Free Daily Post: 14/10/17 (complete)

An easy all the way 5/1 winner to close the play on Friday’s free post.. luckily Harry read the script 🙂 Moving on…

 

TIPS

None.  I dont have the clearest of heads this morning and don’t have the time to do the chases justice. I’ll be hoping some members/micro horses run well… Ballykan/Marcilhac. Rock The Kasbah seems well fancied also for the Saturday TJC pair below, but he is looking short enough now in a race like that, to my eyes anyway. GL if you back anything.

P

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I haven’t had time to look at the big Newmarket handicap with stats/trends and instead will rely on a guest preview/tips from SP2A, as below.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

4.50 Newm – Gymnaste (any odds)

4.30 Cork – Always Dancing (any)

SAT Trainer/jockey combos

4.45 Chep – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<)

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GUEST TIPS/PREVIEW/SP2A

3.40 Newmarket 

Who Dares Wins – 1 point each way @ 10/1

Shrewd – 1 point each way @ 20/1

Byron Flyer – 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 (PP) @ 20/1 generally

Swashbuckle – 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 (WH + Lads)

 

(see notes below re-: Euchen Glen and First Mohican)

(Prices correct at 3.00pm on Friday 13th October – extensive enhanced odds see bottom of mail)

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A marathon Trip of 2 Miles and 2 Furlongs, where they start in one County and finish in another and unique as the Draw; can be a very big factor as the track is basically the shape of a straightened off “7”; a long straight and then a right hand sharp bend in to another straight, and if you are drawn wide, you have 2 early choices, sit in behind as they tend to run 2-3 abreast to save yards, or make an early bold run for the rail, using vital energy, but hopeful of avoiding the inevitable carnage, when the race really unfolds in the final 1/2 mile and in to the dip and up the hill, and the dip is vital as you want  to be accelerating in to and up it, and not too far out and not too late as you hit the rising ground.

We are looking for proven stamina over at least 2 miles, preferably more; Course form if possible; Autumn form; a nice handicap mark and as the Going is not a factor being basically “Good” a horse with prominent running style but the ability; to change gear as it reaches the business end of the race, oh, and there are only 36 to consider, so easy (not!) I narrowed the 36 down to about half that number in an hour, and in the next hour got down to 8 and finally 6, from which I will give you 4 SELECTIONS and a couple who can have a bit of loose change on, or use as reserves in case of a non runner

I reluctantly left out the likes of Endless Acres (31); Snow Falcon (29); Mirsaale (23) and Star Rider (36) and whilst that could come back to bite me, I feel a real handicap with of them Endless Acres and Mirsaale the most feared. Will give very honourable mentions to two at decent odds who made the final 8 and they are DUKE STREET and AURORA GRAY.

My final 6 look like this is preference order-:

No 10 WHO DARES WINS – won the trial in impressive style, gets a nice draw in stall 8; looks progressive and can’t see it not being in contention from that draw with just a 4lbs penalty and with a very impressive young Jock up the 10/1 is value.

No 2 SHREWD – 3rd in the Trial and met considerable interference before staying on, may be a tad well handicapped as a result and Trainer is making his name in this type of race, very decent 7lbs Claimer takes 7lbs off and another well drawn in stall 9, and has won on this Course if not over this distance.

No 14 BYRON FLYER – drawn 4 so will find a nice slot; the further they go surely the stronger and will stay on with luck in running, the Trainer is bang in form, as is the jockey, who seems to have “kicked on” this season and the prominent runstyle should have him in an ideal tactical position throughout.

No 22 SWASHBUCKLE – drawn in 2 and another who can take advantage of low draw. Has form on this Track and elsewhere over the Distance, not particularly well handicapped but the nagging view it can run a big race here at nice odds.

The other pair I’d have a small dabble on are No 19 Euchen Glen, Goldie and Mulhearn always a danger in these big field races and could come late from stall 20 and nice handicap mark and the King second string who ran a great race in this last year No 7 FIRST MOHICAN who is a very juicy 50/1, and well drawn and in Hollie Doyle an outstanding rider.

So how to stake…William Hill and SkyBet go 1/5th the odds to EIGHTH PLACE!!!!!!

Paddy Power go 1/5th the odds to SEVENTH PLACE and Bet 365 got 1/4 the odds to 6th

so the simple message is USE ONE OF THOSE if you can!. We will settle to 6th place 1/5th the odds.

