Members Daily Post: 29/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Haydock 

1.40 – Regal Mirage (micro class) I3 9/2 4/1 UP

5.05 –

Chosen Character (all hncps) I3 14/1 UP 33/1

Silvery Moon (micro distance) ES G1  7/1 2nd 6/1 

My Amigo (micro runs) 12/1 UP

5.35 – In Flexible (all hncps) H3 I3  7/1 UP

 

Newmarket 

5.20 – Palmerston (3yo+) I3

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

2.00 – Little Pop (all hncps + hncp chase) 14,30  ES H1 I3 G3  11/4  WON 5/2 SP (dec price) 

3.10 – Roll The Dough (all hncps + micro TJC) 30 ES 6/1 3rd 4/1  (ran as if needing that i think)

5.25 – Ambre Des Morais (hncp hurdle) H1 I3 G3 7/4 WON 5/2 

5.55 – New Millennium (all hncps + micro TJC)  ES 30  4/1 UP 13/2 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (new)

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/72,26p, -3.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/136, +20.6)

No ‘bet of the day’ but… (no real fully unexposed/doing something different types that I like to try and focus on… My Amigo could fall into that category below but there are two others in the race and homing in on just one looks dangerous to my eyes…)

NOTES

(my subjective views to use, abuse, ignore as you please…if in doubt pick the odd strategy you may wish to follow and go with those.. Silvery Moon hits two, then the three Elite Squad at Worcester…)

Haydock…

They may need the waders out here today. This could be tough. It’s pouring down in Liverpool (nothing new there at this time of year…and yet again you could count the sunny summer days on one hand! Luckily it has some other things going for it!) and they are forecast further rain there.

I think it’s hard to dismiss any of those listed out of hand, so a quick word on all but one of them (we know what happens now…)

Regal Mirage… (UP, still running…) i’m probably getting cocky playing at such short odds (4/1, 9/2 is short in my book, and below that..well, it’s hard to win long term…and if you regularly play under 7/2, even tougher…i’d say near enough impossible..but that’s just me) but you can make a case.. I had a look back and he had 5 runs in just about 7 weeks. That LTO 5th isn’t a shock in that scenario. I suspect he needed a break. Now, he is 3, and they could have put him away for the year. But he has had 6 weeks off and they go again. At this time of the season they must think he has more wins in him? Whether that is this run, or one of the next two when fully sharp again, we shall see. He is also a pace angle and could make all. None in here have won/placed on Heavy but he is a soft ground winner at Pontefract, and that will have to do. He clearly stays well to win at 12f around there in soft, and IF fully tuned up could keep ongoing. The RP Spotlight (in GG gold racecards) says he needs a career best…well yep, he does… but he is only 3 and it’s impossible to say that is not what we are about to see. Worth a dabble. If he wins that will pay for about 5-6 pints, which may well be consumed tomorrow at Liverpool’s very own Oktoberfest.

The 5.05…

I would not fall off my seat if any of those won, and I will play the lot (probably all to be beaten by Instant Attraction!)… Silver Moon..2nd  well the hope is that this is a right old slog in the mud. I know he is 10, but he hasn’t been going backwards in recent runs… he has been going forwards/plodding on… which gives some hope. He will need them to do too much up front but it is the Heavy ground that will play into his favour. He stays further and in these conditions older/stronger/battle hardened legs can come into their own. Oh yes,and only him and…

Chosen Character UP have winning form in Heavy. So, on that basis alone at the odds they are worth a dabble. Chosen Character… they must try and make all with him here. He is happiest at Haydock, making all. He won this race in 2012. Get him out the front and hope that he is on a going day. IF he is, with that weight on his back and another 7lb off, he could stay there all the way. Has to be a play for me at those odds.

My Amigo- UP well, you couldn’t be overly confident but this 4 year old is fairly lightly raced… at first look at his run LTO i thought… he faded over 7f in soft, how is he getting 8f in heavy?.. then I noticed that was his first run since April, and first for the yard. So, at these odds… i can ‘assume’ (rightly or wrongly) that he needed it. 14/1 would suggest he wasn’t fancied. He has some french blood, some Irish blood and may relish conditions… I suspect he won’t stay and will flounder BUT… i simply don’t know if he will handle heavy, and a I don’t know if he will stay. It’s his first try at the trip. He could relish both. In that scenario you want a price, because you will be wrong more often than not, but at 12s you don’t need to be right too often… I won’t be going mad on him, but he could go ok, and as I have backed the other two, I have to have a dart as you know what could happen.

