Members Daily Post: 02/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Bath

3.40 – Pastfact (3yo+) ES  H3 I3 G1 7/2 WON 7/2>5/4 

4.40 – Nutini (3yo+) ES H3 G3 7/1  2nd 7/1> 5/2 

5.10 – Concur (all hncps) ES H3 I3 G3  11/2 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.20 – De Faoithesdream (micro dist) 8/1 UP

 

Stratford 

3.00 – Global Thrill (micro class) 12/1 WON 12/1 (25p R4)> 9/1> 8/1

3.30- Beau Du Brizais (all hncps) 30 ES I3  7/1 2nd 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>> (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/72,26p, -3.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/136, +20.6)

4.40 Bath- Nutini – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) 2nd 5/2, beat the market, ran to plan, no real excuse.. beaten by classier one/more in hand- who I think done it a bit snugly.. maybe Drowne could have held onto him for longer but I won’t be too harsh- that would be a minimum so can see why you would make plenty of use early, just bumped into one. I do like a ‘test tip’ placed effort! 

Without doubt this one looks the most interesting to my eye today from the list above and if I just had to back one horse it would be him. (the last time I made a similar statement, the horse fell out the back of the TV – he may still be running!)  He could well be moderate (looks likely) but he ticks those boxes… lightly raced, as yet have not seen the best of him on the track/more to come one day… that’s the foundation.. and then I am looking for some reasons why he should improve on recent form. Well…  they drop him down into a class 6 for the first time here and of more interest, they drop him down in distance by 2f+. Very interesting. It looks like Mr Saunders may be wanting to turn this one into a sprinter, and with any luck a Bath specialist. This is only the horses 4th start for the yard and I suspect they have got to know him by now. He runs as if he doesn’t stay 8/7f so this trip looks worth a crack. It is testing enough here today by the looks of it which will help. He does race prominently and the question is whether he will have the pace- have they managed to train that speed into him- if they have, he breaks, gets the lead (possible), then I suspect he will stay there all the way. It is only his 6th start in handicaps. This just feels like it will go one of two ways-  they are either getting desperate and trying anything they can think of- or this has been a bit of a plan, they know he will relish conditions, and he bolts up. 6/1, in a race of this nature, just allowed the play. Interesting that Drowne keeps the ride, having got to know the horse LTO – he may well have even suggested he tries this trip.

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My ‘test tipping’ clearly needs some work- my ability to home in on just one horse is proving challenging- albeit the place stats above do not include the wins, so 33 wins/places from 72 bets isn’t bad, most of those 6/1+.. just need a few of those placed horses to win, and at these odds it doesn’t take many winners to boost that bottom line. I’ll tot up the ‘notes’ horses from September, which may well be a better approach moving forward, in terms of my subjective analysis, but they creamed around +65 odd points I think. I will get the exact figures. But something to build on there. I won’t be doing that every month, but if I could add 10-20 points a month in section 2 to the bottom line, that would be handy. And I suppose this section is just about giving you more choice on how to attack the content. And with any luck something interesting to read on a daily basis. It is useful for my own punting I should add- section 2 is a reflection of what jumps out at me when I go through all qualifiers in section 1. I am much more disciplined than I used to be with nearly all of my bets coming from my own blog content- which is clearly how it should be! And of course dabbling on the odd horse mentioned in the comments by you shrewd readers.

As always, my aim is to focus on positives – horses I am particularly interested in. If I don’t mention a horse that is not necessarily a negative as to their chance, but those I have mentioned just looked more interesting. You can read into that what you will! But I don’t want these views to ever put you off backing a winner- which occasionally I have got very close to doing/may have done, and that is far from ideal.

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NOTES…

Pastfact… WON 7/2>5/4  – poor bugger, a 7/2 shot (i get nauseous with anything under 9/2, and could stop a train at that end of the market) that looks solid to my eyes… it is a small field race, and ‘hands and heels’ – so some danger there.. but he has a lot of pace to aim at, will appreciate the step back up in trip, is 3, drops back down in class and is running well. He is holding his form. It was soft enough when he won at Chepstow so should handle conditions, and he has a very good pilot on board. I would like to think he will run his race- a 7/2 shot in a fairly weak 6 runners race is a bit different to one with 12+ runners. That’s something i need to improve on. I wouldn’t touch that fav simply on the basis that Cox is 0/20,2p in the last 14 days- that makes 2/1 look plenty short enough and I will take him on.

