Members Daily Post: 27/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Redcar

4.10 –

Jabbarockie (all hncps) 30 H1 8/1 UP 

Granny Roz (micro class) 14,30 H3 G3 6/1 UP

5.15 –

Maraakib (micro going IF SOFT)

Fire Leopard (as above)

5.45 –

Barkson Ash (all hncps) 30  33/1 UP

Rapid Rager (micro going IF SOFT)

 

Goodwood

2.10 – Billy Ray (2yo) 16/1 UP

4.20 – Renfrew Street (all hncps + micro TJC+dist) I1 12/1  WON 12/1>11/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth

4.30 – Solway Dandy (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro runs) H3 G3 9/1  UP

5.05 – Presented (all hncps) I1  7/2  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6

No ‘bet of the day’, nothing I am confident enough on above to ‘tip’ in this ongoing test.

Some positive (subjective!) notes ….

I’ll mention the two in the 4.10 Redcar. Not the type of profile/quality race I want to go mad on but they tick a couple of strategies and importantly are both lightly raced- in theory they haven’t as yet run their best races, and that could be today. It looks an open enough race and 6/1 and 8/1 seemed ok to my eyes for a small dabble on each.

Jabbarokie – well he isn’t doing too much different from the last day (that could be viewed positively) where he comfortably won a weak Southwell maiden. It could be that win has done him the world of good and he can build on it in handicap company. His run at Pontefract would put you off a tad, but you can forgive any horse one shocker. Maybe the ground did for him there, or he may well have done too much too soon. In any case Alston is in decent form now which is another tick. And the horse could just be getting better with time/experience. He should blast out the gate and be up there. He may not be good enough to stay there but on only his 6th turf start, i’ll have a small play at 8/1 to find out.

Granny Roz – again lightly raced, she has been consistent if a little awkward in recent runs. They put first time blinkers on here, so at least ‘doing something different’ and they may help her concentrate in the latter stages. Barron is on fire at the moment, 5/13,7p in the last 14 days and on that basis alone may be worth some support. That 47 day break is intriguing… maybe she had a problem and may need it today, or they found something and have fixed it. Who knows. But she will blast out and be up there also. No forlorn hope and 6/1 is just about ok for me.

*

Twister… well his two below are a bit too short to my eyes but they both appear to have solid chances… the double pays around 6.5/1 and I may have had a muggy £5 double on that for interest. Those type of bets never go well for me but at least if the first one goes it will be exciting to watch Ballypoint sluice through the mud. I’m off to Liverpool’s very own ‘Oktoberfest’ on Saturday,and if this comes in it will at least pay for the beers!

*

Blessed To Empress….

Ahhh bugger.. SDS was a bit despondent post race, convinced he had them all covered and that he would have won well had a gap appeared. I tend to agree having watched it again. She blew the start but for the first time in her racing life actually settled behind horses and finished off her race. 5f is clearly her trip at the moment and she came out of the race well, hardly blowing. Without doubt she looked well handicapped on that evidence and with luck in running (or breaking and making all,which was the hope yesterday) should be going close NTO. While annoying, there were more positives than negatives there for me. By the time she runs next, hopefully the horse I have another ‘leg’ in will have hacked up in a juvenile hurdle. We can but dream of glory!

**

Re-cap, yesterday…

I haven’t had a howler like that in a while within the ‘notes’… and that deserves some kind of video response/review – if nothing else for my own benefit…and you can just laugh/or throw things at the screen 🙂

It’s ‘only’ 13 mins… includes an apology (at least one of you didn’t back either winner/cashed out, due to my write up. That is far from ideal. And a look at both winners that I was clearly lukewarm on, and what i could do better next time…

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A good start for the Twister Angles (NTD for short)… (link in Key, test zone) 

NTD

4.00 P – Arctic Gold (M1/4/5/6)

5.05 P – Ballypoint (M1/3/4/5)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW VIDEO….

(will add to KEY)…. This is an Intro To The Members’ Club video and if you are an old hand there probably isn’t much point in watching it.

Part 1: is 15 minutes… and covers some general points/what drives me/approach/background/general principles for success – oh and if you want a laugh you can hear how I lost £2650 in my first year at University. Gulp. Puts my ‘Strongly Suggested’ shenanigans into some perspective I suppose! 🙂

Part 2: is around 30 minutes… and that takes a closer look within the club, what it is, the approach, a look at the jumps strategies. Definitely worth some time if any part of the above confuses you in any way. I tried to make the video short but failed, however I didn’t want to cut any corners and I think it will be useful for newbies especially.

 

 

 

*

ELITE SQUAD….

