Members Daily Post: 03/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Ayr

2.55- Something Brewing (micro class) H3 I3  8/1  UP 

3.25 –

New Youmzain (3yo+) ES  9/2 UP 7/1 

La Bacouetteuse (micro class)  I1  11/2 UP

Elite Icon (micro class) H3

4.30 – Royal Regent (3yo+) ES H1  10/3 UP 5/2 

5.05 – Granite City Doc (3yo+) ES  14/1 UP 16/1 

 

JUMPS

(from new report/not yet published) 

Sedgefield

2.00- 

On Alberts Head (all hncps) H3 I3  5/1 UP

Mathayus (micro class)  ES H3 G3 9/2  WON 9/2>11/4 

Fit For Fifty (micro going+age+runs+90 day) ES G1  13/2 UP

2.30 – Heaven Scent (micro going) ES  14/1 UP

4.10 –

Ink Master (micro going) I1 14/1  3rd 28/1 

Our Kylie (micro age) H1 I3 G1 5/2 WON 5/2> 7/2 

 

Southwell

3.15 – 

Deadly Move (all hncps) H1 I3 5/2 UP

Gold Ignot (micro class) ES H3 G1 7/1 UP

3.45 – 

Alf  N Dor (all hncps) I3 9/2 UP

Serpico (all hncps + micro class)  9/2 UP

5.25 – Reckless Behaviour (hncp hurdle + micro class) ES  H1   6/1 2nd 9/2  

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/73,27p, -4.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/137, +19.6)

2.55 Ayr – Something Brewing – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP*

*hmm, not much to say on that front, should have picked out the Sue Smith horse! 🙂 I think I miss-spoke when I said ‘he clearly has ability’ – as none showed on the level as yet for Jardine. This run was awful. He travelled into the straight well enough but just nothing there when asked. He was beat long before conditions could have been an excuse – and they should have been ideal. Moving on. Most horses I back run like that, bit a decent priced winner or two for the flat ‘est tips’ would be welcome. A ‘nothing’ summer so far. 

Let’s have a go on this one as a few things caught the eye. No doubt the market may guide. But he arrives here in form having won LTO over hurdles, which is a positive at least. This is the 6th start for the trainer having first appeared in June, after a long enough break. Sent off 18/1 I think that may have been an introduction to the UK. This horse won in soft as a 2Y) over 8f- that would suggest he has plenty of stamina. He started off with Jardine on OR 84 on the flat. 4 flat runs later he finds himself on 67. He is going to plunder a flat prize at some point as he clearly has ability. He drops into a C5, having run in C3s on the flat. He moves up to 9f and gets soft ground. Those three things all caught the eye and given his profile I thought 8s was interesting enough. In theory these conditions should see him in better light. I’ll roll the dice.

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I think you can make positive cases for plenty today- or in any case, esp with certain strategies, can’t find enough negatives to be put off from prices.

VIDEO… 

I have run through every runner above pretty much, analysing them as I do, with my own subjective approach. I touch on those I am positive on (list below vid), those I may not be (mainly linked to price) and various other bits and pieces. With any luck you find it of some use, whether watching pre or post race. 

AYR: 0-18 mins

SEDGE: 18-32

SOUTH: 32-

 

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NOTES: I will just mention horses I was quite positive on in the Vid, all in context of price, my subjective approach: Something brewing UP / New Youmzain UP/Royal Regent UP (why they race him so far back  in small fields- no idea)/Granite City Doc UP (not to go mad, esp if unbacked…Normile yet to have a flat capper win 14/1+ SP ever! 0/83,9p..a ‘just in case’ stake for me at moment) Mathayus WON 9/2>11/4   /Fit For Fifty UP / Heaven Scent UP (well- no reason not to have a dart given ES/strat 2- prob sulk/tail off- IF on a going day..well..who knows) / Reckless Behaviour 2nd 

I also mentioned Ever So Much 3rd 33/1  in 2.00 Sedge at a price, jumped out at you in geegeez instant expert and may be worth some shrapnel at a price.. was 17.5 BF.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

4.50 South- Arthurs Gift (m1 22/1<)

 

Irish Angles

3.50 Tip – Baily Fox (12/1< best, 1x 66/1 winner) UP 100/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update (advised strategies) LINKS IN KEY HAVE BEEN UPDATED

I will update the links in Key asap… but a summary..

