Free Daily Post: 06/10/17 (complete)

TIPS.. None.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey combo- Live Test

3.55 Font – Antony – (14/1<)

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Members’ Content… (don’t forget you can still take up my £7 offer.. a mad price really 🙂 4 whole months… try it HERE>>>)

My ‘notes’ have been on a roll since the start of September.. 17/74, +82.5 points.(+ £412.50 to £5 win bets)  Another 10/1 winner yesterday to add to the pot. These are where I highlight horses of most interest to me from the initial list of qualifiers against my unique stats packs.

I have repeated today’s three ‘notes’ horses below. There is also a ‘bet of the day’ plus some other quality ramblings (biased) but you’ll have to join to read those 🙂

Lake Chapala – (3.20 Font) well I will back him in the same race (another horse in this is ‘bet of the day’)- I don’t have as much on as the one above- simply because Gordon has rejuvenated him and the yard is in cracking form… 3/10,5p last 14 days. Now, I suspect he may not be good enough for C3.. BUT.. he has never run in C3 so I don’t know- and he is therefore running with a very light weight on his back. He needs more than his last run but is another who may have benefited from a break and he may appreciate the bigger field/possible stronger gallop here. 12s was fair. I don’t really fancy the other qualifier in the race- at the prices! – i’d prefer double figures- does anyone improve a horse from Jessie Harrington??!! – in any case this is only his 7th hurdle start of his life so who knows. He may get something to cover my stakes on the other two! Cue utter disaster, but it will be an exciting race to watch at least. God bless a C3 handicap hurdle at Fontwell mid week as opposed to some C5 crap at Brighton! Hurrah 🙂

Espirit De Corps- (2.00 Ascot) I have backed him here- and rare for me – I have had an EW go, as well as a bit on the win side- I only ever really look at EW when 4 places,and in truth I should have just stuck it on the nose at 10s, but this horse does love placing. He is lightly enough raced and Charlton is in red hot form. He isn’t doing too much different- no distance or class move – but young Shoemark rides him for the first time and he may well ride him at home- either way some horses do seem to respond for him (20/1 winner for Amy Murphy yesterday- I messaged my White Diamond guys to ask where the ‘inside info’ was- our two horses are with Amy- and alas no one was on- unexpected! these things happen- ‘inside info’ is generally rubbish,imo – i have spent enough time in Newmarket pubs to know that) He wears the CP for a second time and is at least in form. He also has CD form which can count for plenty here. I think I was on him that day also, having qualified against the same stats. And actually, that was his last run in an all age handicap, whereas he has been in 3YO only races since. So, there are a few things to go on there. They do like holding the bugger up- I do wish they would try racing him more handily/changing tactics – maybe they will today. 10s was fair.

Master Singer – hmmm.. (4.55 Ascot) 6/1, 13/2 if you can get it, is OK.. I don’t want to over-think him too much. He is very lightly raced, drops in class, steps up in trip by 2f, yard in decent form. So, he ticks all those boxes I bang on about. He also runs for the first time on an easy surface- now, that may be a good thing. He may hate it. But at least it is… drum roll… ‘doing something different’! And a reason for why he may do more. My instinct says this is a desperate roll of the dice and he won’t be doing much. But at 6/1 I can just about,and only just, get away with a play. He could be anything still, and maybe all these conditions will unlock the potential.

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That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets.

Josh

p.s I will try and dig out some ‘Challenge Cup’ stats for tomorrow, a juicy heritage handicap to get stuck into.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • Bests horses have yet to run but Malt Teaser has been backed into 7/2,got the value there at least

    John Butler has a few runners tomorrow at Chelmsford but his 0/16 last 14 days,best leave that for now.In the 8.45 Rebecca Menzies has a multiple course winner in Celtic Artisan,Oisin Murphy takes the ride,his 3-6 wins for trainer has been on this one,8/1 with Bet365

    gearoid180468 05/10/17 7:38 PM Reply


  • Apologies the 8/1 was with BV,now 6/1,Bet365 now 7/1
    Should Fois Grais turn up again tomorrow he is down to a grade he can win at,Chris Dwyer struggling a bit for winners but might be worth an interest at 9/1 Bet365

    gearoid180468 05/10/17 9:11 PM Reply


  • An update on the Best runners
    Malt Tease ran well for a while,and then didn’t run so well,was well backed so better was probably expected,one to watch next time.
    Luxford drifted out to 25/1 at stages before settling at 16/1,a nice winner
    Banta Bay ran poorly

    So a return of 14 points
    Mullionheir won a few weeks back at 20/1 bringing the profit on this micro to +34
    Chelmsford is the one track that i seem to do well at,maybe i should just stick to that for my own bets.I will keep a track of these for the winter period,as much for my own records
    So moving onto tomorrow with +14

    gearoid180468 05/10/17 9:50 PM Reply


    • Geariod, What is the MICRO? If you don’t mind me asking.

