Members Daily Post: 14/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Newmarket 

3.40 –

Fun Mac (all hncps) 50/1 UP

Magic Circle (all hncps) 33/1 UP

Start Rider (all hncps) G3 66/1 UP

Aurora Gray (all hncps + micro age) 50/1 UP

 

York 

3.15 – Raucous (micro age) 14,30 G3 18/1 UP

5.30 – Alwahsh (micro age) 14,30 I3 7/1 3rd 11/2

 

JUMPS

Chepstow

4.10 –

Souriyan (all hncps + m1) ES+ 22/1 UP

Wholestone (m2,m2) 30 H1 I1 G1 9/2 4th 

4.45 –

Marcilhac (hncp chase) 14/1 UP

Ballykan (m2) 30 G1 12/1 3rd 8/1

5.20 – Phangio (all hncps + hncp chase + m1) ES 18/1 UP 33/1

 

Hexham

4.00-

Indian Voyage (all hncps) ES+ I3 9/1 PU

Green Flag (hncp chase + m1) H3 5/1 PU

4.35 –

Beyondtemptation (m1 + m2) I3 10/1 PU

Island Heights (m1) I3 8/1 UP

5.10 –

My Idea (all hncps + m2) ES+  H1 I1 G3 10/1 UP

Achill Road Boy (hncp chase, + m2) ES H3 I3  6/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (19/93, +78)

Some NOTES…

NOTES

I want to have something on both the Haggas horses at York..

Raucous … well he has some decent back form in group/listed races and has clearly lost his way a bit. I couldn’t fail to spot that they remove the headgear, having been on for quite a while. While unlikely that makes much difference it is possible that it sparks him back into life. At his price, i’ll have a small nibble to find out.

Alwahsh.. at 7s is just big enough… he is very well bred and is lightly enough raced, especially over this trip. He drops in class from the last day but of more importance is that he has a big field/strong pace to aim at here, which should be in his favour. The race the last day wasn’t run to suit but there should be no excuse here, if good enough. Haggas is in red hot form and with any luck one of them may drop in.

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Others…

The 3.40 Newmarket- well, I am just going to throw £2 at each of those at BFSP for fun… I have not even looked at the horses but such is that race there may not be much point! Horses go in at all odds in that and I know i’d be more annoyed if one of those fell in, than the likely prospect of losing £8-£10. Why not, it is an entertainment game after all!

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Jumps Strategy #1…  Geegeez 10/1+… Ballykan and My Idea qualify on the prices above, being 10/1+… therefore if you follow that strategy systematically they should be backed. SP/BFSP is now irrelevant. Wholestone… he will only qualify on that angle if his BFSP is 11.00 or bigger, you can set minimum odds… as per the video in the post below… sometimes they do drift that much, every now and then, and like Beer Goggles yesterday, sometimes they drift massively and still win 8/1>16/1 (26.00 BFSP).. the market didn’t have a clue.

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GL with any bets….

My week… I am off to Anfield this lunchtime so we shall see how that goes. There could be a few days of grief from some of my best mates if Jose does what Jose does! I am then heading back to Suffolk for a few days… Amy Murphy (I have shares in Blessed To Empress and Really Super) is having an owners day and I thought I should make an appearance. You won’t notice any difference on the content front, a normal working week… there won’t be any videos as I will be away from the screen capture kit etc. Sunday’s post is likely to be up Sunday morning… of course you do have the guides if you can’t wait until then, esp for ES quals/Jumps #2

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

4.45 Chep- Ballykan (m1/4/5) 4th

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT! 

1.- I have added the new Jumps TTP report + the Elite Squad reports to The Key

2. – I have changed the ‘codes’ i use next to the qualifiers, so that you know what part of the stats pack they come from… for the Micros it is simply an M1 or M2 to cover all angles in said section of each track profile. With any luck you can find the trainer of the horse on a race-card and it will be obvious enough which stat they hit. Clearly that is only relevant for those of you who like to check out which stats the horses hit/how strong they may be/how that may influence any subjective analysis you carry out.

3. NEW POST/VIDEOS!In the post HERE>>>   I have recorded two videos… the first looks at some general points, the advised strategies in terms of win % > losing runs > betting banks. (there is also a link to the PDF of power point slides) The second video takes a closer look at the advised strategies and as luck would have it used Beer Goggles as a real example of Jumps Strategy #1 … he qualified when drifting to 11.00 + on BFSP, returned 26.00, 16/1 SP.

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Handicap Hurdle Stats/Trends

This season I want to have a go at shortlisting in big handicap hurdles (c2+/Saturday races) and seeing how we get on.