Flat

Strat #1: 1/3,2p, +7

#2: 0/4,1p, -4

#3 (ES): 1/5,3p, +3.5

#4: 0/1,0p, -1

#5: 0/2,2p, -2

#6: 2/9,4p, +12

Total: (if backing all,inc multiple strat quals) : 4/24,10p, +15.5 points

Jumps

#1 : none

#2: 1/3,1p, +18

#3 (ES): 2/5,3p, +19.5

#4 (treble rated, monitoring…): 3/4,3p, +6.25

Total- all- : 6/12,7p, +43.75

Total 123: 3/8,4p, +37.5

(inc strongly suggested at 20/1, x2)

If backing everything just once when a strategy qualifier, regardless of how many they hit, I think that is approx +30 points or so, maybe a bit more.

Results to early/BOG prices.. BFSP will be updated for all when I get round to the detailed results updates on spreadsheets etc which has taken a back seat while I try and get on top of the day to day to-do list. Always a busy time of year.

I would always recommend keeping your own results, esp if using BFSP/exchange/taking a price etc. No need to be detailed but keeping on top of your own P/L is always useful.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • The 3.35 is a novice chase Josh

    gearoid180468 02/10/17 6:07 PM Reply


    • Hmm… Geegeez Gold hasn’t done that a while- I get occasional issue- looks like i haven’t refreshed the page properly – the 3.35 was definitely down as a handicap hurdle! (with GG) Now a novice chase. ! Cheers.
      Had better run through the rest again quick… cheers.

      Josh 02/10/17 6:16 PM Reply


      • I’m sort of glad given I don’t have to spend ten minutes contemplating on whether to break my rules and put on less than a full stake on Gigolo LOL

        Nick Mazur 02/10/17 6:53 PM Reply


        • I did wonder when flicking through why he was 200/1, given a handicap hurdle! All makes sense now.

          Josh 02/10/17 7:30 PM Reply


  • Tizzard had two winners on Monday and so we can assume his horses are fit enough to be competitive.

    martin colwell 02/10/17 6:44 PM Reply


  • Hi josh, following on from my email earlier today, I firstly want to say how much I enjoy the blog & all the members contributions, I have followed from afar before becoming a member and getting involved. I wonder if any members could help me out, I was 50 on Saturday and my partner has paid for us to go to Prague taking in the velka pardubicka while we are there, i would really appreciate any information regarding betting, number of races, trends for the big race and anything else in general really
    Thanks in advance

    Harry sandells 02/10/17 8:32 PM Reply


    • Hi Harry,
      I have had a word with a good racing pal of mine, and am going to pay him to write a horse by horse preview, plus loads of other info about the track, on course betting etc. For a free post. So, that should be fun. Great idea! (so cheers) I would have clocked that race was on probably the day after it was run. Have watched it a couple of times, decent spectacle.
      In the meantime he said he has a friend- ex pat who lives out there- who runs the website below on Czech racing, may be worth a flick through…

      http://www.dostihovy-svet.cz/en

      (some decent stuff on that site,inc about the big race now decs are out and other pieces)

      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 03/10/17 7:55 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, what can I say, really appreciate it, just had a look at the decs on the website for the big race, might be worth having a little bet on Sixtyseven at first glance, having just turned fifty and that was the year I was born!! Bit basic but you never know!!
        Look forward to writ up, thanks again
        Quick well done also to SP2A, had a very good start, good priced winners and even the losers are putting up a good show as with Keenes Point yesterday, although I managed to get a return with Sky for 4th
        Thanks again

        Harry Sandells 03/10/17 8:19 AM Reply


        • All part of the ‘service’ Harry, no problem.

          Well, I think you have to have something on that one now!