      Mike

      mickeydee 05/10/17 11:39 PM Reply


      • Not too complex Mike,All John Bests handicaps at Chelmsford,have to check wolverhampton later to see how he does there

        gearoid180468 06/10/17 7:20 AM Reply


        • Thanks Gearoid will look out for them.

          Mike

          mickeydee 06/10/17 8:55 AM Reply


        • Yep well done Gerry, top stuff… simple is ‘Best’ sometimes.. blimey, i’ll get my coat 🙂
          I will pull together some winter AW stats soon, quality over quantity… and his stats in C6 around there in particular are strong.

          Josh 06/10/17 10:14 AM Reply


    • Thanks Gearoid, Great result on Luxford- 32 bfsp.
      Linda

      Linda 06/10/17 8:42 AM Reply


  • Nobly Born Ascot Friday 15:10 1pt e/w (I would make sure you get 4 places if you can)-I do love to keep going back to Gosden/Dettori well which just keeps on giving. Looks like a good quality race with some of the better 3yr old handicappers this summer. I think it pays to concentrate on those who ran well in the 2 Newmarket races (13/7/17 and 29/7/17) which have thrown up multiple class 2 winners. Nobly Born was 4th in the 29/7/17 just behind the subsequent Steward’s Cup Consolation race winner. The 3rd has won a class 2 since and re-opposes here on 7lb worse terms. The 6th has won 2 on the trot in fairly easy fashion. He re-opposes the winner on 3lb better terms but that one is having his first run since the race. Frankie just on him for the first time this season (his last 2 jockeys haven’t been bad but this is a massive upgrade). They also apply the blinkers here. Jockey and trainer are 1/5,3p in Ascot handicaps. That probably should be enough to back him at a nice double figure price but on top of that he seems to fit all the trends. (ran 16-60 days ago-ideally 16-30, rated 97 or lower, weighing more than 8st6lbs, 9 or less career runs) Hoping for a big run.

    Not keen on the jumps cards but did have some loose change e/w on the ageless Scottish Glen in the 14:00 who has a 2/5, 4p record over course and distance and is 2/5,5p in class 3 flat handicaps worth £6k plus and appears to be drawn on the right side.

    Nick Mazur 05/10/17 10:11 PM Reply


    • Good night in South America with
      Argentina and Brazil both failing to win
      Laid Argentina at 2/7 so happy days

      the last round of games is really exciting with 7 teams still in with a shout of
      5 places.

      some broken hearts for sure
      Columbia go to Peru and the loser almost certain to go out
      Columbia were a minute away from the finals last night
      but two last minute Paraguyan goals puts them on the brink

      Paraguay must now have a great chance with their last game at home to Venezula
      while Chile go to Brazil and Argentina travel to Ecuador
      needing results.
      if other results go for them they could scrap through with a draw
      but they look must win game to me.
      Chile face a mountain travelling to Brazil and they could be in grave danger of missing out

      Argentina will be in the top 5 if they win in Ecuador as Peru and Columbia have to play each other
      but the pressure and the trip to altitude based Quito wont be easy
      what is in their favour though is the fact that Ecuador can not make the top 5
      whatever they do against the Argentinians.

      have a feeling last chance saloon for Messi and they may still pull it out of the bag.

      peter 06/10/17 8:42 AM Reply


      • As well as lay Brazil I also put up lay Uruguay yesterday and so a nice double. Northern Ireland conceded early and so the 1/4 lay on Germany did not have much chance. Onto Friday and I would lay Wales at odds on away to Georgia, with Gareth Bale absent. Georgia are not bad, they just struggle to put the ball in the net which costs them results. You can get even money Macedonia +3 away to Italy. The Italians dont normally wrack up big scores and so +3 may be enough?

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 06/10/17 9:50 AM Reply


        • Yep well done gents, good stuff. Didn’t have a penny on mind, footy betting/laying isn’t for me, but both your efforts deserved those results.

          Josh 06/10/17 9:52 AM Reply


        • Well played Martin Uruguay a good lay.
          You are very strong on the football bets
          and I like your thought process.

          Last Game Uruguay play Bolivia and
          they are 1/6 against a team with a terrible away record

          A point assures Uruguay a top 4 place so they may settle for a point and everyone
          is happy.
          Even if Uruguay lose they are unlikely to miss out but a draw at 7/1 in this game could be the value.
          as could laying the Uruguayans at 1/6
          The Bolivian side would be delighted with a point so if there isn’t an early goal
          it could see both sides strolling about without much intent
          so 0-0 could also be a fair punt.