One of them could win, they could all still be running this time tomorrow. Pays your money, takes your chance. Silver Moon hits two strategies, Elite Squad and Strat #6 (top rated, 6/1+ on morning prices- those I put next to horses name)

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Over at Worcester…

In truth nothing at those odds leaps out of me but I will not be negative in this section!

I will mention Little Pop WON 5/2  …  brace yourselves folks… when I have a positive view on horses in this price range it usually ends in disaster..but but but… 11/4/3/1 could look ok- gulp… If he were not likely to get an easy lead in this I wouldn’t mention him…but that makes a big difference for me, in any chase. They will attempt to make all. He wore the TT+Hood together for the first time LTO and he won well enough. He could get these on the stretch. Twister is in form, he is an ES qual…and has some ratings pointers to back up his chance. He could blitz these from the front. Could. We shall see. (cue yourself for the inevitable note tomorrow… ‘why did I play on a shorty again, it rarely ends well!’)

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That’s the lot for today.

There will be some stats/trends for the Cambridgeshire up on the free post soon, to  have a flick through.

As always, GL with any bets. Never dive in, start small, build up over time.

Josh

 

 

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Quick re-cap

Well, as luck would have it that was my best ever day in ‘the notes’… obviously out of the 4 horses from section 1 that caught my eye, I ‘tipped’ the only loser. If you hang around for any amount of time that is just the kind of thing I do! Moron.

Still, winners at 20/1, 8/1 and 11/1 helped make it a good day. I believe that takes ‘the notes’ to +74 points in September- if you had put 1 point on horses that were given a positives/neutral mention in section 2. I have felt a bit liberated this month with the ‘notes’ approach and actually not putting more than 5, the odd 10, on the runners.. for some reason that appears to have affected me in a positive way pre race/in the morning and how I look at the horses. I don’t think I want to change said approach but I will try and ‘tip’ a few more! And of course I am now due a wheelbarrow full of losers, that isn’t sustainable. But at those odds, you don’t need many winners in this game. Bloody good fun for £2.50s and £5s, and that is what it’s all about.

There were three personal positives..

1 – two of those winners were not covered by any strategies, and it is always good to find those. Dance King hit a couple, #1 + #6 in the Flat Advised Strategies.

2 – Dance King drifted from morning prices, and so did Arrowtown… the former hit two strategies, both were mentioned in notes. More evidence that as yet our little community isn’t affecting the market in any way.. so keep doing what you are doing.. inc when you bet and how much! 🙂 I jest.

3. Well, a kind of positive ( a neg for me in sense I got this one wrong…) … in the comments Paul was adamant that Van Gerwen would run a good race. I didn’t mention him in the notes as I was a bit dismissive of his chance. I try and and stick to positives in the notes, with the occasional lapse! He very nearly won at 20/1, 40 odd BFSP I think… a close second… so I got that wrong, nearly very wrong. Paul read that horse/his chance against odds, very well.. and in essence, that’s what it’s about. Differing opinions. Attacking the horses in section 1 with your judgement, using everything at your disposal.. whether the strategies (you may follow some systematically), trainer form pointers, ratings pointers, or like Van Gerwen, who didn’t hit a strategy…simply looking at the horse and deciding you want to have a go. Those winners are very satisfying.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

2.00 Worc – Little Pop (M1/2/3/5) WON 5/2

2.35 – Ballymalin (M2) WON 5/2>7/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT…

If you are new… remember The Key is your friend… and i am quite aware that when first setting eyes on these posts you may think what the hell is going on. The point of the extended trial period is to take a long term view… you may settle on an approach in one week, it may take 3 months. There is a welcome note link in the Key above (what you should have been emailed) and a longer welcome video… worth a watch at some point. Remember, DO NOT back everything in Section 1.

The video below is a shorter ‘tour’ of a members’ post explaining what is going on. So if you look at the content above and are wondering what the red symbols are, how you can approach the list of horses etc then please watch it.

 

That’s the lot for today.

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Josh
    Picked this up today. You may already know
    – trainer Mark Johnston’s runners are 0-33 in the last couple of seasons when headgear has gone on for the first time.
    It maybe of some assistance when MJ tips come around.

    Great day today, put a £ ew acc on your 4 selections just as bit of fun nearly had to get the wheelbarrow out. Lol.

    Best Racing site ever. Enjoying every minute, retired so no work to get in the way, just the wife. Lol.

    Mike

    Mike

    mickeydee 28/09/17 8:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      I can’t remember if I had stumbled across such stats before- think I did look at his headgear record once, but such comments/snippets are always appreciated in these parts. Always useful to know, esp with shorter priced ones. Not sure i’d let it put me off a biggie if they had plenty else in favour.

