Free Daily Post: 13/10/17 (complete)

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

3.00 Newm- Dabya (any odds)

 

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A horse of interest…

5.20 Newmarket.. Chain of Daisies 5/1-  WON 5/1>7/2 (made all,hacked up)

I thought looked interesting from a pace angle… she won this race in 2015 and at the back end of last year beat Ulysses, who has franked that form somewhat this season. I suspect this has been the target since the last run… I think she should be able to dominate here and get an easy lead. Harry Bentley gets the leg up and at the last meeting here the front end was the place to be. If he can go a steady gallop and then kick, he could have plenty of these in trouble. We shall see. Maybe 5s is short enough but may be worth some interest. We should get a run for our money, at least until 1f from home!

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • itv 7
    1:50 Newmarket
    Mrs Gallagher
    J: Josephine, Gordon
    T: W, Jarvis
    16/1
    2:25 Newmarket
    I Can Fly
    J: R L, Moore
    T: A P, O’Brien
    3/1
    2:45 York
    Zabeel Prince
    J: S De, Sousa
    T: R, Varian
    3/1
    3:00 Newmarket
    Gifted Master
    J: W, Buick
    T: H, Palmer
    8/1
    3:35 Newmarket
    Magic Lily
    J: W, Buick
    T: C, Appleby
    8/1
    3:55 York
    Dominating
    J: F, Norton
    T: M, Johnston
    8/1
    4:10 Newmarket
    Here And Now
    J: P J, Dobbs
    T: R M, Beckett
    12-1

    25p ew accum pays £644674.49 well iv’e got to do something to get my Harley trike 🙂

    martin whittle 13/10/17 5:37 AM Reply


    • forgot to add iv’e backed them all but just fun bets 6-1 and above £1 ew under 6’s £2 win
      just a couple of other fun bets
      n3-00 Dabiyah 11-2
      n4-10 First Nation 14-1
      y3-20 Awesome 11-2

      martin whittle 13/10/17 5:57 AM Reply


    • I would let the bookie off the 49p.

      martin colwell 13/10/17 9:42 AM Reply


  • 420 Newton Abbot. Aylas Emperor ew or w/p 10/1 Lad crooks.
    Claimer takes off a useful 7 which can make this one competetive now dropping in class and he has useful place stats for the trainer and rides here well.
    A stat angle i used was returning quickly 11 days so i went back 7 and forward 7 and trainers stats for hcp hurdlers is impressive 15/72 +22lsp 47% place A/e 1.34. Horse has ran here b4 and i thought was a few points to big now dropping in grade.

    james bull 13/10/17 8:40 AM Reply


    • I am taking the advice of the great Phil Bull and
      studying one trainer for a year.

      I have selected Harry Fry for the exercise
      will give up dates how the research is going

      anyone out there who know anything about the stable
      feel free to update me
      Pete

      peter 13/10/17 8:50 AM Reply


      • This is a great way to specialise. In fact, I’ve advised people to do the same with football and just choose one club to focus on and that way you have an edge – and you do not have to always support the team! Same with Harry Fry; you can learn about his methods, use of headgear, favourite tracks, if he’s worth supporting when sending a lone runner, who is his favourite jockey – lots of angles to play with.

        Wayward Lad 13/10/17 1:38 PM Reply


        • Thanks Wayward Lad loved the horse heart breaking up the Cheltenham hill a few times with my money on.

          if you picked a football to follow betting wise would it be a high profile premiership team
          or a team from a much more obscure league
          be it foreign or the lower English leagues.
          I have often thought if you could get reliable info about
          a smaller team that would really help
          I remember an interview Gary Wiltshire gave after he lost everything on Frankie
          that he got a lot back backing in the Scottish second division.

          if you got a dozen people each taking one club in a minor league(not to minor to make betting impossible)

          you would be miles ahead of the bookies if you pooled the info

          peter 13/10/17 3:33 PM Reply


    • Good luck James, yep she qualifies in Members’ post against some trainer stats, and I have given her a strong mention in my notes. Have had a good go at 9/1, which looked a few points too big. The one solid horse in the race I think, and comes here fit. The unexposed/lightly raced ones have questions to answer in context of their price. With any luck we have landed on the winner. (saver on the Twister horse but she is weak in market)
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/17 9:23 AM Reply


      • Fingers crossed.
        The honeyball horse is the one i fear. Gd trainer jock stats. The few that have been running have gone well. Unexposed and the trainer does well when breaking down on hrb female only hcp hurdles. System in itself with a 30% SR +50 odd lsp. 3/1 is short enough but can see it hacking up but have to stick with the value.