          Josh

          Josh 03/10/17 2:24 PM Reply


  • hi Josh, sorry to be a pain but is there any chance of a breakdown of if you followed Inform ratings compared to Horseracebase? or is it already available somewhere and i’m just to lazy to search for it 🙂

    martin whittle 03/10/17 8:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin, that isn’t being a pain.. at this moment in time that info does not exist in an easy format to pull out- I will be spending some quality time in coming days, this week and next, updating all the spreadsheets, ratings pointers etc so that I can interrogate and see if anything we have missed- on the strategy front.
      It was clear over jumps Jan-April – that HRB is inferior to speed- their approach seems to be more built into odds/not much of a edge at all. They have done better on the flat.
      I do want to look at Inform Top/Top 3, with same approach as Geegeez Strat 1 – that 10/1+ approach- as there will be enough data from jumps now to see if that is worth keeping an eye on-

      The results wrap up post from Jan-April over jumps may be worth a read through if you wish… plenty there to refresh the memory, esp odds.. and noting how poorly shorter prices generally do (<6/1)- always a good reminder... https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/05/07/members-club-results-end-april-2017-upd1/

      I have some work to do on Inform, which will be done 🙂 Do need to get the main guide finished first!

      Josh

      Josh 03/10/17 8:18 AM Reply


  • Josh, I understand that at Ayr they are racing on the NH course today. Do you think that this will suit your selection? Do you think that this course change will impact the other races in any way?

    martin colwell 03/10/17 9:17 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin… that isn’t something I have thought about in much depth, and isn’t something I would let me influence any strategy qualifiers- the distance is the distance, the going seems to be soft… it is a question for them all- and well, at the odds etc, it wasn’t something I have got too hung up on really.

      The trip and the going, class drop, lightly raced for yard, in form.. are the positives- and I don’t see why running on the hurdles track would make any difference to his chances. That isn’t an excuse whatsoever.

      One of those rarities where if you like the price I wouldn’t put any further thought into it. It should still take some getting today and is still a long enough run in.. well the same really isn’t it, as they sweep around the bend. Fairly long home straight.

      Josh

      Josh 03/10/17 10:01 AM Reply


      • Ok thanks Josh. A difference it may make is length of grass?

        martin colwell 03/10/17 10:21 AM Reply


        • It is a difference/unknown.. and I can see if you were tipping/attacking races cold/using form… (and ie looking at Ayr specialists) why you would maybe leave the card alone..
          but that isn’t the approach here.. and I am not fretting over length of grass! I have no idea how I apply that to analysis of a horses’ chance? – other than face it is a ‘difference’/unknown… trying to second guess a course on the official going is hard enough/impossible, without worrying about grass length! I don’t know how I am meant to build that into analysis of those horses above??
          Josh

          Josh 03/10/17 10:34 AM Reply


          • have to admit that made me chuckle…

            warren bottomley 03/10/17 10:50 AM Reply


            • It is a valid question.. they are racing on a track which hasn’t been touched by horses in months.. so surface will be different from existing race track- and therefore simply an unknown when looking at ‘form’ – esp horses who may be ayr specialists… so can see why some may leave the card… but I have no idea what I am meant to do with such info when looking at the runners above! The distance is the distance, it is soft, class is the class, horse profile etc – I can’t be worrying about that! It is like getting yourself in knots about how ‘soft’ at one track compares with ‘soft’ somewhere else- you can make the game too complicated – and I think our ‘stats/ratings/horse only’ approach is as much as we need 🙂

              Josh 03/10/17 10:53 AM Reply


  • Gold Ingot…something tells me he needs a smaller field and even a shorter trip to dominate the field. He has won once over 2m7 1/2 at Newcastle with 4 runners, but before then they’ve been shorter trips…i like the second Bailey selection

    Jack Houston 03/10/17 10:55 AM Reply


    • Hi Jack.. I was rather negative on him in the video! I haven’t backed him… he is in potential clanger territory but I can live with that- I don’t think he stays this trip in a proper run race, I don’t think he will get an easy lead, and he doesn’t arrive here in great form. He is 10. I can live with him unbacked at 7/1, as confident over time I would avoid enough losers with similar profile to more than make up for it. We shall see. But I struggled to find many positives! We know how this goes… 🙂
      Yep, her second one.. well, that kind of profile over sticks, 6/1+, has and will find us many more winners moving forwards. Had to be backed at that price I think. GL

      Josh 03/10/17 11:03 AM Reply


  • looking at jay kay 4:30 ayr
    I think we’ve been here before with him.
    but if they let him go they might struggle to pin him back today.

    warren bottomley 03/10/17 11:07 AM Reply


    • Yea maybe… i thought at 9/2 I can let him win.. he is up 2 classes here and hasn’t been winning.. but low weight and if they let the handbrake off he could make all- I can see that. That class question, in context of price, niggled at me. Wouldn’t fall off my seat if he made all though, but I will stick with RR – who should relish conditions and I thought 7/2 was ‘just’ ok, given the positives/oppo.

