Free Daily Post: 04/10/17 (complete)

TIPS.. none. Quite a moderate card at Bangor in truth, no ‘standard/non novice’ 3m+ handicap chases to attack

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any)

3.50 Bang- Cuirassier Dempire

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.45 Bang – Sage Monkey (hits both Lee angles)

4.55 Bang – Mr Bachster (as above)

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

2.35 Naas- Hawaam (20/1<)

2.20 Notts – Alba Del Sole (any odds)

4.30 Notts – Mooltazem (any odds)

 

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Nothing else today,

GL with any bets,

Josh

 

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  • GOLF BETS Safeway Open
    Brendan Steele 1 point ew 1/5 7 33/1 CO 1/4 5 28/1 LA 888 Betstars Unibet
    Mentioned a couple of weeks ago this is Brendan’s time of year,put him up last year at 50/1 when he won and with Coral paying down to 7 places he should go close again.
    Kevin Na 1 point ew 1/5 7 28/1 CO, 1/4 5 28/1 LA BF 365 10bet
    For me this is one of the only courses that suits Kevin and the bookmakers are giving little away.

    Recap Alfred Dunhill
    Branden Grace 1 point ew 1/4 6 25/1 BW Sporting Bet
    Thorbjorn Olesen 1 point ew 1/4 6 33/1 BW Sporting Bet Unibet 888

    colin leafe 03/10/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • Safeway Open.
    Some interesting stats for the above.
    The renamed Safeway Open – previously the Fry’s.com.
    All winners have been at 50/1 or less across the past 6/7 renewals. Bae 125/1.
    This tournament in recent times has promoted maiden Tour winners – Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; Grillo became yet another in 2015 at Silverado at 50/1 and last year’s victor Brandon Steele although he did win one 4 years previously.

    Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 7 seasons – naturally this includes the ‘Fall Series’ from 2010-2013 – 6 of those 7 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Only Bae won with a triple digit.
    Only 1 1st round leader has won in the last 6 years.
    A lot of winners have come from down the pack from 37th in round 1, and 28th in round 2 even round 3 6th place has won so not clear cut and very open.
    Conclude
    Pick up to 50/1
    Top 90 in World Rankings
    Look for someone who hasn’t had a Tour win or just 1 in previous years.

    I leave Colin to do the TIPS.

    Hope this gives you some help.

    Mike

    mickeydee 03/10/17 9:11 PM Reply


    • Great write up and research on the PGA Tour Mike.

      Really tough week this week in Scotland. Colin’s picks look solid although they are both former winners only 1 player (Harrington) has won the event twice in its history. Big fan of Tommy Fleetwood who has a great record at this event and should go well if he can recapture his early season form.

      Cheers

      Ben

      921389 04/10/17 10:19 AM Reply


      • Ben, Tommy Fleetwood wife as just had a baby interesting to see how he copes,Dufner, Donald and Willett have not done so well after the birth of their first child,o the joy of kids!!! would not be without my son.
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 04/10/17 11:16 AM Reply


  • One from my NH tracker, potential improver, 3M chase, 3.50 BOD, Kilronan Castle, 14/1. Also a 33/1 shot that is sliding down the weights and may be suited by ground conditions, 4.00 Not, Lord Franklin.

    martin colwell 03/10/17 10:23 PM Reply


    • Yes i think Lord F is a very interesting runner today too

      jamesm 04/10/17 1:22 PM Reply


  • I like two runners today at Bangor for the in-form Sophie Leech stable with Paddy Brennan booked to ride both. Firstly in the 15:15 Saxo Jack looks a solid e/w bet. The favorite is clearly the best horse in the race however he has yet to win in 6 attempts from breaks of more than 30 days and needs to be taken on at such short odds considering he hasn’t raced for 5 months. Our is a solid yardstick with the form of his last couple of races working out well. There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of depth in the race so he looks fairly nailed on for a place ere (cue a 4th) and might snatch a win if the favorite doesn’t quite perform. Moving on to the 15:50 I want to take a chance on Anteros. Whilst he is 9 he is fairly unexposed over fences (only 5 runs) and tackles his preferred 3M over the bigger obstacles for the first time. He won a listed hurdle at Cheltenham off 125 and he races off 112 here so looks well treated. More importantly the cheekpieces which made a big difference last year return here. A number of these will need the run or are making their chasing debuts so I am hoping Paddy can take advantage here.

