Members Daily Post: 13/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newmarket

None

 

York 

2.45 –

Zabeel Prince (all hncps) 14,30 3/1 WON 3/1> 15/8 

Zwayaan (micro age) 14,30  H1 8/1 4th  10/1 

4.30-

Atletico (all hncps) 14,30  I3 9/1 UP

Escalating (micro runs) 25/1 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot

3.10 –

Ballyoptic (all hncps) 14,30 H1 I1 G1 11/4 UP 

Beer Goggles (hncp hurdle) I1 G3 8/1 WON 8/1 > 16/1

(26.00 BFSP) (qualified Jumps Strat #1 … 11.00+ BFSP, set min odds) 

 

4.20 –

Lagavara (all hncps) 14,30  9/1 3rd 5/1

Ayla’s Emperor (hncp h) H3 I1 9/1 UP

5.25 – Crooks Peak (NHF) 11/2 WON 11/2>5/1

 

JUMPS

Bonus (old report, Irish angles)  

DownPatrick

3.25 – Celtic Monarch (hncp hurdle) ES+  40/1 UP

4.00- Ashjan (hncp hurdle) ES+ 20/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (19/90, +81)

Bet of the Day – none… I don’t wish to fully put the mockers on anything.. but some NOTES.. (these may well all blur into one at some point! maybe, ‘notes of the day!’ 🙂 As yet I am not very good at just picking out one…)

NOTES

Atletico – I’ll be having a go at 9/1, with 4 places maybe EW is wise but then again he isn’t 16s,20s+ and at £2.50/£5/£10 stakes I see that as a bit of a cop out! So, on the nose from me most likely,and clearly he’ll now finish a solid 3rd! A few things caught the eye- he is lightly enough raced whereby I think there could be more to come from him in handicaps, he drops in class and in trip here-  1/1 in 5f C3 handicaps. A fast run/stiff 5f seems to be his thing. He returned earlier in the summer after a lengthy absence and went on to run once every two weeks (on average) for then next 10 weeks or so. The 53 day break may have done him good and if this trainer wants them ready, he will be. Varian is also in red hot form… 7/43,22p last 14 days.. the place stats catching the eye. No worries on that front. He is drawn near some pace on that side of the track and who knows if there will be a bias. Oh, and SDS is booked… trainer/jockey are 12/31,21p ini turf handicaps. Not bad! I also suspect he could have ridden the Appleby qualifier in this, if he’d wanted to. So, at that price, more than enough to have a go. It is a big field sprint handicap so more hopeful than expectant, but worth a shot.

I’m going to have a go at the two in the 4.20 NA also…

Aylas Emperor – anyone with Geegeez Gold who has clicked the instant expert tab will see why at 9/1 she is worth some support. There are a couple of ratings pointers to boost confidence also. She is the been there and done it horse really- well, up to 20f…but she has run as if this extra yardage won’t be a problem and we get a price to find out. She has been running ok and drops in class from her last run, which may help. She does just look the solid option. She handles conditions, is race fit, and with this excellent young jocks claim is handicapped to win. Interesting. She should run her race. The Honeyball horse is the main danger. Unexposed, may relish the step up etc. But, she may not. Worth taking on at that price. And Bailey’s has been off for an age….

Lagavara – well we all know what will happen if I back the one above and not this one! The price and trainer form/time of year, has swayed me really. My head says I would have preferred to have seen more but she is lightly raced (only 4th handicap hurdle) and the time off may have helped. She clearly needs to build on that Perth run but she hasn’t run in a handicap during ‘twister time’ which niggled at me- this could be the time to catch her. She could just be moderate and she doesn’t hit any of the Twister angles in the test zone which is a concern. But, at that price, she’ll get £5 on the nose from my ‘section 2 bank’ to find out. I may be tempted to put some more on Aylas… (i have put more on her)

 

If you could only back one Notes horse... ?

  • Atletico (19%, 18 Votes)
  • Aylas Emperor (52%, 50 Votes)
  • Lagavara (9%, 9 Votes)
  • Nah,none for me,my money is on some others... (20%, 19 Votes)

Total Voters: 96

 

 

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Others..

