Free Daily Post: 23/09/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

(the 6 trainers are 19/90,+63 BFSP in 2017 to date, Gosden -7.5 so far…due a good end to the year…)

2.00 Newm – Crowned Eagle (any odds)

4.35 Newb – Weekender (any odds)

5.30 Newm – Blending (any odds)

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Just the above and a guest preview/tips from SP2A again below….

GUEST TIPS…

 

ELITE SERVICE –

Newbury 4.00 3 Priceless – 1 point each way @ 10/1 (WH/Lads/Coral/PP odds to 4th + SkyBet to 5th)

 

THE ADVISOR –

Newmarket 3.10 18 Coeur De Lion – 1 point each way @ 6/1

 

We almost had another nice double figure winner for the Daily Tips yesterday with On Fire just missing out at 10/1; the Racing Post commented that “On Fire was the moral victor” of the race at it met interference at the 2 Furlong pole and just failed to get up. I don’t wholly subscribe to that view as I believe luck evens out, we won one the day before on the nod, we lost one today similarly and that’s racing. At Newbury Grapevine and Balmoral Castle ran well enough; not beaten far in a bunch finish, most upset by not picking the best of the older horses with Bredon a fine winner at nice odds and in hindsight (what a great thing it is) better handicapped than may have been apparent.

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The loss of the whole 3 days at Ayr has left a massive hole in the Fixtures for tomorrow with The Gold and Silver Cup earmarked for Elite Service tips and the other main races targeted, we had planned by the Daily Tipsters. The ramifications of what has occurred at Ayr are likely to rumble on, as you would expect in this internet age, there have been some extreme views aired, and the usual conspiracy codswallop. My own view is that it is a freak occurrence that could not have been foreseen, it seems that with the water table very high after a very wet winter, a drain has not been able to cope and water is seeping from the water table. leaving a patch of false ground. It covers the Flat and NH tracks so the possible compromise of running down the NH straight, can’t be used. All of the Trainers say the Course is otherwise in outstanding condition, hopefully a solution and a spare slot can be found in the calendar for October, if not maybe next Spring, as the income is vital to The Course. Why not run The Gold/Silver Cups on Scottish Grand National Day?

With fewer options and some decidedly moderate fare away from Newbury and Newmarket we will focus on 2 races. ELITE -: The Sprint Course at Newbury yesterday over 5-7 Furlongs showed them coming to the Stands side and racing middle to stands side throughout. The draw here usually favours those in the middle and on drying ground; it is hard to look past middle to high drawn horses. Muthmir is of great interest but has become a bridesmaid horse and at the current odds, a huge danger but not real value. With the perceived draw bias, I am not inclined to go in “mob handed”, I did look closely at Goldream but I do think it is more of a Spring and early summer horse; whose form can deteriorate as the season goes on. He is though with Muthmir, a live danger. My idea of the winner though is PRICELESS. She has a great cv and even though disappointing at times this year is on a very nice mark as a result. A draw in stall 16 looks to be a big asset; based on today and one other piece of form can’t be under-estimated.

PRICELESS is a Filly who has won in September in 2015 and 2016, I do like to follow fillies in months in which they have shown they can win and this one has a great chance on that basis off this mark and draw and the 10/1 looks a decent each way price with Hills; Ladbrokes; Corals and Paddy Power going odds to 4th place and Sky to 5th

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THE ADVISOR – The Cesarewitch Trial is a typically competitive race an the first conundrum is who can stay the trip, who is well handicapped and who can handle the big field. However, being a “Trial” there is also one other key ingredient.

There are some here who will simply be looking to have a good run in order to ensure they are fit and tuned up for the  actual race later on in The Autumn. The types who will be looking to protect handicap marks rather than enhance them.

There are then those who actually need a big run and a place at least to get an handicap hike to qualify for the big race.

The most progressive horse and the biggest potential improver in the race is Alan King’s COEUR DE LION; he really needs to win and get an 8-10lbs hike to qualify for the big race and if he does that, with expected progression he would be a live contender on the big day. My logic is therefore simple, back the horse who “needs” to win rather than pick a horse who may not “want” to win, as by doing so, they could effectively compromise their chances in the Cesarewitch  itself in a few weeks time. With enhanced odds the 6/1 does not look skinny and is actually cracking e/w value.