Well, those two winners on Tuesday pulled in +26.5 points to morning prices, which just goes to show you the impact a big priced winner can have. The jumps stats have always been better at finding those generally, and with any luck that continues. In any case, since I had that idea in late June, in what is effectively 3 months of Elite Squad Qualifiers… they are now showing a profit of +86.5 points (both Flat + Jumps) to 1 point win bets at morning prices/Bog. Nearly +30 points per month. We will be doing well to keep that up, but I won’t complain with those figures to date.

+£216.25 to £2.50 win bets. 

+432.50 to £5 win bets.

 

Not bad. Small stakes. Fun. Profit. I mean, that’s a few bottles of Malbec. Or craft ale. 🙂

(some reality… they are both on or around the 16% win SR mark, which I would take all day long given the odds… but a win SR like that means every 1000 bets you will hit a losing run of between 30-45 or so. You just have to. It’s the maths. And we will hit many in between that… losing runs of 10/20 etc.  Before steadying last week, and today’s winner, the Flat, for example…hit +65, before dropping back to +30 odd, and are now on +38 or so. Do keep that in mind. There is plenty of room in those profits above to absorb such runs, but as always slow and steady is best, building up over time. Or being content at whatever stake you approach them with. Each to their own. Greed usually ends in disaster, well it did for me in 2007/8) 

On we march.

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Regarding write ups about the various es and micro system qualifers it is almost impossible to nail all the positives but getting a good many breeds confidence in your betting. If you do that the world is your oyster Josh.

    Paul 27/09/17 9:43 AM Reply


    • Oh yep in general I can’t complain! The ‘notes’ have done ok.. there is something in the mindset that may need work… knowing I am generally playing with 5s on ‘note horses’ and not the ‘pressure’ of ‘tipping’ seems to make me highlight a few more winners- I think. A few things to work on there!
      I don’t have an issue with not mentioning a winner.. that will happen again and again. The fewer the better. But it is impossible to nail them all which is why you have to live with/deal with, not backing some winners…
      the problem yesterday was appearing to go out of my way to put down a horse/talk myself-others, out of having much confidence in them. And that isn’t the purpose of section 2. I should just stick to any positive comments I wish to make.
      Josh

      Josh 27/09/17 9:48 AM Reply


  • One negative on the betting front for me is if trainer is lacking winners for 30 days as David omeara was earlier this year if this occurs I am prepared to let the horse run without my money on it. Small things like ground and class and distance I trust the trainer after all his stats suggest he knows what his doing. To many negatives in your head and you won’t back the selections

    paul bailey 27/09/17 11:11 AM Reply


    • completely agree Paul.. it is all about mindset.. those two ‘howlers’ for some unknown reason to me- I attacked wanting to find a way not to back them at all really. That is a very different mindset from looking at every horse and wanting to back them, if that makes sense. Trying to make a positive case in context of price. Certainly when it comes to the strategies,and with bigger ones ‘if in doubt have something on’ is wise I think. Then you can look at other factors and yep trainer form, esp poor form, would be up there. If a horse is a big price I may forgive recent poor form, but bet accordingly. Each to their own and you have to do what works for you etc.
      take that 4.10- you couldn’t be overly confident on those necessarily- clearly a chance can be given- but the recent trainer form (as a positive) did influence me with those two, without doubt.
      Yea you can tie yourself in knots and find reasons to never back anything! Which is why I try to fix my eyes on X price +, does mean you should be more forgiving on odd negative you may find.
      GL today.

      Josh 27/09/17 11:17 AM Reply


      • The negative for me Josh, is they are in 0% win stalls….and although i know it can jump up and hit you in the gob… i’ll pass on these…[new strategy lol]
        Cheers though.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 27/09/17 11:53 AM Reply


        • Each to their own Tony! I did have a look at draw within geegeez.. in truth I forget how far their data set goes back… but in 5f, 16+ runner races, good through to soft, there have only been 3 such races… and while ‘high’ are 0/20, when you look at per stall, you are talking 2/3 runners.. very small numbers.. and a couple of places that end… on flip side, pace wise.. it pays to be handy/lead at this track/trip, and both of those will be up there! So, you can make a positive/negative case on that front.. I din’t over think that too much. Maybe low again will dominate and a clear track bias will be evident again. We shall see 🙂

          Josh 27/09/17 12:04 PM Reply


          • They are valid points you make Josh. That’s the problem with small info to judge the whole by. On my ratings Jab…is about 9th…but Granny Roz is 2nd, so now the itchy urge is there to have a little dabble…lol

            BOL.

