Members Daily Post: 22/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

(all ratings pointers complete, only one horse hits anything on that front…) 

 

FLAT 

Newbury 

5.05 – Crushed (micro dist+ runs) 14,30  H1  10/3

 

Ayr ABANDONED (all very odd, not much hope for Saturday at this rate) 

3.50 –

Adams’ Ale (3yo+)

Inexes (3yo+)

B Fifty Two (3yo+)

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

4.10 –

Sahalin (hncp hurdle) 33/1 UP

Taroum (hncp hurdle) 14/1 4th 16/1

Virginia Chick (micro handicap h debut) 25/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Bonus 

2.15 DownP – Freedom Square (hncp h + micro age) ES 10/1 UP 9/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

None.

Well it looks like a fairly quiet day ahead.. and I will mention two positively..to a point…

Crushed… well I may now curse this one but on the basis of having a quick flick through the oppo I think 10/3 may be ok. It is a big field but most in here look woefully out of form and arguably Crushed is the only proper progressive horse in the race, that arrives in form. The yard is flying and a switch to front running did the trick the last day. Cox will be able to get him prominent here and he may even get his own way again. Now he isn’t moving up/down in trip, and he is moving up in class. Not really doing too much different on the positive side of things…he will need to improve but that was a 3yo only handicap and he gets the allowances etc here. What with this useful jockeys claim he has nothing on his back. Rarely do I talk myself into a bet at that end of the market but on a quiet day I may well have done. Crushed may now be cursed, we shall see! He should run his race.

 

Freedom Square… another ES that I can’t be too bullish on but what is a shocker of a race I will have a small play. I have a niggle over the ground, but he hasn’t proved he can’t win on soft just yet. This is his third run for the yard and when he qualified here two starts ago there was some promise. A sweeping move from the back took him into contention before then fading/doing very little. The booking of Fox took the eye, given trainer/jockey are 9/29,15p, +28 in handicap hurdles here last 5 years, 6/15,9p at this distance here, +26. There is a small chance they change tactics and try and make all, just to mix it up a bit. You generally want to be prominent around this track. So, at 10s, I will have a stab. It is a poor race. He could win. He could do very little. I’d like to see some support for him, when this yard fancies one, they fancy one. 20/1>7/2 winner for us on 17th June (Ashjan)… a week or so before I had the ES idea, of which he would have been a qualifier! Luckily he was unexposed/doing something different,and I think a few of us had a nibble.

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Not to be negative, and with the threat of leaving egg on my face… but the 4.10 Newton Abbot…

I still don’t think any of the jumps stats have had a winner that on morning prices was bigger than 25/1 and I could live with Sahalin winning. He looks moderate to me. Flint is 0/53,3p with handicap hurdlers sent off 22/1+ in his career. So, unless some support, I won’t even consider changing my mind. 14/1-20/1 are only 2/76.

Virginia Chick makes handicap hurdle debut which would normally spark some interest..but he looks very moderate and I would want to see market support. That would indicate this has been a plot and they have played the game (no problems there) by getting a low handicap mark. I just dont think he is very good. Williams, with handicap hurdlers in the 22/1-40/1 SP range is 5/225,13 places.. pretty hard to find. 0/43,1p, 50/1+ .

Taroum – I am not sure why this 10 yo should suddenly bounce back into form here, and he steps back up to C4. He is just the kind of horse I can live with winning, without carrying any of my money. It’s the younger/doing something different brigade that are most annoying when you miss them at a price, but he isn’t that.

That’s why I put myself of those…I try to stay positive on these notes most of the time, but that is what’s on my notes, so do with it as you please. One of them may leave me feeling iffy, and if you were going to throw something at them, do not let any of that put you off a nibble.

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That’s the lot for today.

