Members Daily Post: 08/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Kelso 

4.20 – Simply Ned (all hncps + hncp chase) ES 5/1 2nd 4/1 

4.50 – Catchthemoonlight (micro TJC) H3 I1 9/1 UP 

5.20-

Betancourt (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES H1 I3 9/4 UP

Chapel Stile (all hncps) ES 6/1 3rd 9/1 

Topham Bay (micro TJC) 9/1 UP (ran on again,needs further I think)

 

Uttoxeter

4.35 – A Tail of Intrigue (hncp chase) 14,30 G3

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/65, +22.5) (total: 17/137, +19.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (18/81, +85.5)

5.20 Kelso – Chapel Stile – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 3rd 9/1

This one looks fascinating and with this profile is a must bet at 6/1+ really. This is the 5th start of his life, the second in a handicap. Having looked outpaced over 16f he steps up to 20 f here which could be the making of him. He may well have grown/developed over the summer also. I will have to trust the trainer that the ground is fine. He may well have wanted decent going all along, which could be another reason for improvement. OR it could be too lively and he fails to pick up when asked. This is the kind of profile where he could have a bucket load in hand and at the price that going unknown is worth a play. A quick look at the geegeez racecard and I can see that in the last two years Richards is 8/37,12p moving horses in distance by 20%+ from last start. He is 4/14,6p with horses having their second start in handicaps. Fitness shouldn’t be a problem, if he wants him fit… over this distance, in handicap hurdles, Richards is 8/32,12p with those returning 60+ days in the last 5 years. Solid. So, he looks a must. He is ES anyway but he really ‘could be anything’ in these conditions.

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NOTES

Topham Bay… UP well I will be having a smaller nibble in this one with CS above the main bet. BUT, this is only her second start in a handicap- so we have that unexposed/should be more to come foundation. Why should she improve on that last run? Well it is her second start after a break. She steps up another 2f  – I think she looks slow and if needing 3 miles+ already. She could just be moderate but it is early days and she did ‘run on’ the last day- admittedly through beaten horses. She also gets a first time tongue tie. So, there is enough there at 9/1 for one of those £5 on the nose jobs. I’ve got a few ‘points# to play with 🙂 (the losers will come soon, they must.. I think!)

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Others…

Simply Ned- 2nd well he deserves a mention and as he is an ES I will have a go (i’ve upgraded to ‘a good go’ 🙂 ) at 5s, which is just about ok. He will be fit, he has won this race twice before, and this is usually the time to catch him. Ellison isn’t great with chasers after a break, they usually need it- 3/54 all chasers 60+ days the last 5 years. Double Ws looks the main danger and if a1 probably takes this-but I am still not convinced on him really over this trip – there are two front runners in this that will help him. That Aintree win wasn’t that strong for me but he is entitled to a big season.

Betancourt- well I am not backing him at that price, but clearly I won’t be falling off my seat if he beats the two above. He looks progressive and won easily the last day. He steps up in class but is entitled to be fav. He should run his race. But the two above are 6/1 and 9/1. Simple as that.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

3.30 Uttox- Templeross (m2) UP

4.35 Uttox – Brownville (m1/2/3/5) UP

 

Irish Angles

4.55 Lim- Wishmoor (12/1< best, 1x 66/1 winner) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

nothing today.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • Arkwrisht 4.25 limerick.
    I do believe this was the horse that finished 2nd in the kerry national that was worth noting.

    Warren bottomley 07/10/17 7:37 PM Reply


    • It was but did you see his jumping!!! The top weight is the class horse but can burst blood vessels. Good luck with any bets.

      martin colwell 07/10/17 7:46 PM Reply


      • yep jumping will have to be better- does go the other way round which may help, and soft instead of heavy may help slightly. I just can’t get over how he got that close, despite all those errors, and rider losing irons after the last . I think 6s is fair for a nibble – he could have a bundle in hand still, if it all clicks. Prob UR at first now! Jockey change also. May help, may not. And should get better with experience in theory. He does just seem the ‘obvious’ one though, and that rarely pays off!

        Josh 07/10/17 8:49 PM Reply


        • Lots of runners to get in the way. 6/1 too short for me. Good luck though.

          martin colwell 07/10/17 9:13 PM Reply


  • Of tomorrow’s qualifiers theres a couple that look interesting to my eye, firstly Chapel Stile is upped 4 1/2 furlongs and has only had 4 runs over hurdles. Trainer has a 27% win s/r (17/63) with his distance movers of 1 furlongs or more (up or down) who’ve only had 0-4 starts in the same NH code since 2014. Looks to be a bit of early support as well.