 

**

 

GL with any bets.

Don’t forget you can still take SP2A up on their special offer HERE>>>

(+170 points to BFSP, 1 point win bets, in the previous 3 months…already a few points up in the last few days. And if Ian and his team don’t turn a profit in the next three months, you are entitled to a full refund)

Josh

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Golf,superb 4 star hotel
    Carlyon Bay Hotel, carlyonbay.com
    All rates include one round of golf on a championship course per person per night.
    Recommend dinner,room and breakfast package,food is excellent.
    Click on and have a look,i have stayed here twice 14 nights in all so relaxing.
    Also included Driving Range,9 hole pitch and put,9 hole putting green by the terrace,
    Spa,indoor and outdoor pool,tennis courts and much more,superb value and friendly staff.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 22/09/17 7:23 PM Reply


    • Have you typed this thinking you were logged on to Tripadvisor Colin? 😉

      JamesP 22/09/17 7:41 PM Reply


      • Hi James P
        Looks like it but the place holds special memories and for any golfer the facilities and hotel are outstanding

        colin leafe 22/09/17 8:00 PM Reply


  • Law and Order, 3.25 Nb, has been put up in a number of places. I got the 20/1 but it is now shortening. I also like Shabbah in the same race, 25/1.
    I would have thought that Coeur De Lion needs to win, 3.10 Nkt, to get into the Cesarewich proper? I am on at 6/1.
    Poets Princess, 4.55 Nkt. seems to be value at 20/1 on its best form.
    Scarlet Dragon looks solid each way, 2.15 Nb, 8/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 22/09/17 7:51 PM Reply


    • Agree with you 100% Martin about CDL has to win to get in to big race and a few of the more fancied ones will actually be protecting marks to give them optimum chance in big race and using tomorrow to keep/gain fitness. CDL likely to be one of our tips tomorrow so suggest anyone grabs the best price asap!

      Ian SP2A 22/09/17 8:53 PM Reply


  • One that came up in my systems is Swiss Marlin in the 2.25 @ Catterick.
    Trainer’s 2YO’s in great form, 3 winners from last 7 runners. Trainer also in red hot form overall 6 winners from the last 19 in the last 14 days. Looks good on breeding as well, this one is in a line through Invincible Spirit, who’s progeny have a 40% win strike rate in Good to Soft over C&D, 4/10, 7 places. Only its second start and didn’t pull up any trees on debut, but that was on the AW and maybe a primer for here as the trainer has a decent record at the track: 22% win, 46% place SR overall in the last 2 years and has had a few 2YO winners here over the years, including one earlier this month. Jockey booking the only negative I can see, not a great s/r between them, but at 16s i think its worth a play.

    JamesP 23/09/17 12:07 AM Reply


    • So what is the system James?

      Martin Colwell 23/09/17 7:50 AM Reply


      • It’s more of a shortlisting system rather than one to follow blind, mostly because HRB doesn’t have the capability to do what I want automatically, but I look for trainers who have a high win strike at the track (>20%) and also a high strike rate with their 2 year olds at the track in the same month of the year. If there is minimal data I also look to see across all tracks at this time of the year – its my belief that trainers target their 2YO’s to run well in certain months and at certain tracks, more so than they do with their older horses. As they are 2 year olds and so don’t have much form to go by I also look at the sire’s record over C&D and going and also look to see how the trainers 2 year olds and horses are running in general. I’ll then only select if these factors come back positively.

        Unfortunately this takes a bit of work and as far as i can see the rules in HRB v4 don’t work together to enable this to be automated.

        JamesP 23/09/17 9:54 AM Reply


        • Thanks for that James, well explained. Good luck with it. One thing I would say about the investment of time, which I have learnt over the years, is if something does not work either tweak it or give it up. Especially if you have a full time job as well. My pet hate is the study of form for hours. If it was that easy someone would have cracked it years ago. The best approach I find, and I know others on this site do the same, look for angles, trainers, ground conditions the price of the horse and whether it is value. You dont have to fancy the horse but you do need an angle and you do need value in its price. I find that pays but I still spend 8 hours per day doing it to make a living from betting (not just horse racing). I am sure you do some of this anyway.

          martin colwell 23/09/17 10:25 AM Reply


        • Have you tried the digger function JamesP?