Good Luck

Ian

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Back to confirm ‘tipping’ plans at some point, prob Sat morning. 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • I was chatting to Ian from SP2A re the 3.40 and Withhold earlier. I am on at 14/1 and hope the owners money will come and take it to 7/1 when I can lay it and have a healthy free bet. Ian made some good points including bad draw and doubts over staying re Withhhold. I know Tony Bloom paid £170.000 for this horse and has not run it to protect its handicap mark. I am also aware that they expect it to stay. You can never be confident in a 30+ runner race though.

    martin colwell 13/10/17 6:11 PM Reply


    • Josh; I hope you enjoy the game. I suppose it is one of those where only the result matters. I have to say I have respect for both sides and Klopp in particular is a breath of fresh air, his press conferences pure gold. However; Jose certainly seems to have sorted out the United midfield and the key I think is that any back 4 is only as good as (a) the keeper behind them and (b) the cover in front of them, and that is the main difference between the teams at present.

      I must tell you one day about my Tuesday night trip to a game at Liverpool in the early 1980’s when I first went in to the Main Office to collect a ticket and tapped a guy politely on the shoulder and said “excuse me can you tell me where the ticket office is”??, was gobsmacked when Graham Souness turned round, however, when the chap who gave me a lift up in the most dodgy Triumph Herald you have ever seen, said after the game “do you fancy a drink i know a good pub a few miles away”; I did not expect I’d end up being locked in an “all nighter” at a pub in Toxteth!!, god knows how but I still made it to my Office desk at 9am the following morning…

      Happy Days!

      Ian@SP2A 13/10/17 6:38 PM Reply


      • Can’t see the problem Josh. Coutinho, Firmino and Salah causing havoc at the front and Milner in for Moreno to steady things at left back. Law of averages says Can pings his next 25-30 yarder to break the deadlock.

        titus_a_duxass 13/10/17 7:22 PM Reply


        • The bloke who lives up the road who follows Liverpool (he who said Klopp was off to Bayern) is very nervous about the game today. I saw him whilst I was out dog walking and he said if Liverpool lose he is not leaving his house until Tuesday! Not many goals I reckon.

          martin colwell 14/10/17 11:21 AM Reply


      • Ian SP2A: you must be from the same era as me! Back in the day when pubs closed at 3pm (then re-opened at 5pm) I was “locked-in” a packed pub (Vernon Arms on Dale Street) on Christmas Eve, just across the road from the main Bridewell (police prison). About 4pm a loud bang came from the locked side door, the pub went completely quiet and the landlord went to to open-up the door. We were expecting to spend the next 24 hours locked in a cell, when a cheer went up like a roar from the Kop! None other than Derek Hatton (at the height of his infamy) and his mob came in – drinks all round!

        Wayward Lad 14/10/17 10:09 AM Reply


    • I hear that Cape Caster is going well on the gallops after a lay off. I have thrown a few quid at it on Betfair at 250.

      martin colwell 14/10/17 11:24 AM Reply


    • Stunning run that Martin WELL DONE

      The usual draw bias was blown apart by Good to Firm Going and don’r ever recall them doing that in this race and going stands side, but horse would have won whatever the tactics you’d think, a cracking plot!

      Ian@SP2A 14/10/17 3:58 PM Reply


    • Boom!! Plan landed. The Lizard is a man the bookies fear.

      martin colwell 14/10/17 4:14 PM Reply


  • Had a great day at Newmarket today bagging Altyn Orda and Laurens (both of which I tweeted, although it looks as though my appalling form from earlier in the season put everyone off!) I’m not going tomorrow but here are my notes from horses to follow about Seahenge and Expert Eye’s last meeting. Shame I was away when Seahenge came out next time!

    Horses to follow – 2yo maidens who did not win on debut and may from their placing not be obvious nto winners.
    Seahenge – Hard to know what to make of this run, he looks a lovely big colt, tall, rangy and powerful. Looks like a group horse to my eye but did not run like one on this day. I am inclined to go 90+
    I fell in love with this great big strong and scopey son of Scat Daddy. Hard to be clear about his underperformance. He was a bit green and if my theory about the ground is right it may have been a bit soft for him. It was only his second run and his sp suggests Ballydoyle knew they were up against it. Despite this he looks to have Group Class potential and should certainly be at a fair price nto if he goes for another group race on g/f, if we ever get any!
    And on the winner
    Expert Eye – Beautifully proportioned and clear now that although he was not fully tuned on debut he has a great heart space behind those ribs. 105

    So EE is unbackably short and the most likely winner but Seahenge offers great value even if ‘The Lads’ don’t seem to be backing him. I’ll be on Seahenge with a EE to beat Seahenge forecast as my saver.

