Members Daily Post: 26/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Beverley 

3.15 – Kirkham  H1 I3 G1 8/1 2nd (ah,thought he had that most of the race,close)

4.25 – Pioneering ES H3 7/1  WON 15/2 

5.25 –

Dragonite (3yo+)  7/1

Inspector Norse (micro runs) H3 8/1

 

JUMPS

Warwick

2.55 – Lee Side Lady (micro TJC) I3 4/1 UP

3.30 – Fort Worth (micro runs) I1 G3 9/2 Fell 

4.35 –

Lost Legend (micro class + runs) ES I3 G1 9/2 UP

Strongly Suggested (micro class) ES I3 20/1 WON 20/1>12/1 (gulp..was due an ‘over-thinking howler!) 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No ‘tips/Bet of the day’, none on the profile I like to stick to generally for that purpose…but some notes to ignore as you please…

Kirkham arguably looks most interesting at the prices, and what being treble rated, double top, top 6/1+, he ticks a few strategy boxes to boost confidence. It is a low grade race and this one took an age to win his first race LTO, so not one i’ll be going too mad on. But there is a chance that win LTO will have boosted his confidence… I read once how winners can be showered with affection back at home, how they are suddenly the centre of attention for a few days and those that work with them daily are in a more jubilant mood, as you would expect. And that kind of thing does rub off on horses- so, maybe, just maybe, he has turned a corner. There are enough ok runs on soft for me not to be put off, it is a question,but 8s allows the play. And he should race prominently enough. He may have been in the right position LTO off a slow pace- but I can’t really be over thinking a horse too much at that price, with those ratings pointers next to his name.

Lost Legend… I will have a dabble at 9/2, I think that is just about ok. He seems to have found some form again and Jonjo has managed to turn him into a stayer it seems, having been a 20f horse all his career. Maybe as he has got older he is just more of a one paced galloper. The soft may have just stretched him the last day and this slightly better ground should help. The 58 days rest is a tiny niggle, but only that. In any case, he is a chaser in form and that can count for plenty. He has won off much higher marks and while he is getting older, his mark shouldn’t be a problem. The race is full of older horses so I am not as fussed about that as I would usually be.  9/2 is just about ok, I wouldn’t want shorter, but hopefully he can build on Jonjo’s impressive C4 stats here in recent years. (9/36,13 p, +48 BFSP)

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I am personally not jumping up and down to back anything else really… as always don’t be put off by the following, esp if you just back strategies systematically… but as you know I like to take a view, esp on confidence and how that translates to staking. That is very subjective, but I get more satisfaction that way, and it keeps the brain ticking over. (annoying when you get it wrong of course,or don’t have as much on a decent winner as you could have done, but that’s how I like to play the game)… and on the ES front, they are trainer based angles and nothing to do with the actual horse…

Pioneering… i’m a bit on the fence, and he may get something, possibly.. a crisp £5 just in case… but he runs on soft for the first time, he drops in trip which doesn’t look to be a positive and he moves up in class. He won LTO pretty much from the front off a steady pace. I don’t think he will be able to lead here. Maybe if he relishes soft then his extra stamina will come into play. And he is still lightly raced. He is 7s, so I don’t want to be too dismissive albeit I was more negative than positive on him. We shall see if I have that right.

Strongly Suggested… at this moment in time I have nothing on him.. knowing me i’ll get nervous a few mins before and throw £2.50 at him BFSP! He is 0/24,1p in handicaps when sent off bigger than 8/1 SP, he is 0/16,0p in handicaps Sept-Dec and you are asking a 10 year old to do something new – stay this trip. He also looks woefully out of form. He is the kind of winner that would leave me bemused and scratching my head. So, we shall see. My head just says no. And so does my gut. And while it would be annoying, I could live with him winning carrying none of my money. Setting myself up for a fall here… (indeed I was… after Pioneering I may have had a bit more than £2.5 but not much.. well £5 at 17.5 BFSP… usual ES stake is £10… scratching my head! And if any of that above has put you off backing him/having usual stake on.. you have permission to swear in the comments! I should just stick to ‘positives’ Bloody Jonjo :)… blimey) 