..points of interest. Well, Normile, unsurprisingly, didn’t improve here handicap stats for those sent off 14/1+… and in the same vein it may be worth noting that Mr McNiff (trainer of the two ES+ quals) is 0/35,3p with handicap hurdlers sent off 14/1+ . Ashjan – i’ll keep an eye on him.. he won for us here as an ES qual a few starts back, 20/1>7/2, so the market can be a guide – there are 4 at the head of the market that look more interesting to me but he may get something, ‘just in case’ on the machine. You of course can treat those ES/ES+ how you wish, they will do fine over time, they will find nice priced winners that make no sense on paper! And the point of systematic strategies is not to over-think, something I do like doing every now and then 🙂

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Quick re-cap…

Trans Express…  a couple of things to note… his price held steady from the evening 16s/14s, through to the morning, 8/9am or so.. I hope you got a decent price. He was then tipped by Timeform I believe which caused an initial crash with some money from connections no doubt also. ‘Alhart’ Al? chipped in with a superb write up, and the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ poll put him forward with the most votes also. That is a 2nd and a winner now from those two polls… something of interest there.. and from a good sample of 100 votes. I’ll try and do some more and close them off for midday,but you can click to see the results anytime you please. And if I am being honest, he got my normal ES stake… but my confidence was dampened a bit (and not elevated to ‘notes’) as he was rock bottom of both geegeez speed and HRB ratings.. I didn’t mention that as not to sway any opinion… he was solid in Inform though… so, one for the trainer stats there, ahead of any scientific ratings and a reminder that if the price is good, not to be put off! A timely reminder, but that is why the ‘fusion’ approach works. A good start for ES+  . And of course he won for Strategy #2 also. On we go.

Nice to find an ok priced winner of the last at Worcester as well, making all as hoped for. They messed up their going there.. changed to Good to Firm after the first hence a load of NRs, which decimated the card. I’d be furious if I was there in truth. No excuse for that.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

4.55 NA – Twist On Ginge (m1/3/4/6) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Below you can find the links to the new Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2017/18  report plus the Elite Squad/+ angles. Feel free to use these in any way you wish. Please do not share with any non members. There will be the odd typo in there somewhere, there always is. It gets to this stage of the ‘research cycle’ and it all blurs into one- so do shout if you spot anything odd! These are the basis for everything that now follows in the Jumps part of Section 1. I will be adding a bonus report looking at Ireland, as no doubt there will be the odd stat worth following over there- albeit they are never usually that strong, bar Mr McNiff at Down Patrick above. 

 

JUMPS 2017/18: CLICK HERE>>>>

ELITE SQUAD 2017/18: CLICK HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

43 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh

    N.Abb has a couple more races with quals

    4.20 – Lagavara (all Hc’s)

    Aylas Emperor (HcH)

    5.25 – Crooks Peak (NHF)

    I’ve also got Ballyoptic as a NTD m7 ?

    To drive to York races I would cross Harrogate (Rd) and pass Roundhay Park so that’s my double sorted out tomorrow.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 12/10/17 7:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      Thanks for that… this time I have simply ignored the rest of my notepad haha- you can almost spot the moment I was distracted by cheering the winner of the 5.30 Worc! My brain fades are like London busses, and I had been doing so well! (relatively)

      NTD.. I don’t have a micro 7…. the hncp hurdles, 17/2<, aged 6/7 are just a 'note' really, rather than a micro- use as you please, albeit he is on the short side. The other are micros in part due to the substance of the stats. Josh

      Josh 12/10/17 8:02 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh, hence the ? . I wasn’t sure if it was official. I’ve got it written down but a gap from the rest.

        titus_a_duxass 12/10/17 8:20 PM Reply


  • Is Black Friday 210Y a topical tip – as it’s 13th?
    New trip (needed) in first h’cap is the logical view.
    Any views about the draw? 17?

    chrisrees 12/10/17 7:38 PM Reply


    • May have to have a nibble at that now you have mentioned it! Trainer is 1/4,2p in 2yo handicaps, doesn’t have many.. and also 2/7,5p flat handicap debutants I think… draw looks fine.. from stats I can see middle/high is favoured- importantly the two in stalls 16 and 14 like to get on with it, and are the consistent front runners in this, so should get a good toe into the race. Ticks a few boxes, it being topical the main one!! 🙂 Oh he is top GG speed ratings also…

