Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers
(the 6 trainers are 19/90,+63 BFSP in 2017 to date, Gosden -7.5 so far…due a good end to the year…)
2.00 Newm – Crowned Eagle (any odds)
4.35 Newb – Weekender (any odds)
5.30 Newm – Blending (any odds)
Just the above and a guest preview/tips from SP2A again below….
ELITE SERVICE –
Newbury 4.00 3 Priceless – 1 point each way @ 10/1 (WH/Lads/Coral/PP odds to 4th + SkyBet to 5th)
THE ADVISOR –
Newmarket 3.10 18 Coeur De Lion – 1 point each way @ 6/1
We almost had another nice double figure winner for the Daily Tips yesterday with On Fire just missing out at 10/1; the Racing Post commented that “On Fire was the moral victor” of the race at it met interference at the 2 Furlong pole and just failed to get up. I don’t wholly subscribe to that view as I believe luck evens out, we won one the day before on the nod, we lost one today similarly and that’s racing. At Newbury Grapevine and Balmoral Castle ran well enough; not beaten far in a bunch finish, most upset by not picking the best of the older horses with Bredon a fine winner at nice odds and in hindsight (what a great thing it is) better handicapped than may have been apparent.
The loss of the whole 3 days at Ayr has left a massive hole in the Fixtures for tomorrow with The Gold and Silver Cup earmarked for Elite Service tips and the other main races targeted, we had planned by the Daily Tipsters. The ramifications of what has occurred at Ayr are likely to rumble on, as you would expect in this internet age, there have been some extreme views aired, and the usual conspiracy codswallop. My own view is that it is a freak occurrence that could not have been foreseen, it seems that with the water table very high after a very wet winter, a drain has not been able to cope and water is seeping from the water table. leaving a patch of false ground. It covers the Flat and NH tracks so the possible compromise of running down the NH straight, can’t be used. All of the Trainers say the Course is otherwise in outstanding condition, hopefully a solution and a spare slot can be found in the calendar for October, if not maybe next Spring, as the income is vital to The Course. Why not run The Gold/Silver Cups on Scottish Grand National Day?
With fewer options and some decidedly moderate fare away from Newbury and Newmarket we will focus on 2 races. ELITE -: The Sprint Course at Newbury yesterday over 5-7 Furlongs showed them coming to the Stands side and racing middle to stands side throughout. The draw here usually favours those in the middle and on drying ground; it is hard to look past middle to high drawn horses. Muthmir is of great interest but has become a bridesmaid horse and at the current odds, a huge danger but not real value. With the perceived draw bias, I am not inclined to go in “mob handed”, I did look closely at Goldream but I do think it is more of a Spring and early summer horse; whose form can deteriorate as the season goes on. He is though with Muthmir, a live danger. My idea of the winner though is PRICELESS. She has a great cv and even though disappointing at times this year is on a very nice mark as a result. A draw in stall 16 looks to be a big asset; based on today and one other piece of form can’t be under-estimated.
PRICELESS is a Filly who has won in September in 2015 and 2016, I do like to follow fillies in months in which they have shown they can win and this one has a great chance on that basis off this mark and draw and the 10/1 looks a decent each way price with Hills; Ladbrokes; Corals and Paddy Power going odds to 4th place and Sky to 5th
THE ADVISOR – The Cesarewitch Trial is a typically competitive race an the first conundrum is who can stay the trip, who is well handicapped and who can handle the big field. However, being a “Trial” there is also one other key ingredient.
There are some here who will simply be looking to have a good run in order to ensure they are fit and tuned up for the actual race later on in The Autumn. The types who will be looking to protect handicap marks rather than enhance them.
There are then those who actually need a big run and a place at least to get an handicap hike to qualify for the big race.
The most progressive horse and the biggest potential improver in the race is Alan King’s COEUR DE LION; he really needs to win and get an 8-10lbs hike to qualify for the big race and if he does that, with expected progression he would be a live contender on the big day. My logic is therefore simple, back the horse who “needs” to win rather than pick a horse who may not “want” to win, as by doing so, they could effectively compromise their chances in the Cesarewitch itself in a few weeks time. With enhanced odds the 6/1 does not look skinny and is actually cracking e/w value.
GL with any bets.
(+170 points to BFSP, 1 point win bets, in the previous 3 months…already a few points up in the last few days. And if Ian and his team don’t turn a profit in the next three months, you are entitled to a full refund)