Members Daily Post: 30/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Haydock

1.35 – Pioneer Spirit (2YO) 14,30 2/1 WON 3/1

2.05 –

Calder Prince (3yo+) I3 16/1 UP

Just Hiss (micro dist) ES G3 20/1  3rd 20/1>12/1

2.40 – Coolfitch (micro TJC) 20/1 UP

3.15 – Shanghai Glory (3yo+) 7/1 UP

 

Newmarket

3.35 –

Big Country (3yo+) I3 10/1 UP

Tha’ir (3yo+) 66/1 UP

5.20- Qeyaadah (3yo+) I1 G3 16/1 UP

 

Ripon

3.10 – Yorkshiredebut (3yo+) I3 12/1 UP

3.45 –

Nameitwhatyoulike (all hncps + micro dist) 18/1 2nd 

Red Pike (all hncps + micro dist) I1 G3 10/1 UP

Naggers (3yo+) 9/2 UP

4.20-

Pumble Chook (3yo+) 6/1 UP

Breanski (micro age) ES I1 G3 

4.55 – Honeysuckle Lil (micro class) – ES  11/1 UP 7/1

 

Chester

3.05 – 

Luiz Vaz De Torres (micro going) I3 10/1 UP

Dark Devil (micro going)  H3 I3 G3 3/1 2nd 

Gabrial The Tiger (micro going) I3 10/1  WON 10/1>16/1

3.40 – Gabrial’s Kaka (micro going) 7/1 UP

5.25 –

Monaco Rose (micro going) 16/1 UP

Liquid Gold (micro going)  H3 8/1 UP

5.55 –

Arty Campbell (micro class) H3 I3 12/1 UP

Plymouth Sound (micro class) I1 20/1 2nd 20/1 

Earthy (micro class) I3 25/1 UP

Angel Gabrial (micro going)  I1 G11/1 UP

Gabrial’s Star (micro going) 14/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen

4.30 –

Play The Ace (micro age) 14/1 UP

Germany Calling (micro runs + 90 days)  14,30  16/1 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (new)

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>> (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No ‘bet of the day’… I have had a decent flick through and nothing jumping off the page to my eyes, with the general profile I am trying to focus on with the flat runners.. unexposed/progressive/doing something different… and neither of those jumpers were leaping off the page at me either but I may have them wrong…

NOTES (my own subjective views for interest)

It feels like one of those ‘meh’ days in truth… a few in that list may surprise me, but I wouldn’t fall off my seat if there isn’t much excitement in section 1 today, as most runners seem to have the odd question to my subjective eye (some serious,like ground/distance/class etc) and/or are running in very competitive races… I’m conscious that it has been a bit of a mad week/month and I am anxiously waiting the betting gods to give me a slap in the face. Which will come at some point. I will mention a few who looked more intriguing to my eyes…

Red Pike… the draw is what gave me more confidence with him- the stalls are stand side here today on the straight course which would suggest you want to be drawn high, and not marooned up the middle of the track. He is right against the rail and if they do not blast out and attempt to make all, connections deserve to lose. If they take him back he will need gaps, which may happen. His price was ok. There are two niggles- he doesn’t like winning very often these days! – and the ground is an unknown. He has only raced on worse than good/good to soft once, so I can’t say he won’t handle it. Hopefully the rail may be better ground, they make a fast start and he just keeps on all the way through the line, nothing ever heading him. He has been running well in decent races.

Honeysuckle Lil... I thought that price was ok and she is drawn high. It isn’t a race type to go mad in given the jockeys but ours is in form and she has ridden a couple of winners. The horse is 9lb below her last winning mark and gets another 8lb off here with claim. T Easterby went quiet but has had a couple of winners in recent days. She is just too well handicapped to ignore at that price, in conditions that are fine. The lack of any ratings pointers (red symbols as per key) concerned me so not one I will go mad on, but we shall see.

Coolfitch... at 20s I have had a small dart which may be more heart than head… this one won for us at York earlier in the season for some of my ‘big meeting notes’ – O’meara cleaned up that week with 60+ odd points from memory against one angle I found, with three big price winners. That seems a long time ago now. Anyway, this one sluiced through the mud that day and was impressive…conditions will be fine here, Danny T rides for a long time in a while, and she is only 3. You’d be concerned by her last two runs and whether she is up to C2, but this looks an open race and at that price I will have a stab to find out.

*

GL with whatever you back today, with any luck there is the odd winner above, esp for some of the strategies.