      Josh 12/10/17 8:06 PM Reply


      • The speed ratings man at attheraces has Black Friday top rated too,may be worth a few shillings for fun,great work on the jumps stats,plenty to go to war with,I think Chepstow is traditionally the start of the Jumps Season,used to be dominated by Nicholls and Martin Pipe way back,not now though

        gearoid180468 12/10/17 10:35 PM Reply


      • Josh, as far as I can see McLintock did not have a 2yo winner from 2002 -2015 only 7 animals, 0/26 runs (mdns and Handicaps). So on a bigger sample looks like 1/30. Can’t lump nurseries in with older handicaps imho
        Hugh

        alpha2 13/10/17 11:12 AM Reply


        • should have said mdns and nurseries in the brackets

          alpha2 13/10/17 11:13 AM Reply


          • Hi Hugh,
            yep agree about lumping nurseries in with older handicaps, hence why such stats are stripped out of my TTP flat reports, as well as 3YO only- I think that’s what may help give an edge/unique.. as a lot of generic trainer handicap stats out there would count them all together. very important to treat 3yo+ 4yo+ separately…

            to your other point… well we will disagree on approach there- looking back past the last 5 years for a trainer record is pointless in my opinion.. too much changes, including MO, owners, types of horse they buy, training methods etc etc etc

            The last 2 years she has upped her all handicaps handicap debut approach, having never done that before..2/7,5p all flat handicaps.. and that 1/4,2p in 2Yo handicaps is last 5 years, and that is what I will go on- suggests a change in approach, or bloodstock agent etc- who knows- but for a big of fun, the name was the ‘way in’! – there was enough there- in general i wouldn’t go near nurseries if you paid me.

            enjoy Newmarket, some nice types on show.
            Josh

            Josh 13/10/17 11:23 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris,

      Someone else may have stats to prove my answer incorrect but I would say there is no, or not enough, bias @ 6f to make a difference. It’s straight and well drained. Hadn’t registered in my ever decreasing grey matter that it was Fri 13th. umm I do like fun bets on such things.

      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 12/10/17 8:13 PM Reply


  • josh with the twister running twist on ginge first time over fences wondered if there are any stats for the twisters horses first time over fences

    paul 12/10/17 8:25 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul, there are always stats in these parts 🙂 (well, trainer related anyway)…
      Just had a look… 2014-…. 6/45,11p all runners… the market seems to be some sort of guide, 0/20,5p, those sent off 6/1 or bigger SP. So, those sent off 5/1<, are 6/25,10p. All runners 0 runs last 90 days, 4/20,2p. Not enough there to be put off necessarily, if you like the price- nor enough there to be overly bullish! Josh

      Josh 12/10/17 8:33 PM Reply


  • thanks for that josh for such big stable ithink we need market support .

    paul 12/10/17 8:48 PM Reply


  • A quick look at my tracker for today.
    I can fly 2.25 Newmarket.
    I noted O’Brien usually sends his first time outs just to get a feel of things a very small percentage of them actually win first time out and the ones that do are worth a close look.

    Warren bottomley 13/10/17 12:26 AM Reply


  • morning Josh,

    thanks for the ES jumps updates, any reason for Newton Abott not being included ?

    Kevin

    Kevin Goodchild 13/10/17 7:51 AM Reply


    • Hi Kevin,
      Those ES updates stem from the new main Jumps stats (winter jumps) which exclude all summer only tracks.. Newton Abbot is Summer Only (it is their last meeting today, until next May/June time I think).. and come that time their will be a new summer jumps/stats guide, with any ES highlighted. Other Summer only tracks, excluded from the Winter Jumps… Stratford/Perth/Cartmel/Worcester. They will all return next summer/their final meetings of the year will be around now.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 7:56 AM Reply


      • aaarrgghhhhhh. Ok. **thumbs up**

        Kevin Goodchild 13/10/17 8:36 AM Reply


  • Cheers Josh for the new guides + good winners y’day!

