Flat 2017: 60+ Days Trainers
5.30 Newm – Reach High (14/1<)
Members’ post.. ‘the notes’… my subjective thoughts on some of the qualifiers from Section 1 of today’s Members’ Post…. if anything these notes are there to provide something of interest to read, to compliment the advised systematic strategies etc…
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)
5.30 Newmarket – Night Circus – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 8/1 (Bet365)
7/1 seems generous enough here as he does tick plenty of boxes… young, unexposed, trainer in red hot form, horse running ok/fit/in form… that is a solid foundation. Outside of his maiden (which was a win over CD) this is his first run in a C3, having run in Listed/C2 events. He moves up 1 furlong from his last run (he was staying on) and back at a track with a climb to the line. Both those factors looks sure to help. And he drops from that C2 to C3. He seems versatile ground wise, and the GS can’t be an excuse. In any case you should be more than happy to take a chance at the odds. He seemed to handle soft fine LTO, going forwards come the line, not backwards.
The final tick/idea, is around the field size/pace/tactics… he won a bit field maiden. Since then he has ran in small fields, more tactical races where I suspect they haven’t gone a true gallop. On his start here two starts go he was keen in a small field and didn’t settle. That told come the end. The hope is that they go a stronger pace here with more runners, that he can get cover, and finish off his race. I thought recent races/how they have been run, may be a valid excuse and this should suit much better today. We shall see if I have that right but with his profile at 7s/8s, i had to have a go. Win , lose or draw, i’m happy that is a good bet on paper. Remember, that is a ‘horse only based approach’ – i really haven’t bothered looking at the other runners in much depth! No need for a headache at this time in the day, or in general in this type of race!
NOTES…. (subjective, positives about some of the others… if a horse is not mentioned it does not mean I am negative as to their chance necessarily, just found more positives in those mentioned )
(positive mentions for horses in the ‘notes’ are around +35 points up in September, if you’d have thrown 1 ‘point’ at them each…as a guide…they are not tips, just added info /thoughts to use as you please..but have done ok at highlighting nice priced winners from the initial list of trainer stats qualifiers)
Toy Theatre... (3.10 New) WON 20/1> 8/1 (hopefully, you ignored my BFSP advice, or did so when you noticed some market support…20s for an age, 23.00 BF, 16s>14s>then it crashed) hmmm i will have a small nibble at BFSP, £2.50, maybe £5… she does at least have a ratings pointer. Only her 5th start on turf, SDS jumps back in the plate and she has 22lb less weight on her back than the last day. Maybe 9-12 is too much for her who knows, and hence why they have opted for a lower weight in a better race. She ran ok at Chester a couple of starts back. It is a stab and a step up in class. And the trainer could be in better form. There is a chance SDS tries and makes all also… the race is there to be won from the front by someone I think. The market would also suggest this is fairly open, much of a muchness at the top end. SO, clearly not one to go mad on, but you will see worse 20/1+ runners and you never know.
Dance King… (4.40 Ponty) WON 8/1 double top rated so of some immediate interest albeit that angle is only ticking along/not pulling up many trees just yet. This is a been there and done it horse. There is a run at Haydock in soft/C2, which suggests the ground could be fine here. And I think he may appreciate this stiff climb to the line. This could be hard work today and he does look a dour stayer… you can make a case I think. Clearly something could be more progressive, have more in hand. But he arrives in form and should run his race, if handling heavy. It is an unknown, but at the price just worth a dart I thought. Again, i’m not breaking the piggy bank with this one. .. I will mention Star of Rory.. who was an ES qual for us LTO at Haydock I think, or one strategy anyway…he looked like the winner all the way up the straight..before ‘dogging it’ I think.. they try blinkers here… my theory is that they should try and make all with him, so that he never has to pass another horse. Maybe he just got out-stayed the last day, but I wonder if they try and lead them a merry dance. He could be up there for a long way, only to be overhauled by DK in the final strides.. with the fav long gone in front of them! 🙂
Arrowtown…(6.20 Ponty) WON 11/1 at 8s or 9s, I think another little nibble… these could add up today! … She has yet to win, but some solid place efforts, 0/7,4p on turf. I don’t know if she is a monkey or just been unlucky.. but I did not that her two best runs have come in soft for me, and she has gone very close after a break. She may be best fresh, and in soft. So, she gets that today. Well, it’s heavy, but an unknown. She gets on well with this jockey and I suspect will travel well into it. I would like to think this trip, at this track, may be ideal. But who knows. The market may guide, but at 8s/9s, that seemed an ok price. Another roll of the dice.
Instinctive... (3.20 P) in truth I didn’t look at any of these last night, but did read Nicks comment (in members’ post last evening) and on that basis alone threw something at him. His price has now gone and no doubt bookies are expecting a withdrawal of the second fav having run yesterday. His price was wrong last night and ‘i agree with Nick’. Who in their right mind would back that Russel fav at that price I have no idea… Have a word with yourself. Big weight, unproven in heavy (at this trip,some ok runs in it..but still a niggle..and esp if he may not be a1 fitness wise), returns after 160+ days (has run well after breaks but never won) and the trainer is 0/17 in the last 30 days. Now, he could hack up. He might…but come on. Given those list of questions how the hell is that a good price. (was 1/2 at one point..) Brooke will try and win this from the front I suspect. He has won on heavy. He will appreciate this drop in trip. But 7/2 may be too short now. Money seems to be flooding in….
That’s the lot today. GL with any bets as usual.
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