Don’t forget there are some stats/trends for Cambridgeshire on free post which may be of interest.

*

 

One of those Saturdays… Saturdays, esp during this time of year (and peak season on flat) with 5-7 meetings and many handicaps can lead to a long list such as that above. If you focus on the strategies, and which ones you may be following systematically say, it makes that list less daunting. I have no idea on the market as I write but there will no doubt be the odd shorty you can just throw out on price alone. Or you can use various pointers (all those colours codes/letters next to horse) as your list of starting points. On day’s like this, and in general actually, I know I will miss winners. That has happened, it will happen again. And again. That is more likely on days like this as I may not have the time, or energy say, to look through all of those. I will want to check any monster prices- missing winners is fine…having nothing/never considering those in the 12/1, 16/1+ range, can hurt more than others. But, again, that happens – and I will also start with the more lightly raced ones and those horses that may be doing something different. You may not have the time or inclination to look through that list. That’s fine. Just focus on any strategies you may have decided to start tracking/backing to small stakes.. having had a flick through the relevant links in the Key above. Do not back everything in section 1. That won’t end well. (not to level stakes anyway…jumps does ok ‘backing all’ but high risk and profits reliant on a handful of monster winners. And backing that many horses in a day is just far too stressful for me) You just have to be happy with your own progress, and that of your own bank, over time. 🙂 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

5.10 Gowran- Tout Est Permis (12/1< best, 1x 66/1) WON 8/1 

CD Jockeys 

2.05 Hayd – Original Choice (any odds) 2nd 

NTD

3.20 MR – Better Days (m1/3/5) UP

4.30 MR – Balleybolley (m1/4/5) WON 10/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Sunday’s Post… likely to be up Sunday morning..i’ll get it posted asap, by 11am latest but earlier if I can.

*

IMPORTANT…

If you are new… remember The Key is your friend… and i am quite aware that when first setting eyes on these posts you may think what the hell is going on. The point of the extended trial period is to take a long term view… you may settle on an approach in one week, it may take 3 months. There is a welcome note link in the Key above (what you should have been emailed) and a longer welcome video… worth a watch at some point. Remember, DO NOT back everything in Section 1.

The video below is a shorter ‘tour’ of a members’ post explaining what is going on. So if you look at the content above and are wondering what the red symbols are, how you can approach the list of horses etc then please watch it.

 

 

 

Next week I will record a brief video looking at the strategies, win SR%> losing runs, betting banks etc.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh,

    I can hear your brain whirling from here.

    Sorry to burst the bubble but…

    R 4.55 – Honeysuckle Lil ( micro class) ES

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 29/09/17 6:44 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, i thought I was getting too good at this ‘finding the qualifiers’ lark! 🙂
      been a long few days. All the Easterby clan horses have blurred into one in that race for me I think!
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 29/09/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • Josh,

    Given its the one thing I cannot check are there really 2 Top rated Inform I1 qualifiers in the 17:55 at Chester or is one of them meant to be top 3?

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 29/09/17 9:58 PM Reply


    • Joint top,same score.

      Josh 29/09/17 10:55 PM Reply


      • Cool thanks

        Nick Mazur 29/09/17 11:08 PM Reply


  • Selections for Saturday – Part one.

    At Haydock we need horses who can go on the ground – so 1.50 Englishman, whose actual form may betray his ability to go n such ground? 3.15 Don Juan Triumphant, a group horse in a handicap who likes if soft underfoot. 2.05 Century Dream, who if he can be prominent should be suited to conditions.

    At Newmarket I like Beckford over 6F in the 2.55. If you can get 50/1 have a few quid on Danzan as well. In the Cambridgeshire I like Al Hayem, as I hear his trainer sees him as better then handicaps and so can win this.

    martin colwell 29/09/17 10:27 PM Reply


    • Brilliant stuff Martin , top work … Thanks very much 🙂

      joners 30/09/17 4:54 PM Reply


  • Sorry lads, can you show me the report/system to read for this:
    Germany Calling (micro runs + 90 days) 14,30

    been looking for it just to have a read?