          Argentina 1/2 going to high altitude Quito doesn’t strike me as value.
          and Ecuador at 79/10 with Marathon bet seems big

          Peru v Columbia is priced up correctly.

          Paraguay at 4/11 against Venezuela looks about the right price but couldn’t bet on a team who are so
          inconsistent and they know with a win they could make the finals
          against a team with nothing to lose they could freeze on the night
          if I was to play in this game certainly wouldn’t be taking 4/11 on a team like Paraguay

          Brazil v Chile is a fascinating match.
          Brazil are the best team and are at home so in theory should win easily
          but Chile have to get something out of this game or they will need Venezuela to do them a favour.

          the game could go either way as Chile will play it tight at the beginning but if they go a goal down early
          there is no way they can sit back so it could be 0-0 but it could also be 4 goals plus.

          Scotland going to Slovenia is also a match I like with Slovakia
          almost certain to beat Malta then Scotland will have to win in Slovenia
          a draw will see them lose out on goal difference.

          The Scots are playing well at the moment and with a draw/loss putting them out
          they will have to go for it so 19/10 with skybet could be fair enough
          Slovenia also have to go for a win so I am not expecting a 0-0
          Slovenia chance is slim they have to win against Scotland and hope
          that Slovakia who are a point ahead of them don’t beat Malta.

          If Slovakia win as they should they means they can only be denied 2nd place in the group if Scotland win
          but with only 18 point they are very likely to be the 9th best 2nd and miss out anyway.

          Northern Ireland, Wales and Republic of Ireland must be hoping that Scotland don’t win
          Ni will certainly make the playoffs if Scotland don’t win
          but the Wales group along with the Belgium one could see the worst 2nd

          PETER 06/10/17 11:39 AM Reply


          • I think that the principles of laying are the same in Internationals as they are re the Premier League in that the bookies go very short on the big boys regardless. I think your thinking is sound re the South American qualifiers. The thing with England’s group is the lack of goals in matches. If you went under 2.5 in matches excepting Malta you would be laughing. Harry Kane seems the difference between the teams now in England’s group. Northern Ireland should be OK for the play offs but Scotland will have to ‘nick’ a 1-0 win I think. What can Wales do without Bale? Long live Hal Robson Kanu!

            martin colwell 06/10/17 1:07 PM Reply


            • Martin
              Scottish 2nd division
              2012/13 180 games 81 home 40 draws 59 away
              2013/14 180 games 80 home 40 draws 59 away
              2014/15 180 games 79 home 38 draws 63 away
              2015/16 180 games 86 home 39 draws 55 away
              2016/17 180 games 69 home 46 draws 65 away
              2017/18 40 games 18 home 7 draws 15 away
              total 940 games 413 home 210draws 317 away
              Home 43.93% draws 22.34% aways 33.73%

              What is noticeable about these stats is the low percentage of draws
              and slightly lower average of home wins
              because the attendances at these matches are so low away teams are not intimidated by big crowds
              and home advantage seems a lot less than the bigger leagues
              as most punters play home wins or draws this division looks one that bucks the trends
              33.72% away wins over 940 games represent an average of 2/1 on the away win
              so just backing the way team or laying the draw in every match could be a sound tactic.

              Will do more research on leagues with very small crowds to see if the home advantage
              is less as the size of the crowd decreases

              peter 06/10/17 3:26 PM Reply


    • You’re getting good at this haha. Well done, a fun 10 mins there… now for disaster in the 3.20! Super job. Never in doubt. What were they doing leaving Frankie alone, a master of pace. Easy sometimes.

      Josh 06/10/17 3:19 PM Reply


      • He makes it so easy particularly on the top straight tracks like Newmarket, Newbury and Ascot. The last 4 of theirs I have backed (Nobly Born, Juliet Capulet, Nathra and The Mums (was double figures) have come 1211.

        Nick Mazur 06/10/17 3:34 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick, won quite cosily with the blinkers on.

      Tom 06/10/17 3:32 PM Reply


    • thanks for the write up Nick had a couple of quid ew.

      martin whittle 06/10/17 5:56 PM Reply


  • Be fascinating to see any Draw Bias / Actual Going at Ascot today, because as I indicated in e-mail this morning, a big Handicap Race tomorrow 3.35 and a lot can be gleaned from today.

    Early analysis leaves me with one drawn low (Johnny Barnes) one in the middle (Mitchum Swagger) and one middle to high (Mjjack) but a few drawn very high could be of significant interest if that is the place to be, as often is later in season on rain/dew softened Going.

    If it were not for a 2 year lay off would be very keen on Speculative Bid but he is trained by a magician who is nearly as old as Merlin, so you never know. Won’t make final call until morning though I don’t think.