            Tony Mc.

            tonymc 27/09/17 3:26 PM Reply


            • Hmm, yep clear bias there I think! jabba.. well he was level at halfway, and all this side seemed to fade quite badly! Albeit on stayed in 5th… maybe 1-2 just best in race, fav wins/unexposed enough… but that did look like high was a bit of a hostage to fortune! Mid-high did ok in an earlier nursery but handicap for older horses a bit diff, less reliant on having stacks in hand.

              Josh 27/09/17 4:17 PM Reply


  • promising run looks intresting 3.45 goodwood for the micro system on free site had a lok at its entries and s bin suroor chooses this listed race as opposed to group 1 and 2 races.Nice angle in and hopefully it should run well. granny roz and jabbarockie both should run well 4.10 at redcar both lightly raced for in form trainers and both doing something slightly different from last time.

    paul 27/09/17 3:26 PM Reply


  • jabbarockie trading 19.5 on betfair that is good value win or lose for this lightly raced horse

    paul 27/09/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I had just joined the free 21 day trial for your club membership just few days before you sent the new members offer of 3 months for £7 …My question is how can I set this up if I already gave my paypal details for the monthly £12? or am I just unlucky with the timing??

    I have also joined sp2a today and look forward to receiving the tips from tomorrow. May I congratulate you on the blog with a facinating read up every day and I look forward to being a member for a long time to come.

    Regards
    Paulyc

    paul curran 27/09/17 4:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,
      Thanks for your message… I’ll email you

      Cheers… there is at least something of interest to read most days, whether it is any use is another question! 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 27/09/17 4:23 PM Reply


  • Lovely 14/1 winner from just the 2 bets from here today (wasn’t going to touch the Twister shorty filth)

    Nick Mazur 27/09/17 4:33 PM Reply


    • Yep a nice one for Strat #6, they really have kicked into gear. Top stuff. Lovely ride from Joe.. had another of my ‘just in case’ £5s on, should have given more prominence to fact she could dictate, that’s won it.. on recent form/class/going/handicap mark..was hard to make a compelling case on paper I thought! one where trusting the ratings pointer did the job there.

      Takes that Top rated, 6/1+ on the flat to +80 points I think. Nice. May start being a bit more confident with them myself, starting to rival the GG jumps approach.

      Josh 27/09/17 4:36 PM Reply


      • Yeah its nice of a strategy to not go backwards as soon as I start following them. Only the £7.50 for me today.

        BTW speaking of strategies surely the No 1 jumps one should be updated to include Inform ratings (doesnt bother me since I have been using them the same as the GGG ones for the 10/1+) Another 20/1 winner for that strategy yesterday.

        Nick Mazur 27/09/17 4:50 PM Reply


        • Yep- it will be updated when I get round to looking at them all/ updating the ratings pointers spreadsheets… need to lock myself in a dark room again. Albeit convinced that only around now the data will be worth anything.. unless you have some accurate results to hand for I1/I3 10/1+ on same basis as geegeez…

          Easier for me to flick through just Jumps I1s/I3s 10/1+ and have a look in fairness. I’m not keeping on top of those spreadsheets as usual, don’t have the time what with everything else at the moment, and they are not yet in a state, where I could even then pay someone just to do the bloody things.

          Josh

          Josh 27/09/17 4:56 PM Reply


          • I don’t I am afraid. I was up 33.7 pts from the start of May until the end of August which I think was the period there were no GGG ratings however I think I would have accidentally bet some HRB ones in there.

            Nick Mazur 27/09/17 5:21 PM Reply


  • Renfrew Street a nice winner Josh…Took 14s at 365. Only bet so far.
    Cheers…Tony Mc.

    tonymc 27/09/17 4:35 PM Reply


  • Yeah fantastic stuff Josh

    christopher jones 27/09/17 4:45 PM Reply


  • josh in the 4.10 red the draw looked to play an important part jabbarockie finished a creditable 6th from stall 17, the first five home drawn 10 or under. lightly raced he may pop up again soon perhaps with a better draw

    paul 27/09/17 6:09 PM Reply


    • Yep, i was happy to have a dabble at the odds… but that race seemed to confirm what Tony was saying. 2 of top 3 of the last were 10< also. Like you say in that context then the run of Jabbarockie could be marked up.. one to add to the tracker having finished best of high drawn.. he was level half way, and maybe then the ground bias kicked in. We shall see. He ran ok. Dangerous if he gets an easy lead or a rail. Josh

      Josh 27/09/17 6:15 PM Reply


  • i think this is the second time i have profited from backing the night before as i thought redcar would be soft and backed fire leopard and got 25.77 🙂

    martin whittle 27/09/17 6:27 PM Reply


  • Just a wee update for your records Josh – Solway Dandy was a non-runner.

    Neil 27/09/17 9:59 PM Reply


Post A Reply