    Jack 30/09/17 12:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Jack… all Jumps qualifiers from now are from my new report… have refreshed etc, 2014-, not 2013- like last years… it isn’t complete yet, will be next week…and the link will be in the Key when it it’s ready.
      Josh

      Josh 30/09/17 9:03 AM Reply


      • Looking forward to the new jumps TTP. My tracker is loaded up from studying over the summer. I will share as we go.

        martin colwell 30/09/17 10:12 AM Reply


        • Look forward to that then Martin 🙂 …. as for todays jumps , we used to have a “Paddy watch ” user who posted Brennans rides , i think Cloonacool could be worth a punt MR2.55 was best priced 10/1 last night , a previous winner of this race and looks like its a target again .

          joners 30/09/17 10:22 AM Reply


          • It is the 3.55 for clarity. A lot of horses in this race who like to be mid div, as Cloonacool does, with only a couple who like to lead. Not much form on the going, Now 11/2 best price. Not enough value for me but good luck to you.

            martin colwell 30/09/17 11:26 AM Reply


          • I did note that Joners,Paddy rode on his last win here as well,I had a bit on at 15/2,looks like connections were on it early at 10/1,it evaporated pretty quick,As Nick alluded to,when you get Paddy on a chaser at around the 10/1 mark,probably only sensible to back it,especially for FOB Tom George and Colin Tizzard.Doubt I will do a Paddy Watch this season,the 10/1 on Master Dee 4.30MR is a no brainer really.

            gearoid180468 30/09/17 11:46 AM Reply


            • Cheers for correcting my timing error Martin . I did the same last night Gearoid and took the 15/2 e/w (B365) wasnt quick enough for 10s …. i did read the quote from Nick Brown racing which at 1st put my off due to him saying that Cloonacool had missed some work , but the money still came for it …. found his quote ….

              “CC won the race 2 years ago off of a 3lb higher mark, and looked to be doing it again last year off of a 10lb higher mark before falling heavily 2 out. He has been aimed at the race, but had a brief hold up in his prep. Stuart is very pleased with his well being, and we hope he can run his usual race!”

              joners 30/09/17 12:18 PM Reply


        • Very sporting of you Martin.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 30/09/17 12:40 PM Reply


  • I am taking two against the field in the Cambridgeshire, Qassem and Linguistic both at 16’s. Linguistic has run well after a break, trip is fine and trainer in form. Qassem ran well in defeat at York in a big field handicap and to me looks a solid EW play

    Mark 30/09/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • GL Mark, just looking at my shortlist on the free post was giving me a headache!

      Josh 30/09/17 10:39 AM Reply


  • I agree with Martin on the Cambridgeshire with El Hayem. Fits all the trends. Ryan Moore has picked him. Mark Howard has also tipped him up. Still fairly unexposed with this being his 10th run but has ran 2 good races in decent fields. With 8 places seemed solid enough. I do want to have a left-field saver on Carry on Deryck. Was 2nd in this last year on ground that may have been a shade fast. Since than he has ran in 2 Grade 3s with credit including a cracking re-appearance run last month behind 2 subsequent winners. He would have to break a lot of trends but we know he likes the track and stays the trip and today’s ground may actually be more ideal than last year and he is only 2lbs higher with the jockey claim. The other thing I found interesting is most of the horses at the top of the market don’t have much experience in big field handicaps on straight tracks which isn’t the case here. He is more likely to finish 3rd or 4th but one I couldn’t get away from at the price.

    Elsewhere I am actually more confident than Josh about the fact that Red Pike will handle the ground. Personally I have always thought he was better on ground with cut given his excellent record on good/soft and going by breeding he might even improve on it. Looks to have a cracking draw and lets hope he makes all. The Great Wilfred Consolation race has worked out well.

    Moving on to the jumping and I thought Master Dee looked a solid bet in the 16:30 at Market Rasen. Had some smart form last year and I think he is on a nice mark. The fact that he stays further is a plus given there are a lot of front runners here. Has done well here in the past. Plus it is dream team so don’t need too much of a reason to back him. Have thrown some loose change on Poker School since I think he will be winning soon and trainer is in great form but not a horse I want to touch at least than double figure price.

    Nick Mazur 30/09/17 11:09 AM Reply


    • 8th for Deryck and I will love with the place on Dee given the Twister winner.

      Nick Mazur 30/09/17 4:42 PM Reply


  • Apart from doing 3 from the trends…. i think Book of Dreams 2.30 Chester has an excellent chance at 5/1 currently….. Colts are strengthening up now and there is no value in the other colt Ayutthaya…both are drawn well, but if Franie Norton can get in front…he’s very difficult to pass at Chester. I think he rates as the best % jockey for that.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 30/09/17 12:29 PM Reply


Post A Reply