Members Daily Post: 01/10/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Muss

4.45 – Torremar (all hncps + 3yo+) 30  11/1

5.20 – Bop It (all hncps) ES 10/1

 

Epsom

4.20-

Hatsaway (3yo+, + micro runs) 18/1

5.30-

El Torito (micro dist) 14/1

Duke of North (micro dist) G3  33/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (new)

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>> (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Torremar... I’ll mention him as I have had a dabble at 11/1… he drops back in class here and should appreciate what could be testing conditions.. GS/Soft in places, with rain forecast. IF he could find the form of his only turf win last October, he would go close here. That was the only other time he has run over 14f in soft. His recent form is clearly a concern and is why I want a price, and I won’t be going mad. But at least he’s had a break, and the yard is in form still. That 51 days could be viewed as a positive or a negative but he could be fresher than most if tuned up ready to go. Clearly he needs to find some form, but aged only 4, and given he is only one of a handful with proven stamina, i’ll have a dart. He races prominently also and I really can’t see an excuse here today. He could win, he could run like a drain. My hunch says the former! 🙂

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I don’t like mentioning negative stats too often, but some jump out at me.. but Mr Phelan (Hatsaway) in the last two years, is 0/55,4p with horses returning after 60+ days off. Do with that as you please!

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Re-Cap…

Not too much to shout about on the advised strategy front, a couple of seconds, a third, and that was about it. Some decent prices, and the market was well and truly beaten for some of then, small comfort,but always a good long term sign.

The star of the show was the ‘Test Zone’ with 8/1 and 10/1 winners,and a close second. It still amazes me at this time of year how ‘Twsiter’ has drifters into double figures that go on to win. A clear sign that there is still value to be found in following him now, as per the link in the Key. If you needed any more evidence I think it is safe to say he has got his fit again at home/they are generally in form. With any luck he continues and can fire in a few more decent priced winners this month. Certainly with those qualifiers i’d be on the side of… ‘if a decent price,if in doubt,have something on’

Gabrial The Tiger…. I hope some of your pins may have landed on him. Mine didn’t. Not a penny on. I was quite comfortable with that at 10/1 – i personally didn’t think that was overly generous on the basis of his last three runs- but that will teach me for looking at ‘form’. He was also a ‘been there and done it’ exposed handicapper- and that seemed to be enough for me to leave him. And when you miss winners at that price, you have to remember the number of losers you also may have avoided. No problem. However… he didn’t return at 10/1. I watched RUK/the race, with horror.. as he won, and then his SP flashed up… 16/1. Gulp. I checked BFSP… 26.00… oh bugger. I used a stronger word sat on my couch. My first thought wasn’t the return I could have got for £5 on the nose , but how I got him wrong, what did I miss etc… solving the puzzle is the drive, and I didn’t solve that one…I would have been more annoyed were he 16s in the morning and I dismissed him…but, a couple of things that I did not think about pre race… (looking at that many runners on a day can frazzle the mind also, and it’s one of those things on busy days, when trying to compliment any strategy picks)

-he was 2/7,3p over CD before this run,and was clearly a track he enjoys, along with Muss (3/3 over 7f there)

-If you ignored his last three runs, and looked at the two before, you’d have to give him a chance. Yes this was heavy again but he had won in soft and hadn’t really proved he didn’t handle the mud.

-he dropped in class from his last run

-ratings/handicap mark.. this was probably the big one.. I didn’t appreciate fully the 7lb claimer taking over (decent one at that,ok course record) and him dropping 2lb from last run. So he was 9lb lower than that and effectively racing off 67 here. 11lb below those decent runs, one in a C3, 4/5 starts ago. He was also the ONLY horse in the race who was below his last winning mark- in a race where there were not too many/any real progressive ones, that should have been more prominent in the thought process. With the claim he was 13lb below his last winning mark. That’s a lot, for a horse who had decent runs/in form, not too long ago.

-finally… I didn’t watch his last race back.. and having now done so you could have said it was an ok run, and that he probably paid for going too quick too early, and it looked like to my eye that he was in a pace battle from the off, two of them going hell for leather in heavy, in a c3. With front runners you can be more forgiving as sometimes the jockeys do too much, or they don’t get an easy lead. He was ridden just behind the leaders yesterday and that paid dividends.

Anyway.. that’s that. Those are the things I like to think about… i really don’t like leaving 26.00 winners unbacked. But it will happen again, that’s the nature of the beast, and we had 2x 20/1 shots last week, so can’t be too greedy. Still annoying though. Next time.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Colin – writing this this morning deliberately ahead of round 4 because what happens today is largely irrelevant. Great pick on Poulter. Since you have started your advice we have had a player in Sunday contention nearly every time and that is outstanding consistency in a tough market. Well done. Cheers Ben. P.s. Close House is a breathtaking course (quite literally!)

    921389 01/10/17 9:56 AM Reply


    • i echo those sentiments Colin it’s nice to have a little on somebody in contention on the final day got 28-1 on Poulter so i’ll be cheering him on 🙂

      martin whittle 01/10/17 10:41 AM Reply


  • Thanks Ben for your kind words.
    A good start but you are aware that i may go 3 months with next to nothing,again i normally only tip two players per tournament unlike many tipsters who tip five or more and do not display records.
    Have a great day and give Poulter a big shout.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 01/10/17 10:26 AM Reply


  • Off to the Emirates today so no time for write ups but Cloth of Stars looked overpriced in the Arc. Domestically I liked the look of Cotton Mill in the 16:20 at Epsom and London in the 17:30.

    Nick Mazur 01/10/17 11:42 AM Reply


    • Well that was a lot of fun. Nice and easy way to finish off the day to go with a 25/1 2nd in the Arc. Shame Compton just missed out on a place but cracking day all round.

      Nick Mazur 01/10/17 5:35 PM Reply


  • Nice to see the number of daily race meetings drop to more manageable levels from tomorrow with the jumps starting to dominate again.I always pass on Chester(too many gabrials) but there is a question that maybe someone with a bit of experience of using betfair could answer.In the example of betfair paying 26sp on Gabriel if all the members on here did it bfsp would the 26 be lower,and in general how much can you get on,say if that 26 was available before start time,would one be able to get anything substantial on at that price,say 20 pounds

    gearoid180468 01/10/17 11:55 AM Reply


    • I agree Gearoid. I can’t cope with to many meetings. My mind flits lol [bad sign]
      Lets hope the sticks return us to normality.
      BOL for the coming season.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 01/10/17 12:37 PM Reply


  • Didn’t get the 11s on Torremar….but i’ve split my bet with Bibliotecha an Irish raider who although 0/11 in Ireland did have some good runs in defeat….
    She’s a filly.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 01/10/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • first day back for me on here ( be gentle with me ) , took up the new 4 month trial . been finding my way round things again . need to take my time . i agree with everything joss has said about torremar but surely worth a little e/w .

    steve 01/10/17 1:27 PM Reply


  • At Your Service 3.00 Muss. 12/1 taken….. a system horse from Ireland.

    tonymc 01/10/17 2:59 PM Reply


  • Joined Sp2a this week also, thank you Josh for steering me that way and the excellent service you give us all on here!
    Keep up the good work and to all those that don`t realise ,profit does not come overnight , you have to wrok at it and get ready for the knocks ,but , really enjoy the highs when they come and they will ,trust me!!!
    Top class service!

    Stewart McMillan 01/10/17 6:06 PM Reply


    • You also have to work at it…haha!

      Stewart 01/10/17 6:07 PM Reply


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