    Ian SP2A 06/10/17 1:09 PM Reply


    • “memo to self” must sometimes have the courage of your convictions, having put both Shady McCoy and Nobly Born up as placepot suggestions today in the e-mail and still not really much clearer about the draw as they seem to be going all over the track! Still; there is always Hexham later!

      Ian SP2A 06/10/17 3:22 PM Reply


      • I am sure Josh will lend you his Opus Dei whip if you feel the need Ian. You did say how much of a fan you were of the Gosden/Dettori runners last week as well. I have Mijack down as a horse which ran well from a seemingly bad draw so may very well start there.

        Nick Mazur 06/10/17 3:36 PM Reply


        • LOL – have just mailed out Elite for tomorrow and Mjjack does figure, just a nagging wonder if he is a horse who has the balls to win though, although he has been beaten by some classy progressive types.

          Yes WELL DONE Gosden/Dettori combo! nice one great work!

          I threw away my Opus Dei whip when Ruth Kelly gave up politics and I watched the Da Vinci code. May be Josh could lend me his!!!! Haha

          Ian SP2A 06/10/17 4:07 PM Reply


          • Only got one sadly, I it gets enough regular use up here, along with the ‘leg clamp’!!

            Josh 06/10/17 4:32 PM Reply


  • The 2.10 at Fontwell is the sort of race that interests me.
    Starting with a blank canvas over a new discipline is always the time to watch over hurdles and fences

    4 year old hurdlers can be good bad and indifferent at the flights
    if you watch the race you can often spot what I call natural jumpers
    and win lose or draw they will likely do well in future races before the better horses come out

    I would be obliged to any one who watches the race to give me their views
    Thanks
    Pete

    peter 06/10/17 2:03 PM Reply


  • Golf Brendan Steele
    In 11 of his last 13 rounds at Silverado,Steele has shot scores under par.
    He’s 42 under in that stretch,
    what ever happens over the next 3 days those stats are outstanding,
    and at the start of play he was 33/1

    colin leafe 06/10/17 2:32 PM Reply


    • He’s going great guns guns Colin…fingers crossed….

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 06/10/17 5:00 PM Reply


  • Great call Nick
    Doug

    dougandnicky 06/10/17 3:18 PM Reply


  • Frankie is ripping it up today. Gosden not bad either. How he is doing these days, picking and choosing his rides, on a profit or loss basis? I guess still losing but what about big meetings and Saturdays?

    martin colwell 06/10/17 4:05 PM Reply


    • The way Frankie has rebuilt and atoned for an error of judgement is a lesson to anyone in and out of sports. OK he had a base to work from and wonderful patrons like JG who in my humble opinion is the greatest living Trainer and a humble nd decent man. I just hope that Graham Gibbons, a very talented jockey but a guy who has always seemed on the edge will be able to find a similar path back after his ban announced in the past 24 hours.

      I suspect that the length of that ban though is more to do with the attempted concealment as with the original transgression.

      Ian SP2A 06/10/17 4:10 PM Reply


    • They are profitable backing blind on the flat but much better in the 3/1-12/1 range so if you avoid the short shit and the longshots its probably the way to go.

      Nick Mazur 06/10/17 4:26 PM Reply


      • I thought I put 5 on your Johnny G winner earlier Nick… appears I also put £7.50 on at BFSP 11.4.. (rounded the bank down I think, don’t like loose £2.50s haha).. any weekend excess is now paid for, cheers! I’ll have a pint or 5 on you later 🙂

        Josh 06/10/17 4:30 PM Reply


        • Always glad to oblige. This run is bound to end sooner or later so maybe I am leaving the country at the right time!

          Nick Mazur 06/10/17 5:01 PM Reply


  • Got that Hexham race completely wrong = sorry!

    May be a bit heavier than anticipated but no excuse!

    Seems Gary Priestley is having a great day, 3 winners out of 3 including the 12/1 at Hexham.

    Great spotter of dark horses!

    Ian@SP2A 06/10/17 5:35 PM Reply


    • i do all of Gary’s for fun stakes £1ew ,3 winners today 12-1,12-1,13-2 , had a 10p ew lucky 15 got £119-40 going on Pearl Spectre in the 7-15 chelmsford so it’s squeaky bum time 🙂 £3k if it comes in

      martin whittle 06/10/17 5:49 PM Reply


  • Fingers toes and eyes crossed for you there….Good Luck!

    Ian@SP2A 06/10/17 5:56 PM Reply


  • looked to have a chance but finished 4th, still cant complain £173.66 for £3 🙂

    martin whittle 06/10/17 7:39 PM Reply


  • Gary is a great tipster but following long term you won’t have any betting accounts left as he always posts around 5pm and the prices get smashed in by the next day

    christopher jones 06/10/17 7:47 PM Reply


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