    A Tale of Intrigue also looks pretty interesting, first start for Fergal O’Brien who’s horses are absolutely flying atm. He also has a very good record in the last year with new horses to the yard, 29% win s/r (8/28). Strategy #1 qualifier as well so think i’ll have a decent go on it.

    jamesP 07/10/17 9:29 PM Reply


  • Thanks for inviting me back Josh, it’s been a decent start and I appreciate the strategy approach which is useful for filtering selections and encourages me to be more selective with the bets. A question for you, what do the letters/numbers in the micro system test zone relate to?
    Many thanks
    Kev

    kevo19 07/10/17 10:54 PM Reply


  • Ah apologies I’ve just found the report, I can see Brownville meets 4 of the Twister micro systems & Templeross just one

    Cheers

    kevo19 08/10/17 12:46 AM Reply


  • Hi josh currently on the train from Prague to pardubice, managed to find some very helpful English speaking Czechs to guide us!!
    Really looking forward to the day armed with martins info (thanks again)
    Going with Ange Guardian in the big one as “tipped ” by Martin & an extremely small ew on sixtyseven, not sure if anybody else has any thoughts?

    Harry Sandells 08/10/17 8:38 AM Reply


    • Enjoy Harry, promises to be a great day out… I have no views haha and will be following Martin in.. he ‘tipped’ the 1-2 last year to his friends/twitter etc, so hopefully can do the same again! Have fun. Yep you have to bet on sixtyseven, a must!
      Josh

      Josh 08/10/17 8:51 AM Reply


    • Dont forget to sample Czech beer. Lots of varieties and usually good quality. It would be wrong not to.

      martin colwell 08/10/17 10:41 AM Reply


      • Hi josh on the train back to Prague, great day would highly recommend it, didn’t realise they were all cross country races. Broke even I would say had the first 2 winners at small prices, then the 4th races at about 7/2 I think? & managed to have the winner in the velka purely because it was GB bred. Tried the local beverage Martin, very nice too, so nice I had to have several & at £1.20 would be very rude to say no!!
        Top day & if you are a racing fan must be sampled
        Thanks again for both yours & martins assistance, very much appreciated

        Harry sandells 08/10/17 5:37 PM Reply


        • Czech beer is very nice at £1.20 a pint. Glad you had a good day. You missed my 18/1 winner at Uttoxeter though. Enjoy Prague, top place.

          martin colwell 08/10/17 5:55 PM Reply


  • I don`t like “tipping” sites at all , but, noticed that my racing.com have NTD doing a piece every Sunday for them. It`s like having it straight from the horses mouth so to speak.
    He fancies TEMPLEROSS over BROWNVILLE today and gives his reasons also ,well worth a look ,as always though it`s a case of what does a trainer know…..

    Stewart 08/10/17 8:43 AM Reply


    • You can get NTDs views on his runners every day on his FB page, normally posted up by around midday…only problem is…..as you’ll see when you’ve looked a few times…virtually everything he runs ‘should go well’!!

      Still always worth checking out though if you fancy one…though I’d suggest don’t be put off something else on to one of his by what he’s written unless class is the main factor.

      Steve C 08/10/17 9:45 AM Reply


      • Re NTD. They all have a chance syndrome. Few years ago I had a mate who had a leg in a couple with B Ellison and all the trainer would ever say was “e/w chance” Mind he stood in for connections at Uttoxoter one day, Dunwoody was riding a 33/1 rag for them and he was confident he would get it into the first 3. He did. I found Trainer Quotes a bit similar everything had an EW chance albeit I had a couple of tasty multiples up utilising the info

        Tony Tolhurst 08/10/17 8:16 PM Reply


    • Information is always useful but I certainly would never let you be put off a horse by what they say,if you like the price… i remember on here last season with a 16/1 Kim Bailey winner at Huntingdon.. handicap hurdle debut, step up in trip, soft going etc… pre race he had nothing positive to say and if you listened to him you wouldn’t have touched the horse – worked awfully at home, slow etc… well he came alive on the race track. Always trust your won eyes/approach first, in context of price. I don’t tend to care too much for what trainer’s actually say! Clearly every now and then you get a gem. But yep never let them put you off one.

      Josh 08/10/17 10:42 AM Reply


  • Free post.. a look at the Munster National here…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/10/07/free-daily-post-081017-upd1/

    Josh

    Josh 08/10/17 10:25 AM Reply


  • Hi,
    it is a sunny sunday morning in Kent and the 3 dogs have dragged me around the woods sniffing out squirrels that they ultimately end up being scared of. I like the profile of Topham Bay in terms of a potential improver in the 5.20 Kelso. I also like at the price, 18/1, Dusky Raider, 5.35 Utt. It must be fit and this is not a great race. In my NH tracker I have Truckers Lodge who goes in the 2.25 Utt.

    martin colwell 08/10/17 10:46 AM Reply


    • Well done Martin, that passed me by! Nice way to end the day. Top work.