      Ah, you are too kind. There are some very good racing sites out there, but i’d like to think we are near the top for what we do… not sure there is anything else like this about, certainly not on the daily content side etc. In effect a window into how I like to approach the game- thank the lord some of you find it enjoyable!

      ohh.. nice little fun bet.. still an ok return? some beer money.. but yea that would have been a nice start to the weekend! Next time 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 29/09/17 11:23 AM Reply


  • mixed day on prices yesterday 4 winners 2 drifted and 2 came in so i suppose it evens itself out, got 16.0, 10.24, 9.24 and 2.68 up 88pts on the day bank now up 621.66pts 🙂 cracking run these last 3 days

    martin whittle 28/09/17 9:36 PM Reply


    • just a quick mention on bookies it seems skybet are now limiting my account, don’t know why it’s not as if i’m racking it in just looked at my statement for this year and i’m up £656.62 over 9 months, only found out by mistake meant to place a 50p patent (for my dad) and mucked up and tried placing a £5 patent they refused the bet maximum they would allow was £3.20.
      i’m in the process of setting up email/paypal for my dad so i can open another betfair account to keep my banks separate ,i’ll just keep skybet for my “mug” bets.

      martin whittle 28/09/17 9:54 PM Reply


      • Welcome to my world.

        martin colwell 29/09/17 8:53 AM Reply


      • Martin, Betfair charge for deposits via paypal. not that it really matter, but i have done the same for some time now. Paypal is the way to go

        Jack 29/09/17 11:06 AM Reply


        • Yes I am a Pay Pal man. Try a few muggy casino or slots bets on betting sites. The algorithms are sometimes programmed to pick up such bets as sign of a mug punter. Worth a tenner every now and again on such sites to try to throw the algo’s off your scent.

          martin colwell 29/09/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    To be brutally honest I’ve not much to contribute racing knowledge wise. Hopefully that may change in time. But got to say I enjoy your blog immensely and your results speak for themselves. I’d recommend anyone to subscribe. I must also say you have some very knowledgeable members who do add real insight and value to your blog. A big thumbs up from me.

    robertw 28/09/17 9:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Robert,
      Thanks for taking the plunge and giving it a go… I would like to think we do brutal honesty quite well in these parts, so you will fit in just fine around here 🙂

      (Ignore that… just seen you had been a member for a while!! ) 🙂 Still…

      If you want to/are willing to learn, you are in the right place- I would be disappointed if through reading my notes etc, watching the odd video in time, reading other members’ posts, you didn’t pick up something useful to apply to the game.

      I mean if you have a spare 45 mins.. you may enjoy this recent vid.. around 850+ views so far…

      https://youtu.be/Ed0hH1wr7cI

      I was lucky I suppose.. I got my horror/losing loads of money, experience out the way early. Most racing fans/punters have been there. And I was lucky to stumble across Geegeez (may have been nag nag nag back then) after that, and from Matt found many a decent blog.. Gavin P, nag nag nag, Ben Aitken – those three being main ones I still read regularly. All three contributed to my fascination with trainers and big race/stats trends.

      and we are all still learning- the ideas I explore in the video above have only really come to me this year- I did not think about the flat game/horses in that way before.

      And specialisation helps… i do like a muddy 3+ handicap chase- the only race I will really ‘attack cold’ from scratch. (no trainer stats quals/stats-trends etc) – and by just focusing on something like that it can really help.

      You will note that most of the stats in the reports are all for handicaps as well. It amazes me the number , esp ‘tipsters’- who tip in maidens, group races, all distance, all codes, all non handicaps etc- as well as handicaps. For me the game is far too complicated for that – i doff my cap to anyone who has constant success across all race types. That is some skill. And not one I will every attempt to master. Just the 3m+ handicap chases are hard enough!

      Patience and a willingness to improve tend to get you a long way in this game.

      Best
      Josh

      Josh 29/09/17 11:32 AM Reply


  • Well done today Josh,150 up in the 3 days to e2.50 stakes,stress free fun!
    A horse i posted up few weeks ago won again(Ourmullion) at Chelmsford tonight but its best price was 9/1 and then was 9/2 this morning,so value was gone and we don’t do shorties here.
    Sometimes i do my analysis back to front,looking at the Jockey first.At Newcastle Lewis Edmunds is the standout jockey with 20% and +51,he has 5 bookings tomorrow evening from 5/1-33/1,which makes it bit tricky as all the bookings are with trainers in good form and decent track form.In the 7.45 he rides Round The Island 12/1,for Richard Whitaker who is in red hot form and the horse has course winning form.The other one of his rides i was interested in is the 6.45,Newmarket Warrior 14/1,his sole and only win came at the track and that may spark a return to form

    gearoid180468 28/09/17 11:28 PM Reply


    • Not a bad little return that Gerry, for stress free stakes indeed. That’s the way to do it. I will not curse your superb efforts by going anywhere near a horse on that surface, I wish you luck!! 🙂