    I would have also put up up Derintoher Yank in the 16:20 however whilst he looked a massive price last night at 20/1 there probably isn’t much value left in his price unless you wanted to add him into a multiple.

    Moving to the flat I want to have a small bet on Bahama Moon in the 17:05 at Nottingham (Sky paying 5 places). Ran a solid race behind Ice Age 3 starts ago and has ran ok since. There appears to be a draw bias at the track towards high drawn horses which run prominently so it should suit his front running style. I thought it was interesting that Evans’ main jockey John Egan takes the ride for the first time (his only ride for the trainer today as far as I can see) so I am hoping they are expecting a big run.

    Nick Mazur 04/10/17 10:12 AM Reply


    • Nick, re Bahamian Dollar, are you expecting it to go off and hang on, at least for a place? Unsure as to whether you back each way or not? It is hard today and agree with minimal stakes approach. When I was working on today’s fields last night I saw that Derintoher Yank was being put up in a few places and so that may have brought the money for it? I can see Saxo Jack at least placing against the FAV.

      martin colwell 04/10/17 11:06 AM Reply


      • Yeah that’s what I am hoping for yeah Martin. Guess we shall see. End of season on the flat is a slight lottery and the favourite looked very short yesterday.

        Nick Mazur 04/10/17 12:37 PM Reply


        • Dollar just missed out on a place if you backed it with Sky but I guess I cannot complain given everything else ran well.

          Nick Mazur 04/10/17 5:16 PM Reply


    • Nick – if my memory is correct , I looked into Brennan a while ago and he was poor on novices and his hurdles were poor over 5/1. Could just be feeble memory recollection on my part though, Sophie Leech does seem to be in some sort of form though.

      Chris Albin 04/10/17 11:51 AM Reply


      • In fairness I didn’t look at these last night but he is 11/35, 17p +37 in novice handicap chases in 2017 so maybe you were looking at the non-handicap ones. For novice hurdle non-handicaps in 2017 he is 6/16, 9p when his horse finished in the top 3 LTO. They don’t look too bad to me 😉

        Nick Mazur 04/10/17 12:44 PM Reply


        • Probably my weary brain then! Not near a pc today

          Chris Albin 04/10/17 3:32 PM Reply


  • The plunge on Derintoher Yank is a bit of a mystery despite it being a tip.

    It was pretty steady at 12-14/1 and the price has suddenly gone. There is a non runner in the race but not a particularly favoured on and I’m not aware of it being a “touted horse”.

    To be honest I personally don’t look at any other Tipsters Tips before picking (nor do any other SP2A Tipsters) as I feel it inhibits the thought process and can lead you down blind alleys; and I very much like to be in “my own zone”.

    I can only think it is local money with the record of the Trainer at the track and the performance of the horse last Autumn really does bode well for today too. Hopefully it is the precursor to a win and it is possible that it is merely a market adjustment to what was exceptional value at anything over 12/1.

    Ian SP2A 04/10/17 10:37 AM Reply


    • I think its been steadily dropping all of yesterday. I put it up to half a dozen friends on face book just before 7PM (I don’t do write ups for them) last night and by that point the 20/1 was mostly gone.

      Nick Mazur 04/10/17 10:51 AM Reply


      • Lets all hope its a winner then especially your mates on at 20/1 Good Luck!

        Ian SP2A 04/10/17 10:55 AM Reply


        • Think you gents can get a wallop! for that one. Never in any doubt.. easy lead as expected… job done. Superb ride, slowed, kicked, plenty in tank.

          Josh 04/10/17 4:28 PM Reply


          • I just feel bad I didn’t mention it here last night. If you have no issues happy to post tips up whether I find the time to do writes up or not (will put them up when I back them and than 30-40% of the time will do write ups later). I generally haven’t unless I had the time/energy to the write ups since I know the ethos here is to explain your reasoning.

            Nick Mazur 04/10/17 4:35 PM Reply


            • I think you have earned the right to just post horses Nick, and add comments when you can! 🙂

              Josh 04/10/17 4:37 PM Reply


            • Nice 20/1 for your mates Nick – well done, a nice 12/1 for SP2A this morning, hope most got that price. I agree a lovely ride and text book as visualised in terms of the running style.

              Now lets try and find another one (or two) like that tomorrow when some pretty decent NH Racing including Warwick where we found a nice one at the opening meeting of the season.