        james bull 13/10/17 2:06 PM Reply


  • Football – in Fridays games I like Cardiff at odds against away to Birmingham. Cardiff continue to perform at the top whilst Birmingham are still trying to sort out which of the 50 players they have to pick. Also whilst Steve Cotterill is rated as a coach he has struggled as a manager in the past. I think that Burton may be set to struggle at the bottom of the league this season and with Bristol City going well I see a home win and a few goals.
    Onto Saturday, the lunchtime game may struggle for goals? Liverpool’s Brazilians have been on their travels this past week and that may catch up with them. Mourinho will likely ask his players to sit in and go on the break? A draw perhaps and low scoring. I would lay Arsenal at 8/13 at Watford, who have a few players back fit again. I like Barnsley at home at 10/3 v an uninspiring Middlesbrough.
    Fleetwood are strong at home and Shrewsbury are away at odds against v a struggling Plymouth. Notts County may also be too strong at home for Barnet.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 13/10/17 11:06 AM Reply


  • Biased but I think Birmingham can really start to finally rise now that the “Harry experiment” is over. True they have too many players but they have too many good players some signed by Rowett who were not far off play offs just last season and a nice influx since, who just need some tactical nous to help them.

    Some very strong stories too coming out of Stans that Harry and Kevin Bond paid little or no attention to pre season training, result a half fit team not prepared for 3 games a week and hence a glut of hamstring injuries that decimated the forward options. Cotterill created a massive impression last 3 games of last season and with Carsley as No 2 they will have worked players hard for 10 days to build up core fitness and also worked on some basic but simple tactics.

    Cotterill did very well as a manager at Cheltenham and Bristol City and as well as anyone at Notts Forest and after sacking the best Manager in the Division whilst 6th last December and employing a pair of clowns; hopefully right 3rd time!

    As Sir Alex said many time Stans is most intimidating place to go when fired up so I anticipate a “new manager” bounce especially as we have quality players like Jota; Adams; NDoye to come back in when fully fit…I think Warnock has done a terrific job at Cardiff (as has Big Mick at Ipswich) but may be they have had their “good runs” now and it is such a competitive Divison any one of 20 sides could win 5 on the bounce and then lose the next 5; Wrnock also reports a few of his more important players have returned from internationals with niggles…

    Given the vagaries of the division; provided Birmingham start well – a home win

    Br

    Ian SP2A 13/10/17 11:17 AM Reply


    • Forest green rovers are finding adjusting to the next level tough
      and they are third from bottom of league2
      but last weeks away point to top of the table notts county
      looks as if they are starting to come into the game

      12/5 at home to Newport looks a fair bet as I can see a big upturn in their fortunes over the next couple of months

      PETER 13/10/17 11:45 AM Reply


      • Hibs held Celtic 2-2 at Celtic park recently
        so they know they can go toe to toe with them

        Celtic will likely get through the semi against Hibs
        but 2/5 in 90 minutes seems to short and looks a lay

        peter 13/10/17 11:58 AM Reply


    • I am not so convinced by Cotterill long term but we shall see. Another pick for Saturday is +2.5 goals Palace v Chelsea. Palace are awful and if Chelsea turn up thi should be locked up early and you will be down the pub with your winnings before the final whistle.
      I wonder how much the expectation at Forest Green affects performances at home?
      Lay Celtic? I prefer HT Draw/FT Celtic.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 13/10/17 1:07 PM Reply


      • My best football bet of the weekend is Athletico Madrid at 2/1 to beat Barcalona.

        Athletico are very tough at home and Barcelona as a city are going through turmoil
        with the independence issue
        Messi could be physically and emotionally knackered are dragging his country
        through the world cup at altitude in quito almost singlehanded.
        I have a feeling he gave his soul to that game
        and he will be well below par this weekend
        if he turns on a dazzling performance he really will be superman
        but I think he will have a very quite game

        Athletico are a very physical side and I expect them to rough him up early doors
        2/1 Athletico seems a very fair price in the circumstances

        peter 13/10/17 1:25 PM Reply


        • Game of opinions but Barca have a very strong record versus athletico away also I feel athletico are a team in decline, they were thoroughly outplayed by Chelsea in the CL and Barca are a much better in possession team. Also in their new stadium the home field advantage for athletico will be further diminished. Barca DnB at evens is my bet for this

          JamesP 13/10/17 2:03 PM Reply


          • James I fancy Athletico and you fancy Barca
            sods law it will be a draw
            still if it is then you get your money back and I lose but Barca are a much better team with Messi
            100% and I think he may not be at his best
            Pete

            peter 13/10/17 2:44 PM Reply


            • Barcas three front players
              Messi, Saurez and Paulino all played the full 90 minutes
              in their world cup qualifiers and have to travel back from South America
              and the man supply man Iniesta is still out injured
              Althletico to win and barca not to score
              playing 0-0 1-0 and 2-0 to athletico
              with main bet on 1-0

              peter 13/10/17 2:58 PM Reply


  • One to watch in the big 1m handicap at York….