I have looked at the 4.10. It isn’t the strongest on the stats but I thought I would share what I found, for you to use/ignore as you please…

10/20 WON Last time out (10/55 runners,22p, +51 if backing the lot…)

8/10 Irish Bred (8/64, versus 2/67 GB+French)

Same/Up one class (Listed>G3 is up 1, G3 LTO is ‘same’) 0/34,6p

7/10 Top 2 LTO

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So, some tentative ones there for sure. Those that won LTO should be marked up and those that were making handicap debut are 5/10. Those stats above leave 4

Bags Groove (ticks the lot) / Louis Vac Pouch (Hobbs 2/16,7p in race) / Whatduhavtoget / Peak To Peak (PN is 0/15,3p in race..maybe that changes today)

Clearly with a 8/10 and a 7/10 stat there I have probably put a line through the winner. But, i suspect following this same approach every year may highlight enough winners to do just fine. Plenty have gone in at decent odds.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Is there a hiccup in the Elite quals?
    I’ve got both Indian Voyage and My Idea as ES+ and nothing for Achill

    cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 13/10/17 5:51 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,

      1. I am clearly still re-training my brain- as you know I don’t use the actual ES report,more try and remember the criteria when looking through main guide! Have missed Indian Voyage/My Idea but yep he is in ES report as he was just close enough to 25% to include.

      2. Achill is per the qualifying criteria an ES… that is just an angle I have failed to pull out and put in ES report- the first minor error of many I suspect! Will edit when a spare moment.

      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 5:59 PM Reply


      • no wonder you make a few mistakes in all that you are doing for us all , so much to remember and look at day to day .
        to help you though in looking at the main guides as you do wouldn’t it be a good idea to go through them all and put a ES or ES+ in blue at the end of the stats line , that way you would know straight away how they qualify for a ES or ES+ .
        afterwards then you could cross reference against your ES separate report to see what has been missed as in stuart coltherd at hexham just to get everything right .
        like i say i think your doing a fabulous job on this site for everyone but as things grow and you add more content in you are ever likely to make one or two mistakes here and there so as your doing all this by yourself you could possibly need some help in time i beleive to check things over in what your doing .
        we all have good days and bad , feel tired , ill , need a break , we are only human .
        appreciate everything you do , i’m only trying to help .

        steve 14/10/17 8:07 AM Reply


        • Hi Steve… that is a very simple/logical suggestion and I will do just that I think! Makes plenty of sense.
          Mike is a god send, and I know that he is always there ready and waiting to correct any of my brain fades!
          Josh

          Josh 14/10/17 9:27 AM Reply


          • thankyou josh and also thanks to mike for checking things .

            steve 14/10/17 11:15 AM Reply


  • Maurice Barnes(although 0-6,14days) 2 chasers are being ridden by Dale Irving who has a 33% 7-21 +22 over fences at Hexham,16% strike rate for Barnes for+33,26% on chasers+6.25,which gives added weight to the 2 selections

    gearoid180468 13/10/17 6:36 PM Reply


  • We have 2 running from the jumper to follow guest post.
    We have already had a winner from the article.
    3.35 chepstow dino velvet
    4.10 chepstow Sumkindofking.

    Warren bottomley 13/10/17 8:04 PM Reply


    • Yep , i jumped onto the Dino Velvet train , also liked Wholestone think its better than the 145 mark today .. Oscar Rose chep 2.30 8/1 for Fergal & Paddy … im sure they think shes decent so im expecting some support to come .Threw in Minella Suite in the 5.10 … no great prices but every little helps 🙂
      Good Luck

      joners 14/10/17 10:29 AM Reply


  • Josh, enjoy the game….Hope we can get a result today to pick up the mood around the place (oh and twitter haha)

    Hard days racing! Will have to flick between the match and racing on the box!

    Jack 14/10/17 11:22 AM Reply


  • If the Aintree bumper form is a guide both this one and Dame Rose(3.25 Hexham) 1st and 2nd should be decent,if they have progressed over the summer. I’m looking forward to seeing another,Poetic Rhythm.making his seasonal debut tomorrow,won the bumper here last year and went on to win at Cheltenham, was then highly tried in top novices,coming up a bit short,could be useful this season with correct placing,tomorrow will tell.The stable have a few bumper runners again tomorrow,however they ones that have come were very disappointing and the bookies have them nailed down as well.

    gearoid180468 14/10/17 11:44 AM Reply


  • been laid up last couple of days as living with cancer is a hard battle any way last night I was burning the midnight oil and my three bets for today are as follows .point of intrest josh I am not looking for people to follow my tips I just like the fact that I can post them for other people to see them here goes . ew patent ballykan 4.45 chep .louis.vac pouch 4.10 chep.withhold .3.40 n/m good luck everyone today joe

    joseph shannon 14/10/17 11:48 AM Reply


    • Well done Joe , first one up!! good luck with the battle ,winners will help…let`s have the other two up please…

      Stewart 14/10/17 3:58 PM Reply


  • really hope you get better joe and recover fully

    steve 14/10/17 12:27 PM Reply


  • All the best with your health Joe , Good luck with the selections , the great thing about all the members on here is no one “judges” … we all have opinions and its great to be able to share … Keep up the battle mate

    joners 14/10/17 1:27 PM Reply


    • We will be shouting them home for you Joe,in what really matters hope the season brings some joy in your own battle

      gearoid180468 14/10/17 1:54 PM Reply


  • thanks everyone good to know people care I hope we all have a great season

    joseph shannon 14/10/17 5:28 PM Reply


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