Members Daily Post: 07/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newmarket (rowley)

4.25 – Crowning Glory (all hncps) H3 I1 G1 11/1 UP

5.35 –

Elysian Fields (micro class) I3 11/1 UP

Teofonic (micro runs) G3 14/1 2nd 10/1 (ahhh!) 

 

Redcar

1.40 – Sioux Frontier (2YO) ES  20/1 UP 25/1

4.30-

Khamaary (all hncps + 3yo+) ES  H1 I1 4/1 WON 4/1 > 11/2 

Rashfords Double (micro dist) G1 8/1 UP

5.05 – Katebird (all hncps + 3yo+) ES 9/1 UP

5.40 – Lydiate Lady (all hncps) H3 G3 8/1 WON 8/1>9/1 

 

Ascot

3.35 – 

Johnny Barnes (all hncps) 14,30 I3 14/1 UP

Makzeem (all hncps) 14,30 H3 8/1 4th 

Raising Sand (3yo+) I3 11/1  3rd 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Fontwell

3.05 – Dashing Oscar (hncp hurdle) H3 I1 G3 4/1 WON 4/1>5/2 

3.40 – Ashoka (hncp chase) 14 H3 I3 7/2 3rd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/65, +22.5) (total: 17/137, +19.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (17/77, +79.5)

No ‘bet of the day’… nothing I am overly bullish on, but…

 

NOTES

Teofonic… 2nd 14/1>10/1… ah so unlucky.. she was keen early so Franny had to get hold of her/cover… he then got stuck on fence when going for a gap, just has Frankie hit go on winner..the way she finished suggested that made difference but who knows. All was soon forgotten 5 minutes later… i’ll mention her but I suspect the market may guide… she is only 1/3,2p in handicaps, is 3, and steps up in distance… at 16/1 (or prob bigger BFSP as is looking a bit friendless) I will have a small dart, £2.50, maybe £5 if i’m feeling foolish- Johnston’s stats with handicappers returning 60+ days at the track are questionable but he can ready them and you never know. Breeding wouldn’t suggest she wants this far but the way she ran , esp the last day, suggests she is worth a go. The break suggests she has had issues but given that profile and the price, i’d be a tad annoyed if she won with no support

Lydiate Lady... WON 9/1 well at 8s/10s, will get a £5 on the nose.. maybe a good EW bet with 4 places, but at those odds,and staking amount, I really should just stick it on to win. Which I have. She is just a sprinter in form who has won at C5 before. What drew me in was the fact that she front runs and is perfectly drawn here- it would appear low is where you want to be on this straight sprint track. I can see her being up there for a long way- maybe something better treated grabs her late but she should give me a run for my money.

Raising Sand… 3rd 16/1 I have to mention him as he hits all of my stats in the free post for this race and I have had a go. He is a hold up horse in a race without much pace and as per that post I fancy another to make a bold bid from the front. Ian has just commented saying that there is a strong headwind at Ascot, so that may well play to those more patiently ridden. Bit of a guess up on that front now. Anyway, he hits our stats here, has a ratings pointer which is never  a bad thing, and hits all my big race stats trends. A no brainer at 11s really!

Johnny Barnes...UP  hmmm… well I should mention him as he will get a crisp £5 note of mine as he is listed above, the trainer is in red hot form, and if he returns to his form before Haydock (where he had excuses and still ran well) then he would have every chance here. I suspect he may run a big race so I will take some covering fire in a fiendishly difficult contest.  I’d want double figures on any horse in this race today, it is one of those.

With any luck one of those four may hit the board, they may all disappoint of course.. with average odd of 12/1 I will be backing plenty of losers.

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Quick re-cap.. just on Mrs Grass…  who I wouldn’t have picked out on paper without my stats/strat #2… she didn’t look like a stayer, or that she was up to C4 and was out the handicap.. BUT.. and this is why this game is so complex and just brilliant at keeping the mind ticking over… she was an example (this came to me after the race obviously,otherwise I’d have mentioned her in the notes pre race!!) of one of those where you can make a case, at the odds, simply because every other runner also has major questions… most of those probably needed the run, the fav had massive stamina questions/going questions (+both combine).. and she was fit, handled conditions/the track, and that was enough. She ran ok LTO also. She was very well placed here and everything aligned. It was a weak race. Those types are hard to spot, easier when we have our ‘ways in’ as above… but just goes to show if a horse is 0/x at the class, 0/x at the distance, and out the handicap to boot, that it can be meaningless if the oppo are all useless/have questions. The positive case for her wasn’t really about her, more the massive negatives for every other runner. Sometimes that’s all we need. Always something to think about, that’s why we like this game.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: there were a couple of interesting discussions in yesterday’s comments, in the Members’ Post.. couple of good questions from Matt and Steve that may be worth a read through, especially if you are new. You may or may not find some of that discussion useful! I will record  a video next week looking at the strategies/win %/losing runs/the options for approaching them etc.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Accord 2.30 fontwell
    This one had a write up in the guest post jumpers to follow.

    Redcar 3.20
    Inviolable spirit
    Chatburn
    Both were in a hugh folder 2yo guest report.