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That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

1.50 NA – Ginge De Sophia (m1, 22/1<) 3rd 9/2

2.50 NA – The Hollow Ginge (m1, 22/1<) WON 6/1>5/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update (advised strategies)

I will update the links in Key from tomorrow’s post… but a summary..

Flat

Strat #1: 1/3,2p, +7

#2: 0/4,1p, -4

#3 (ES): 1/5,3p, +3.5

#4: 0/1,0p, -1

#5: 0/2,2p, -2

#6: 2/9,4p, +12

Total: (if backing all,inc multiple strat quals) : 4/24,10p, +15.5 points

Jumps

#1 : none

#2: 1/3,1p, +18

#3 (ES): 2/5,3p, +19.5

#4 (treble rated, monitoring…): 3/4,3p, +6.25

Total- all- : 6/12,7p, +43.75

Total 123: 3/8,4p, +37.5

(inc strongly suggested at 20/1, x2)

If backing everything just once when a strategy qualifier, regardless of how many they hit, I think that is approx +30 points or so, maybe a bit more.

Results to early/BOG prices.. BFSP will be updated for all when I get round to the detailed results updates on spreadsheets etc which has taken a back seat while I try and get on top of the day to day to-do list. Always a busy time of year.

I would always recommend keeping your own results, esp if using BFSP/exchange/taking a price etc. No need to be detailed but keeping on top of your own P/L is always useful.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • The Shadows lengthen and the busy life is hushed,ah yes its here at last,the proper racing.The rain fronts have been crossing over the last few weeks and the contrast from last autumn is immense,most yards should be starting to get some decent work into their strings from now on with soft going almost everywhere.In the 2.30 Stratford Bramble Brook has been well supported into 7/2,Brennan/Tizzard is a powerful combination and will pay to follow blindly over the large obstacles in the coming months,however as I remember from last year it took Tizzards yard a while to hit top gear.A horse that has had Josh pulling his hair out last year reappears in the 4.30 Stratford,Some Are Lucky for the George yard,talented but didn’t seem to have much heart.Following the George yards chasers will pay handsomely again but 4/1 not real value.The horse i like is Rosie Lea in the Bumper,Kittow/Brennan 2/4 in such races.I watched the last race and she won in workmanlike fashion,the 7/1 is worth a play i think

    gearoid180468 01/10/17 8:29 PM Reply


  • Nice easy 9/1 winner today before the rule 4. I want to stick with the same winning combination tomorrow with Malyasian Boleh who’s best run on the flat in the past year was on soft ground around this time last year. Josephine Gordon’s only win for the trainer before today happened to be at the track. He looks pretty well treated and will be much fresher than most of these. Gets a solid draw and JoGo should be able to track the pace here. Price looked too big.

    Moving to the jumps I think Desert Sensation looks a massive price in the 15:30 at Stratford. Ran 3 solid races in some very hot races last winner. Will have needed the run LTO but should be much fitter for it. His preferably headgear combination returns and should relish the return to soft ground. This is considerably easier. Hammond and Dr Newland are 2/3 in handicap hurdles at the track.

    Nick Mazur 01/10/17 8:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, Malaysian Boleh seems to like to come from the back and so has a few to come by over 5F+. It does have a place effort on soft ground and it is 14/1 in a poor race and so worth an each way stab.

      martin colwell 02/10/17 10:47 AM Reply


      • I think that was by design Martin. On both his last two wins he was ridden near the pace (and more importantly when Josephine was on board she rode him near the pace) so looks to have been intentionally held up recently to negate his chances.

