attitude to value and the type of race to back in. it is possible to back all selections according to some punters on forum and win money,but for me a very selective approach is required.As a member of both websites i only look at these two sites for selections iwill try and piece together in my head es qualifiers triple top rated horses and ians personel view at sp2a within an hour of them being published.and will also look for positive views on the forum from other experienced punters.It is a feel that you get if you really like something like trans express at exeter last week,a picture can emerge it wasa es qualifier ian tipped it and there waspositive feedback from the forum. You only get so long to get on before bookmakers will cut the price if things come together,patience is imprtant and if you miss a big price move on to the next one it will be around the corner.With my experience in punting of anumber of years,i know the two sites will produce good value bets each week, i personnly will look for 5 to 6 good bets a week if you get on early enough you will make money.So to sum up be selective grab as much value as possible read the views of the very informed forum punters.

    josh 15/10/17 9:13 AM Reply


    • Totally agree re 5 to 6 good bets each week, ala Witthold as an example yesterday where you can get on earlier in the week at 16/1 and even 11/1 on the morning of the race before the big money comes. However that is OK for me and some others but if you do not want to have too much on then stick to a stake per day and go with up to 4 max selections.

      martin colwell 15/10/17 9:18 AM Reply


  • Agree there Martin,one probably should have no more than 5% of their bank exposed at any one time,during the week it will be difficult to have 2 decent ones in a day,weekends its harder to scale back,10+ is way to go then

    gearoid180468 15/10/17 9:35 AM Reply


  • Josh if it would be OK I would like to monitor a system I’ve setup on HRB on here and perhaps get some feedback (from all) on how to improve it further? The system looks to flag unexposed NH handicappers that have a trip change from their last NH run. From that I have gone through trainers that have a consistent record over the last 4 years: +20% ROI + a positive ROI in the last 2 years. I still haven’t gone through all the trainers yet but have an initial set of trainers to go to war with. The basic rules for the system is as follows:

    Race Code = National Hunt
    Handicap/Non = Handicap
    Distance Move NOT = Down 1F to Up 1F
    H-Run (NH Race Type) Between 0 and 4
    Last Race Code = National Hunt

    My initial questions are:

    1/ Do you think the distance move i’m tracking is significant enough? As at the moment anything changing in distance by 1 1/2 Furlongs is selected. I think it’s subjective to the overall race distance, but I’m not sure how i could systemise that as their isn’t a percentage distance move field in HRB I can use, so I need to put a line in the sand.

    2/ To track the unexposed element I’ve set the selection criteria to only select horses that have 0-4 runs in the same NH code. Is this a reasonable number or should it be altered? I did have it at 3 runs max, but there was a runner on here having its 4th run with a distance move and was unlucky not to get up so I think its still a tactic up to 4 runs but maybe 5 or 6 runs could still be in the unexposed category? Again another question that is subjective but will be interesting to hear peoples thoughts.

    The main aim of the system is to be general enough to have a decent number of bets ,so i dont want it to be too micro, for example i could add in extra criteria on trainer’s strike rate at the track but that would limit the number of bets and potential miss out new tactics from the trainer.

    To track it I will put up the elections on here, with a simple 1 point per selection to make it easy to read and take the BFSP. In reality i will be betting £5 per selection to monitor it and if it aligns with any other systems on here or I like it on further analysis i will up the stakes accordingly but for tracking i’ll just monitor the 1pt level stakes.

    There is one selection today and its actually the same as one in section 1:

    3.25 – Cloudy Beach

    Strange that the first selection for this unexposed system is popping up in a veterans race, but it is very lightly raced 10 year old so we shall see. My own personal preference for the race based on historic form at this time of year for the race is Potters Cross who won a C2 with better horses in October last year at Chepstow and looks on a mark to repeat, so will have a bet on this as well.

    JamesP 15/10/17 9:53 AM Reply


    • I would agree that 1F is too little and probably 2F minimum. Personally I would let a horse have its first 2 runs for free to get the hang of it and then see what the trainer wants to do re distance etc. I would let the system run in the week as Saturdays become very competitive and its harder for horses to win, especially those unexposed. Just some thoughts.

      martin colwell 15/10/17 12:31 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the feedback Martin, yep i agree 1F is too small a change so I will change the system to pick up those that have a 2F change minimum.

        Re the weekend races, I had a quick look and it looks as though the weekend races although a lot smaller does turn a profit & positive ROI so I will keep those in, however week days are pulling better numbers so maybe where I adjust staking personally.

        jamesp 15/10/17 7:43 PM Reply


        • JamesP

          IMHO I’d leave your criteria as is, not because I disagree with Martin’s opinion of 1f either way being insufficient but simply because the historical results support your current set up having plugged it into HRB. I suspect how HRB works means the difference will actually be 1.5f or greater either way using “NOT Down 1f to Up 1f”, presumably the range being inclusive.