    Not sure if they are of any merit but I put anything of note in my tracker. Sometimes I remember why sometimes not (Mr grass).

    warren bottomley 06/10/17 9:18 PM Reply


    • Cheers Warren, GL.. do appreciate when you post up anything you have tracked for whatever reason, always useful.. and I am useless at tracking horses! Need to tidy up my game on that front.

      Josh 07/10/17 10:45 AM Reply


    • I should apologise for my extended absence posting on 2yos. I think I tried too hard and went too much for a while and got burnt out. Confidence shot to pieces and so I did not want to spread the misery although Josh lending his Opus Dei kit helped.

      As regards Chatburn he was withdrawn in the Windsor Castle but certainly took the eye. The fact that O’Meara sent him to Royal Ascot and he is a course winner twice here makes me think he is worth a spare fiver. Jason Hart up which is just ok and I would have him as a nicer colt than most of those that I have seen.

      The other one of interest is Crownthorpe. Saw him on debut over 5f and he was a big green thing who I noted as needing further despite being by Monsieur Bond. He has won over 7f and I am not sure that the drop to 6f is ideal but Fahey has put Hanagan up.

      alpha2 07/10/17 12:49 PM Reply


      • Good luck with the selections. Do not worry too much, as if it was all about studying for hours to find all the winners someone would have cracked it ages ago.

        martin colwell 07/10/17 1:38 PM Reply


    • Well done Warren, well spotted. Won well at end My flat horses all running flat!

      reillysmiley 07/10/17 3:09 PM Reply


  • There was a few interactions on how to approach things as regards staking so I will add my bit for what its worth.
    Paper trading is a waste of time because you get into a wouldn’t have backed that one,would have backed that one situation,you can back to 25p stakes and get an idea of how you are doing.If you have joined in the last week with the offer you have few months to assess if its right for you,start off with very low stakes,you don’t need that many Mrs Grass bets to double your bank,and then your backing out of profits,you can have a lot of enjoyment collecting 40 pounds on a 16/1 shot at 2.50.The most important thing is that in the great scheme of things,whether your horse wins or falls at the last in front doesn’t matter a jot.
    I thought last week that Colin Tizzard might be a bit slow off the blocks but it seems he has his string fit and ready.An under the radar jockey that does well with his chasers is Harry Cobden.Might be worth following this season,has Lillington in the 2.30 Fontwell

    gearoid180468 07/10/17 12:56 PM Reply


    • I agree re paper trading as there is nothing to lose. Start with stakes you can afford to lose if it does not go well.

      martin colwell 07/10/17 1:40 PM Reply


  • Last bit of advice I have learned from bitter experience.If a trainer has 2 in a race on the stats,whatever about the shorter riced one,don’t leave the one at 16/1

    gearoid180468 07/10/17 1:03 PM Reply


    • Amen to that G.

      tonymc 07/10/17 2:17 PM Reply


  • nice selction warren accord wins nicely well spotted from that guest list of jumps from joshs pal.got me in front on a tricky day

    paul 07/10/17 2:45 PM Reply


  • Lovely.front.running.ride.that.on.dashing.oscar.feily.at.his.best

    steve 07/10/17 3:14 PM Reply


    • That was a joy to watch, almost assumed it was another win for treble rated jumps idea as soon as I saw them circling.. given the money, and then the easy lead, that was never in much doubt. Horse still plenty to learn as well, not easiest ride in run in. Plenty more to come/in tank. He has crawled around there, ideal when on return from a break. Albeit fitness rarely an issue for Fry if he wants them straight.

      Josh 07/10/17 3:16 PM Reply


  • Yes.fry.a.good.trainer.for.me.does.well.of.course.with.nh.flat.types.and.i.remember.reading.before.on.rh.tracks

    steve 07/10/17 3:26 PM Reply


  • thanks for the comments.
    i’ll keep posting whats in my tracker for those who have missed the various guest posts and horses to watch for next time out for everyone to mull over.

    warren botoomley 07/10/17 5:21 PM Reply


  • anothergood day for the site josh , you can be proud of racingtoprofit and in my case probably others as well you are keeping me in profit against those greedy bookmakers many thanks

    paul 07/10/17 5:57 PM Reply


    • Bookies cash always smells the best! I’m in strange state of not really wanting the flat to end now, just getting going at back end of season haha. Strange world.

      Josh 07/10/17 6:04 PM Reply


  • another great day for me with 3 lovely winners that makes me 43.2 pts up for the week …many thanks josh for the invite back !

    steve 07/10/17 6:01 PM Reply


    • ha, you’re welcome.. I thought i had got my act together a bit more since your last visit. That’s how it can go with no odds caps/eyes on decent priced horses… enjoy the run.. with any luck, given the plethora of different approaches (trainer stats angles – ES- + ratings pointers + subjective interpretation/notes etc) the lows won’t be too low, the highs can be good. We will keep our feet on the ground, slow and steady over time.
      Josh

      Josh 07/10/17 6:03 PM Reply


      • yep much better this time round , can’t really remember how long ago it was now but i very much like how it goes now , always been a systems / ratings man so everything goes as they say . there will be highs and lows ……………i know that now over time …………….40 years of trying ……….but i will keep the faith and i am starting low ………..but hoping to build up steadily over time ………….if your stats from systems can stay the same plus the ratings ……then things should be ok , just need to keep my discipline and patience ………..the two things that why punters fail in the long term ……………………

        steve 07/10/17 8:32 PM Reply


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