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That’s the lot today. Hopefully you had a gander at the free post… (click ‘Home’ when logged into members area and you’ll see all posts in one place).. if you see a 3m+ handicap chase, C4+ from now on, it’s highly likely i’ll have had a good look at it. They are my ‘tipping’ race of choice… in any case it is looking like job done with the selection, who was widely available at 8s for an age, and is generally 11/2, 5/1 now. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went off fav, but 8/1, as per vid, was 2/3 points too big, when everything else looked the right price. I have thrown a saver at the Twister qualifier below, to cover my stake,as you can make a case for him. 5s felt ok, rather than generous.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TWISTON-DAVIES (link to research in Key, test zone)

3.30 Warw- Belmount (M1 + M4) WON 5/1>3/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: Advised strategy links in Key have been updated.

Hopefully you backed a winner or two.

FLAT- Strategy #6 is starting to look tasty, having hit the 20 winners mark, Top Rated 6/1+ on morning prices (said price I put next to horse), SP irrelevant. With a 14% win SR that will be a bumpy ride, but it is finding decent priced winners and that +68 points is the important figure. And that isn’t skewed by any monster, 33/1+ winners. Another ‘way in’ in any case.

if you’d backed all 6 strategies, every horse, inc multiple quals (ie horse hit 2 or more strategies)… 22 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / +23.5 points.

Anyway, as always flick through the results if you wish and use the info how you please.

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Blessed To Empress…

‘my’ horse (2.5% of her) runs at Lingfield in the 3.40. I have had a little nibble at 8s. These are ideal conditions really and there is no excuse on paper. She has a win in her from this mark. 5f on the AW looks to be her thing at the moment. She needed the run at Notts in the end, which combined with the trip just took it’s toll. But Kirby was positive after that. As was Murphy after Brighton- we wanted decent ground but that was awful come race time, definitely on the soft side. Again that combined with the trip just stretched her I think. I personally don’t think she has learnt to race properly yet. She is a bit of a madam , can play up pre race, and does like to pull. It may be no surprise that when she won first time up she made all. There is a chance being surrounded by horses just sparks her up. There are a few front runners in this so we shall see how she goes. I don’t think she will be able to dominate. We shall see. I’m hoping for a better showing.

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INTRO VIDEO… I do plan to record an introductory video for the Members’ Club for any newbies, and I need to update welcome info now we are moving into the Jumps etc. With any luck I get that done today. I’ll try and keep it short!! 🙂

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Evening Josh, I see SDS is booked to ride yours tomorrow. All things considered 13/2 looks a decent price?
    Cheers
    Doug

    dougandnicky 25/09/17 10:05 PM Reply


    • Yep… I mean if I didn’t own a share I’m not sure I’d be playing!! And I probably have more on that Longsdon chaser in the free post! 13/2 ok,8s was tad better. If she was only front runner I’d be more bullish. She needs to show more tomorrow I think. Will know within 1f, just wish she would learn to settle when not leading. Only young though.

      Josh 25/09/17 10:18 PM Reply


      • I think SDS rode her last time…it was a bad race….but she looks like she has the potential to improve…so a dabble is on the cards…I got 8s.

        tonymc 25/09/17 10:23 PM Reply


  • The Skelton horse Keeping Time W 4.05 was 20/1 at 8.30 now 10s and lower!

    rogerwyndham 26/09/17 9:12 AM Reply


    • Indeed, Nick put him up in his comment on free post last night at 20s… all hope seems to be on the tongue tie..maybe they have put that on at home and seen a completely different horse/got more work into her. That would be the reason for any improvement. I can’t think it takes too much money at this hour to move that price, but you’d have to think that may be linked to connections. We shall see if it continues, or walks pre race. Interesting!

      Josh 26/09/17 9:21 AM Reply


  • Think we have the Longsdon September angle covered 🙂 , so i thought to look elsewhere today …Ronnie Lawson war 2.25 , there has been some interest in the market , plenty of “Blue” on oddschecker … Tongue tie fitted caught my eye … this horse has not been finishing its races … had a decent break from the track and is a smashing jumper , if it travels as well today then at worst will be an easy trade in running as it should make all… into 13/2 now

    joners 26/09/17 10:34 AM Reply


  • B to Empress got boxed out after making its move. Gamble of the race.