      Josh 29/09/17 11:35 AM Reply


  • Im still banging the Longsdon drum . 5.55 Wor Nightfly 7/1 …. dropped back in trip today…. cant let this young horse run without throwing a few shackles at her with the stable in this current form.
    Well done yesterday Josh , hope your free post readers sign up and swell the RTP clan.

    joners 29/09/17 3:36 AM Reply


    • Even had the winner of a 50k hurdle at Auteuil on Wednesday with Snow Leopardess ridden by James Revely. Stable bang in form and despite my initial concerns with the new stable jock Jonny Burke, the confidence looks to be high now with a few winners under his belt.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 29/09/17 8:07 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh have not had chance to look through all the selections as busy working but have had a look at a couple and they both look good to me. The micro system bet on free service of John gosdens looks to be l proving as he steps up in distance and there looks more to come.Added to the spice is that he has won the race for the last two years. Over at haydock regal mirage looks to be l proving for soft ground and staying trips.

    paul bailey 29/09/17 9:37 AM Reply


  • 3.10 worc. thought Roll the Dough looked a bit short considering not been seen for 321 days, but Hobbs/Johnson/Worc/60+days are 7 from 10 +9pts in last 2yrs and 9 from 20 in last 5 yrs … GL

    jamesm 29/09/17 10:13 AM Reply


    • Yep must admit I had similar thoughts.. albeit didn’t look at those stats! Of more concern.. other than his inexperience.. he is up against a few in form/fit chasers, some of whom also look progressive. Albeit only a quick glance, but at 6s I was a bit on the fence! I don’t like thinking about the oppo for bigger priced ones, just ‘our’ horses, but at that price, and given the break, I sometimes tend to have more of a look. We shall see. Given his profile clearly no shock if he runs a big race.

      Josh 29/09/17 10:27 AM Reply


      • The other point is he last ran in what was one of the 2-3 hottest races of last jump season (horse 17L behind him won the next 2 before you look at those who finished ahead) so he probably doesn’t need to be fully fit.

        Nick Mazur 29/09/17 11:30 AM Reply


        • Yep, i suspect he will be fit enough, esp if they really like him- and in context that his profile suggests he may have had issues- so Hobbs wouldn’t take any chances. IF able to do everything with him they wanted at home.. saw tweets from Sherwoods saying they had only just started schooling on grass I believe, thanks to the rain – had been to dry etc.
          He has been nibbled at, so could well be one who as I write I have got wrong… maybe trust the stats to a point! Think the lack of any ratings pointers may have niggled at me also. 5s still ok I suppose. This fence sitting with him is starting to hurt!

          Josh 29/09/17 11:38 AM Reply


          • Im in the ROLL THE DOUGH camp , (@ 6/1last night ) as Nick pointed out regards the uttoxeter race … that was Hot .. 6 of the 12 runners WON next time out ,,,, that went straight into my Tracker … dropped a few more Ilbs today , jumping will have to be sharper but couldnt let this run un-backed .
            Trust the stats … as Josh would say 🙂

            joners 29/09/17 2:37 PM Reply


            • Josh has noted those thoughts! 🙂

              Josh 29/09/17 2:42 PM Reply


  • Josh, a few years ago was given a print of Pat Eddery and Dancing Brave, King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth diamond stakes winner 1986 by Max Brandrett. signed by Pat Eddery. size 80 by 60 cm. It was given to me as part payment for a job i done for a race horse trainer by the name of Norman Berry. Question is would you or any of the fellow members know how much value it has. yours booman3. ps. just signed up, looking forward to the action ahead.

    antony james bailey 29/09/17 10:29 AM Reply


    • Sounds like a superb print to me… but I have no idea how much such an item would be worth! Maybe if you are near Newmarket, somewhere like the Museum or someone would have an idea! I’d be tempted to just stand it next to your ‘racing desk’ (we all have one of those??! :)) and admire it.

      i’ll do my best for you, it will be a fun few months for sure. Testing at times, but ultimately rewarding.
      Josh

      Josh 29/09/17 11:33 AM Reply


  • Heavy ground at haydock can cause a clash between an improver and a reliable older handicapper in simple terms ground can be a great leveller. I fancy regal mirage for 1.40 let’s hope progression wins the day

    paul bailey 29/09/17 1:37 PM Reply


    • He looks a picture on my TV screen.. fit, full of life… i can have a dodgy eye in that regard mind. We shall see! He may or may not handle heavy/bottomless, but that is a question for all of them I think.