    FWIW, Downpatrick wouldn’t have any bets at the moment for me. I expect the first two favs to win…in the second, another Supreme syndicate horse runs, they are hopeful rather than positive. He needs top of the ground, and whilst its Yielding now…there is rain forecast for most of the day, so i would say they are hoping there’s not been too much by 2.50…another thing i count against him is he is stepping up from 2m to 2m6 at DPK, which is 3 miles with the hill easily. Mullins often does run his horses over exaggerated trips in maidens as he isn’t too concerned about the trip at that level but for me the combination of the ground and big trip increase will be to his detriment!

    Looking forward to the 4.35 as well, it’s probably the highest class of race i can remember at the track…4th in Galway hurdle turning up at Dpk on his next start…well i never!He should win easy at no price!

    Have backed I Can Fly at Newmarket as well, pretty taking on debut, only concern is sometimes when they win like that they don’t learn anything and can find it all a bit different when upped in class! Delano Roosevelt is the one that springs to mind recently of that happening!

    Jack 13/10/17 9:23 AM Reply


    • I’m on I can fly too.
      You maybe right and It might not of learnt anything.
      But given that very few of O’briens horses win first time.
      the fact that it did and I would imagine this is one of his top string horses commands respect wherever it is sent nto

      warren bottomley 13/10/17 12:21 PM Reply


  • hi josh where do you do your research from in getting the angles for the TTP reports.

    steve 13/10/17 10:20 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve, horse race base.. i’ll do a video demonstrating the method some point soon.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 10:22 AM Reply


      • thanks josh for that , another question on the two mcniff horses for today that are ES i can’t find where these came from anywhere as in reports that you do .

        steve 13/10/17 10:56 AM Reply


        • They are from the ‘old’ TTP Jumps report,as per note above the qualifiers… i have yet to research new Bonus Irish angles so just used them, as have been doing since start last season/sept-oct time.

          Josh 13/10/17 11:00 AM Reply


          • could you post up a link to that old report josh please

            steve 13/10/17 11:27 AM Reply


            • I have emailed you Steve. Josh

              Josh 13/10/17 11:46 AM Reply


  • Josh
    I have had look thru Inform today and picked out what I think are the outstanding bets. I’m no expert in your field but here goes.
    Oh forgot to mention all my bets on these selections are placed via Bet 365 thanks to bets credits, they gave it to me twice by mistake but didn’t take it back. Lol
    1.50N To Wafij 6/1
    3.35N Nyalati 18/1
    2.45Y Cote D Azur 9/1
    3.20Y Awesome 9/2
    3.55Y Face the Facts 10/1
    I will have a £ ew acc just in case.

    GL guys today hope for another day like yesterday.

    Mike

    mickeydee 13/10/17 10:38 AM Reply


    • GL Mike,
      I would point out I am no expect with Inform and how to use their excellent content! 🙂 I simply use the master ratings column to cross reference with the qualifiers in section 1 above.
      I mainly use geegeez/HRB for any further subjective analysis, but that is through familiarity.. and I could/should start looking at Inform cards a bit more to help with that maybe, or some of the other ratings columns etc.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 10:42 AM Reply


  • I do not think that I can remember such a competitive days racing today. So many 1’s in the form of the many runners. Not a day to be too confident.
    At Newmarket, I will go with the O’Brien/Moore combo in the first two races, Battle of Jericho and I Can Fly. I will lay Limato in the 3.00. I think that she may be past her best in a competitive race. I like Laurens at the price in the 3.35 against the O’Brien team. Not much wrong with her form. I will have a punt at 125/1 on Mia Tesoro in the 5.20. She has a bit to do but can be good on her day.
    At York in the 2.45 the 12 last year, Highland Colori and Home Cummins go again and have dropped in the weights since then. I do like Star Rock off her handicap mark in the 3.55 and hope that the horse can go on from here?
    At Newton Abbot the Nicholls tem gets rolled out and Coln Tizzard and Philip Hobbs have runners. I am putting in Diego Du Charmil, 2.35, in as my banker. I will also back as Josh Suggests Ayla’s Emperor in the 4.20. I also think Bramble Brook may appreciate the step up in distance in the 4.55.
    Onto the sand at KP. I will put in a couple of outsiders put up by Gary Priestley, 5,45 Bubbly Bailey and 8.15 Presumido.