          Chris Albin 23/09/17 10:38 AM Reply


          • Chris means on HRB and not the coding function in programming languages (which HRB may be using in a specific area of the site anyway).

            martin colwell 23/09/17 10:45 AM Reply


            • Exactly! thanks Martin 😉

              Chris Albin 23/09/17 11:59 AM Reply


            • Yeah I had played with it briefly and it didn’t seem to do what I needed to, but I could of been using it wrong so I’ll have another go. Thanks both

              JamesP 23/09/17 12:14 PM Reply


  • 6:40 Wolverhampton

    Four Dragons 16/1

    Dascombe – Kingscote

    My way in was Dragon Pulse progeny racing over 5f-7f on polytrack have a great record although the runs are few and far between, sure enough last time she ran on poly at wolves she won comfortably that was 7 runs ago, since then shes won a cl5 2yo HC at catterick, 5 of 8 in a class 2 2yoHC on ground too soft, then won a class 5 haydock 2yo hc at a canter to my eye. The last two runs are probably why shes the price she is, but she got no run at chester and even when she did try to make ground around the bend she ran into the back of two horses, and lastly at haydock on soft ground which doesn’t suit her and she looked very poor but for me at 16/1 and back on the polytrack im hopig for a big run, at those odds we can afford to go each way.

    latest figures I had from a gent that used to post here were,

    Dragon Pulse progeny racing over 5f-7f on polytrack 11 runs 6 wins 9 places 54.55%win SR 81.82% place SR

    now that was a little while ago and is a small sample but its a nice angle, Similar one is War Front progeny at dundalk 7f-1m2f Red Avenger went in a good few months ago 3 times there 16/1 7/1 9/2

    Anyway hoping for a decent run! GL gents…

    Jack 23/09/17 1:41 AM Reply


    • Into 8s now anyone on?!

      Jack 23/09/17 11:51 AM Reply


      • I’m on, could do with a win hit the bar with a couple today

        JamesP 23/09/17 6:25 PM Reply


  • Was out at a wedding all day yesterday so no time for a proper look but I thought Smullen coming over to ride a couple for Hugo Palmer at Newbury was interesting and have thrown a cheeky £5 ew on both. (Architecture 14:15 and Anythingtoday 15:25)

    Nick Mazur 23/09/17 10:48 AM Reply


  • Good luck all. Some cracking write ups as always. Just arrived in Nottingham for a pals Bday… didn’t have time to take a proper look at much and as it stands a no betting day for me. GL with any bets.

    Josh 23/09/17 12:59 PM Reply


  • Sorry really late post
    Anyone else spotted GERTONI 1.50 NAVAN?
    Trainer
    +60days 5-2-2, 40%w/p for +16
    Distance 11-3- 3, 27% for+ 32
    Hurdles 19-5-5,26% for +47.
    Right jockey to boot it home
    200/1 bet365 at time of writing

    jarrodholmes68 23/09/17 1:20 PM Reply


    • The rave has 30 runners and is a maiden hurdle. Kamikaze betting race. Will have £2 on at 50/1 +. Cheers.

      martin colwell 23/09/17 1:32 PM Reply


      • Nice little move before the off Martin!

        jarrodholmes68 23/09/17 1:48 PM Reply


        • I had my £2 on at 1,000. Carnage of a race but the winner won it well. The selection did not sadly.

          martin colwell 23/09/17 2:51 PM Reply


  • Alan King is one of my favourite Trainers, not only that he is a genuinely nice bloke who is open and affable and will if you approach him in the right way make time for a chat.

    A shame therefore yesterday that Coeur De Lion did not win, it certainly came to win the race but was beaten in the finish by stablemate Who Dares Wins.

    Not the ideal result for us as it would have been a nice winner but for the Yard potentially a nightmare scenario that could cost a top prize.

    Who Dares Wins is now likely to get a 6-8lbs penalty that will expose what was clearly a nice mark; whereas Coeur De Lion; may not get the handicap hike it needed to get in to the race; which would be a great shame.

    At least no one can level the “non trier” allegation though at AK ; which may be scant consolation for him and us!

    Ian SP2A 24/09/17 11:11 AM Reply


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