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Recap…

La Fritillaire kept the notes ticking over and was a winner for ‘strategy #6’ which is still in the ‘monitoring’ pile, (top rated, 6/1+ on morning prices) but those returns are starting to look solid. A decent ‘way in’ anyway. Given the odds that win SR will never be massive but it doesn’t need to be. Profit is the name of the game. Anyway, SHE, i kept calling her a he, received a superb ride, showed guts and stayed on well. Just. A nose at the line. She was an example of a horse not proving she didn’t handle soft. Yes her best form was on a decent surface but she had hardly raced on soft,and never at Ponte over her fav distances, so you couldn’t say with certainty that she wouldn’t out-run her odds. And that’s why you want a price. She kept the ‘notes’ ticking along, around +41.5 points for the month if backing the lot to level stakes. That may not be advised given I have just looked at this month, but I am more pleased in my own mind that I seem to be focusing on enough of the right ones. And that isn’t sustainable I don’t think… a losing run will be ushered in soon whereby I may give half of that back, or more, before going on another spree.

I think the soft ground did for the other two (I wasn’t expecting it to go that soft,that quickly. Got that wrong). Why they didn’t let sandra’s secret try and make all I have no idea. She hated being behind horses. Maybe given the ground they just decided to keep her ticking over and save her for another day. Back to C5 making all around Ponte before the season is out with any luck. Ground dependent.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

AYR GOLD CUP MEETING

Short Report: READ HERE>>>>

 

Micro Qualifiers

(to use as guide/starting point….) 

PLEASE NOTE: I have added some ratings pointers, as per key above, to the horses below. Remember these are NOTHING to do with the advised strategies which are only concerned with horses listed in Section 1. The horses below qualify against the ‘big meeting notes’ which is the link in the ‘short report’ above. They have nothing to do with the Trainer Track Profiles stats packs, which form the basis of all qualifiers in Section 1. The ratings pointers below are simply intended to help add more info and help with any further analysis you may do. 

 

AYR ABANDONED

Fahey (8/1<)

2.10 – Cameo Star / Lucky Lucky Man / Zap H3

3.50 – Grandads World / Paddy Power

5.25 – La Sioux  H1

 

Dalgleish (12/1< strong guide) 

4.20 – Frederic H3

 

Burke (14/1<) 

1.40 – Recks

3.15 – Simmie G3

5.25 – Used To be

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Just want to throw up Charlie Longsdon & his September record again ,
    2014: 7 from 11(64%)
    – 2015: 5 from 12 (42%)
    – 2016: 7 from 27 (26%
    Been plenty of interest in Azure Fly 4.45 N.A

    joners 22/09/17 7:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Joners
      I have been a bit more cautious this year with the new stable jockey Jonathan Burke, and he has only had the one winner since coming over in July. That’s not me suggesting he is a bad jock, it was more of the unknown and settling in. The stable are still 2.6 pts in profit for the month with 3/13 so far.

      Chris R

      broadsword 22/09/17 8:17 AM Reply


    • Good shout on azure fly. Well done.

      Warren bottomley 22/09/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • Ayr off on Saturday,roll on the jumpers when we are not worried about a bit of mud.BoB

    greyhound 22/09/17 9:59 AM Reply


    • Quite. Bring on the mud! A great shame, that is one of my fav flat days of the year I think. They have ballsed up somewhere on the drainage or something. That is a costly error.

      Plumpton and Uttox to look forward to on Sunday, just about to research the new TTP stats for those.

      Josh 22/09/17 10:29 AM Reply


  • hope your wrong about Sahalin Josh got 55.0 on BF last night now trading @28.0

    martin whittle 22/09/17 11:52 AM Reply


    • I am wrong often enough Martin! And I know you can’t resist those prices. I would want to see some support..if he comes under 22/1 I may take a look… I mean that was his first handicap hurdle run the last day. Albeit it was awful. Drop slightly in trip, but he needs to find more from somewhere. And this is a C4. Talked myself out of him,and trainer odds stats were final nail. But we shall see! At least he is lightly raced,and with those types you always have hope. GL

      Josh 22/09/17 12:01 PM Reply


  • i wonder if ITV will screen some of Newmarket tomorrow now that Ayr has been abandoned, couple of nice races they could show.

    martin whittle 22/09/17 11:54 AM Reply


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