      Josh 03/10/17 11:10 AM Reply


      • I have my money on royal regent he is a ES horse. they do keep trying with him and sods law may come into effect the minute you overlook him lol.

        warren botomley 03/10/17 11:26 AM Reply


        • Gets his preferred soft going, he just plods on- which when testing is usually enough at Ayr for him! Fingers crossed he makes it a perfect 4/4 on soft. Josh

          Josh 03/10/17 11:27 AM Reply


          • Royal Regent is the one i am currently looking at myself now…couple of unexposed types in there, however, they have question marks over them compared to the solid + dependable RR

            Jack Houston 03/10/17 11:54 AM Reply


      • Well done Warren, that wasn’t in too much doubt when Jay Kay got easy lead.. hope you may have had saver on.. can’t say I did!! RR- why they had him so far back in a small field- never helping themselves really when obvious won’t be a pace collapse.. any pre race analysis would indicate Jay Kay could get easy lead- surely then you think about running him closer to the pace and asking him to wind up earlier. Probably didn’t make a difference but doing that hasn’t given the horse a chance in that ground/slow run race.

        Josh 03/10/17 4:42 PM Reply


        • Just enough to cover the rrt bet just had a gut feeling. Backed Jay kay a few times thinking this is the day and he hasn’t done the business. I just knew the one race I didn’t he would win. Sods law lol.

          warren bottonmley 03/10/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • Nothing I really like today but have had £5 ew on Captain Mowbray in the 16:40 at Sedgefield purely on the fact that Sky were paying 4 places and the form of his 3rd has been well franked with the winner following up and being 10lbs worse off with the horse yet half the price (Dica) and the 2nd won 3 times since. Has also gone well after a break and ran fine at the track.

    Nick Mazur 03/10/17 1:57 PM Reply


    • I think I deserved better there 🙁

      Nick Mazur 03/10/17 4:47 PM Reply


  • First race and a nice 6/1 winner to start the day of. Paddy even let me have a full £7.50 on despite my severely restricted account!

    Nick Mazur 03/10/17 2:12 PM Reply


    • Yep, easy sometimes.. ES, unexposed, second run in handicap, drop down 2f or so having just ran out of gas the last day, prominent racer, 6/1.. job done. That type of profile wins us plenty, and should keep doing so.. hopefully bailey’s in the last can add to it,similar type.

      Josh 03/10/17 2:15 PM Reply


  • 4.10 Sed, Ink Master backed ew last night at 12/1 finished 3rd 28/1, well that was a surprise. Had Our Kylie for a fiver at 0/30. wasn’t going to back it but being a Triple H1 I3 G1 I couldn’t leave it.

    Well done again Josh. Ink Master ran a good race for a 28/1 runner.

    Mike

    mickeydee 03/10/17 4:27 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, well done, some EW coinage rewarded! I didn’t touch him, and annoyingly only threw change on the nose on Ever So Much who placed in notes at 33/1! Yea Ink ran well- a bit keen, but showed more spark than last two runs- interesting what they do with him.. only 7th hurdle start so cant say for sure wont win a moderate hurdle from that mark- pushed the pace as well- may be dangerous if given an easy lead. Maybe Hobbs just sold him/got rid as that is nature of the yard- many a nice horse and maybe just not room, rather than a negative as to his ability. Did win 3 starts ago after all.

      I wasn’t keen on Our Kylie at 5/2, and have avoided a few losers today- I won’t say what I did when she drifted to 7/2 🙂

      Treble rated over sticks… well they are now 5/9,5p, +10.75. Interesting! Decent start and something to watch/track for sure. That info there to use as you please, as you have done!

      Josh

      Josh 03/10/17 4:31 PM Reply


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