        Nick Mazur 02/10/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • Really informative write up Nick I for one am impressed

    christopher jones 01/10/17 9:40 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris

      Nick Mazur 02/10/17 7:25 AM Reply


  • Richard Guest couldn’t buy a winner for ages and then 4 of his last 5 have won,one to keep an eye on now,he doesn’t have many runners at bath but has 3 today 4.10 Lady Joanna Vassa 4.40 Captain Scooby 5.10 Ambitious Icarus

    gearoid180468 02/10/17 9:02 AM Reply


    • I do like Lady Joanna Vassa in this race. At 9/2 it brooders on each way in not a great race.

      martin colwell 02/10/17 10:49 AM Reply


  • Josh, in the 4.40, what do you think about Caius College Girl looking to be the only horse in the race that usually leads and has won on soft ground? The race is over 5F+ and the going may not b that soft as Bath do not water the ground a lot. Will she get away from them or just provide a nice lead for Nutini?

    martin colwell 02/10/17 10:10 AM Reply


    • Hmm.. I wouldn’t touch her at a single figure price I don’t think… that ‘pace profile’ – has been over 7/8f trips.. so she has same question as our selection- about who is quick enough- she may not have the leg speed to lead over 5.5f around here- she is wide drawn also, and is rock bottom of geegeez ratings which while not necessarily a negative, is rarely a positive! The race is there to be won from the front, and maybe something will come out the pack and change tactics. Maybe CCG will be quick enough but I’d have a few niggles on that basis. She hasn’t been leading over this trip, so it is a question. Nutini – his speed figure is nearly twice that of CCG which must be some indication… the theory is that they make plenty use of him- they have too, as there won’t be a pace collapse I doubt- and it makes no sense to drop a prominent racer back in trip and then hold them up- that would be illogical. He is drawn to attach. MS knows his sprinters and must have got some speed into the legs!
      Do with that as you please, my job isn’t to put you off horses. Nutini should not be beat down to tactics, if he can track any pace (if he doesn’t lead himself) – the point is that this drop in class/trip- should see him in much better light,and in theory if so he could be very very well handicapped and win easy- and if so, it won’t matter quite so much where he is positioned- but he should be up there.
      Josh

      Josh 02/10/17 10:36 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. I have not had a bet in the race and so hope Nutini can bring it home.

        martin colwell 02/10/17 11:06 AM Reply


  • I think Seamster 340 has a good chance if one reviews the victories in August. No chance in the last five outings, but this drop in class, on soft at an ideal trip, gives the old lad the chance to boss this small field over the last couple of furlongs. One to play in running if you like. Currently 8/1.

    chrisrees 02/10/17 10:52 AM Reply


  • Selections well punted this AM… seem to have missed the boat on them! i will wait to nearer the off, and see if the exchanges give me a chance to get involved

    Jack 02/10/17 11:31 AM Reply


    • Appears to be, plenty of 8s around from last night I think, 7s, 6s was steady for a couple of hours before the plunge – albeit was only horse in that race with a line of blue early on. Suspect tipped elsewhere/connections had a good punt. We shall see, may mean sod all!
      The Ryan horse yesterday halved in price, and then drifted back past morning prices…so he may take a bit of a walk.
      Don’t think it is out ‘ES’ money, given Hobbs jumper gone from 7s to 11s!
      Josh

      Josh 02/10/17 11:43 AM Reply


      • Suspect you’re right! Interestingly, Caius College Girl has been Hugh Taylor’d!

        Jack 02/10/17 11:50 AM Reply


        • Hmmm, interesting.. and he is a time man isn’t he, so his ‘clock methods’ clearly highlighted something- rock bottom of Dr Peter May’s – let battle commence! That does make me a tad nervous but I believe he has been on a horror run of form hasn’t he? really bad few months… suspect he has turned the corner maybe, class is permanent and all that.

          Josh 02/10/17 11:55 AM Reply


          • According to ATR he “struck” with a 5/2 shot yesterday. I don’t know how you can strike with a 5/2 shot surely its just a case of picking the favorite but what do I know.

            Nick Mazur 02/10/17 12:04 PM Reply


          • I track a significnat number of tipsters and whilst Hugh Taylor has picked up a bit recently he has had a bad run the past few months. Still the horses dont know that. I did have £20 on Nutini in the end and so let us hope he can do it.

            martin colwell 02/10/17 12:39 PM Reply


            • His results don’t lie, he is very good…albeit you will struggle to get his prices..