    Mike

    mickeydee 26/09/17 3:47 PM Reply


    • Yea, re-mortgaged for that one haha- she blew the start annoyingly…plan was to blindfold but couldn’t as went in last- not sure why went in last/rules etc…anyway, she can sit back in stalls/do a little jig…then she is ok. I suspect she has done that just as they opened! Plan was to be up there… And then SDS has to take his medicine, try luck inside, or risk losing ground/going wide etc. Easy with hindsight.
      While annoying, i am pleased to see her finish off her race from behind… first time she has ever done that. 5f clearly the trip, and given way she travelled/ran, you’d think her turn may not be far away. Annoying, but that’s racing. She goes very close there if breaking on terms.
      Josh

      Josh 26/09/17 3:58 PM Reply


  • Hopefully you threw that 2.50 on Strongly Suggested Josh.

    gearoid180468 26/09/17 4:43 PM Reply


    • Went to £5 after Pioneering left me annoyed haha- usual ES stake £10, I haven’t had that on either of those.. but that’s how it goes.. I will have saved plenty.. some wins make little sense.. but was clear he was going close a long way from home. Rare I have nothing on an ES. That’s annoying, and pleasing, all in equal measure!!

      Josh 26/09/17 4:47 PM Reply


  • Go Coleman go! This just shows why systematic is the way to go. Had exactly £12.5 more on that than I would have if I actually looked at the race myself!

    Nick Mazur 26/09/17 4:46 PM Reply


    • I had £5 less on him than if I hadn’t have bothered looking at the race haha.
      Good fun. I haven’t made a howler like that in a while in truth, was due one!

      Josh 26/09/17 4:48 PM Reply


      • Yeah in fairness my decision making on a personal level has been off today (luckily SP2A tipped up Intense Style given I dismissed him after tipping him up LTO) so nice of everything else to do well here.

        Nick Mazur 26/09/17 4:56 PM Reply


  • The message to take away for the jumps is to not leave a big priced one unbacked,even at minimum stakes you wont be kicking yourself

    gearoid180468 26/09/17 4:57 PM Reply


    • Given how my judgement has gone I may have to have a dabble on the 5.25 haha.
      Yep, that is very wise for the advised strategies at least.. and maybe some of the others!

      Josh 26/09/17 5:07 PM Reply


  • great stuff josh for me its about following the horses your systems throw up been betting along while but pound for pound price wise one of the best .thought pioneering was a fair bet today how the fav was that short i dont no.

    paul 26/09/17 5:19 PM Reply


  • Another nice winner for the jumps strategy.

    I keep saying I’m going to increase to full point from half point stakes in these but the historic strike rate majes me wary of a big losing run.

    James Cross 26/09/17 5:22 PM Reply


    • Yep another one for ES, I would like to think that over time they may average out at 20% win SR, but not there yet… and both flat + jumps settled on around 16% at moment… that kind of SR means a losing run of between 30-40 WILL happen at some point.. I mean the flat did shed 30 points (hit 65 before coming back down,but jumps stepped in at that time) before steadying last week, and another one today. You can always go up by half… just have to do what makes you comfortable, and patience usually rewarded. Plenty of time. As long as you are happy with current progress it is a good position to be in… majority of punters would like to have the conundrum of whether to up stakes! 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 26/09/17 5:27 PM Reply


  • missed the early price on strongly suggested but still got 17.5 bsp, 11.5 on pioneering was nice though as it was a 3pt bet.
    fort worth would have probably won if not falling

    martin whittle 26/09/17 5:51 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Martin… not so sure about FW… think Twisters was just starting to motor past, and fall may have been due to tiredness kicking in. Possibly. But you never know. All insignificant mind as the poor bugger lost his life with that fall. Horrid game at times.

      Josh 26/09/17 5:52 PM Reply


  • josh am like an excited kid waiting for tomorrows postings from you cant wait sorry to push you

    paul 26/09/17 6:25 PM Reply


    • Your wish is my command.. a bit later than usual.. i’ve been staring out the window for a time! 🙂 (i haven’t haha)

      Josh 26/09/17 6:31 PM Reply


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