      Josh 08/10/17 6:25 PM Reply


  • 520 kelso is proving to be a nightmare for me, so will probably leave the race alone. I get your argument for Chapel Stile and would normally be keen on it, but i planned to bet all James Ewart handicappers in Oct, first one being Betancourt at Sedgefield , was 16/1 and bet into 4/1 and i missed the price and ended up not backing it, damn. Difficult to bet on that today at 5/2 ish. I also looked at Rose Dobbin runners in Oct at Kelso, she is 6 from 22, 11pl +67 over 5 yrs, has 2 in this race today. Stats are great but im going round and round and cant decide what to do!

    jamesm 08/10/17 11:28 AM Reply


    • Always a conundrum! I would suggest asking yourself whether you would be kicking yourself if X won at X price and you had nothing on. I can live with the Ewart horse winning at the odds- no worries about not backing him- I would back more losers like that at 5/2< than I would profit from long term- if you have looked at a Dobbin runner etc I'd be tempted to have something on.. as some guide in handicap hurdles 14/1-40/1 SP she is 3/120,13p.. a feeling one of those may have been here though. If you can live with a Dobbin horse winning at 14s,16s + after that comment, with no money on, then fair enough!! Living with the rest at single odds should be fine 🙂

      Josh 08/10/17 11:39 AM Reply


      • thanks Josh, will leave it i think, am on Some reign 240 kel

        jamesm 08/10/17 11:53 AM Reply


  • I know your main area of focus is on the UK racing with a micro stat or two on the Irish stuff. But are there many in here that follow Irish racing seriously? its probably the racing I follow the most so that’s why this site actually suits me as it helps me on the GB stuff.

    Jack Houston 08/10/17 12:12 PM Reply


  • I’ll be backing Song of Namibia 5.15 Navan…… ex Sir Michael Stoute and a 1mile 6f winner.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 08/10/17 12:34 PM Reply


    • Interesting Tony that Keane has went with Meades instead…but I can see the appeal at the prices. The Mullins horse is making it quite a good race to bet in, for all he is very unexposed. I thought Byrnes horse, Wonder Laish was potentially interesting at the prices. Haven’t had a bet in the race yet however.

      Anyone else fancy much in Ire today?

      Jack Houston 08/10/17 12:58 PM Reply


  • difficult to ignore the trainer change stats for W Mullins

    jamesm 08/10/17 3:14 PM Reply


    • In the 4.25? Well, easy enough in a race like that at 4/1 for a horse where in his own words, it is a fact finding mission- no idea if he will stay. They must think he will. If he does then he goes close/may win well, but not for me at the odds! Clearly won’t put anyone off him, quite the trainer uplift as well really.

      Josh 08/10/17 3:16 PM Reply


      • Oh well you won’t see an easier winner of a premier 3m handicap chase than that- has won the sodding bridle haha. Hope you had a go, I coudn’t at that price but won like a 1/2 shot!

        Josh 08/10/17 4:35 PM Reply


        • i didnt do it singularly, i have it in a double with his other ‘trainer change’ today…Gustavus V. pays 26/1 if it comes up! . I dont like it when RW holds them up like that, could easily have run into one of those fallers and been brought down. Cheers

          jamesm 08/10/17 4:53 PM Reply


          • Gustavas is going up in distance 6F I think? The sire has never had a winner anywhere near 2 miles. Big feat if Willie can get this to stay.

            martin colwell 08/10/17 4:57 PM Reply


  • hi Josh
    can i ask ?
    should Ruth Dobbins not be a monthly micro like NTD ?
    Thought id seen her name somewhere or was it last years ?

    jon egen 08/10/17 4:11 PM Reply


    • Hi Jon,
      She was in last year’s report, along with some pointers for a couple of others I think.. I decided just to put my energy into NTD this year given the stats pool was healthy for a trainer approach, and the rest more questionable from a ‘micro’ approach. Last year I took a ‘notes’ approach, which was draining doing it manually each day.. NTDs micros that I have saved is quite a bit easier!
      last year’s notes are here…

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/National-Hunt-2016.17-Sept.Oct_.pdf

      quite a lot going on in there!
      Josh

      Josh 08/10/17 4:16 PM Reply


  • Is it just me but I find that sundays are extremely hard to find winners,im thinking of just leaving betting alone on sundays in the future

    christopher jones 08/10/17 6:11 PM Reply


    • Don’t think there is too much logic to that haha, am sure we have had some very good Sunday’s on here before. We were a couple of lengths away from 5/1 and 9/1 winners. That’s how it goes. Don’t think the racing is any different to on a week day really.
      Josh

      Josh 08/10/17 6:27 PM Reply


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