    Anyone who wants to can find the pictures of both in the W/e 6th August report.
    Hugh

    alpha2 13/10/17 10:14 PM Reply


  • Tough call today whether to focus on some excellent Flat or the Card at Chepstow, although the drying ground there could be a concern. Having done Cesarewitch for Elite we will be sending out Daily Tips to those who have done special offer later on (around 9am) but as I have left Chepstow out of those here are a few thoughts.

    Some cracking races but may also be a few at very good value, especially if aimed at today rather than seeing today as a stepping stone and prep race for later on. A Course that favours Course specialists and looking at the 2 big Handicaps later on the Card COURT MINSTREL 4.10 at about 14/1 ticks all the right boxes and an excellent Claimer rides and in the 4.45 RELENTLESS DREAMER also stands out of Course and Autumn form, for a yard always likely to make a quick start, who have a host of well handicapped types after a poor time last season.

    A bit of shrapnel on both of those for a bit of fun.

    Ian SP2A 14/10/17 6:49 AM Reply


    • Court Minstrel ran a huge race in the County, even though Williams seemed to think the horse was on the downgrade before. Been ticking over nicely since with some good runs without winning, indicates the ability is still there.

      Definitely won’t be a surprise to see an attempt of a repeat of the 2015 win in this, maybe ridden exactly the same from the back.

      But there are a good few that can take this, and would want to be seeing at least 25s on CM. If CM runs down the field today many might write it off…and there’ll still be a chance of a big swansong run at nice(r) odds in a soft ground big race this winter.

      Good luck Ian

      Steve C 14/10/17 7:23 AM Reply


    • Ian (

      Court Minstrel @ 14/1

      Excellent winner, well done..thank you

      norman 14/10/17 4:24 PM Reply


      • Thanks Norman.

        Thanks to Frankie too as he rescued a poor day on the flat with an outstanding ride on Monarchs Glen in the last at Newmarket..

        Definitely time to focus on NH now aside from a few big end of week/weekend meetings.

        Ian@SP2A 14/10/17 6:06 PM Reply


  • Up at Hexham a lot of rain expected this morning and that could turn the 4.00 in to a slog and out of my tracker, where it has been for almost a year, plays in to the hands of SMUGGLERS STASH, ran well early last season off marks of 95 and 97 and won a race and turns up here off a mark of 100, so well within scope and more rain and bigger emphasis on stamina, suits it more than most. Price around 11/2 so something of an e/w banker for me.

    Ian SP2A 14/10/17 7:24 AM Reply


  • Micky Hammond runs a bumper debutant in the last at Hexham – Schiehallion Munro. Currently around 22s.

    Has a few obvious ones to beat but the ground may be a leveller, and possible SM is better than these anyway whatever the ground.

    The Schiaparelli influence should hopefully lend the necessary stamina to handle a heavy ground Hexham bumper, and report from the yard suggests the horse is expected to show ability.

    Remember Mountain Path from last season anybody?

    Steve C 14/10/17 11:32 AM Reply


  • fair profit yesterday so Another go at the ITV 7
    1 1:50 Newmarket – Win Westerland @ Guaranteed Price (8/1)
    2 2:05 York – Win Chelsea Lad @ Guaranteed Price (9/2)
    3 2:25 Newmarket – Win Ghaiyyath @ Guaranteed Price (9/4)
    4 2:40 York – Win Staxton @ Guaranteed Price (9/1)
    5 3:00 Newmarket – Win Emaraaty @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)
    6 3:15 York – Win Mr Lupton @ Guaranteed Price (9/1)
    7 3:40 Newmarket – Win Shrewd @ Guaranteed Price (18/1)
    same stakes £2 win under 6-1 £1 ew 6’s+

    martin whittle 14/10/17 1:15 PM Reply


  • I’m gonna a have a few quid on those mentioned above in the 3.40.
    But I’m also gonna have a couple of quid on the mullins horse LAWS OF SPIN. Will like the ground big field should not trouble it and it’s got a jockey on board we all know can deliver.

    warren bottomley 14/10/17 2:14 PM Reply


    • well i’m still waiting for him to deliver. lol

      warren bottomley 14/10/17 7:20 PM Reply


  • News of Kempton abandonment following very serious matter in stabling area involving a “lad” is terrible to hear, sure everyone will pass on their best wishes / commiserations, does not sound good. A sport we all love and these lads/lassies work incredibly hard and long hours for peanuts for the love of horses. So sad.

    Ian@SP2A 14/10/17 9:40 PM Reply


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