    So some singles plus some cross trebles with the two outsiders in at KP to stoke up the dividend.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 13/10/17 10:51 AM Reply


    • V competitive indeed, really limiting my bets today….agree with Limato, if there was a little give in the going i’d have Massaat much closer to Limato than he currently is. Back to 7f and he’s been mixing it with the best as well. Arguably as good recent form as Limato, give or take a little! Laurens i watched last time and backed, not sure she’d be carrying my cash this time..Sizzling is no Obrien star, and she got near Laurens….have her down as a test horse for obrien in regards to this race. I would give an e/w chance Efaadah as well

      Jack Houston 13/10/17 11:50 AM Reply


  • Going to Newmarket today but not taking pictures so will try to tweet any impressions.
    Hugh

    alpha2 13/10/17 11:15 AM Reply


  • A day for leaving the Trans Express profits settle in our banks,plenty of good racing at Chepstow tomorrrow

    gearoid180468 13/10/17 12:02 PM Reply


  • Anyone got anything for tonight it would be appreciated. heading to bar…probably won’t be betting much as dundalk is a dodgy track! But i will of course have a look at lunch, but if anyone has any strong fancies let me know.

    Jack Houston 13/10/17 1:06 PM Reply


    • I got a couple of quid on Jaqen H’ghar in the 8pm. Interesting jockey mount for that one.

      warren bottomley 13/10/17 3:53 PM Reply


    • think Lady Joanna Vassa 5.45 kempton should go well , didn’t keep straight if it had done think it would have won , only beaten half a length , inexperienced lady jockey on board then , tonight another one ( 7lb claimer jack osborn ) , has stall 1 so should go off in front , and still on a good handicap mark .

      steve 13/10/17 5:12 PM Reply


  • Celtic Monarch is moving in right direction 25/1 generally

    gearoid180468 13/10/17 1:56 PM Reply


  • Maybe I should open a betfair account missed it Purley on price this morning.

    warren bottomley 13/10/17 3:25 PM Reply


    • Ah, damn, well that part 2 of strategy #1 is meant to cover drifters, in any case his SP drifted to 16/1 also. But the BFSP min odds approach is advised as it ensures no need to monitor prices- can’t really have an advised strategy where prices have to be monitored, the min SP 11.00 can be set at time that suits you, when they don’t qual in morning as under 10/1.
      There will be plenty more where that has come from, if you can monitor prices then do it that way, as if they go 10/1+ SP, they will usually be 11.00+ BFSP
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 3:27 PM Reply


  • Lauren’s game as you like. Didn’t expect that! That god I didn’t bet as I would’ve had magical or September lol thought it looked a very strongly run race too so a nice performance considering she was on the pace most of the way

    Jack 13/10/17 3:47 PM Reply


  • Betting gods against me today. Backed September – got beaten a nose after getting no sort of run and then discovered that I forgot to back Beer Goggles who won at 16/1!!!

    steved 13/10/17 5:17 PM Reply


    • Don’t check the BFSP Steve! gulp… we have all been there, and will be again… annoying when a strategy qual if you back systematically but somehow have to find a way of dealing with it- after swearing, staring out the window,punching the couch! 🙂 (well,that’s what I do haha)

      Josh 13/10/17 5:30 PM Reply


  • Glad that wasn’t me I would be most upset can’t believe the price another good week ☺

    steve 13/10/17 5:43 PM Reply


  • All I can say is BALLS!! Add me to the list of members who missed beer goggles 🙁 totally went over my head even though I’ve made the same mistake before. Must pay more attention! Haha.

    Matt M 13/10/17 6:09 PM Reply


    • I’ve used stronger words than when missing one of those! Have done before, will again- it happens. It will be a bit easier when the flat is out the way and there is not ‘strategy crossover’ which even scrambles my head at times.
      There will be more of those so I wouldn’t worry too much. Albeit that won’t make you feel much better at this moment in time!
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 6:12 PM Reply


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