    Tha’ir

    Moved from Godolphin to Appleby in the summer after a period on the sidelines where you’d have to be thinking he picked up an injury at Meydan in Jan 16.

    Unsurprisingly down the field in the Cambridgeshire, the yard seem to think he just got tired. Which then leads them to be seeming to think he’ll run better at shorter.

    That appears to be totally at odds with Godolphin, who reported at one point the horses optimum distance is around 10f…hence why campaigned with some good successes at around that distance.

    But….

    If you go back enough Tha’ir was running fairly close at group level at a mile against the likes of Olympic Glory and Toronado.

    You’d have to be thinking that was too far back and it will be too short now, and especially if he’s become conditioned to 10f plus racing.

    Did lead or race prominently in a few previous though, and isn’t beyond possibility that he could outclass a number today and finish closer up than the current odds indicate.

    Yard don’t seem over confident, maybe even slightly subdued in appraisal…which sets Tha’ir as one to watch for signs that he still has it today (without finishing too close up to ruin the price next time), and then take consider deeper if they go back up in distance before the end of the season (or maybe on the AW given some of the good Meydan performances).

    Steve C 13/10/17 11:50 AM Reply


    • very best of luck with that Steve and a real dark horse as you indicate.

      Did have a long hard look at him this morning, especially with his connections but could just not fathom whether he is a very well handicapped horse waiting to fire or simply a pale shadow of a once good horse/prospect.

      Will be very interesting to watch and any sign of a return to even 90% of his potential may mark him down as a nice winter AW horse, where these days a lot of cash to be made!

      Ian SP2A 13/10/17 11:55 AM Reply


      • Yep that’s the hope…some evidence from today and take the plunge next time at the ‘right’ distance.

        We know these types can come back with a vengeance and a fill your boots price (Arctic Fire in the County as a perfect example)

        Steve C 13/10/17 12:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m paying close attention to Star Rock at York this afternoon in the 3:55 as she held Cribbs Causeway when they met at Newmarket and I think her 5lb rise for that win is nowhere near enough. That run was her first since May so she is entitled to improve for it.

    Wayward Lad 13/10/17 1:42 PM Reply


    • Ah useful info, I will have a good look! Cheers, GL

      Josh 13/10/17 2:48 PM Reply


  • Some interest elsewhere today….

    3.25 in Ireland Quelle belle vie has had a lot of chances but still may have some untapped ability. Likely soft ground shouldn’t inconvenience, not a great field outside the obvious, may be ready to show a bit more for new stable after 2 runs, regular jockey up, has won on the horse before, CD winner, and by Khalkevi. 33-1 looks too big. (Cue same as yesterday when my Hughies Bay at 130 BF decided to jump past 15 horses in the space of 2 hurdles but couldn’t reach the odds on fav who’d flown!). Maybe a small FC with Poormans Hill is the call.

    Heir to a throne 5.35 Y currently 40-1 could find this right up his street. Capable Siyouni gelding, still time at only 4 to prove better than average C4, and a lot of these are just average C4 with notable exception Twin Appeal who’s run some good races this year in higher class. Small stake only given size of field.

    Secret Eye 7.45 Kempton An interesting 90,000 Guineas Street Cry who may prove to be reasonable class. 50-1 in places, blinkers on for first run. I don’t have access to anything which will easily indicate how well a FTO kempton 2YO might go for Paul Cole, but he can produce a good class runner. The blinkers are a little worry, but there’s no hard evidence they’re on because of a problem. Probably one to watch for signs of future ability.

    Elsewhere the bumper at Newton Abbott might be fun. Mullins may be introducing a good one in Westerberry (generally 12-14 now after being 18 earlier) and Michael Scudamore with Wimpole (down to 12s now from much bigger earlier) who seems fairly bullish if there’s no rain. Greatrex fancies his to go well and of course it wouldn’t be a surprise if any one of 5 others took this either. Anything can happen in a bumper though and provided at least between 20 and 55 is available on BF either Westerberry or Wimpole they’ll be worth a small interest. If Westerberry isn’t up to it today it’ll pay to follow especially if getting sent a little further afield in future.

    Dundalk 5.30 Insignia Of Rank Seen a number of Epaulette 2YOs go well this year (first season). Trainer has 2 in the race, this one 44000 guineas seeming first string which leaves 6 to beat. 3 of which look out of it, leaving 2 or 3 that could easily be OK. Fortunately took the 20s on IOR earlier which allowed an EW interest, down to 12 now and not so attractive given the risk.

    Steve C 13/10/17 2:13 PM Reply


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