              Ian@SP2A 04/10/17 4:43 PM Reply


              • Nice to get off to a good start – thanks Ian!

                I only managed to get 10/1, though that was at closer to 9am.

                Is it common for the tips to arrive before 8am? I might need to set my alarm clock a little earlier!

                Neil 04/10/17 4:47 PM Reply


                • Neil;

                  I try to get them out between 8 to 8.30am – would be sooner if I did not write so much but I think the logic and a bit of banter is a bit of a USP and my members seem to appreciate it and hopefully you guys will do as I see the tip alone as just part of the offering and it’s all about taking money off the Bookies.

                  I have to say that 50% of our tips actually go off at about the advised price, and certainly hold up for a few hours; and about 20% of the time they go up in price believe it or not. I think from memory Whinging Willie was advised at and went off at 14/1 as an example. The biggest bane is a glut of non runners affecting prices.

                  I’m an early riser, around 5.30am and that’s a bit of a discipline I stick to 6 days a week, have a lie in on a Sunday til 6.30am but as they say !the early bird catches the worm! I have tried the night before but I always like to have the best possible angle on the going so the first 10 mins every morning is checking weather in past 12 and next 8-10 hours at every track.

                  So, I don’t think you’ll suffer much if you stick to picking tips up around 9am and no need to get up any earlier imho!

                  Good Luck

                  Ian@SP2A 04/10/17 5:33 PM Reply


              • Thanks Ian and thanks to you also as I was on twice given I treat each tipster in the portfolio separately.

                Nick Mazur 04/10/17 4:49 PM Reply


                • Nick
                  Great stuff.

                  I think it is a good point to make about more than one tipster picking the same horse. I can’t speak for others but we have a golden rule not to look at anyone else until after we have done the tip. I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer but I personally like to “get in the zone” and to focus on my own logic and have found if you have too much information it can cloud a decision too much. So a nice glow if they win and only me/us (SP2A) to blame if they lose.

                  I really struggled for a few weeks as an example when Racing Post went Beta with visualising the Cards. Fortunately one of my SP2A members sent me a link to the RP Breeding online site which still uses the old format RaceCards. That allows me to profile the 4-5 races to attack using what I am used to and then the racecards on Beta can be used to check the form etc.

                  It’s all about “habit” with me as an older type (late 50’s) and therefore my logic is that if 2-3 completely different tipsters pick the same horse – especially if they are tipsters you trust, then may be right to have more confidence in the horse. Of course trust can only be earned.

                  I’ve tried other online Cards and providers and some are brilliant but I just keep going back to what works for me.

                  Ian@SP2A 04/10/17 5:41 PM Reply


                  • I think whatever works for you is the right way of doing it. I generally head straight into the cards when I get home from work which seems to work for me particularly as I am less of a morning person and don’t really have enough time to give the cards justice first thing. Personally like Josh I’ve used a combination of HRB/GGG which seems to work well for me. This will be the 3rd jumps season I am serious about with both set of tools and I’d like to think its coming along. I generally pick what I like independently of whether it is tipped up by someone else in the portfolio and I would probably need to feel more strongly about something if it has already been tipped for me to also tip it.

                    Nick Mazur 04/10/17 8:55 PM Reply


  • Derintoher Yank is on a simple trainer track system i have but ive not backed as when he has 2 in the race with my angles he is – 20lsp pts 4/26 gd place stats mind 46% +17pt BF so the 20s ew looks fair. GL those on. Hoping to see a good place price his runner in the 315 Innercastle lad which is on the same system and will have a small w/p as sire stats are poor but the trainer system is solid.

    james bull 04/10/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • I went off Derintogher Yank when the price went! However I did get Jonagold at 7/1 last night and so not too bad a day. Onto this evening. I like the Stoute Maiden in the 6.40 KP, Procedure. On at 9/1 this morning. I know they are not races to bet on and so treat with caution. I like Brilliant Vanguard in the 7.40 KP but the race looks competitive. Finally I like Intimidator in the last the 9.10 and am on at 11/1. Again an open race but I think it is in there with a chance and so the price looked value.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 04/10/17 5:34 PM Reply


  • I’ve had a quiet word from a usually very good source that Silver Swift in the 6.10 is a bit more forward that most balding newcomers and a yard that usually gives them plenty of time and not one to follow fto – had a small dabble at 7/1 e/w

    Ian@SP2A 04/10/17 5:45 PM Reply


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