          I like this as the market often misses horses ‘doing something different’ to the point such winners are often hidden. Cloudy Beach was an unfortunate first selection with so many other factors against it (ground, DSR, class) but looking historically this has loads of merit to the point I’ve grouped trainers into two groups, those with 40 qualifiers+/20%+ SR/good profits/more established yards and those with fewer qualifiers/more flexible strike rate/perhaps marginally lesser profits/smaller yards, with the latter more likely to be very much under the radar. As such I’ll monitor both groups with interest.

          Thanks for sharing.

          Steve 15/10/17 10:09 PM Reply


          • Yes Steve just double checking and there is quite a considerable difference in moving the distance change by .5 a furlong, some 200 points over 4 years! So good spot and ill revert it back to how i originally had it. No qualifiers for me tomorrow but should ramp up as the NH season clicks into gear.

            JamesP 15/10/17 11:35 PM Reply


            • JamesP

              What you’ve found are potentially profitable runners likely to be undetected by the market and I wouldn’t unnecessarily restrict yourself in any way. Just focus on the individual trainers you’ve established in your group and determine if this is a process each is likely to continue with in future.

              As you will be aware, key to any good system is keeping it out of the mainstream because as soon as everyone is backing them then the prices shrink and your edge is quickly eroded. It will be interesting to see how this develops for you.

              Good luck.

              Steve

              Steve 16/10/17 11:37 AM Reply


  • had a fair day yesterday and maid a good profit had a good look for today my bet will be 3 singels and a treble travelcard 3-10 g/w elgin 4-00 chep mont des avaloirs 5-40 chep good luck everyone

    joseph shannon 15/10/17 10:11 AM Reply


  • Was out yesterday at the match….then town for a few….then a trip to the Vic for a kids birthday party [horror’s]. GGF to twins…got sloshed watching grown men dressed as Telleeee Tubbie’s [quilts] , came home, checked horse results…..wipe out.!!!
    This morning…..dosh down…but only by a bit……Checked as to why.
    Monarchs Glen…blessings…so not to bad a loss.
    I must retake the pledge at the local temperance hall and stop doing my bank in.
    roflmao.
    Should have crushed them yesterday Josh.
    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 15/10/17 10:48 AM Reply


  • One from my Irish Tracker…..Daliyah 1.50 Naas….Price no good…. 3/1.. so i’ll leave it.

    tonymc 15/10/17 11:10 AM Reply


  • Pettochside 4:55 GW looks overpriced to me 18s currently.
    CD winner. Likes goodwood 3 wins 6 places. Hollie Doyle on board.

    Darren 15/10/17 12:43 PM Reply


    • Good call with Pettochside, well done.

      Karl Willis 15/10/17 6:26 PM Reply


  • Hi all, New to this site but find it very interesting, at the moment I couldn’t hit a horses arse with a football so treading very carefully.
    I think todays racing is very competitive for a Sunday, the 2 that I like are Chep 2.50 Amour De Nuit and in the 3.25 Shuil Royale only worry for the latter is the jockey, all the best with your bets.

    Greg

    Greg Phillips 15/10/17 1:47 PM Reply


    • Welcome aboard Greg,good luck with your bets,best thing is to start small,wont do much damage then,after a bit of a high on the site we are due an evening out in results

      gearoid180468 15/10/17 2:44 PM Reply


  • Noticed this on Raceday live
    Matthew on twitter has been back in touch and reckons Alistair Ralph and Alex Edwards win everything on Midlands point-to-point scene
    AR being the trainer of BOB FORD
    Does anybody know much about him his history etc

    Mike

    mickeydee 15/10/17 4:51 PM Reply


  • Pettochside! 18s into 14s hope you got on

    Darren Braddock 15/10/17 5:01 PM Reply


    • Top work Darren. I’ve been out/away from racing and only just properly reading through the comments… not a penny on..with any luck some others did but in any case,nice end to the afternoon for you! Well done.

      Josh 15/10/17 5:15 PM Reply


    • Thanks Darren

      you selecting Hollie Doyle’s mount gave me the extra push to back the horse @ 20/1 with 365 but I only did the bet with my lowest stake

      other than this winner it had been a very “no winners” day up until then….nice when they win and young Hollie is an excellent apprentice….luckily these days there are a few of them about in the sport

      norman 15/10/17 5:29 PM Reply


  • Yep nice winner to finish on after a lean day yesterday.

    Darren 15/10/17 6:16 PM Reply


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