              Jack Houston 02/10/17 1:00 PM Reply


  • It would be very nice if one of the tipped horses managed a win in the 4.40 race

    I have had a small EW stake on Louis Vee @ 33/1…noted being eased heavily LTO at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs (shorter today) when ridden by a good apprentice, this time ridden by young Greatrex….not the oldest horse in the race and has recorded a decent SF in the past

    certainly not as good these days but hopefully, it will run into a place

    norman 02/10/17 1:20 PM Reply


  • Just rejoined.
    If I read the rules correctly Global Thrill was a selection. 11.0 winner on BF and was my first bet.
    Goodonya

    jack e 02/10/17 3:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Jack,

      Yep he qualified on strategy #2, if you are backing them systematically… which is any Jumps (inc Summer Jumps) qualifier that has a price of 10/1-25/1 next to their name above, which is a generally available morning price when I look at the runners… and on that basis he qualified. His SP or Betfair SP was irrelevant under that strategy.
      #2 is very profitable and if you are going to follow them all def start small and be prepared for the odd bump, but you will find the bank climb over time.
      Josh

      Josh 02/10/17 3:13 PM Reply


  • Great Start with Global Thrill,would have been tearing up virtual slip 3 out

    gearoid180468 02/10/17 3:11 PM Reply


    • Would have tipped it up but for the fact I avoid jockey’s that haven’t won in the past 30 days but luckily had a £5ew at 12s last night given I don’t follow non-rating qualifiers. Twister winner at 5s to add to that too.

      Nick Mazur 02/10/17 3:28 PM Reply


      • Followed by the triple rated ES qualifier. It feels like one of those slot machines when you win the jackpot at the moment. Coins seem to be forever pouring out!

        Nick Mazur 02/10/17 3:47 PM Reply


        • haha- enjoy it while it lasts Nick… there will be a temporary freeze at some point, before the slots fire out the coins again! Am enjoying a good trainer stats/ratings fusion though – that’s how to back a 7/2 shot.

          Josh 02/10/17 3:49 PM Reply


          • The one thing which drew me to him was that David Egan looked head and shoulders the best jockey in the race and given he is going for the apprentice title I expect him to be getting more good rides over the last few weeks of the season than he would have done before. The irony is that out of the horses I left out Pastfact and Global Thrill were the last 2 I dismissed last night from a personal tipping PoV and my most confident pick comes fourth. Go figure lol. I’m not complaining too much really. 😉

            Nick Mazur 02/10/17 4:01 PM Reply


  • Wow that was one hell of a gamble on Pasfact got 5/1 last night £25 on lovely jubbley

    christopher jones 02/10/17 3:46 PM Reply


    • Yes me too re the 5/1. Were there any deductions?

      martin colwell 02/10/17 3:50 PM Reply


      • Nope, don’t think so.. just a bookie error- 5s just silly season, 7/2 felt more like it but a bit of value still there. And if every 5/4 shot you backed at 7/2, or 5/1 – well, then the bank only rockets one way over time.

        Josh 02/10/17 3:52 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Chris, well done for getting 5s, goes down at 7/2 as declaring on an evening price is fraught with danger – but always good when you can get even bigger evening before. 7/2 looked decent, 5s even more so! gamble wasn’t a shock given profile/oppo/jockey etc. Ideal conditions for him it seems. Let’s see if the bigger one can go in but that may be it.

      Josh 02/10/17 3:51 PM Reply


      • The Members thousands have come for Nutini and is now 5/2. I also backed Air of York last night at 4/1 and so have ended up with first two in the betting.

        martin colwell 02/10/17 4:24 PM Reply


        • 2nd/3rd/4th for me. Luckily Sky paid out on the SP2A pick.

          Nick Mazur 02/10/17 5:01 PM Reply


        • Nothing wrong with the selection of Nutini Josh. It moved from 8/1 into 5/2 and ran well. I did the winner Sunday evening as it was stat of the day on Geegeez. It was on a going day and Nutini was the victim of that.

          martin colwell 02/10/17 5:26 PM Reply


          • Oh yep no complaints there, it was a good bet, smashed the market- they clearly expected him to go close, one of those. Another day he wins. Can’t complain having backed a 5/2 shot at 7s+. On we go.

            Josh 02/10/17 5:33 PM Reply


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