      Josh 29/09/17 1:40 PM Reply


      • That will teach me! 🙂 Just Little Pop fluffing lines to complete my ‘shorty’ double of misery haha. – He hasn’t run his race there – was a bit too lively early on/keen…not an excuse though- but whatever that ground is there- he clearly hasn’t handled it- Ponty Soft clearly no indication for Haydock ‘bottomless heavy’ ! Moving on.

        Josh 29/09/17 1:46 PM Reply


  • No inevitable note needed for Little Pop

    finalflight 29/09/17 2:10 PM Reply


    • That was never in much doubt to my eyes! Do like a front running/in form chaser… very well judged ride.. horse is tougher than the second also, which helped, did it well enough..always holding come the line. We won’t jump up and down about 5/2 winners mind, but every Little helps!

      Josh 29/09/17 2:14 PM Reply


  • Josh – better than a 5/2 loser mate
    Sets the day up nicely – hopefully

    finalflight 29/09/17 2:17 PM Reply


    • Well, very wise words indeed!
      Day will be won or lost on that 5.05 , they must try and make all on Chosen C in that ground, if on song he could be so hard to catch/past. And if something does go by with any luck it’s one of the others.
      have got on the fence and had a go at Hobbs horse also, having pondered a bit more. 6s/5s in that race prob just big enough to forgive my niggles.
      Josh

      Josh 29/09/17 2:21 PM Reply


      • Irony is he would have fallen below my 3/1 minimum if the rule 4 happened yesterday but as he was 3/1 last night he counted as a bet and as he qualified on three fronts £17.5 went on.

        PS Surely Silver would be preferable in the 17:05 😉

        Nick Mazur 29/09/17 2:27 PM Reply


        • Nice winner there for the comment in free post! Well done. 9/1, 11.00 BF, always moving so well. textbook Frankie.

          Josh 29/09/17 3:08 PM Reply


          • I take massive notice when Frankie rides a Gosden horse for the first time (probably should add it on HRB as a system to remind me to look at them all) and given past form she didn’t really need to improve very much. No disrespect to anyone else Gosden uses but they have such a great record together he is just class. Rare you get double figures on that combo so very rude not to look the gift horse in the mouth even if it did look competitive on paper.

            Nick Mazur 29/09/17 3:27 PM Reply


  • Well Played Nick … cracking winner , Congrats

    joners 29/09/17 3:18 PM Reply


  • Is it just me or was that a shocking ride on Silvery Moon?

    kevin31 29/09/17 5:19 PM Reply


    • Nope, don’t think so… well not for me anyway…had him in the right place on that ground, kept galloping..ran his race… nothing was beating that winner.. he has hosed up, with about 12lb+ in hand in those conditions by the look of it.. no shock given he was 3yo, his profile etc, but odds were there to play on those three for small stakes.

      Josh 29/09/17 5:23 PM Reply


  • Maybe, but just thought he was never asked the question. I would bow to your superior knowledge though Josh, maybe my pocket talking too

    kevin31 29/09/17 5:25 PM Reply


    • ha, well it is a game of opinions… one thing I have learnt in the last year, odds we play at, etc etc.. is that any perceived bad rides etc always even out in the end.. and we back many winners where punters on other horses may be cursing their luck for ‘bad rides’ etc – it’s a game of fine margins… and another of the reasons why it is all about the odds/leaving top end of market well alone. I can’t control it, so while at times i’ll get a bit annoyed at the moment, i soon forget about any perceived rides. I can live with that X being loaned back to bookie, temporarily!
      I’ll watch it back again, but from live I don’t think any sort of ride was winning that/making a difference, given way winner won. He seemed active enough, and asked him the question..
      But, if you thought he could have done better, you may be right, keep an eye on him as he may pop up somewhere.

      just re watched it.. looked fine to me… has pushed and shoved, tapped him a couple times, but he knows the horse well.. and certainly in that ground you can’t flog them too much, had every chance to my eye- they have all just bumped into one- who was eased down at the end.. winning margin could have been much more. One of those. A regulation loser, one of many we will have 🙂

      Josh 29/09/17 5:35 PM Reply


      • Just re watched it myself (blinkers off, hood back on) you’re absolutely right Josh, nothing getting near that winner

        kevin31 30/09/17 10:26 AM Reply


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